Fat Tony

We need to improve our forward line, but it could also be through another gun small/mid sized forward and our salary cap has to be tight.

https://x.com/aflxscore/status/1699775071773131035?s=46&t=JtnGf8t-SYhe1APrY99Fkg

Like our selections. I would go for Jordon as the sub. We need to win the centre clearance and kick straight.

The Dogs have enough points this year but would also need to supply 2024 picks. I assume the Suns will want to cover the points for 2023 and then pick up the most 2024 assets. It's the view that our 2024 pick will be later in the draft that hurts our chances of getting pick 4.

Hawthorn are reportedly keen on Duursma, so we might need to get ahead of their pick.

Really? I think our philosophy reflected 1) the high end talent on our list (Petracca, Oliver and Gawn) which we could build a premiership window around and 2) that we had obvious holes in our team. In 2017/2018 we had an issue with our key defenders being sub-standard and we used first round picks to trade in established AFL players (Lever and May) and drafted Petty. In 2019 we then lacked decent small forwards and traded forward to select Kossie and landed Chandler in the rookie draft. In 2020 we brought in Ben Brown. And in 2021 we lacked up and coming key forwards and so we drafted Van Rooyen. IMO our current team has no immediate concerns in any area of the ground. We could do with another star key forward but there is no 18 year old who is going to be that player for us next year. May and Gawn are both old, but I am not sure if we would be better off getting key backs and rucks in free agency. We also currently have talented young players who are struggling to get into the AFL due to lack of opportunity. Laurie has hardly played. Howes looks the goods at VFL level but has not been given a chance. Jordon looks like leaving. Spargo cannot get a game in his prime years. Woewodin has shown a bit. Hypothetically, if we landed 18-year old Jackson, Pickett and Rivers in this draft, how many games would they play in 2024? Is first-year Pickett ahead of Chandler or Spargo? (No IMO.) Is first-year Rivers ahead of McVee or Salem? (No IMO.) The aim is not to win Casey the flag. My view is not that we should trade back. It is that we should be open to it. A possible trade could be #5 for WCE 2024 F1 and #19. That said, draft picks are liquid and can be flipped around, so you need to look at total value of any package of picks. We need to make sure we spend our draft capital prudently and that does not mean we have to spend it all this year. I would also argue that our success in trading forward has meant that the cost has gone up as other clubs will be looking to follow our lead.

It is about price. We love our holiday house, but if there was an auction nearby and the underbidder then came offered three times its market value, we would have to sell. Taylor has proven he can find high quality AFL players later in the draft. I am pretty confident that our tall stocks are reasonable. Daniel Turner will be an AFL player and needs opportunity. May and Lever are still going well. JVR is a baby and is the lynchpin going forward. Petty looks good at both ends. Smith has proven he can be an asset. TMac has another year on his contract. We should look to the free agent market to replace Grundy, Tomlinson and Melksham. A young tall is unlikely to help us win the flag next year. Even JVR, who is reasonably mature, took a year to come into the AFL.

Lynch is set to be overpaid in 2024-25. I can't see how it works unless we give a high draft pick and get Richmond to pay some of his salary.

Like most on Demonland, I think Melbourne should be bidding to acquire the Sun’s pick #4. That said, we should not overpay and, if the price is too high, I think we should also consider selling off our 2023 picks (including pick #5) for 2024 draft capital. The Sun’s bidding process will give us a good idea of the market for very early picks in this draft and we might find that there are two clubs out there that are willing to significantly overpay for early 2023 picks. It appears that the interest rate being paid by AFL clubs to bring picks forward is way too high. Our list position means that we only really need to take one draft pick this year (plus upgrading Daniel Turner and F/S Kynan Brown). Our current 2023 draft hand is #5, #15, #24, #34. And with Grundy, Jordon, Harmes and Tomlinson potentially on the move, we could turn these assets into multiple 2024 first and second round picks. The list spots of Grundy, Jordon, Harmes and Tomlinson could be filled by free agents and with some of our younger players developing (Woewodin, Howes, Moniz-Wakefield and Laurie) the depth of our list could be mostly be replaced (except in the ruck where we can never get another player as good as Grundy to be depth). While we have obviously had a lot of recent success in borrowing from the future in order to hit the draft due to our strong selections, there must come a tipping point where the cost of the margin loan is excessive. (Our success in doing this strategy might mean that there are more and more copycat clubs who are willing to mortgage the future, further increasing the interest rate.) If we do move to extend our draft capital to 2024, one other benefit is that we could have multiple Deathride threads on Demonland!

My biggest concerns with Jefferson are his lack of ground game and defensive efforts. Key forwards need to be more than marking threats at AFL level. While he is going to get stronger, that’s not the only issue with his game.

This is going to be a challenging trade in the off season. Port only have picks #37 and #43 which will go out with bids etc and are also trying to lure Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher. We will also not want to put Paul Connors offside, but we need to make sure a fair price is paid.

Yes. Playing on Saturday means a 5 day break to the AFL final. The VFL is the competition under the AFL not AFLW.

This game should be on Friday night. Terrible scheduling again by the VFL.

Josh Schache has less intensity and just got another contract.

Casboult is old but is a free agent and is durable. He potentially fills two roles on our list. Chol would require a trade and is probably worth a pick around #30.

The key to getting this pick might be extracting Port's future first round pick for Grundy. The Suns will want to either: a) getup to pick 1 or 2 ahead of any bids or b) sell pick 4 for points and later picks. A package that includes two future first round picks (tied to Melbourne and PA) and points in 2023 will be attractive to them.

I would be looking at Levi Casboult or Mabior Chol at the Suns. Both could fill the role as a second ruck if Max gets injured for a short period but can also potentially play a role as second ruck alongside Max. I know Casboult would be a stop gap solution but it could be the difference between winning or losing the 2024 flag.

The Archer moves like a gazelle. He will be a top liner if he can get his body right for a full season.

Hopefully he doesn’t get hit by a Russian rocket before Thursday night!

I would be sending Oliver to De Goey at stoppages, as he is the key for Collingwood beating us. Oliver has been kept quieter than normal in the last two games and I think Pendlebury or Cripps will otherwise go to him at stoppages. Oliver is a good run with player and has done jobs on Cripps (R1 2020) and Bontempelli (H2 GF 2021).

MCC is 9am

May looked like he was a bit ginger after taking a mark with 6.40 on the clock in the last quarter and then went off to the bench. I think he is ok but is clearly battling late in the year.

May pulled up sore in contest at the end of the Hawthorn game, so he might be better off with a rest.

Goodwin also said that TMac is moving better than at any time this year. A mobile and agile TMac could be the difference for us come September.

Is Harmes injured? He didn’t play on the weekend.