Demon Dynasty

Any chance we can ignore 666 and bring back the flood!?

Stats Predictor has the Swans winning by 26 Points (excludes allowance for umpiring bias!). Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Swans Bottom 6 Demons Swans *Omitted for Rnd 4 2019

Clangers and Turnovers would probably go some way towards it Optimus. That's all we have at public level. Champion data may have something more specific we aren't privy to.

Such a complex and difficult game Praha. Hoping it's more an under done fitness/tank issue that's impacting the defensive two way aspect. The outs are definitely impacting also. No point being too harsh at this point but at some stage those who seem to be way off it vs last year (trend wise) need to start lifting their output/form. If we had a few more knocking on the door at Casey it might help also.

✌? cheers Skuit and Buck. I took a sneak peak straight after the Swans match ....lets just say it wasnt exactly warming ? Although they were playing the Blues so maybe, just maybe, things are out of whack on their numbers. I'll try and adjust for Ins / Outs (where possible) after tonight's announcements before hitting the prediction button and posting on here.

Normally i would not post any weighted average rankings till at least round 6 as the amount of data to go on just isn't robust enough. And in this case the same principle applies so best not to take too much notice of the table below, especially with some players having played only one match and others coming in under done etc. However, thought i'd go a tad early due to the less than stellar beginning to get a very rough idea where some players are at, even at this premature phase, versus their entire 2018 season averages. Will revisit this again after Rnd 6 vs 2018 and also compare the block of 3 games from tomorrow evening through to the Tigers and compare percentage & rank changes vs the first 3 rounds. Whoever it was in the press who said Clarry (among others) is a bit off, needs to have a rethink IMHO. May be a tad up and down (who isn't / wasn't in the first 3 rounds) but over the 3 matches so far he has started pretty much exactly where he left off in 2018, and that after surgery on both shoulders! This is the stuff legends are made of....get around him boys! Premierships are won off the back of great players with courage such as Clarry, as long as everyone pulls in the same direction (and most gaping holes filled with solid recruiting!). Carn the Mighty Demons! Note: Big M's stats do not include hit outs to advantage. His ranking would obviously be altered if there was some way of including this stat specific to ruck work only.

I would think a full pre-season without any foot interruption issues will bring that power back again BBP. We might see it in patches this year but wouldn't be expecting it regular given the interruptions. Personally i think this year is a bit of a write off. For reasons already mentioned umpteen times. I reckon we just have to get more games into those we think might continue on the list in 2020. Get those we know are required who aren't fit back on the park (obviously) and into the system firing a little again, learning whatever system it is Goody is teaching and finding some confidence in their own game, the game style and slowly finding the trust in one another again. Severely lacking especially down back at the moment. Get May back in ASAP and hopefully cement his spot, learning to gel with Lever and the other regular backs we settle on. Omac and Frost need to go back to Casey once these 2 are both back. Frost to learn to make better decisions on the run and clean up his disposal to an acceptable level before returning. I would put Hunt in that category also if he can't improve his disposal by foot substantially in the next month or so (provided we have a replacement to cover). You can't win footy matches without a solid defence and at the moment this is our weakest point, closely followed by the forward line and a sever lack of speed and finishing skills on the outside. Fritschkrieg/Salem & Stretch/Harmes off both wings is a non negotiable at this point. If we are playing Jones or anyone without a bit of toe out there from here you have to really question the judgement of our coaching panel. There's not a huge amount we can do up forward other than bringing Jeffy/Spargo back, waiting for T-mac to get over his injury and find form and hoping that the likes of Lockhart (Chandler at some point?) find their way as the season goes. Then there's the Jones conundrum. Personally i think we can still play him through there, just in very short stints or more of a run with role on the right match. Alternating between these roles and resting in the forward pocket/bench. Avoid putting Jones AND Viney into the middle at the same time and we'll be ok IMO. At the end of the year we must throw everything at a genuine KPF and at least 2 serious speedsters on the outside who are able.to work their way through traffic, make good decisions coming inside 50 and at AFL level with their foot skills. Ideally we also need a genuine small crumber with bjrst speed who has the hunger to run both ways (defend) and knows where the goals are. From there Goody needs to take us to another level so we are capable of playing man on man and up in the face of opponents with a full ground style press similar to what we saw from the Eagles against the Pies with intense pressure, not just zoning. Then there's the other side. Being able to maintain possession and slowing the game down, switching multiple times and looking for that eventual free player to start off the next link up play inside 50 on the overlap etc. At the moment we are all straight ahead attack attack like a bull at a gate (whose brain has left him). Bombing also results at the end of that attack on most occasions. If our disposal skills by foot were generally better across the park this constant attack style might be more damaging (maybe we were more accurate last year?) But at this point our.disposal and decision making is so horrid vs last year, bull at a gate is nowhere near as effective, especially with a leaky backline on the sling shot once we turn it over or the Opp cleans up in our very ordinary forward line.

Missed a goodin there LT. Nearly spat out my toast! Thanks for the article.

Floweresque! What a joy to watch. About the closest we have to someone like that at the moment is Jeffy in our forward half, Nev and Fritshkreig in patches (when running hot). Didn't realise he was that good. His 45 kicks and ability to see what's on up the field in the heat of the moment, not.to mention evasive skills. And there's the finish and polish with ball in hand. Must watch him more closely from here. Football at its finest.

