binman

G'day punters. Super tricky day at Rosehill tomorrow, a bit more straight forward at Mornington Best bet (and my best of the Autumn thus far): Gailo Chop- a ratings special if ever there was one. At 115 a full 6 points (and therefore 6 lengths) clear of the next best. Loves rain affected going with 3 wins and second from 5 starts on the slow and 3 from 3 in the heavy. 6 from 12 at the distance is not too shabby either. Has Zahra on board who is in hot form. Best value: Peribsen Best long shot: Ball of Muscle (with apologies to Fragonard) And if you want o make some some small change can't go wrong backing Kah in Adelaide for the jockey challenge. not sure what she is tomorrow as they don't put the market up until the morning, but i doubt will be much over 1.50. But she will win easing down. if she is much longer than 1.50 then good value

Yep, spot on. Goody has said he will pick his fittest side. And why not? You have near a full list at this time of year and players always blow up in the first few rounds. Tyson not fully fit or gus after surgery. Logical to leave them out. Maynard and wagner on the other hand have had perfect ore seasons and both are cherry ripe. And the coach loves both wagner and maynard. By the by i really rate wagner and agree he might surprise some if he can get a run of games together. He's a really good kick who when down on confidence makes some bad mistakes. Will be damaging if he gets a good block of games

Let me be the first to say i got it completel6 wrong on Tyson.

I think you've nailed it grey wolf - very lucidly too i must say. Agree with all your comments, particularly those about Tyson, Melk and Brayshaw. They are locks. I think Goody likes maynards'grunt and in some ways i see him as Viney's placeholder. The one comment i'd make is that Goody also really likes how Bugg goes about things so feel as if it is him or Hannan (who Goody also really likes - as do i)

Makes the 2.35 i spruiked (and took) a couple of weeks ago seem pretty good

If it's snowing we get frost

I'm in. My tipping name is The Phoenix

Complete bollocks.

sywhl i give up. You obviously cannot be persuaded by logic.

I never said they dont have any influence. Just not as much as some ie you seem to think. As i have said, their main influence is the days games are played and starting times (eg the thurs night game, tge sun 3:40 games which run into tge news etc etc). There us no doubt a huge element of the push to a twilight (and eventually a night game) grand final is the value for broadcasters. But you are plain wrong about carlton. So what they have been successful in the tv era. That is frankly a ridiculous argument that holds zero water. Their games DO NOT RATE. Because they are [censored] to watch and routinely get flogged. Neither their cups or dwindling fan base changes those facts. Ill bet london to a brick that if the game is a fizzer there will discussion in the media about how poor the ratings were and taking the game off them an

Earn it? By playing boring, no score football and routinely getting flogged. Speaking of flogging you are flogging a dead horse Carlton don't rate. Period. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-deliver-ratings-flop-on-return-to-friday-night-football-20170422-gvq6qn.html

I think you have been working at the ABC too long and don't understand how commercial tv makes money. In case that is true, i'll remind you. From ratings. Do you honestly believe a carlton v tigers game would rate better on Thursday night than a dees v tigers game, or a dogs v tigers or game or a swans v tigers game, or a hawks v tigers game. Surely not and if that is the case your argument that they would choose Carlton to play in that game (assuming of course they had that influence) does not hold water.

However of course they have influence on when games are played.

Because they are a business. Who make their money from advertising revenue. And their profit - or lack thereof - is directly related to ratings, particularly those in key nightime slots. And because they have shareholders to answer to. I say again if they had the influence some think there is no way carlton would be playing Thursday night.

