Little Goffy

Trigger warning: football statistics Interesting to see that despite many of his stats being a little bit up here, a little bit down there, most of them haven't actually moved much. Goals down a little, rebounds and intercepts up a bit. But the big change is a full doubling of his clearances numbers, perhaps partly due tot he rule change but maybe more of just a direct involvement in clearances after hitouts. Another interesting thing I stumbled across is that while so many of Gawn and Grundy's figures are amazingly close, Gawn thrashes the Magpie for the newfangled stat-of-the-day 'metres gaines' - 250 to 150. Make of that what you will, but like others, I'll be watching keenly on monday to see how thoroughly Gawn splatters Grundy all over the 'G, as he vents his mountain-troll rage at the disappointment of season 2019.

The gap between us and finals is only slightly wider than the gap, for Carlton, between last and not-last. I was still speaking optimisitcally about Carlton's medium and longer term prospects early this season, on the understanding that their cluster of young agile midfielders could develop in a wave, with Cripps and now Walsh providing the star-level core. But that optimism has faded for me, and more importantly it looks like it has evaporated within the Blue's themselves. Carlton supporters will be shaking with anxiety about the prospect of losing any of that handful of stars that keep the flame flickering. For example, Charlie Curnow might decide that the reason for his stalling progress is the team he's playing in (and when you're out of form but have still kicked a third of your team's goals in the last two rounds, you could start to think that way). To have him leave in a meagre trade when he is at such a low point himself would be just devastating for Blues fans, especially when they can already spend each round counting how many more goals ex-Carlton players have kicked compared to the entire Cartlon team. Garlett 3, Betts 2, Robinson 1, Kennedy 3, vs Carlton 4 Charlie Curnow might be a handy acquisition on the cheap, come to think of it.

Footnote, according to the most recent detailed research; (Injuries in Australian Rules Football: An Overview of Injury Rates, Patterns, and Mechanisms Across All Levels of Play Sports Health. 2018 May-Jun; 10(3): 208–216.) The injury prevalence in the AFL for 2015 was 156.2 missed games per club per season, and this has ranged from 116.3 (1994) to 158.1 (2013). With 120 total missed games already (counting the weekend since Gleeson's article), Nietschke and Walker to miss another 11 each, and a collection of four allegedly 4-6 week injuries currently on the books, we can already be sure of passing the average, even if we don't suffer a single additional injury for the remainder of the season. Yay! On the other hand, barring further injuries or complications from current injuries, we could actually have our entire best 22 available in about 5 weeks. Most of it sooner than that. My expectations for the final third or so of the season will be very high - I expect to see us performing at a level that demands to be respected and anticipated for 2020.

Hang on, that Age article is arguing that GWS' injuries are comparable to Melbourne's because they are ranked second in the 'injuries to best 22'. But the margin is almost 30 additional games missed, when GWS only missed a total of 61! The 'best-22 injuries' gap between the Giants in 2nd place (61) and the Bulldogs in 17th (35) is LESS than the gap between us and the Giants . I hate shabby use of statistics, I really do. If a proper journalist was to prepare an article like this, they would rock up to a market research agency with the offer of free publicity in exchange for a quick regression analysis showing the scale of correlation between injury and ladder position over the last 10 years, and settle the matter. Lets re-write the headline honestly: CRIPPLED DEMONS INJURIES DOUBLE AVERAGE, 50% HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER CLUB or SHORT BY A LEG: DEMONS MISSING NINE OF THEIR BEST EVERY WEEK

In his first season he had that warm glow of being a rookie kid who might become a player, and the low disposals and only occasional real impact was excusable in that context and in a team that was growing and performing well. But he has been played this season as if he is part of our best 22 and ready to go, which he just isn't. I worry this is a case of the early burnout of a kid, in the way that was so chronic and catastrophic for us a decade ago. Anyway, the second half of this season is all about development, reviewing the list, and learning to play well regardless of the immediate stakes or emotions. All things we need to do anyway. Like a four month review of the football department!

Honestly, I don't see the point in throwing more trash at him, he has been in only because of injuries to both of our first-choice key defenders. When May and Lever return, and with the development of Hore, return of Smith, and even the impending prospect of Petty overtaking him, Oscar's time and role at the club is in a twilight. Railing against his presence in our best 22 is about as sensible as railing against the continuing of season 2019. We know the situation, we know it will end, we know there will be a new dawn. Might as well as least let some peace flow in the meantime. Don't cling to bitterness.

Um, banned from sitting in the cheer squad, for three games. Weird situation where the punishment is trivial but also seems an overreaction. And where almost any reaction to this situation is in turn an overreaction. Does also have a whiff of 'quick, find a way to look like we are doing something about obnoxious crowd behaviour'.

I hate myself right now. I mean really.

Before we get underway, just a note that the inclusion of Hannan and JKH for their first games means we are now back in outright lead for 'players used' this season, with 36. Yay!

I think Picket is arguing for ratings based on total body mass, which certainly favours Preuss because he is both large and, according to rumour, a bit dense too!

Well, I'm going to keepy up the positivity and say, at least we get a look a several young players who might be terrific contributors in future when they have a chance to be the support instead of the core. And maybe we have also exposed a couple of players to the delisting knife, which helps with list turnaround.

