Demon Dynasty

I get the stats from Footywire and compose them as a weighted average Skuit. Pretty basic and i'm sure any decent stats analyst would probably pick it to bits but after a few tweaks and a bit of reverse engineering (till about round 5 / 6 this year) i let it be as i found it to be a reasonably accurate guide as to how a player is fairing within a match / over the season. As you said there would be a number of biases and a few outliers in there if you weren't bothering to observe the games (always a better option of course!). A good example O-Mac, who tends to play a blanketing role and by design doesn't rack up many cheap stats out the back vs many other defenders. On surface the ranking makes him look ordinary vs other defenders but as we know, in most matches he has done a fine job so far with a couple of exceptions. I sometimes use it as a reminder to what a player might or might not be doing or how he is going vs peers in a similar role. Kind of a flag if you like, then link that up with "Stats Pro" to see if the reality in game is anything like what the composite (or the stats within it) are indicating. A handy reference point if you like as we sometimes forget what we've seen (at least i do anyway). You simply can't take in everything on the day and our vision sometimes blurred by various distractions / biases / beers / flag waving / the war office etc!

It will take a combined effort SW. This is a great test for the club and player to adjust the sails from starboard (crumbing fish role as mentioned) to Port (KPF - shark). If the FD weren't aware of it they certainly will now ? Next 3 weeks is a great opportunity to fix. I think they missed the fact that our delivery was horrid at times. But at other times it was in his area (as per fox video) and on a couple of occasions on the chest also which he missed. My understanding is forwards gain confidence with much that they do by scoring goals. Get him back to doing that and the rest should follow. P.S. Minor point but might have helped his confidence a little if T-Mac handballed to him in the square on Friday night for the goal. Bit risky though.

He would need to BAMF. Zero impact Zero goals last two critical matches. Can't agree more about getting him back to playing a key power position. With Viney back and now we've brought another mid in in Tyson, Hogan spending significant time up the field is simply not required. Our delivery was ordinary at times agreed, but a couple of other times he received lace out on the lead and tried to chest mark it instead of marking in front. Spoiled easily. Goody needs to get him back on track and fast in the next 3 rounds when we /he has the opportunity against lessor rated opponents. Derny's assessment is interesting..... https://www.theroar.com.au/tv/dermott-breretons-scathing-assessment-of-jesse-hogans-performance/

A quick stats form guide looking at the first 8 rounds compared to the last 5 if anyone's interested. There are some surprising and not so surprising movers as well as some big falls from grace. How the hec does Clarry do it!! '+' means no change in rank but an improved score eg.,., Clarry & Jones. Fritchskreig has had quite a month or so! Does the Hibb drop off coincide somewhat with Lever's departure? Hogan off the charts, but unfortunately in the wrong direction. # Missed 3 match minimum for ranking / comparative purposes in this block. * Did not play in first 8 rounds for comparative purposes. Note: Max would rank higher if 'hit outs to advantage' were included in weightings.

He wasnt terrible at all Steve. However, the decision to replace Spargo with him and leave us with no small crumber while adding an unnecessary slow to react and move Tyson to an already sluggish mid field, certainly was. Add a T-Mac likely injury omission (or far from 100% if playing - Nev as well), an out of form Hogan. Smith or Weid having to play a relief ruck role. A mid field that can't hit the barnside of a door inside 50 or manage a goal or more off its own boot, a team that struggles on the expanses of the G, and we are looking decidly shakey. Even against the lowly Saints. Alot needs to go right at the selection table and on the day if we are to have a solid win against an up an about Saints coming off a win and the bye. If it doesn't this could be a an ugly coin flip.

Under higher level pressure from a quality team this is about right OD. We've been found out so many times now. I also worry about teams taking it to us in the physical dept. We lack a few more goers who will fly the flag when the better sides try to bully us off the ball. The Hawks, Pies and to a lessor degree Port, all tried to get the edge on us here. The Hawks in particular seemed to succeed. The one player who stood up on the day and pushed back significantly was Kent, who also had a super first quarter, before fading like most unfortunately. Bugg & Harmes probably the other two goers i can think of off the top of my head. This might come to some with more game time but in reality it's probably more organic than taught. In addition we STILL haven't uncovered a true champion that can take hold of a match for a quarter or more of mad intensity / quality finish and change the momentum our way for a close win against quality opp.

