You don't need to use a top 2 pick to get a clearance winner.

But try picking up a star key forward outside the top 10. I don't think you'll find many.

Star key forwards-

Brown - Father son

Riewoldt - 1

Pavlich - 3

Franklin - 5

Hall - 12

Fevola - 30s

Richardson - Father son

Lloyd - Compensation

Lucas - 5

Given this, only Fevola was outside the top 12 in the draft. And only 2 out of 9 were outside the top 5!!

It just shows that if you want a star key forward then you have to pony up early when you have the chance.

Bear in mind as well, Axis, that Fevola was selected in a draft when only one 17yo could be taken by each club, so in essence he was rated 8th from memory of his year group that year.

Good point. OK well let's say that, in a draft like we have these days, Fevola was ranked at 12 like Hall then we could say that all star forwards in the AFL in 2008 have been rated in the top dozen players of their draft year.

Hmmmmm............

I'm not great at drafting issues, and don't pretend to know much about it, but could this be because a key forward can be seen as more of a quick fix?

Drafting a midfielder always seems to carry the issues of; how quick is he, how well can he break a tag, how much endurance, can he play forward or back as well, can he mark, can he tackle, what's his work rate like etc.

Forwards on the other hand always seem to generate talk of, will kick lots of goals, can mark and kick.

Perhaps there has been a perception that a young gun forward is more likely to turn into a good AFL forward and as such must be taken early.

ummm no. rich will go above watts. the fact that he is not playing well in the u18 champs is irrelevant. cotchin played just as poorly last season and was picked up number 2 and is now playing good footy.

Who did you like Pavlich or Fiora?

You don't need to use a top 2 pick to get a clearance winner.

But try picking up a star key forward outside the top 10. I don't think you'll find many.

Star key forwards-

Brown - Father son

Riewoldt - 1

Pavlich - 3

Franklin - 5

Hall - 12

Fevola - 30s

Richardson - Father son

Lloyd - Compensation

Lucas - 5

Given this, only Fevola was outside the top 12 in the draft. And only 2 out of 9 were outside the top 5!!

It just shows that if you want a star key forward then you have to pony up early when you have the chance.

Pav was pick 4.

ben mckinley also kicked bags of goals when playing at the u18 champs..and from memory was awarded Vic Metros best player...i wouldnt spend a top pick on ben mckinley either, depsite being a handy player.

You don't need to use a top 2 pick to get a clearance winner.

But try picking up a star key forward outside the top 10. I don't think you'll find many.

Star key forwards-

Brown - Father son

Riewoldt - 1

Pavlich - 3

Franklin - 5

Hall - 12

Fevola - 30s

Richardson - Father son

Lloyd - Compensation

Lucas - 5

Given this, only Fevola was outside the top 12 in the draft. And only 2 out of 9 were outside the top 5!!

It just shows that if you want a star key forward then you have to pony up early when you have the chance.

Pretty exclusive list you've got there Bob. How about these:

Burton - 16

Bradshaw - 55

Cloke (Travis) - 39

Thompson - 82

So there are also ways to pick up long-term key forwards outside the top 12.

Travis Cloke was a F/S. IMO you can't count father-sons at all in this analysis because you've got no idea where they'd have been taken if clubs hadn't had first dibs. Either way, I wouldn't put him or Thompson in the same class as those mentioned by Bob. Burton might have a case, but it's debatable.

Bradshaw at 55 was a very good pickup, but that was a long time ago. I doubt he would go that low now.

Who did you like Pavlich or Fiora?

the fact that you have compared rich with fiora is ridiculous. rich is far more in and under than fiora ever was.

I was looking at STAR key forwards, not simply long term key forwards. Cloke is no star (and was F/S), Thompson is no star, Bradshaw was drafted a looooong time ago (1995) and I don't think is a star (but is probably closest of your list) and Burton is a small forward, not a key forward. If you want to stretch the boundaries you could claim Brad Miller who was picked at 55.