When he comes back in, it'll be as a forward. Apparently he is great at crumbing.

No relation.

THE FINAL ROUND Some may say that round 11 is the halfway point of the AFL Home and Away season. But if we lose on saturday evening, it is officially season over for the Demons. Anyone familiar with my posts will know I am the last person to write off a season, but, here it is, win now or bake cookies for the rest of winter. Currently, bizarrely, Melbourne sits 'only' two games and a bucket of percentage (accumulated deficit of approximately 200 points) outside the 8. In a mad world, in a strange season, and with an incredible surge back to form, this is not impossible, starting with a solid win over the Crows. However, lose to Adelaide and the maths changes dramatically and decisively. St Kilda (5/5) plays Port Adelaide, ensuring that one of these teams will go 3 wins ahead of us. With the Crows win also putting them to 6/5, a loss for us this round puts us a plainly insurmountable 3 wins and large percentage behind the top 8, while also needing to out-perform 3 further teams that will finish this round on at least 5 wins. On the other hand, beat the Crows and they stay vulnerable on 5 wins, and with Hawthorn facing a rejuvenated Brisbane in Brisbane, while Fremantle face Collingwood at the 'G, there is a genuine chance that the final spot in the 8 remains in the hands of a team on just 5 wins after 11 rounds. There has never been a more '8 point game' this early in a season - if we take that slot, it will be because Adelaide lost it, at our hands, in round 11. With their coming games being against the Giants, Tigers and Cats, a loss to the Demons now will likely be the start of a downward spiral. It is precisely what happend to Adelaide last year, so why now have it be the same this year?

According to the latest public service announcements, if you eat this pizza, you don't love your kids.

Yikes, people are nasty on the internet, hey.

Allegedly, inside mid who can play forward line, giving pressure and tackles. Sounds good to me. Hmm, descriptions include being not so reliable at short kicks but much better with the longer kicks, including shots at goal. You'd have to think he'd be a shot to play this season (isn't that half the point of the midseason draft?), so the dream of having a full 44 players actually play in one season is still alive. Now that we've got him we can stop tanking and surge up the ladder, yes?

I thought it was hilarious when the calls came in for a 'comprehensive review into Essendon injury crisis'. Daniher, Smith, Fantasia and a couple of minor players with minor injuries. Boo freak'n hoo. At last count we are missing 11 players who would reasonably hope to be in our best 22 when fit. Plus a few more who might normally be those player's replacements. As for age, start with bonus points for Garlett (29) and Smith (28) only being out there because younger, preffered options aren't available. But that is perhaps splitting hairs. The fact of the matter is, we recruited a number of mature players (Hibberd, Melksham, May, and Lewis) to provide some experience and consistency to support a super-powered young group both to achieve now and to develop positively for the future. Right now none of them are available to play their role. Put that together with a wider injury malais that means we can't switch young players in and out on form, or even simplify or tinker with their roles, and it does explain a lot of the mess we are in. A lot, not all. Anyway, I am trying to take solace in the opportunity to see what we can make of the likes of Lockhart, Hore, the Wagners and so forth.

Ha ha, the question nobody gets around to. I think the answer you're looking for is 'will be better for the run'!

Clearly Spargo is in to pinch-hit against Mumford. Or possibly, somewhat more realistically, to hang over the shoulders of Heath Shaw all game to slow him down. In the end, we all know it isn't going to be team selections that win or lose the game. Not with a dozen players out and everything on the line.

He took a slowly sinking ship and made it adequate for a lot longer than anyone expected. It'll never quite be possible to judge how he performed as a coach. To many mixed factors; aged champions on the list, depth issues, successfulish use of free agency (Waite, Higgins, Dal Santo), a whole bunch of 'just ok' draft selections and so on. North and Scott have done the right thing by eachother, to allow both to have long conversations with people about what they do next. In general principle I think Scott could play a valuable at the Demons, but it would have to be after a whole lot of those conversations, because there's no doubt he's a 'big' personality. Could be an interesting partnering with McCartney, like some kind of misfit buddy movie from the 80s. Where would North be now if instead of Scott they had taken a coach who failed? What if it was Scott at Carlton and Malthouse at North, would we still be debating whether North deserved to exist?

Collingwood can't rely on winning this way every round... I have this strange strange feeling that in just a few weeks time they are going to be hit by a serious upset.

Commentators on radio just described the grass as slick, too. Maybe there's been a general vaseline spill att he SCG?

What is Woiwurrung for 'Do something about your ball-drop' and 'follow through properly'? Get a few of our players to memorise it in a second language, it might just stick, mindfulness style. For that matter, to celebrate indigenous culture we could definitely embrace a bit more of the traditional mentor-based teaching instead of the modernist classroom-as-factory approach, that's for sure.

Damien Barrett is often annoying but to his credit has always been solid on the need for consistency in umpiring and tribunal and that the first focus should be protecting the players. Even so, it was a mild surprise to see this on the afl website, part of his (often annoying) "If... Then" weekly article. Conveniently the clubs were in alphabetical order for this point...