Little Goffy

Ugh, this topic is making me mildly ill, just thinking about how impossible it is to assess list needs when every part of your list is so far away from what might be their realistic form. If McDonald/Weideman 2018 is the 'normal', then Anderson for sure. If Mcdonald/Weideman 2019 is normal then absolutely go after King. Same thoughts in reverse for 'if Brayshaw/Oliver/Viney' best vs worst. And defence, are we going to write down the value of our two big defender trades and go for yet another (such as the frankly worrying Keath rumours?), or plan for the better result of Lever & May getting preseasons and some form and structure together? Are Michael Hibberd and Neville Jetta still top-quality defenders who have had poor run lately, or are they both sliding towards retirement at barely 30? It even makes the later draft selections a challenge - what do we make of the likes of Hunt, Hannan, Kolodjashnij, Vandenberg, Nibbler, Smith, the Wagners and even Lockhart? All of them and more are hugely variable prospects, whether by injury issues or the sheer fluctuation from 'frustrating but useful roleplayers' right to pointless list-clogging depending on which season, moment or mood your happen to observe them. I do not envy Jason Taylor as he tries to organise a draft strategy out of this mess.

So, what you're saying is, he's been through the Bailey era and the Schwab continuous crisis, the tanking investigation, the appointment, failure and dismissal of Neeld, the selection of Roos and the process of Roos hand-picking his own coaching group, the transition to Goodwin and this year's mid-season purge, served under the boards of Stynes, McLardy, Bartlett and Pert, ... and yet he's never been subject to any real scrutiny. I'm impressed.

Israel Folau would look at the Melbourne Football Club now and for half a century, and immediately be inspired to quote scripture; I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation. - Deuteronomy 5:9 But I doubt there's any real danger of attracting Folau, we just can't fit the necessary shekels under the salary cap.

Well, since you're asking, and nobody else seems to want to, alright, I'll do it. But you owe me big time.

I think at this point it is very suitable to quote Bartleby the Scrivener. "I'd prefer not to". Sums up the situation, really.

I'm actually a little concerned that Fritsch is hiding under a blanket on the back seat of your car. He seemed to start well but has been completely missing for an hour. Did I miss an injury, or, is it just a Demons-in-August special night?

I know Melksham took at least one ruck contest. As well as either kicking or setting up our entire score. How is it possible for that to be the case when he doesn't even seem to be having a particularly good game?

That the bias in favour of West Coast has been sustained over such an long period is just completely horrifying. My first thought glancing acros the lists was to wonder to what extent it has ebbed and flowed within that 22 year period. Some years North did very well, some the Bulldogs scooped the free kicks. This season, for example, the Magpies are a mile out in 'first place' for free-kick differential, followed by the Bulldogs and Crows. Last season it was Magpies, North and the Eagles. It would also be interesting, but too much work for an amateur, to pick apart how much individual players affect the team balance of free kicks. Lance Franklin, particularly in his Hawthorn days, was notorious for giving away frees, even cracking 3/game in 2008. Joel Selwood only managed a measely equal 12th finish in his debut season, but has made up for it by finishing first in 7 seasons since then and never, ever, being outside the top 3. Having said all that, I think the free kick stats at footywire.com must be all messed up or something, because I can hardly see Adam Goodes anywhere...

Had a less than great couple of years after the major injury interruption which appears to have kept on pestering him through 2018 and 2019. Personally I still rate him, especially because he is a player who has proven in the past that he has an instinct for hunting opponents to get a tackle rather than just waving his arms at whoever comes near. Real question marks on him right now but I am confident of his resurgence. (touching wood regarding any further injury problems or complications). I do like the idea of using him a bit as a trouble-maker in the forward line. He has a deceptively good first few steps of acceleration and I'm sure would make a few opposition defenders a little nervous.

Would just Pick 2 be enough to get him though?

Given the make-it-up-as-you-go... er... 'spontaneous excutive authority' model of AFL management, I wonder if we could drop some hints to Gil that we would be interested in trading pick 2 as part of a deal to get King, and that way GC still gets to do their '1-2 buddy draft' without needing a start-of-draft priority pick. Ah, yes, similar lines to what binman just posted. IT all relies on shady deals that once upon a time would have been called draft tampering but which are now 'operations management'!

