deelusions from afar

Agree with you on all of that - although maybe not quite as confident as you about this weekend ... but maybe I'm just managing my expectations (or mental health) should we not get up!

@binman or anyone else listen to Sando's Strategy session on Whatley today? I again think he's overrated. He references losing McDonald (I think he meant Petty) and then goes on to talk about the different styles of Melbourne and Carlton. He said Carlton is all about winning at the contest and defending really well. I thought our mantra was "contest and defence"? He said Melbourne will want it to be a fast transitional free flowing game whereas Carlton will want methodical, stoppage, scoring from contest. But also said how Melbourne had scored so many goals from stoppage last week. And also said Carlton's great wins this year have come from turnovers in the transition coming back the other way. 🤔 In my view both teams are quite similar in style. Both pride themselves in winning the ball in the contest and score that way when they can. The other way they score is through turnovers (as do almost every other team). Why do people rate Sando?

Didn't May keep Curnow quiet in our last match against them? Surely as their only key target he would play on him again? Smith for Martin?

I would think so as well. However, if he is not cooked... he may have timed his run well. We're currently running into finals with our main swing man / forward (Petty) down and out... and intending to rely on Smith (who has never had much luck staying on the park). TMac (who admittedly frustrates the bejesus out of me when playing) has the ability to play forward, back and has also relieved in the ruck previously. We're only an injury or two away from needing me... who knows... if he gets it together in the VFL he may get called on anyway.

I agree. We were getting all the media attention in 2018 and we know where that got us (as good as it was at the time). What we have now is far more consistent which is boring for the media

I'm sure they're getting in his ear right now saying that if he builds his body and works hard then there will be opportunities next year. I know key position players take longer... but I don't think anyone saw McVee playing all games this time last year. Big summer for Jefferson coming up!

You're preaching to the converted. But the reality is we are all in silos on our own teams. While many pies fans would be concerned, I'm sure there's others that are saying they've been loading and/or there's no motivation for dead rubber games and their effort will be back for the finals. I think many in the media are scarred by Melbourne losing all its matches the same way at the end of last year - seemingly with no ability to change the momentum of the game (except maybe against Carlton) once we lost it in the second half. There are so many signs which indicate this year is very different - but we don't currently know. Huge game against Carlton!

I'm definitely not going into bat for Josh Jenkins as i don't think I've ever heard him say anything special as an analyst. However, he's not wrong on a few things: With Petty's injury, the forward line IS still a question mark. I'm not overly concerned as 2021 showed that if the other parts of our game are in check then that's more important. We've got a few weeks to work out if its Smith / Grundy / BBB / Tmac. Brisbane had us on toast. However they have since lost Ashcroft and we will still get Oliver and Fritsch back - and more importantly, we found a way. The mainstream footy media love the knee jerk reactions (and anyone with opposing views to generate debate) but the reality is the finals are still a few weeks away - watch whoever wins in our match this week become the number 1 favourite next week.

Interestingly in 2021 (due to covid) we didn't train there either. Just sayin

I think that might have been more to do with Oliver than any messaging strategy

It's interesting to reflect our 2021 GF forward line consisted of Key forwards / resting ruck: Tmac, BBB and Jackson Mid sized forwards: Fritsch Small forwards / resting mids: Kozzie, ANB, Spargo, Sparrow On current form / selection, Spargo is replaced by Chandler. I'm assuming Petty doesn't make it back for finals but Fritsch does. On balance I think one of BBB / Grundy / Tmac? will make the finals team. My reason being that I don't think we'd go with a forwardline of JVR with aerial support from Smith, Fritsch and Melksham - we'd be a bit undersized. However, it largely comes down to ball movement (which has a lot to do with pressure, fitness, gut running and skill execution). I wouldn't be against going with a smaller more nimble line-up this weekend against the blues to see how it goes. My hunch is the blues pressure (since they've started winning) is actually very good and may force us to bomb forward which is unlikely to be effective when our only big target is a young key forward in his first season in the AFL. Having said that, none of BBB, Grundy or Tmac are competitive types in a pack - they are better on the lead (BBB), when it hits the ground (Grundy) or coming third man up (TMac).

A lot to play out... but I think the Giants will make the prelim the way they are going. Wouldn't want to face them if that happened!

While I don't disagree, I think the world has shifted - its no good for the competition to have teams stuck at the bottom (regardless of how they got there). The AFL will do whatever it thinks will get North heading up the ladder.

I remember people saying the same about us when we at our lowest ebb. As we know, more high draft picks doesn't work on its own and understandably I think the AFL should be open to other options that would do more to get them moving the right direction e.g: Greater soft cap allocation (for a few years) for teams that have finished in the bottom 4 (for example) 3 years running. As we know, you can have all the top picks but it doesn't matter if you don't develop them. Greater salary cap (eg veterans list) (also for a finite period of time) to enable the bottom clubs to chase experienced culture building type players in the twilight of their careers. Extra draft pick at start of second and third round. Larger list / rookie list for teams that are stuck at the bottom of the ladder.

