DeeSpencer

VFL this year: 18 matches, 30 goals, 15.3 disposals, 4.5 marks, 4.6 hit outs (Lions often played 2 primary rucks). He’s discount discount Luke Jackson. Id be concerned he doesn’t hold up as a starting ruck, nor does he make a consistent impression as a forward ruck. But he’s well suited to cover both roles and I can’t imagine he’ll cost much as a contract or a trade.

I have more faith in us sorting the half backs if McQualter can get Troy Chaplin and our experienced defenders to loosen the reigns a little. Salem's always lacked a little kicking penetration but if we can get him healthy he's still one of the best ball users in the comp. And there's genuine competition/help in that role with Bowey, McVee, Rivers and Howes. Half forward is a different challenge. The Lions forward just don't defend to an elite level. That's why they aren't premiers. They need to get more out of their talls and Rayner (if he's the 3rd tall). Charlie Cameron can be spotty. Dev Rob is the only defensive worker and he's not amazing at it. They are actually crying out for an ANB like player! I'm not convinced we'll suddenly be blooding kids in the hardest position on the ground. Reid has undeniable talent so you'd chuck him in and live with it, a bit like JHF at Port this year. But McKercher is the type of midfielder who usually has to play midfield. Duursma's VFL form said he's a fair way off and I'd almost be tempted to start him off half back to make it easier for him to adapt. The Pies favour defensive half forwards. McCreery is a spotty attacking player. Lipinski. Adams. Even Ginnivan when he came back in came in to defend first. Midfield is the position we desperately need an injection of skill to balance things out. Seems we might be removing a player without great skills. Not sure if any of the top draft picks will be able to walk in to the midfield and provide us that balance from year 1.

No idea if he can coach, didn’t do much to inspire with his opportunity. Chucked the veterans on ball to help win a few games. But the Hardwick endorsement holds some weight. And the Richmond fast ball movement is something we badly need a good dose. The biggest McQuestion is what line does he take care of? Midfield would be favourite but forwards or backs shouldn’t be ruled out.

The 3 first round picks (and one last year) in any fair system would indicate they weren’t getting pick 3. And would arm them with easily enough ammunition to: Turn pick 2 in to pick 1 so they can celebrate Reid OR Trade up for pick 4 so they can trumpet having picks 2 and 4. The best thing for the afl would be North getting Reid and the Eagles getting Curtin and a stack of picks so they too can improve quickly. I bet they’d like Essendon out of the dog house quickly too. Now that Carlton are up and about they won’t want one of the big 4 left behind.

Grundy was overpaid for what he was - a decent starting ruck but no longer a game changer. The Pies had 2 decent rucks and needed to get the Grundy cash off the books. Harry McKay is still a 1 million dollar a year forward IMO, purely because of the scarcity of the position. Carlton are rumoured to be fairly tight to the cap but no one is saying they need a firesale to remove a bunch of cap space. I still think they're better with the 2 key forwards but even if they aren't it's a good problem to have and they surely wouldn't be desperate to make a move for less than the full price for a very talented key forward in his prime.

When the average player will soon make 500k it’s not that much. Im not 100% sold on McKay either but McKay and a rookie is likely a better result than 2 x 500k players if you don’t have a mature key forward.

Donald or David Cockatoo-Collins?

We've got the list spots and would be paying him to rehab anyway. I see it as him being the assistant forwards coach and working closely with JVR and Jefferson. Joel Smith too. If he makes it back to play and can contribute that's a bonus.

If Adelaide desperately wanted to win the flag next year - and crazier things have happened - they could grab Chol to fill Thilthorpe’s role, he’d pair perfectly with Tex and Fogarty. Then get Petty in at CHB who would drastically improve their backline. Meanwhile Thilthorpe would be a perfect fit as forward/ruck and JVR with another summer can play more chf. But the age of Tex, the age of May, how high the Dees rate Petty and how high the Crows surely still value Thilthorpe I just don’t see it happening. Nor can I see the Crows giving up Thilthorpe for picks alone.