Wow. There are some people who really just believe the world ought to be arranged to suit them. I really hate the smug expression 'check your privilege', but geezus, there's a man who needs to check his privilege. This is even more inappropriate than the dancing in the Freo changerooms moment, that was at least just a tasteless celebration of a 'good commercial outcome'. Gil is actually putting pressure on a player regarding a significant personal decision.

Yeah, it would need to be a quality player, but for that part I am basing it on Gold Coast's serious need for mature quality. No good having all the top draft picks if they all want to leave right away... which bring me to the second point! I hesitated even as I posted because Ben King for 'new' pick 20 and 'move' of pick 8 to 2 sounds pretty limited. I think it is partly wishful thinking but also partly the problem of what can a club do when a player definitely wants out and as a club you don't have the credibility to force them to stay. Not without causing a ripple of irritation through other players. Half the club is eyeing the door anyway, there's very little sense of a club bond, zero tradition, and I don't think anyone really believe the club will become anything serious any time soon. It isn't really possible to stare down a kid who might very happily walk back into the draft the next year, knowing that they'll almost certainly land at a victorian club as they wish. Anyway, I just chose 8 to be the rebounding pick as a lucky number. Let's imagine, uh, 11 and hope that it seems more reasonable!

It's a funny pattern really, I'd say that last year's draft was fantastic right at the pointy end, but faded quickly even by the mid first round. Seems like this year there are fewer players in that 'super' category (hence everyone being crabby about the prospect of going from 2 to 3) but has more depth of 'quality' right through the first round. Presumably King would be a top-5 pick in this draft, it would be terrific to grab him knowing he was keen, and in a trade that kept us in the first round by shuffling later picks. Gold Coast's 15ish is a bit later than I'd prefer, which means there'd be a need for a third-club involvement, which makes sense if Gold Coast chooses to use their very early picks to bring in some mature quality, which they really need to do and which the AFL HQ would surely be pressuring them to do. Our top pick going to gold coast then on to somewhere else for a player and that club's first pick (eg. 8 ) which comes back to us while our second rounder (eg. 20) goes back to Gold Coast Us: OUT pick 2, 20, IN: pick 8, Ben King Gold Coast: OUT: Pick 2, Ben King IN: Pick 8, pick 20, mature player, Other Club: OUT: mature player, pick 8 IN: Pick 2 Am I in fantasy land or does that actually seem like a reasonable deal for all involved, in the event that Ben King definitely wants out? Sucks to be Brayden Preuss, though!

I am sure this news will come as a deep shock to many, and I think it would be best if the Mods closed the thread for a while so that everyone can take the time they need to digest this revelation.

If we were tanking, Fritsch would be floating around somewhere unclear near the backline-ish. Anyway, if we are tanking, what the hell are the Kangaroos doing? Aaaaaaaaah, that's why they signed Shaw. It was the only way they could get him to agree to stop winning.

And even available after the selections we still had! For the record, the latter half of the 2017 first round was pretty weak, and the real premium picks outside the top half dozen were in the block bookended by 24 (Tim Kelly) and 31 (Bailey Fritsch). In fact, aside from Kelly, Fritsch was probably the 'best available' of all options even from the pick we traded out. As for 2018 draft... as I've pointed out elsewhere, it is looking like a true misere draft except for a handful of serious quality at the very pointy end. From the pick we traded out (which eventually became 19, Liam Stocker) until the end of the draft, only three players have had any significant presence so far, Matthew Parker (taken at 47), Noah Answerth (pick 55) and.. oh hey, our very own Marty Hore. So, in Marty Hore, we pretty clearly got the best player of all those available at pick 19. So with the exception of Tim Kelly, that has kind of happened twice. Funny how things work out. Debate all you want whether pick 10 and 19 are too much to pay for probably the best young key defender available in the game at the time, but one thing is clear, the trade and its consequences are in no way responsible for how things have gone since then.

One does not simply schedule an extended outdoor activity in Canberra, at night, in August. The average overnight temperature is 2 degrees, and it typically gets close to that range within a few hours of the sun going down. Rain is a one in three chance on any given day for the month, higher in early August. The soil is always damp so the wind is always biting, and that wind comes directly off the highlands, continuously, for the whole month. I genuinely miss it. But since the AFL is supposed to serve sane/normal people, this fixture is just incredibly stupid.

