Fat Tony

Was Disco Turner training? He missed for Casey on Sunday.

A low centre of gravity is an advantage when the ball is in close, but the game has evolved into far more of a running game since Peter Daicos and Carey. Heavy set players like Petracca and Martin are the absolute top of the tree, but having that elite power and also being able to cover 10-12km in a game is very unusual. I see Sestan as a prospect a bit like Darcy Fogarty for the Crows, who is in his sixth year and finally looking like he could break out and star at AFL level. It took Fogarty five pre-seasons before he was an accretive AFL player, so I think we need to keep our expectations in check for a while.

Expected Score takes the distance and angle into account and compares to AFL averages. The number of shots at goal and the quality of the shots are the best indicator as to how well you have played/the system is working. The actual scoreboard is subject to the vagaries of goal kicking accuracy.

I am confident we would beat very under strength Eagles with a smaller side, but the balance of our side looked perfect last week.

I have seen about half of the Casey game (first and last quarters). Howes looks a beautiful mover and has some star AFL traits. But he is not fit enough for AFL and does not give enough second efforts. When he hits the ground he takes too long to get up and he also needs to be more desperate in the contest. He looks like a young Jack Watts but he shows potential to become a star player like Hird, Josh Kelly or Gunston. Sestan looks nowhere near AFL fit IMO and is a 2024/25 prospect (if he makes it). He will have to really want it because he does not have a body ideally suited to AFL. He will have to become as good a runner as Petracca or Kossie (at least) and he's a way off, noting that ANB, Spargo and Chandler look to be better endurance runners than those two. AMW was a player who looks to have improved and looks one to watch. He plays with AFL intensity.

Yes. I am saying that Pickett needs to come in for a small forward or midfielder. If Brown is not fit or gets rested, then TMac or Tomlinson needs to come in IMO.

I really think those advocating for Pickett for Brown are making a cop out decision. We dropped a tall player last week and went smaller in defence. I hope we don't go that way again because it opens us up to being beaten if a tall player gets injured during the game. I also think we need to start using the sub to freshen up the squad for finals. While Melksham looks to be a good choice as sub, he will need to play full games as well (VFL and AFL) to maintain conditioning.

The scoreboard definitely flattered us.

The thing I am really liking about this season are the adjustments to our game plan for the MCG. Under Goodwin we have not really been able to create a home ground advantage. The 2021 game plan was brilliant and was ultimately successful but it actually worked better on narrower grounds. This year we are exposing our defence a bit more but, by using both sides of the ground and the corridor, we are able to score more freely from our D50. Year MCG Record 2017 6 W & 5 L 2018 7 W & 6 L 2019 3 W & 9 L 2020 0 W & 2 L 2021 8 W & 2 L 2022 7 W & 6 L 2023 2 W & 0 L

Does anyone know the Expected Score yesterday? It always feels great when we kick straight but there is always an element of luck. We had 33 shots from 60 inside 50s compared to Sydney 29 shots from 52 inside 50s.

Petty might be a better defender than forward and full back might be his best position in the long term. But we are in 'win now' mode and we need to experiment to know what our best side looks like in September. Jefferson is a 2024/25 prospect and JVR is only 19. They may or may not be ready in September 2023. The only key forwards to have kicked 40+ goals for MFC in the last decade were Hogan (2x) and TMac. Fritsch (2x), Pickett (2x) and Garlett are the only other players to have topped 40 goals.

TMac was one of the best at Casey, along with Tomlinson and Howes.

It is hard to make changes after that win but Kossie has to come back in. To fit him in, I would probably give Melksham a full game at Casey and give one of our smaller/mid size forwards a turn as sub. (i.e. Spargo, Chandler, Jordon, Sparrow or ANB). The other options change the balance of the side and I think the balance is right at the moment. If Hibberd is not fit, the options would be to include Tomlinson or to swing Petty back. But I would prefer to give Petty at least one more game up forward to see if the experiment can work. (I have been advocating for Petty forward and I thought he was ok yesterday without being a smashing success.) If Brown needs a spell (which I think would be a good idea even if he can get up for the match) we could just play a smaller forward line with Kossie. But, as I said, I would not be that keen on changing the mix of smalls and talls and so I would probably prefer to bring back TMac.

It’s happening I reckon.

Howes looks fantastic at VFL level and will be an very good player. But he looks like he needs to get fitter and stronger. I would like to see a bit more intensity in the contest as well.

Is Laurie the emergency sub?

Beautiful goal! He needs a bit of gym work though.

Ex Freo and GWS?

You can take the boy out of the city, but you can never take the city out of the boy!

From the great interview, while Griffiths confirmed that the players' loads do include extra endurance sessions at periods during the season, it seems that most of the additional sessions occur when the breaks between games are longer. Griffiths could have been cagey on providing too much information about this but I did not get the impression that loading can be used as an excuse for a lull in the middle of the year.

Big call to be trading down from #1 if Harley Reid is on a Petracca/Dusty level. While we can dream, I doubt Freo will be that bad. The other thing to think about is where Kynan Brown falls on the draft board? If he has a great year and rises in the pecking order, we will be forced to concentrate our draft capital/taking one of the top players, trading our pick out for an established player or pushing picks into 2024.

With Gawn out and May returning, Goodwin has a few things to consider. Tomlinson has been pretty good this year and Petty has been a bit down compared to previous seasons. One option I think we should consider is throwing Petty forward. JVR could also come into the side to replace the out of form TMac, although this role would also include part time rucking.

With Max out injured for a stint on the side lines, it will be interesting how we adjust our game plan. In the clearances, I expect to see Grundy take a lot of balls out of the ruck contests and our midfielders to be a bit more defensive. I expect we will go with JVR this week as our second ruck because he should provide a bit more energy around the ball than TMac can. (TMac's place in the side is also under pressure due to form.) Around the ground, our defence will need to stand up without Max's marking and we will need to be a bit quicker to transition defensively without the ball. Going forward, we will likely look to spread the ball a bit more, kicking to Petty or Petracca on the open side. (This tactic has worked well this year.) In a post game interview, Petracca said he felt we played a bit safe with the ball. I don't think that is right and we actually transitioned the ball ok. We were just belted in the clearances (centre clearances and in our defence).

Didn’t think you could make the hawthorn jumper look uglier but I was wrong.

It is now up on the AFL site. The Gawn news was uncertain but the tone was not that encouraging.