binman

I also reckon in time tbat the aflw might trial the format. Would help with the issue of the thin talent pool

Makes total sense. Add the fact that it replaces a jlt game and you can see why i reckon tbe coaches would prefer to play aflx to jlt games and even intra clubs game. The aflx will replace the pre season games from next season. Take it to the bank

From the above i hard two hard luck stories. Backed Smart Coupe for a place (which i rarely do ie back the pace) but i thought it would lead and prove very hard to run down and thought was terrific value for a place. I also thought Lord of the Sky was chance in the Orr, in part because it is likes to lead but it is also an under rated horse who has a pretty good rating and was way unders. Had a little on the win and more on the place. It loomed up and i though it was with a chance but it obviously peaked on its run. going forward i think Gallo Chop will do well and Merchant Navy will love Flemington

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor. The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on. My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in. But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use.

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and thought my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4! Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand.

Don't tell ProDee that.....

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above. But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

Simon Goodwin out. He has sense of humor does Ben

Never in doubt!

Its funny, there always seems to be one or two horses that makes up ground on leaders tracks. Like Seberate (at 15-1) who i backed in the last. I reckon some horse like having 2 or 3 to chase and relax into it. The problem comes lining that form up next time and i reckon many tipsters over rate how good the run was ('made ground against the pattern' blah blah blah). Leaders tracks are a real issue, particularly at Caulfield. Some horse simply don't have chance either because they miss the kick, have poor luck in running or are natural swoopers and don't like racing on speed. The problem for me is i do my form and we put all of our bets on a the start of the day so if i guess it is going to be really leaderish and i'm wrong i'm in trouble. Also by the end of the day it oftens evens up (which i take into account) but not always!

Looks like i'm right that the track is a bit leadrish. I have always thought Punter's Lament would be a great name for a horse. I have had my fist punters lament for the carnival already. Hayes has dome brillinatly with 2 years olds in the filast 2-3 years and i had planned to back his horses in race 2 and 3. Late change of mind say me just do so in the 3rd race and going with Pure elation instead in the second. Annoying to see Enbihaar win at 10s and then my two outsiders get back and have no chance in the next.

Down hearted was another horse i though was way unders. Just not a winner

Shoals i would have to say in Caulfield but Itz invicible is a good thing and in a very small field reasonable value, so lets say Itz invicible I bet with a mate and he does all the actual bets (i can't manage online bookies - too dangerous) and i do the selections and email accross to him. I have cut and pasted above and edited to remove staking.

Some comments about today. I reckon Tosen Stardom i way unders. I think the track will favour front runners as it will be bone dry and leaderish and like last last year will come home but too late. Inside draw no help. Very disappointed Black heart Bart is out as i had him on top and great value. I also think Silent Sedition is too short.

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded). Caulfield Race 1 no 1 Goldstream win Race 2 no 9 Pure elation win Race 3 no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both win Race 4 no 1 Gailo Chop win Race 5 no 1 Shoals win and place no 6 Smart coupe Race 6 no 2 Super Cash win Race 7 no 10 Scarecrow and box trif 1,2, 10 Race 8 no 10 Tshahitsi and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord of the Sky Race 9 no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta JC Mark Zahra Warwick Farm Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper Race 3 trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit Race 4 no 7 O’lordy win Race 5 no 1 Sanctimonius win Race 6 no 1 Single bullet place Race 7 no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4 Race 9 no 6 Echo effect win JC Blake Shinn Morphettville Race 5 no 1 Itz Invincible win good luck punters!

Well that goes without saying but i don't think anyone was suggesting he play like JG up forward.

Without wishing to enter your dispute, surely his ability to chase down a mid like selwood is relevant in so far as if he can show agility/mobility/pressure acts in the centre square surely that suggests he can do the same when resting forward?

G'day punters. Sorry don't do mulits. Bookies love them for a reason. I use Winning Post for my form, have done for many years. Unfortunately it now comes out Friday morning (except in selected newsagents) meaning i have to do my form Friday night. It takes me a good 2-3 hours to from properly for both Melbourne and Sydney. I'll do my form tomorrow night/sat morning and post my best on Sat morning

I think you would find most coaches and clubs would happily not play any of the AFL sanctioned pre season games, precisely because of the risk of injury. The pre season games are icing on the TV right's cake. Here's my tip. the AFLX will, from next year replace all of the pre season games. Clubs that want something close to a dress rehearsal will play modified intra club practice games (eg short quarters, 8-10 on the bench, using VFL players to fill teams etc etc) though i suspect some won't even do that. Because of the reduced risk of injury to players clubs, whilst no doubt preferring to play no pre season games at all, will likely prefer to play AFLX games only to a normal pre season games

I for one am looking forward to it. More interesting than the jlt pre season games. In terms of injury risk again i point out the aflx fixture replaces one jlt game. Only 14 players ate playing not 25 (with only 10 on the field) mean8ng less playets who can get hurt and more scope for not playing specific players (eg you can rest all talls, something that would be hard in the jlt). Also the games are shorter. So all in all less injury risk.

Hasn't Lyon quit Footy classified (or perhaps was shown the door) ?

I'm not convinced. You have form on this thread.

Could not agree more. In this day and safe it is simply ridiculous to have such a poxy website. Made worse by the lack of any half decent content. Our you tube channel is even worse. I know pj has focused on the FD but he has dropped the ball - or more accurately never picked it up - when it comes to the increasingly critical digital platform and video content. Bad business and a lost opportunity to engage with new young fans. Kids these days watch online video content not tv.

Except the clubs who pay bucket loads for their data. But what would they know?

Insert why can't we have both gif