The evidence has come through again and again that top picks aren't the decisive factor for a climb back up the ladder. Quality coaching and development, a bit of stability and confidence at the club, 'culture' and all that, are what counts. If anything, the AFL should be looking at ways to push more of the support resources to the weaker clubs, such as through the soft cap rules. Possibly also an expansion of reserves-style listings to bring in mature players as needed. After all, the goal of any equalisation policy cannot be to have all teams reach the pinnacle - but it can realistcally be to prevent any teams from declining to the point of lasting non-competitiveness. Of course, a sensible policy would also include a massive general injection of professional resouces into the second-tier competitions, greatly enhancing the depth of competant playing stocks, the diversity of pathways for players who lack AFL-level discipline at age 18, and the available depth and quality of coaching, medical and conditioning staff. But that's kind of the 'Carthage must be destroyed' of any AFL debate at the moment.

It is not his 'first position' but I agree that Wines might be of value to us as an extra bit of toughness and hunting inside-50, a little bit like the role Vandenberg is optimal for. So, obviously, Wines becomes more appealing in the event that Vandenberg retires. This is of course on the understanding that Wines would become a valuable addition to our stoppage options as well. Doesn't get us any closer to having the zippy goalsneak and fast-pressure players our forward line could use, though. Hmm, becomes an even more awkard shaped forward line, practically everyone in it except Weideman and McDonald is actually a half-forward or a midfielder-forward. Wines, Petracca, Melksham, Fritsch, Lochkart? Hunt? Hannan? What could be comedy value at least is to end up with a forward line that is basically just another midfield, except up the end of the ground. Centre bounce, mongrel clearance forward, stoppage, clearance, mogrel kick at goal, repeat. And our centres don't even run forward, they just wait across the midfield zones to cover the rebound, and ready on the spot for the next centre bounce if the plan works! Would be the ugliest game style of the modern era... but it could work! Anyway, Wines is signed at Port until 2022 and the article is a beat up - Wines is being given a week at SANFL level to be sure he is fresh and the decision was maybe a little influenced by the sentiment of keeping together the team which hammered Essendon on the weekend. Probably not much to see here.

Gold Coast just dropped Martin and Wright. So, they are either actually tanking or they are proving that no amount of top picks will be the answer to their problem.

Funnily enough, this link to another article has the tip-off. It isn't about the real value of your expertise or even brand, it is about who you can offer links to and arrange the wine nights with. Port Adelaide learning from the Crown Casino model of business networking and PwC wants in on the China creative accounting action. There's barely a veil on this one. At least it isn't HSBC, and there doesn't appear to be any wombat shooting involved.

I know it will annoy the hell out of a few people who will immediately have (valid) trauma flashbacks to missing out on Josh Kelly, but I am convinced that at least as far as late in the first round there are multiple players which would suit us quite well and have really good careers. So I'd be very interested in seeing 2 and 20 turn into, say, 7 and 12. I'm less and less keen on trading for 'pretty good' players on inflated salaries. At some point we're going to need to hit free agents hard if we're going to sustain a position as a contender, and I've dropped away from the idea that the likes of Hill or Langdon would make a difference to us becoming contenders. Cyril Rioli they are not.

Agree absolutely with the running goalkickers and the need for a genuine smart dangerous forward, but have to query the bit about history being against us. After all, we are the yo-yo demons! Our record over almost 30 years in seasons after we have won a final is 11th, 9th, 14th, 11th, 14th, 14th and this season. On the other hand, we've also gone From last with 4 wins, to winning to final (1997-98), From 14th with 6 wins to a Grand final (1999-2000) , 11th to 6th (2001-02), 14th with 5 wins to 5th with 14 wins (2003-2004). Even I don't have the patience to tally up the number of times our percentage has change by more than point up or down from one season to the next. I'd laugh about it except my head is sore from beating it against my desk.

Interestingly, that was alos a chronic problem at Essendon when Goodwin was there. I remember my often 'intemperate' Bomber friend just losing it completely a few times as the ball got passed around in their forward 50 until, inevitably, the turnover. I wont go so far as to blame Goodwin for it, but I do wonder if there's a little bit of carried-over 'learnings' that might be approrpiate to delete.