Little Goffy

An interesting side to the discussion about how much the proposed picks are worth - even though Taylor & Co. haven't always hit every pick (the curse of Nick 426 Smith lives on, or is that the curse of Nick Sauntner?), they've had an exemplary run of estimating where the drop-away points in each draft has been. You can go all the way back to 2020 when we got Bowey at 21 and had been desperate in live trading on the night to move up that tiny fragment to get Max Holmes at 20, instead of holding 21 and 22. But what is interesting is you could have moved ten picks further up and done no better. So I'd trust the club if we decided 7 and 8 got the job done. For all that, Humprey was pick 6 and has probably advanced higher than that in reckonings after his first three seasons. The complex problem he creates for opponents is illustrated by his unusual statistical combo - a contested mark per game combined with a goal assist per game. Which Hulk movie was it, where Jake Melksham says "If you could take what I know now and put it in the body I had ten years ago..."? Absolutely worth more than picks 7 and 8, and we should be thrilled if it comes to a straight swap for Petracca.

For the record, Windsor, Tholstrup, and Lindsay are all types of cheese. Harvey Cheese is also a cheese-maker in WA. Few realise that our drafting is based on themes; all talls are based on US Presidents, mid-sized players are all cheese varieties. EDIT: Realised the opportunity to add another irrelevant gif.

Trade value will fall somewhere between Sam Flanders and Max Heath. You heard it here first.

A 2027 fourth round pick? For real?

Anyway, here's a quick link dump for anyone wanting to form an impression; TLDR; Assistant at Collingwood for 5 years, development and then VFL senior coach, North Melbourne for 1 season before Covid cuts, then a VAFA head coach with great success, returned to AFL level at St Kilda as backline coach for 2025, is now a Demon again. Other fun details - he starting coaching just two months after finishing playing, and pushed out Craig McRae as Collingwood's development coach. Collegians was the best offensive AND defensive side in their premiership year under Rivers. "Considering when Jared was appointed in 2021, Collegians were languishing in the relegation zone, for Rivers to then win the premiership is nothing short of a masterclass." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Rivers - includes a lot about his VAFA time. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/12/13/the-young-boys-have-been-fantastic-new-saints-assistant-jared-rivers-excited - likes young boys. https://www.saints.com.au/news/1678585/saints-welcome-bolton-and-rivers - another article from joining Saints https://www.thefootycoach.com.au/podcast/24-jared-rivers-afl-coaching-and-playing-insights-applied-to-community-football - podcast interview about his career, including coaching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNkW7kjuOaw Interview when appointed at North, in November 2019 - kind of eerie in that he never really got to fill the role due to covid cuts. https://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/409955/vfl-bf-coach-jared-rivers-and-marty-hores-speech?videoId=409955&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1539039600001 - its a small world, Jared Rivers VFL coach hands over to his best and fairest, Marty Hore!

My heart is already warming for Alex Neal-Bullen's return in 2037. I wonder if Rivers and Hawkins will have the occasional one-on-one session? After all, they did play together at Geelong for a few seasons. I still (approximately) remember the glorious Riv quote from back in the day; "Dealing with the attention and now social media can be difficult sometimes, especially if you're an [censored]."

Does Aleer get his own thread? Should St Kilda be getting absolutely pilloried for making an offer to a player and then withdrawing it after the player has told their current club, requested the trade, and it has all gone public? Or is that just a 'Meh, St Kilda being St Kilda' thing?

My favourite stat people use for that is 'clangers'. A stat dominated by the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin, Errol Gulden, Patrick Cripps and, yep, Petracca. For as long as I've known football it has been the marker of the gun player given responsibility to make things happen in difficult situations.

What, do we only recruit coaches who have proven they can belt our players? That said, Tom Hawkins was a smart footballer with exemplary team-first attitude and a ton of insight into every aspect of key forward craft.

No doubt, but this is just to highlight how fickle the Brownlow can be and how fine the lines are. Petracca has the 'hot girl low self esteem problem' where he was so close to perfect that everyone began commenting on the remaining flaws. As far as missing a Brownlow, three straight kicks (or two straight kicks and one correctly adjudicated straight kick) and it was his in 2023.

I'm starting to think I have a chance of a rookie list spot.

Surely we'll be able to take it to another level before next wednesday, no?

If Geelong had an extra player on the field the penalty would be forcing them to wear an extra headband.