We haven’t lost Brown (or T Mc) yet and even if we do their money probably stays in the 2024 cap. Melksham, at a minimum will be owed match payments for 2024, so no real saving there. Probably have to pay a chunk of Harmes’ deal to play elsewhere too. JJ and Hibberd, not big money there. At least half, if not 80% of Grundy’s money probably goes to finding a replacement. Im guessing we don’t have the space to bring in a big deal and there’s no point trying when it costs a stack of quality picks that we need to refresh the list. Wait a year and we can target someone and pay for it with junk picks!

Woewodin is a versatile midfielder with decent size. Not sure why he’s in that grouping. Sure, he plays half forward at times as most young mids do. Including Pickett we had 6 small forwards on the list in 2022, 7 if you count ANB, that probably is too many. But Moniz-Wakefield is a Cat B rookie and you take what you can get for those bonus spots. Pickett, back up AMW Chandler, back up/competition Spargo ANB, back up Laurie Laurie has looked to be vanilla at AFL level so far. But he’s far from vanilla at VFL level where his skills shine. I have doubts he can do it at AFL level but if he can find a yard of pace and strength he has tricks. So far he’s a rare Jason Taylor misstep but there’s still time for him to change that. Joel Smith was the back up to Hibberd in 21/22. Deakyn Smith was a back up lockdown defender. Rosman was trialled until last year. Kye Turner was added to the list to be an athletic 3rd tall defender. McVee was drafted and we got lucky that he took the back pocket role and did a great job. I’d be finding the best 188-192cm lock down defender in the state leagues and adding them to the rookie list this year but I’m not too concerned we’ve tried to fill that role with rookie picks. Same goes for Chandler, Bedford and AMW with small forward depth.

In fairness to the coaches he filled in numerous times at half back after injuries (they day Lever did his knee being one such example I’m 95% sure) and was excellent. Good defensive traits and strong marking for a flanker As soon as he moved there full time he tried to do too much both with and without the ball and his lack of feel for the position was found out.

Still in the race, but I think the Eagles are heavy favourite which might be why we pick off Jamieson. Flynn probably a bit expensive.

Our backline, mids and high half forwards were just about the same all year. And if anything less forward talent and cohesion should be a reason to move the ball faster. Watch how often our backs turn boundary side and go short to a winger or bomb it long. Often after holding it up. And how the 5 defenders without the ball will do nothing more than a token fan out for a switch or maybe point for a corridor kick. It’s a midfield problem too. Langdon will ask for the quick wide handball - but gets it less without Jaiden Hunt to give it to him. Hunter won’t, he’ll go straight for the 15m chip. Brayshaw will make position to get used, which would be good if his decisions with the ball weren’t either hold it forever or bite off more than he should. The other mids will at times but generally they just plug themselves in to the zone holes, there’s no coordinated movement to create gaps and then run in waves from kicks to them. In summer training we used Pickett in the midfield and he’d drop to half back to get kicks and light the ground up. Obviously that didn’t last in to the season. Hopefully it does next year. I’d try ANB, Chandler and even Spargo, Laurie on ball for the same reasons. But also hope we get more from Oliver who at his best is a dynamic runner with the ball (even if the kicking is a mixed bag). Rivers, Bowey, Salem (healthy) and McVee all have the movement and skills to make decisions on the run. They just have to work harder and smarter to get the ball, and our tall defenders have to trust them. Lever and May take intercept marks and rather than take the game on like Howe and Moore they call for a time out and stop the ball moving.

I mean, this, but the Suns

All aboard the Teakle train. Oscar Adams got the chop from the Saints, young key defender with good physical traits. Wouldn’t mind having him train with the club to see if he has something to prove. Flynn Perez is a player I’ve generally liked. Good size, good skills. 2 ACLs have hurt his development but there’s some class to him. I assume North think he’s a bit position-less. Bonner is an ok half back flank but is too much of a one way player for even Port. Not quick or skilled enough to really be a weapon, I’d rather go for a lockdown defender. Isiah Winder has talent, could do better out of Perth and in a stronger team?