Richmond JLT we were slaughtered down back for most of the match after the 1st quarter and a half dazzle. Only other AFL appearance i recall was against the Saints last year and I'm not sure if he got injured but i seem to recall he had pretty much zero impact in that match.

He started off his career as mostly a HFFer from what,i recall Wise but obviously had youth on his side back then. Forward pocket?

Maynard's about the only direct replacement mid available though SW. He might be worth rolling through there at some stage but can't see it unless one of the main 4 that run through there go down with an injury. I still think there's a part to play for Jones but as you say, old father time is against him.

This is spot on Wrecker. We can't afford another Junior Mac episode. I'm not writing Jones off for the year either but it's not looking great. Prefer to revisit this about Rnd 8 - 10 and see where everyone is placed with a fair chunk of matches behind us.

So is that a slow tag vs a soft tag Soi?

While this is probably true Demon who do you bring in to replace them that will match or improve on either's performance (this year) ? Our stocks at VFL level (+ injury list) are extremely low. We should be blooding replacements this season (and a little in the 2nd half of the last) but where are they?

I also think we are in for a huge reality check in the years to come AM sadly. Our results should improve as we get into the 2nd half with the better players returning but given they're coming off a very interrupted pre-season i don't feel their impact will be as significant as some might be hoping for. Goody and Co. have a mountain of work to do in the next few seasons and would want to be getting most of their selections from here on the money or we are looking at a significant renovation of our list.

Thanks Rjay. Yes their professionalism and general talent spotting seems a fair way ahead of us at the moment.

Excellent post PSD. The trouble is we have not recruited all that wisely IMO. Had we done so then surely having our regular 22 tested for the first time in a while we would not have dropped so far (landslide!) off our better form in 2018. Could this also be a price we are paying for having an aligned club in the VFL instead of our own? Surely the Casey list players aren't exactly on the same page as the MFC ones playing there from a care factor / "play the MFC" way point of view!? The Hawks were clearly mostly on the same page on Sunday, well drilled, committed at the contest. Fleet of foot, running on top of the ground, baulking around our boys like witches hat's. Hitting targets regularly and had burst speed/power off the mark from a half dozen or so on their list. In comparison we looked ploddy, disorganised, not much burst speed / power off the mark and couldn't hit a barn door (in most cases) and just bombed away inside 50, not dissimilar to the seniors. One could not help but be astonished at the difference in the finishing skill levels, the power & burst speed and general agility / speed with which the Hawks were able to link up and overlap off HB into forward 50 to find targets between the 2 clubs. Was like watching a VFL team play an under 18 Junior club sprinkled with a few VFL level players and one or 2 from AFL. The Hawks are clearly recruiting for power/burst speed (athletic types that can play a little) and some reasonable football skills then training them intensily with skills skills and drills to turn them into highly skilled professional powerful players (at VFL level) and under a specific Hawthorn method/system, with the idea some will eventually make the grade after a few years in the system and slot nicely into the senior system and way. On the other hand Casey looks like a disorganised lottery with little power/burst speed (athleticism lacking) and pretty ordinary skills/footy smarts also, with a couple of individual exceptions doing their own good work (mostly alone). We then rush players in who haven't been in OUR dissorganised amaturish system very long, assuming their is one at VFL level that resembles somethung similar to the seniors, and expect them to step up and perform, probably not completely understanding the manor and way in which they are expected to play at senior level until they've been in the system for a good block (if they survive that long!). No wonder we are where we are with a few injuries etc in the off season.

With the return of Lever & a match fit May, MacFrost can be sent back to Casey for some finishing time Steve. We need to follow the likes of the Hawks here and see rookies spending at least 2 years or so honing their craft (disposal/kicking efficiency and decision making a major part of that), getting plenty of real match time under their belts and learning the MFC defensive system down to a tee (if there is such a thing under Goody) prior to any return to AFL level (if they make it back).

Can recommend a very smooth option to lighten the outlook a little or ease the agony, whichever is the case OD. I'm not a huge whisky officiado but highly recommend "Hibiki Masters Select". Never thought I'd enjoy a Japanese model but it's very refined and easy on the palate. Bottle a bit of a keeper and impressive genuine cork stopper also if you're into aesthetics!

Now now Chook...be nice!

Only 3 rounds in and not much to go on but out of the 26 players used so far i have him ranked 23rd (on composite averages). His worst game was against the Bombers ranked 22nd just below ANB with a weighted score of 0.550 Average this season is 1.333 To put that in some perspective his average weighted score for the entire 2018 home & away was 2.861 and he ranked 15th out of 37 players that took the field.

That's as good as we've got returning at this point. Stretch and Fritschkrieg/Salem to play the main wingman roles pls with a bit of Harmes / Hunt thrown in until Mitch returns. Chunk as a run with on their best mid sharing this role with Harmes (in small doses). Gus, Clarry Viney as the main mids with a fair chunk from Tracc and also a decent % of Jeffy from time to time at the center bounce to take advantage of the extra 666 space. Should help open things up a little on the spread (Jeffy) and improve the disposal skills coming i50 (more time/space in theory!). When we play both Chunk & Viney in main roles through the middle (at the same time at stages in a match) we look pedestrian slow and often 2nd to the ball. The opp knows this and they will make sure they have at least one mid in with some toe if both are on the ground to take advantage as per Shiel on Friday night. Chunk & / or Viney have little chance of catching anyone with a bit of pace once they're out the back if they're playing off the back of the contest a little.

You're easily pleased LDC! I prefer toast