Multiple captains, club champions and a 2-time recent Coleman medallist on the move and everything is up in the air; The media [censored] circus; "We need more content! ChatGpt please create a rumour that connects the highest clickbait name with the most possible readers without actually saying anything." ... "Nick Daicos is of interest to multiple unnamed clubs."

I'll suggest that both justice and poetry demand that Oliver and Bontempelli share the 2021 Brownlow. Wines' win is not quite as egregious as Tom Mitchell's, but geebus, that was a season that favoured either-or between the dour and the loose. Anyway, just to confirm how much that little imperfection in Petracca's game cost him (and us) Petracca 2023 Rnd 10 v Port. 1 goal 2 behinds. If that is 2.1 we win the game and presumably instead of one vote Trac goes ahead of at least one of Butters and Rozee. Rnd 16 v Giants. Kicked 0.4. Still got two votes, but if one of those shots goes through we win the game, he gets three votes. Rnd 22 v Carlton. Kicked 2.2. If one of his gettable misses goes through we win the game, he gets votes and our late season momentum changes. (Side note, does the touched shot count as his behind or as rushed?) Three strait kicks and that's a Brownlow.

Voss, Black and Akermanis would like a quiet word. Judd and Cousins. Now there's a brutal analogy for Petracca and Oliver. Bartel and Ablett Jr. Anyway, in any given season there's at least half a dozen players clearly on par with the Brownlow winner who don't win it. It's nice to have but not a big deal to not have. See also Bontempelli.

I felt his comments were trivial and nothing to get worked up about, but can see how it rubs people the wrong way. His little bit of sulkiness does remind me of a traditional lament among child care workers; "You're mean." "I'm not mean, you just aren't used to being accountable."

Now fixated on Jed Walter being our Josh Kennedy. And surely with the McVee (now ooficially pick 23) and Oliver trades we'll have something useful (e.g. picks with high points value that clubs are happy to trade because of low confidence in the draft pool) to give back to Gold Coast. A deal involving Walter and a top quality pick coming to us while Gold Coast get a finals-tested star and an efficient stock of burner picks seems like a win for everyone.

Okay, so, will McVee be at this game? Supporting his girlfriend or his club? Hard times.

Pick 23 is a very good burner pick which might hypothetically sweeten a deal for a hypothetical club which might hypothetically be in need of points for academy players.

I don't know how Sam Edmund found a paddle big enough to stir [censored] that hard.

Good that he is an actually good prospect, because that name MUST be drafted. Behind only Yze for efficiency of scrabble hand. I would've thought his nickname would be 'Bjr'. Bjr Grlj, Cylbrty Srvyvljst.

I guess the question is; how many of our players underperformed in 2025, and how much of that was a factor of issues related to Oliver, Petracca and May? Was Petty forward persisted with because of some issue with May? Was the plateauing of Sparrow and Rivers even partly due to midfield 'politics'? How about our movement inside 50? How much of that is Petracca insisting on being the main man, nevermind Oliver being our number 3 ranked for inside 50s but not even top ten for goal assists - oh look, I found the stat Stephen King brought up in 12 minutes! How much of Simon Goodwin's stagnation as a coach was a product of distractions caused by managing these three and the layers of club politics that swirled around them? I'm playing devil's advocate here a bit, but there is an upside to them going, even if we get 'unders' in trades, and setting aside the 20% or so of our salary cap it frees up.

Clearly St Kilda's salary cap squeeze is having an effect, with Marshall wanting out to Geelong, a club which does not have that problem. Not sure it makes too much difference to Heath's preferences, though. He'd just be behind De Konig instead of Marshall. Plus... it is St Kilda. At Melbourne Heath would be behind only The Gawn and competing only with Tom Campbell for opportunities, and would have a clean run at the succession given Campbell's age. I'd argue we would also love to reduce the amount of time Gawn has to spend jogging around the ground, so the role of a genuine full time forward-ruck is very much there. IF the trade actually happens and IF Heath develops into a solid ruck, then it is an optimal scenario for everyone involved.

I always hated that there was a Collingwood player I respected so much. Good job on the club for solving that problem. Upsides; Can support and guide the young forward line while not directly competing for the spot for our 'true' tall forwards. Brings character and intelligence into the culture and provides support to the new coaching group. Is one of those players who continue to work at it, support the team structure, and require opposition attention even when having a quiet day. Presumably, not a huge salary. Downsides; Might play limited total number of games [because old]. Although the only time he has missed any substantial number of games was 2024, with a ruptured pectoral tendon. No history of chronic problems or recurring hamstring twangs. Touch wood.