SF aside from Salem / Melk at times and Fritsch probably more consistently, can you name me a player or more (especially another who runs through mid field) who is capable of hitting targets fairly often? Or at least kick it to their favoured / fat side? Some of our entries and work inside 50 by foot was abysmal on Friday night. I think Big M was about the only one i can recall, aside from Jones to Gus (which should have bee paid), who managed to show some poise and foot skills coming inside 50 when he found Smith. Contrast this with T-Mac's set shot goal accuracy. We need our mids to start kicking a few goals also. This bombing business just plays into our opponent's hands and makes us too predictable / easy to defend. Separation of key forwards would help also as we were doing when T-Mac first returned. What the hec happened to the fluidity up forward we were having after the Bulldogs game?

Goody has much to do if we are to make finals, let alone have an impact if we get there. This one of many key issues to address. If Goody does send him to the McGoos i sure hope he has a cunning plan in store! At the moment i'm not sure Tracc even knows what or where he is supposed to be from one quarter to another. Was progressing and tracking fine until bite gate and while not playing or regressing badly, appears to have stalled since. Hogan a major step backwards the last 2 weeks needs to be addressed also.

I'm almost over the whole AFL scene SF. I watched a little of the Norf / Dogs encounter. At one point a Norf player was tackled, went down on a knee while being tackled (broke that tackle...just), then tried another tackler on after running on a little more...disposed the ball incorrectly.... "play on" called. From that direct piece of play the ball then ends up on Norf's 50 arc, bounces off ground into an oncoming Doggy defender's bread basket. He gathers, gets immediately tackled... "holding the ball". I turned the game off at that point and went over to world cup (possibly a replay). Unwatchable.

The other change i noticed against the Pies was the umps were super quick at throwing the ball up not allowing the rucks to get set for the contest. I got the impression they didnt want to do Maxy any favours with his height advantage. Imagine this in a final or GF...."lets just officiate this one completely differently from the rest of the year shall we?!"...

Do what Clarkson did and go confront Gill. MFC needs to grow some in this area and ask for please explain on the Melk / O-Mac decisions that effectively cost us the match. Eddie would be on the phone first thing this morning and allover the airways. We've been the whipping boy of the AFL for too long in this area.

I agree he needs rewarding PF but he will not have anywhere near the impact on the scoreboard at AFL level (vs form at Casey in this area....7 goals) if he is also playing a chop out role in the ruck. Just as Smith wouldn't. Just as Hogan wouldn't if he were asked. AFL is a completely different level to VFL as you know, especially when effort / time is taken towards carrying out a relief ruck role which he does little, if any of, at Casey. Hence the 7 goal haul. When you say Weids is more dangerous around goal the stats suggest otherwise with Smith leading goal averages and score involvements vs Weids. My worry is i'm not even sure we need 3 talls to be honest. No matter what the combo.....Weids, Hogan, T-Mac..... Smith, Hogan, T-Mac etc. IMHO it makes us too easy to defend and rebound against when the ball hits the ground, clogs up the ability of each to mark and impact (see Friday where you often saw Hogan/Smith or T-Mac / Hogan competing for the same ball) and a few smaller forwards might be able to impact the scoreboard more often off the crumbs....rather than say just one. Would it be better to have just 2 key forwards and include Spargo AND Jeffy for example?