I'm talking about star key forwards that you can build your side around. You can't build a side around any of the players you mentioned. However you could build a side around the players I mentioned.

My list is supposed to be exclusive, because there are not many around.

But let's add your players to the list (well, not Burton as he isn't a key forward, and assuming Cloke would have been drafted after pick 12, and assuming that they are star key forwards). That means that only 5 out of the 12 star key forwards were drafted outside the top 5. Still incredible.

I don't think everything can be explained by stats, but that many star key forwards drafted inside the first 5 would be a pretty freakish coincidence.

I was looking at STAR key forwards, not simply long term key forwards. Cloke is no star (and was F/S), Thompson is no star, Bradshaw was drafted a looooong time ago (1995) and I don't think is a star (but is probably closest of your list) and Burton is a small forward, not a key forward. If you want to stretch the boundaries you could claim Brad Miller who was picked at 55.

I'm talking about star key forwards that you can build your side around. You can't build a side around any of the players you mentioned. However you could build a side around the players I mentioned.

My list is supposed to be exclusive, because there are not many around.

But let's add your players to the list (well, not Burton as he isn't a key forward, and assuming Cloke would have been drafted after pick 12, and assuming that they are star key forwards). That means that only 5 out of the 12 star key forwards were drafted outside the top 5. Still incredible.

I don't think everything can be explained by stats, but that many star key forwards drafted inside the first 5 would be a pretty freakish coincidence.

I think you are right on the money. in that it seems unlikely we will find a Key Forward with a lower pick. IMO we badly badly need a Natanui, a Rich AND a Watts, it's almost impossible to speculate. Going to be some tough choices.

Travis Cloke was a F/S. IMO you can't count father-sons at all in this analysis because you've got no idea where they'd have been taken if clubs hadn't had first dibs. Either way, I wouldn't put him or Thompson in the same class as those mentioned by Bob. Burton might have a case, but it's debatable.

Yeh whoops screwed that one up. Anyway, just because Thompson isn't of the highest quality doesn't mean he's not a goal-kicking key forward. I'd still be happy with a forward of his ability at that stage of the draft.

I'm talking about star key forwards that you can build your side around. You can't build a side around any of the players you mentioned. However you could build a side around the players I mentioned.

True, I was just naming some other forwards that were drafted later on. But yes, the ones you mentioned are star forwards around which a side an be based.

Star key forwards-

Brown - Father son

Riewoldt - 1

Pavlich - 3

Franklin - 5

Hall - 12

Fevola - 30s

Richardson - Father son

Lloyd - Compensation

Lucas - 5

good analysis on that one... it was a shame the year we bottomed out totally for a draft (2003) we got a really poor draft, especially when it comes to key position players... have a look at the draft and there are no good KPP...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_AFL_Draft#National_Draft

good analysis on that one... it was a shame the year we bottomed out totally for a draft (2003) we got a really poor draft, especially when it comes to key position players... have a look at the draft and there are no good KPP...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_AFL_Draft#National_Draft

KPP's or much of anything else. A really weak draft, Cooney aside, not much that we missed out on here. McLean was a good choice, and C. Johnson slowly showing some signs. Still waiting on Sylvia :-(

Watts could be the Key Forward we need and could build a side round. He has the athletic ability nearly that of Natanui and is a proven football player. Natatui could be a freak, but the chances of Jack being a superstar is a lot higer

It is easier to get a decent midfielder and ruckmen late in the draft and i think its vital to get a KF, as out backline is gradually proving itself, and our major defieciences, i think, is our forwards. I think we have to get Watts, even if that means making thr tough choice and overlooking NikNat

ben mckinley also kicked bags of goals when playing at the u18 champs..and from memory was awarded Vic Metros best player...i wouldnt spend a top pick on ben mckinley either, depsite being a handy player.

McKinley is only 6 foot, Watts is 6'5".

