Lucifers Hero

In the past I've been critical because he doesn't impact the scoreboard enough. So I had a look at some of his 'heat maps' and he spends nearly all his his time in the middle or d50. It made me wonder whether he does not have licence to go inside our fwd50 too often. So the answer to my criticism of lack of score board impact could be the role he is asked to play. Will keep a closer eye on this next year. Given the rumours around him at EOS he and his role will be interesting to watch next year.

Fair points but why should concussion or mental health be treated differently for sal cap purposes than retirements for career ending, physical injuries. None of them are foreseeable. If relief is to exist in sal caps it needs to be based on a considered policy in consultation with other clubs not a knee-jerk reaction to a Coll problem. With adequate protections built in so retirements aren't misrepresented by clubs.

I listened to the tape again and they were talking about Beams payout (said to be $500k for the next two years). I've edited my earlier post to reflect this.

OMG!!! Their CEO just said on SEN that they will go to the AFL to get some sal cap relief because of the 'unusual' circumstances, adding they hope they get a 'fair outcome'! Late Edit: To clarify. The sal cap relief talk was related to paying out the Beams contract. He has had mental health issues for several years. General chat is that he is owed $500k for the next two years. If AFL allows this relief it should for all other players whose contracts are paid out for any issue or injury eg KK for us. The rest of the league should be annoyed if an exception is made for them. Especially Sydney who were penalised with 'special, once-off Sydney only' trade restrictions for the Buddy contract. Post Buddy the AFL changed the rules if an FA retires early the full amount is still in the sal cap which is possibly preventing them from retiring him early. And the AFL didn't give extra sal cap space last year to GCS for the large list size, claiming the sal cap is sacrosanct. I have no sympathy for Syd or GCS but Coll should be treated the same. Pies wanted to fix their sal cap so they chase FA and OOC players. It will be an enormous advantage for them to chase these guys if they get sal cap relief. Self imposed damage. Pies, live with it like all other clubs do. @rjaydid I correctly hear what the CEO said about seeking sal cap relief from the AFL - wouldn't want to mislead DL's.

I think there is some chance of prising #12 from Freo if they think their preferred player will slide but again we are competing with Coll and GWS who hold superior trading hands. We might have to throw in 18, 19 and 28 to get a mid 1st round pick. But if we are planning to take only one player and we can get him then why not. Another option is to sit on 18 and 19 and if our preferred play slides take him with 18 then be prepared, on draft night, to trade immediately trade out 19 to a club whose preferred player is ready to be taken off the board. At that point it will attract a premium. Sooo many options... I'm thinking a lot of 1st round pick swaps might happen on draft night depending on who slides down the order.

fwiw I read on another website that Brisbane offered picks 18 and 19 to Ess for pick 8 and they turned it down. So I don't like our chances of getting any of their picks. Especially (as noted earlier) GWS and Collingwood hold a better hand. I note from the Phantom Draft threads that there is a wide variation of players in the top 20ish range so I'm ok if we have to go to the draft with 18 and 19 as some good players will slide.

Not if they can get 14 and 16 (2,228 pts) from Collingwood or 13 and 15 (2,324 pts) from GWS. Not so much for the points value being better but they are much higher picks than ours. And Ess hold an abundance of late picks: 6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87. Because clubs only need to take 1 (or 2) draftees picks like #50 and higher will only really be of value to clubs wanting points for FS/NGA/Acad players.

Because the marketing department don't talk to the football department. We solved a similar calendar problem by eliminating them altogether.

He has 5 years remaining on his Collingwood contract.

Apparently we only need to take one draftee and Mahoney has said we might keep a list spot vacant for future drafting (eg PSSP and mid season). So its hard to guess how many picks we will take. I would think one or two and upgrade Lockhart with pick 89. But it depends on whether we can trade up 18 and 19. Or trade up 28 and 50. Or some combo. I really doubt we will take 4 draftees (plus maybe Lockhart) so we will need to consolidate the picks we have somehow. If we can't I can see us converting 2 of our picks to a future pick. The picture will be a bit clearer once list and draft numbers are finalised and if we have some delistings in the coming weeks.

Thanks for those. He looks like he is practicing forward leading patterns, particularly in the first video.

Yes, future picks can be live traded. But, we can't trade any more future picks until we trade in a 2021 1st round pick, which is unlikely. Pick trade up will be difficult for us because initially, not many clubs with pick #1-#5 will want to trade them out. And if they do there will be plenty of competition with clubs, holding stronger hands that have said they want to trade up: GWS (holding picks 10, 13, 15, and 20 and a full hand of 2021 picks). They aggressively gave up trade value (in points) last year to get into the top 3. Collingwood (holding picks 14 and 16 and want to trade out their 2021 1st pick). GCS (holding pick 5 and a full hand of 2021 picks). They will be relying on Adel, North or Hawks to take their pick #5 and their future 1st. GCS traded up aggressively last year and were willing to give up trade value (in points). Each club will out-trump our holding (pick 18 and 19) for picks 1-5. Unfortunately, that means heavy competition for Ess picks 6,7 or 8. Good luck trying to get a reasonable deal from them or even a timely deal. So I can't see us trading up higher than 10 which will slide to 13-16. Not great news for us but that is my take of the lay of land. We may be better off keeping our picks because some players will surely slide and we may get one of maybe 2 or 3 we have our eye on. Doubt that is the clubs plan but I don't think we have the hand to get too far up the order.