I think the beauty of having Petty and Smith in the team (and previously McDonald) you have options at your disposal to change things up when it's not working in game. Probably my only real criticism of Goody is that he previously didn't do enough of this in game - but there's a tension between that and backing your players and planning in (and also our fitness levels) for things to change over time. Having the option of switching Petty / Smith in game is a real weapon going forward.

I would have thought the same but I heard Sam Edmund on the radio earlier this week and while all these footy "journalists" have to make big calls to stay relevant - it seemed to me he had been fed information from a good source and was preparing the ground for this to happen. I don't like it, but I just get the sense it's going to happen - they'll have pick 2, pick 3 (McKay) and then have access to Sanders separately.

Agree with you on Hunter - but I thought they were alternating the wings this year based on their preferred kicking foot?

That all makes sense. I guess what I'm wondering though is whether we are taking a similar approach to our shift in centre bounce strategy a few years back eg where we're not as concerned about winning them as we used to be - it's more about winning them well when we do and (ideally) preventing the opposition from winning them well. Ie scoring opportunities rather than hack kicks. To apply this to turnovers, of course we want turnovers in our F50 through intercepts / tackle pressure etc but have we realised that we are more likely to score from turnovers we get at halfback rather than half forward? And if so, have we rejigged things so that that's what happens?

Don't know if there's a link somewhere but thought the comments Joe Montanga made on 360 last night about us was interesting. Essentially we've gone from being in the top bracket to about 12th in terms of forward half turnovers in the last few weeks. And at the same time our scoring has lifted as we know. I've thought this since seeing how Collinwood played us last year - they look so good on turnover as 80% of the players on the field are in our forwardline and then they have an open field to work with on the turnover. If we force turnovers in the front half, we still have to work through the opposition's defence which is largely in place which is so much harder. I know Montagna and King can get caught up in meaningless stats but it was interesting to see the shift. My questions for @binman and the rest of the brains trust are: 1. Is this shift deliberate (or does it say more about our opponents the last few weeks)? 2. If it is deliberate (I think it is), why has it taken us this long to work it out - wasn't this obvious last year? 3. How much of this approach is reliant on Gawn being down the line. I.e does it still work with Grundy in the team? Has this occurred because Grundy is not in the team? 3. Does this shift mean we are more vulnerable in defence? Statistically the last few weeks would say that is correct. But I actually think if we are aiming to get turnovers further back, it probably makes us harder to score against (particularly) for teams that are skilled at kicking through the hard forward press. I feel like last year we tried this but often ran out of gas to keep it going for the full game.

I think what we do know is that Jason Taylor and co are very prepared to go all in to get the player they want - Apparently offering 3 first round picks for Humfrey last year. Haven't watched him closely this year but he has had enormous impact in the games I have seen for a first year player. The fact that we have so much currency gives us far greater chance at getting the player/s JT want - whether that be Reid or others.

I think if you're serious Grundy needs more weeks in the VFL - are we wanting him to genuinely work on his forward craft / impact forward of the ball or just wanting to get a media headline? I actually think BBB was ok yesterday. We got a lot of goals from people leading in the space behind him - I have a feeling that JVR / Smith / Petty wouldn't be able to create this at the moment. I think Smith as the sub is the perfect option for Brown in the last quarter when we need more run / pressure. We did a similar thing against Sydney earlier in the year (Brown kicked a few and then was subbed out I think injured). Obviously that plan doesn't work if we get an injury. For me Goody / the FD don't trust a forwardline lead by Smith / JVR. They want one of Brown or Grundy in the mix. As good as JVR is, he's essentially in his first season. He's great when he's allowed to run and jump but no top 4 team is going to allow him to do that.

Wow! I thought he was a sure thing to move on at the end of the year... seems like he has unfinished business with this group!

All on their day will trouble us and we can't realistically be "on" every week. I think Nank being out for the Tigers is a big plus and potentially McKay, Silvagni and Walsh will help significantly against the blues. We should be able to beat them anyway but a few % off and any of these teams can make you look second rate. I think the Sydney game (particularly if they have finals on the line or if it's Buddy's last game) will be tough. Sydney and Longmire's coaching seems to have the edge on us in recent times. I know we beat them convincingly earlier this year, but we piled on the goals late in the last. Late in the third they had us in all sorts (reminded me of many games at the back end of last year) - but on this occasion a few things went our way and we ran away with it.

This is such a tough decision - I keep on going back and forth about whether we go all in on Harley or whether we draft 2 top 10 talents (or essentially take 3 first rounders). It's doing my head in.... And isn't that a beautiful thing! (particularly while we are also sitting in the top 4 heading into finals - and have either beaten or gone within a kick for everyone above us)

Sorry - my comment was more of a joke than actually thinking he'd be in contention for an AA. But yes if he played like that the next 6 games then I guess he could be a shot.