That's where your answer would lie

Some years you'll have to choose between a superbly

talented footballer such as Garry Lyon and a reliable

(i.e not injury prone) footballer such as Plugger.

My view is that it's always better to have your footballers

on the paddock.

Profiles from the following article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/dick...851.html?page=3

NICK NAITANUI (WA): Be warned, Naitanui is still honing his kicking and game sense, and at this stage isn't the complete prospect either Matthew Kreuzer or Matthew Leuenberger was in the past two years. However, he is excitement plus, an athletic, high-leaping ruckman it's hard to keep your eyes off.

DAN RICH (WA): Rich looks like an angel with his blond curly hair, but don't be fooled: he's a hard-running, hard-at-it midfielder who can use the ball in and outside packs. If Essendon should end up with the No. 1 pick, he'd be a very big chance to be chosen there.

CHRIS YARRAN (WA): A clever, classy goalkicker who can mark, crumb and do some freaky things. Has been kicking a lot of goals playing senior level WAFL this year.

MICHAEL WALTERS (WA): As above, a smart goalkicker who hits the ball hard and starred at last year's under-16 championships.

HAMISH HARTLETT (SA): A likely top-10 pick, Hartlett's had some injuries this year. He's a clean and classy midfield prospect who uses the ball very neatly.

MICHAEL HURLEY (Vic Metro): A big, strong and bustly key position prospect, who has looked good at either end.

JACK WATTS: A tall and pacy key forward or back, who is also a national level basketballer. Has had some injuries but will play some of the carnival.

TYRONE VICKERY: One of this year's leading ruck prospects, a 200-centimetre graduate of the 2007 AIS-AFL Academy who has recovered from a knee reconstruction done early last season.

JACKSON TRENGOVE: A big leaper who did good jobs on first-round draftees Matthew Kreuzer and Ben McEvoy late last year. Can play as a mobile ruckman or in a key forward or back line role.

AARON CORNELIUS: A natural forward with clean hands who makes nice leads. Good when the ball hits the ground.

JACK ZIEBELL: Has had some injuries but at 188 centimetres is a talented all-rounder who has looked good in all parts of the ground.

not sure if we remember but there was a goal kicking machine at this level - shayne smith. was kicking bags of goals in the under 18's but was a man playing amongst boys...

i am sure that we have come a long way during this time but....

at this stage right now, assuming we had the no. 1 pick in the pre season draft and national draft

i would take jack watts with pick 1

i would take best available with our priority pick at the end of round 1

and i would take warnock in the pre season draft

not sure if we remember but there was a goal kicking machine at this level - shayne smith. was kicking bags of goals in the under 18's but was a man playing amongst boys...

th

i am sure that we have come a long way during this time but....

THe difference is Jack is dominating not because of size and strength, but due to football abilities. Has the athletisism and football knowledge to make it in the AFL and has the body to be able to build into a solid CHF/F

Does anyone have a picture of Jack Watts?

THe difference is Jack is dominating not because of size and strength, but due to football abilities. Has the athletisism and football knowledge to make it in the AFL and has the body to be able to build into a solid CHF/F

And take into account that football hasn't been his no.1 sport and he has been playing school footy and not TAC, but is able to dominate at the carnival tells me he has upside.

And take into account that football hasn't been his no.1 sport and he has been playing school footy and not TAC, but is able to dominate at the carnival tells me he has upside.

I couldn't agree more.

If we don't take a key position player this draft, you will find me crying in the corner.

We of all clubs should appreciate that they don't come around every draft - 2003 ring any bells.

It would be a tragedy if we took Rich in lieu of Naitanui, Hurley, or Watts.

ben mckinley also kicked bags of goals when playing at the u18 champs..and from memory was awarded Vic Metros best player...i wouldnt spend a top pick on ben mckinley either, depsite being a handy player.

He is only 20 years old give him a break, will dominate in a few years. Fevola was crap when he first started out and Mckinley is playing in a [censored] team