Its not 7 who controls what gets fta coverage. It is the afl. Why? Because the afl control fixturing and almost every (eg all bar one i think this year) fta game is a stand alone night game. Sure they might have some influence on that fixturing but the afl make the call. Take 2016. I can't remember how many fta games Carlton got but it was way more than the dees and each bar the opener against the tigers was a ratings disaster. And no doubt that game lost hundreds of thousands of viewers in the second half as iirc they got flogged. Which is no surprise becausee they were crap. And played a depressing, boring brand of football to boot. Do you really think 7 wanted them to play in last years or this years corresponding match? As you say ch7 is cutthroat and it is all about ratings. As if they would choose carlton to play the tigers. Sure it will still rate well but if tge tigers [censored] them neutrals will turn off in droves. I have no doubt a melb v tigers game would rate much better than blues v tigers. Which game do you think neutral (and tigers fans for that matter) footy fans would prefer to watch? The up and coming side full of young guns, playing an attractive high scoring attacking game, hungry and looking to beat the reigning premier. Or the reigning premiers versus a dull, defensive team with few stars in a game likely not to be close. Please. It is a no brainer. 200k more viewers would tune in and even more importantly watch to the end. Yet who do the afl choose for the coveted season opener? Carlton. Who has jnrmac has pointed out have been crap for 20 years and are probably 2-3 years from making the finals. Go figure. Makes no sense and because it doesnt it is easy to think perhaps its not about membership numbers - and its certainly not about ratings - but influence and power. Which im not saying it is but geez louise it is hard to think of other plausible explanation.

Might explain why i became a punter......

Agree. The great teams show no mercy and smash lower clubs. They also manage to win when not playing at their best.

Sorry. But can't stand this argument. Mainly because not giving clubs reasonable access to fta ensures the afl will always remain locked into their stupid, but as it stands neccessary, equalization strategy. But even if you don't agree with this argument we were one of the most exciting teams to watch in the afl last season and this year will be even more watchable with our manic (yet attractive) game style, potential to score quickly and our bevy of genuine young, marketable guns. Our games will rate well. Certainly way better than the blues or pies did in the last two years with all their fta games. Which touches on anorher thing that drives me crazy. The logic of giving clubs with big memberships and supporter numbers better fta access is ridiculous,. One because it is really only relevant in Victoria and two, and even more importantly, in the scheme of things the extra 150k fans clubs like the pies or blues might have than say the dogs or deed is not going to create much more ratings for say a friday night game might which might attract 1.5 million viewers. And if like so many pies and blues game their footy is crap their extra fans won't stop hundred of thousands of neutrals switching channels and ratings diving.

Agree. And think it points to the most critical issue we need to address - our inconsistency game to game and within games

Punting throws up so many up and downs. Confidently backed Sprightly Miss as it appears many others to do. Won on int an it also got the me the early quaddie a couple of times (crazy small such as it was). Until it the protest scuppered both. Backed Unforgotten in the next and lsitedn to it on my phone. As it so often seems to lost connection with 600 to go with unfogotten at the rear and was annoyed i din't stick with my first thought, Renewed. Only for transmission to resume 30 seconds after the race and he he is giving the price for unforgoten. Crazy. The next in Sydney i came down Silent Sedition and Daysee Doom and zigged not zagged and went Silent Sedition and stupidly din't put a saver on DD despite the fact i love that horse. Did a wide trifecta with 7 horses. Would have got it, albeit with small percentage if i had not got greedy and changed my mind to chase the first four instead and box those numbers. And as i write the Answer my friend gets nutted on the line, which balance the ledger after Sprightly Lass gets there by a 'pixel'. Then loses on protest.

Well it hasn't been a carzy leaders track as it turns out - but still best to be up front. My others bets for melb are: Race 3 Demerrara Race 4 no 3 Metronome 5 Race 5 no 3 Hellova St 5 Race 6 no 4 He Ekcels 5 Race 7 no 8 Theanswermyfriend, saver on no 13 Burrrums Buzz Race 8 no 6 Snipfit and no 12 Filbert Race 9 no 2 Blue Tycoon saver on 1 Milwalkee

I did my form for Flemington based on it being a leaders tracks and if i proved to be correct was confident Holbien would lead and win. It looks like i was right about the leaders track and if so i could well be in for a good day as i have backed leaders from go to whoa.

G'day punters. Had a funny day last week. had to last at Fleminton to get a winner there but blitzed at Randwick to end up with a nice profit. Best etc today: Best Bet: Hear the Cahnt Best value: He Ecksels Best longshot: Latin Boy

Really looking forward to it. Never been to a women's game. Live in Altona and love going to the footy at Whitten. Will take my daughter as will my demon loving mate. Had a pretty solid bet on the deed to make the grand final, getting what I thought at the time to be the top odds of 2.20. So if we win I'll have another reason to celebrate.

Unfortunately the thread title is not close to being accurate. My worst fears in relation to this injury are a dann sight worse than viney not back to round 3.