Broncos, Vikings, Chiefs

I think those numbers are influenced by our players being very good at bashing it down the line and winning contests. And scoring plenty well that way against bad sides. But it’s really tough way to score against good defenses. And nearly impossible to score against good defenders when you don’t have the tall forwards. Apart from that there’s no joy or flair in banging it down the congested wing all day. We’re deskilling our players when we play Ross Lyon ball. Our forwards rarely get any quality service and our half forwards especially rarely get space to show their talent. Think about this: What kind of side would our backline like to play against? The answer is a side that moves the ball like us. What’s the worst nightmare for our backline? A side that can switch the ground and get through the corridor. Our backs have to take more chances and risk turnovers that hurt them in order to create more scores

Not convinced it was coaching. After hot first quarters both us and GWS put the brakes on them. Brisbane aren’t that kind of side so couldn’t hold them as much, but the Pies played a different game because they dominated inside 50’s but struggled to kick goals against a good Lions backline.

Run from behind is just as big a problem. We either have the laziest rebounding defenders in the league, or they are set up/working too hard defensive or they are poorly coached. I suspect a little of all 3. Should be drop for 10 push ups every time the defenders win the ball back and chip it 20m to Langdon or Hunter on the same with the ball came from. The ball has to exit our back 50 through the corridor or fat side and that means defenders and mids willing to run, handball and kick to the space not the safety of the boundary. The work rate of the Pies and Lions backlines when counter attacking is something completely different to ours.

They won because they played high pressure, high tempo footy that allowed them to play the game in their forward half whilst still spreading the ball to find quality scoring chances too. But they also got lucky with low quality chances turning to goals - Sidebottom, De Goey x 2 from outside 50, Crisp which bailed out their lack of key forward impact. Just one of those misses and they might lose and the question would be where are their key forwards? Brisbane got outplayed for most of the game and pulled goals from their backside with a demonstration of forward talent from Daniher, Bailey, Cameron, McCluggage. Defended their back 50 very well too. Overall the lessons from the game were you need forward talent and you need to play fast to score. But Brisbane need a forward/mids coach who can organise them defensively as much as we need one to organise our attack. They don’t chase!

3rd in the grand final sprint yesterday! He had an ok first year. Didn’t get much of the ball and was safe but not all that amazing when he did get it. Seemed to stick to the task defensively but there were plenty of times when he was just at a contest but not owning it with decisive marks or spoils. Once or twice a game he would have an intercept mark or spoil that would make you take notice. In the rehab group for most of last summer though so I expect we’ll know a lot more next year.

North Melbourne thought they were clever hiring Glenn Luff from champion data and trading with us in a deal they won by a billion draft points. We traded back a few picks took Pickett and Rivers and they were premiership players in year 2. They took Tom Powell and who knows what with the 2nd and 3rd rounders. There’s merit in trading down or back but right now we are in a window and could do with talent who easily could be ready in years 2 or 3. The other issue is you can’t control what the future picks are. We trade for a GC. Essendon or Hawthorn future pick and they could easily both finish top 6. Even with additional second or third round picks that’s probably not the big win. When you trade up at least you control the destiny of the picks.

Agree to an extent, I think a standard list of available pick protections (top 5, top 10) is better than allowing teams to get too creative. And that it should be only 2 years of future picks, spaced by a year. So this year you can trade current picks, 2024 and/or 2026 and that’s it. Nothing for years off in the future as it encourages hoarding a heap of picks in a form of tanking pretty much.

Pendles and Sidebottom will drop off soon I hope. Mitchell’s had a couple of important finals but is really close to being ineffective, just does enough of what he’s good at in tight. They’ve got some concerns. And their young mids haven’t been good so far, although I remain very high on Ed Allan. Mihocek was meant to be key defensive depth, he’s been excellent despite his quiet game today. Always competes. Howe was meant to be their gun forward, has become a gun defender. Not sure what the list build lesson is there. If anything I guess the lesson is take chances on guys with upside if they combine contested effort and athleticism. Bobby Hill a great pick up. Markov a lovely freebie on the day he was meant to sign with Carlton. McCreery a super pick. Would like to see our list team identify and take some chances. Kelly O’Donnell’s probably in to his long nap time though so I doubt we will