If we lose Oliver and Petracca we will get 2-4 1st round picks some being top 10, not the rubbish Coll got: 1 mid/late 1st rounder and a bunch of rubbish. Don't want to lose them but the situation would not be comparable to what Coll have done this year.

Hard to believe that Buckley is playing the sympathy card: My toughest day in footy....bar none. Meanwhile some of his best kids have just had their hearts broken after he pushed them out of the club. Always two sides to a story but hey he is supposed to be the grown up.

2020 Final 8 @ Rnd 18: Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions Richmond Geelong Cats West Coast Eagles St Kilda Western Bulldogs Collingwood History says one or two final 8 teams drop out the following year. For us to make finals in 2021 which team(s) drop out? imv the most likely are: Collingwood. They have been sliding for the last three years: 2nd, 4th, 6th. The loss of talent and treatment of players during the trade period will rock them a bit so can't see them in the 8. Bulldogs. I'm not as bullish (no pun intended) as many media scribes. From various accounts they have internal player/leadership issues. Treloar improves them but will they get the most from the star studded midfield when some are played in other positions? And while they will get JUH playing fwd they are still short of recognised tall fwds/goal kickers. Naughton is a bit hot and cold. StKilda seem to really have their act together on and off the field so don't think they will slide out. Top 5 positions might move around but doubt any will slide out. Other contenders are: GWS, Carlton, Freo. Anyone of them can have a spot after we make it

I have an unworn jumper with tags and the autographs of most of the last premiership team which I was able to get when they had their 50 year reunion at the Bentleigh Club. I think I was able to snaffle a couple of table cards from Barassi's and Hassa's tables. I bought the jumper in the dark days when Jimmy was ill, we had no FOJ sponsors and wore the 'Reach' label and our BOJ sponsor (some energy company) had gone belly up. I put # 11 on the back. My intention is to donate it to the club but am waiting to add the next demons premiership team autographs. Yes, I know it may be a long wait. But it will be a special item when it happens. That little anecdote aside a friend of mine has the small commemorative silk flags in the days when they were given out or sold for finals. I'll see if she is happy to part with them for the club.

Quite right. We can get a small fwd or a wingman the same way.

Thanks. I didn't see that on line. But that was my guess for a another trade because of the late advice on lists and TPP but my cynicism says it is to help Dunkley get to Ess. In a way it is a bit unfair to announce a mini trade period after the official one. It should be upfront. While I have no desire to see Coll improve would they have agreed to give up Williams for pick #65 and pay $150k of his salary if they thought there was a chance of getting a better deal in a month. More suitors may have come out of the woodwork - us for instance. Not easy to get the attention of decision makers in the hot house hours of the final countdown. Time will tell.

I think they will hold off until the 2021 Mid-Season Drafts (to be held monthly in 2021) and negotiate a retirement with KK if they need the list spot to draft someone. Because there has been little exposed form for this year's draftees, this could easily happen. The same might happen with Jones or Nev if the club needs other list spots mid year.

A potentially interesting twist: "The Bulldogs held their nerve on Josh Dunkley, but what might happen if the AFL holds a second trade period this year, just before the draft? Age Podcast Michael Gleeson, Peter Ryan and Jake Niall are good reporters and doubt they would hypothesise that without something behind it. It could be linked to the late advice of List sizes/TPP. Only guessing tho. Or is their a hint that the AFL may do it to help Essendon and the Bulldogs, both AFL darlings in recent years... I'm hoping this is the end of the player trade and lets get on with the draft etc.

Weird that they ranked us equal 3rd at 8/10 with Carlton and Geelong yet somehow manage to list us 6th rather than 4th (it isn't even alphabetical). Other weird rankings: GWS ranked 16th but got pick 11 for Williams (DFA), 2 extra 1st round picks for Cameron and better picks for Caldwell by standing their ground. Yet Geelong ranked 4th for giving up 3 first round picks (less some back) for a player they should have got free. Underestimated their op strategically. Lions ranked 7th yet added Daniher, Cockatoo and upgraded its 2021 picks: an extra 1st and an extra 2nd. Their rankings seem based mostly on players in and out. Rather shallow 'analysis' not giving due weight to picks in and out. A lot of finesse is required to maximise draft positions in 2020/2021 as Mahoney has shown.

For the last two years we have had fewer than the allowed 40 senior players but made max use of Rookies. The first $80k of a rookie salary is not included in the sal cap. This year we had 6 'A' rookies; a sal cap buffer of $480K (and 38 senior players). So rookies are quite attractive for sal cap. Its a shame the AFL has cut them back so far.

I can see Coll 'tanking' 2021 to fast track a 'rebuild'. If they end up bottom 3 -5 they will get a pick that will probably be high enough to get a top player before a bid on Daicos (F/S). Two top 10 players will be a good start and might soothe the masses a little...well those that are left after the membership cancellations. They lost 10,000 this year. More losses to come.

So you expect us to finish 14th - 18th ? Don't think so! I wouldn't be surprised to see Hawks, Coll and Ess in that range...well one can hope.

With Beams 'retiring' it is 3 players costing 5 recent first round draft picks that were sent packing. But they save $1.5m a year in sal cap...Hmmm. Clubs should take heed of how Geelong manage their sal cap. The List Manager does the first cut and then they meet with the Finance Department to keep it manageable. And they have sign off rules that go right up to Board level for player contracts > x. In comparison Coll sounds like the Wild West! Btw, rumour has it that Beams was brought back at Eddie's behest. He cost 2 1st round picks and reportedly $500k pa for 4 years and played 9 games in 2 years. Won't play again. But mud won't stick on Eddie. Ned Guy will be the fall guy.