That is a tweak that probably needs to happen at some point SF if we are to rescue the season and make finals...and hopefully win a final also. Not saying 100% game time but as a resting SF for significant parts of the game? With the return of Viney to a central mid field role and the pushing of Gus out to a more of an on ball HF role we have now recommenced over-use of handball again, especially around the mid field contests. Makes it easier for the opp to corral us and eventually get a turnover to their advantage. Also prevents the ball coming inside 50 as quickly as it might if we were kicking more often. The 3 handball happy amigos kick to handball ratio (with Viney in....Brayshaw pushed out) tells the tale.... Clarry: 0.48 Viney: 0.68 Jones: 0.73 No doubt the low kicking can be attributed to the necessity to handball under pressure and close in work but as we know there is a bit of a choice as to what players prefer. Clarry a great example of someone who prefers to handball significantly more than kick. Brayshaw has the highest kicking average in the team. Kick to handball ratio...... Brayshaw: 1.27 Pretty sure Tracc likes to kick more often also. He would be another i would be looking to get more time into through the mid field (eventually). Part of the issue with kicking though is to be pretty efficient at hitting targets as well and on Friday we were generally woeful with most players guilty of constant wasteful bombing to the hot spot, including Gus. We really need to start hitting up more targets around the 50 meter arc in order to get deeper entries inside 50 and a few more long set shots on goal. The other issue is....very few of our players that run through mid field....are kicking goals at the moment and posing any danger to our opponent. I can't think of one player in the side who worries the scoreboard from around the 50 and plays through the mid field.

I'm just saying it's possible Timbo and wouldn't have helped his cause given his contribution on the day. He is more than likely considered a fringe player at the moment i would guess.

Ethan he spent a slab of time in the ruck and also spent only 57% of time on the ground (probably due to head knock) and still came equal 4th in the tackle count on the night. He also laid 3 of those inside 50. Only bettered by Melk with 4 who had 84% game time. Smith is 2nd (only to Clarry) in Tackle averages this season and also leads the average tackle count inside 50 this season. We hear so much in the press, footy world and on here about forward 50 pressure so if you want forward 50 pressure Smith is the best at it for the MFC right at this moment....all while providing a chop out in the ruck! He definitely needs to do more but with only 57% game time and giving a chop out in the ruck he had limited opportunity. I only saw him make one mistake on the night and that was after laying a tackle just outside 50, winning the free kick, but then kicking it long to a vacant pocket (nobody) for a point when he should have gone somewhere closer to a hot zone near goal or looked for a target short. Goody was livid and Coaches tend to remember this stuff when you are trying to break in to a team.

Writing was on the wall weeks ago. A few weeks at Casey with a few important goals set by Goody & Co. A message that talent will only get him so far (which is probably where he is at now). Extra time/space & less pressure at Casey might be just the tonic. Build 3 to 4 quarter tank, get stronger over ball, clean up disposal (lower eyes coming i50 and hit other short targets around the field), improve goal accuracy and provide more 2nd efforts around the drop. His disposal is super sloppy/rushed at the moment. Rarely assesses and often just plays on in hope. He over runs the ground ball far too often also, leaving it behind for other team mates to try and clean up, or worse, our opponents. Needs to build tank to enable equal time spent through the middle and up forward on his return and i would be playing him in same dual role at Casey before bringing him back provided he finds the form there and earns his place over whoever he might be replacing.

His first match was ok. Completely MIA last night IMO. Wagner will be a better alternative and in better form vs a less tall (compared to Port) Saints line up. We will need an extra medium back to help clean up at ground level, assuming Frost comes in to replace Vince.

Ins: Weid, Bugg, Spargo, Stretch, Wagner, Frosty Out: Hogan, ANB, Tracc, Tyson, Joel Smith, Vince

Thanks KC

Stockdale kicks his first goal on debut....16.12.108 Coburg 4.7.31

Frost, Lok & Josh Wags have done fairly well across HB this quarter

Great defensive service from Bugg on multiple occasions inside 50 sees his 3rd effort (or so) at a ball up result in a quick weighted kick forward out in front of Weids for the mark and kicks accurately for his 7th. Bugg again involved in another forward passage who gets the ball to Hutchins for another.

Spargo nice clearance off the throw in and kicks quickly to Weids who takes a sweet contested mark....kicks truly for his 6th. Weids a lock for the Saints match

Awesome thanks Tracc