Lucifers Hero

For mine Ess and Blues are mathematically able to make the 8 but that is it. So, I've left them off the chart. The chart still shows the required wins as 9 but realistically I think it could be 10. See below. The only significant game among the top 4 is the Rich/Cats game in rnd 17 which may well determine who misses the top 4. The %'ages are virtually identical for Pies, Saints and Demons. Based on the 'should' wins the battle for 6 - 8 should will likely play out as: Giants 11 wins (I have them beating beat the Saints) Dees 10 wins (I have us losing to the Giants) Pies 9.5 wins Saints 9 Bulldogs 9 wins I think the Giants are safe to be 6th. It leaves the other 4 to fight it out for spots 7/8. To be on the safe side we need 10 wins to avoid a 2017 situation sweating it out for %'age in the last round. We will need to beat Ess in round 18 to get that 10th win otherwise we will be sweating it out for %'age at the end of that round. Giants play Saints in the last round, we play Ess which is a must win so round 18 games are absolutely huge. Well that's all the theory. In the meantime, one week at a time!

Yes, but how many clearances has he won and score involvements has he had as a midfielder this year. How much time has he spent fwd this year? 25% - 30% maybe?

I recall two points in particular. 1. Roos said we will take whoever the Saints don't of McCartin/Petracca. I often wondered if this was a red herring to con them into taking McCartin. I doubt we would have taken McCartin as we still had Watts, Hogan and clearly had our sights on Weideman who we drafted the following year so we were well served for tall fwds. And Roos was desperate to build up our midfield before other parts of the team. I reckon it was always Petracca and Brayshaw. 2. The saints wanted their next Reiwoldt but also Richardson knew Petracca's family very well and they were a bit concerned that would colour his judgement. They took McCartin We got the star!

Umm...he was our leading goal scorer in 2019, kicking 22.14. And In 2017 he kicked 26.16 So his performance this year both in front of the goals and as a match winner around the ground are not a surprise at all.

Even if it was judged a point there is no guarantee they would have got the next goal. It would have been a kick-in instead of a centre bounce. We defended the kick-ins very well. They spent a lot of the game switching back and forth in our i50 so there is every chance we would have locked it in or kicked a goal ourselves and we still would have won. There was six minutes to go with any number of outcomes if it had been a point. It wasn't. We won. End of story! Commentators saying we escaped with a lucky goal are being disingenuous.

Oh, by the way, Goodwin looked very animated and passionate after the game ? Unlike those that criticised his 'statuesque' demeanor in the box or at press conf, I think he cares!

If Pies lose today they are also vulnerable for the 8 which means spots 6, 7 and 8 are up for grabs. As I see it Giants, Saints, Bulldogs and Carlton (if they win today) will end up with 9 wins if they beat the teams they are 'supposed' to beat. Pies will have 9.5 or 10.5 wins and Dees with 10 wins if we beat those we are 'supposed' to beat. Of course the script doesn't go that way - there will be 'upsets'. Saints play Hawks and Giants play the Crows so will be looking for %age boosts from those games. If the battle for 8th is close at the last round it may come down to the round 18 Saints vs Giants game. So, to be on the safe side 10 wins will do it. Don't want a 2017 scenario where we had to sweat on another team's result to get in based on % if a bunch of teams are on 9 wins.

That was a Geelong/Eagles like game style. Control/possession in the back half, fast ball movement fwd of centre. It works against teams that play on and that thrive on getting the ball to ground, contest furiously and fast ball movement, which was us not long ago. Geelong/Eagles often have fewer i50, fewer shots for goal, fewer clearances and more accurate kicking for goal than the op, which was us yesterday. We aren't as polished as them (yet) but a significant leap has been taken to give us flexibility with our game style. There have been signs of it all year; as early as the 2nd qtr of the Carlton game. Back then it was raw and haphazard but the seeds were there. Last night showed how far we have come with it. Just for the record our game style is no longer ballistic, chaos football. We have added the control/possesion element. I'm sure we will play both at times but I'm pretty sure we will see a dominant style depending on who we play. That is what Geelong/Eagles do. At last we had a game plan designed to take away the op main strengths.

They are out and will find it difficult to get back in. But who knows, the last few spots are up for grabs.

GWS found their 2019 form today and beat Freo by 6 goals gaining a 5pt %'age boost. They are now 8th with a %'age of 101.8. Even if we win tonight they will be difficult to dislodge from the 8 as they have a slightly easier run home than us. But if we do win tonight we might dislodge the Saints from the 8. ?

They just showed footage of Green giving the Freo guy a tummy tap/punch identical to the one Lynch got fined for 2 weeks ago. Lets see how hypocritical the media are and if they go after Toby because he is a 'bad boy' of the comp.

Very encouraging, thanks. Am hoping borders are open next year as would love to go to the Alice game and explore the local activities you described above...and see the Santa Teresa oval.

The comment at the end that the people of Santa Teresa may not be demon supporters but we live in their hearts... left me uneasy. Its a nice warm and fuzzy thing to say but it makes me wonder how we will ever get supporters in and around Alice if something as big as grassing the oval doesn't do it.

Giants are up and about. Their A players seem very switched on. At this rate they will build a decent %'age. Hoping the dockers find their mojo, fast! Terrible one side umpiring - all for the Giants.

Saints have dropped Carlisle for an extra on-baller giving them a shorter backline and more mobility around the ground. Little doubt how they will play.

I can't see the article and not sure what time frame it covers but comparing their trade-ins of the last 3 years with ours (named above) their's have collectively been a lot better: Hill, Jones, Ryder, Howard and Butler. Their flop is Hannebery due to his recurring injuries. They have used their last 3 top 10 draft pics wisely: King (2018), Clark (2017), Coffield (2017). That is virtually recruiting a new spine and wings with some mid field additions. They are greater improvements in the last 3 years than ours.

Could someone pm me the article or post a summary. Cheers.

If finals weren't on the line I'd think we are tanking!

I was typing quickly!

So much for stabiising the team. Richardson made two comments yesterday about team selection: 1. Players will be rotated over this compressed fixture. Maybe why Lochhardt is out. 2. We will definitely bring in speed - looks like he lost that argument at the selection table! Goodwin prevails!! Ryder and Marshall will work Max over. And who will relieve him in the ruck? I certainly hope it isn't Weideman!

2020-free-agents-unveiled

With two fwd spots opening up Smith, Hunt and Bennell would have to be in the running.

Yes, it was good to hear. He said something like we "will continue to seek clarification on Alex's behalf" which I assume means the club has been talking to the AFL. Won't change anything but good to hear the club is asking questions and sticking up for Alex in light of this weeks decisions.

Fixed.

I like to think there is room for positional changes as well as extra effort. In the 3rd against the dogs we had no defensive pressure in our f50 so they waltzed the ball out and down the wings. So hypothetically could Harmes and/or Dunkley Lochhardt have swapped with Fritsch and/or Melksham to curb Johanson's and Crozier's drive from their d50 after 3 goals and change the tempo of the game? That may be a silly example but I would like to think there are some things the captain can do or suggest to the coach at their next rotation.