Fat Tony

I am wrapped to see Laurie finding more of the ball, but Kade Chandler's stats are better. 25 goals in 11 games and 18 possessions a game. Opposition Year Round Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Hitouts Tackles Scoreboard Fantasy Sandringham Zebras 2022 R1 4 1 5 1 0 0 1.0 6 25 Essendon VFL 2022 R2 13 9 22 5 0 3 2.1 13 101 Williamstown 2022 R3 6 3 9 3 0 2 2.3 15 58 Coburg Lions 2022 R4 9 4 13 6 1 2 1.2 8 65 Richmond VFL 2022 R5 9 8 17 6 0 6 1.1 7 93 Box Hill Hawks 2022 R6 11 5 16 6 0 4 3.0 18 95 Southport 2022 R7 15 11 26 7 0 3 0.2 2 98 Sydney Swans 2022 R11 10 9 19 8 0 3 1.0 6 87 Gold Coast Suns 2022 R14 10 10 20 6 0 6 2.1 13 101 Port Melbourne 2022 R15 18 11 29 6 0 1 5.1 31 133 Geelong VFL 2022 R16 11 9 20 5 0 0 1.1 7 69

Why does it have to be in the draft? The strike rate on key forwards with low picks is pretty poor and it does not suit our premiership window. GCS picked up Chol (34 goals) and Casbault (27 goals) in free agency. GWS got Hogan (24 goals in 13 games) for nothing. Rory Lobb (29 goals) was available also. We might get Taylor Walker, Lobb or Ratugolea this year.

Ben Brown was poor before TMac was injured. He needs to start clunking marks and kicking goals because he is a liability defensively and when the ball is on the deck and he picks and chooses when to put his body on the line. There is a massive gap between AFL defence and VFL, both in terms of quality of defender and the team defence aspect. I think Weideman is likely to be a better bet this year given his stronger body and experience, but you have to trust the coaches. If van Rooyen plays this year at all it will need to be soon.

DISLIKES - BEN BROWN Ben Brown has been targeted inside 50m one-on-one 45 times this season. He has taken one mark from those battles — a junk-time grab on Marcus Adams (Lions) late in the fourth quarter. He has been out-marked eight times. The Demons don’t trust Sam Weideman or Mitch Brown and so it’s a mighty concern for Melbourne as the absence of Tom McDonald — the swingman they attempted to offload in 2020 — aches. On Thursday night the Dees took six marks inside 50m, their equal fewest this season, and the disconnection is also disarming Kozzie Pickett and Charlie Spargo while Bayley Fritsch has been accused of being goal hungry. Contrast Brown’s numbers to Geelong goliath Tom Hawkins, who gobbles 38 per cent of his one-on-ones. The next best in the AFL is Darcy Cameron (Collingwood), who marks 25 per cent of his one-on-ones.

The last full (shortened) game he played forward as well.

The week off before finals means form can turnaround quickly. Why do the shock jocks make such stupid definitive statements?

Not sure Dunstan comes in for Oliver on the big ground. We need the run this week. Hunt deserves to come into the 22, albeit I’m not sure Bowey out makes us better. Laurie played well in the VFL but Spargo would get 30 disposals and a couple of goals every second week at that level. I don’t see Laurie as an AFL player yet until he is strong enough to complete because he’s not quick or an elite long distance runner. Chandler would be an option to replace either Bedford or Spargo. He is more dynamic and has a good engine. I think our team will function better with another key forward, whether it be Weideman or Van Rooyen.

Great to see Laurie get so much footy. He should be getting 25+ at that level if he wants to push for AFL. van Rooyen will be a beast at AFL level but I think he’s a 2023 story. Woewodin has a lot of composure and balance and plays like his father. I think he’s got a future. Rosman played well in the last quarter in particular.

Good composure to come back and win after going to sleep for a half.

That boundary throw in went at 45 degrees to our goal!

I would have to re-watch (which I won't because we lost) to see if there is a solution other than Gawn taking more marks. I think some options would be to kick short down the centre occasionally. Or for a long option we could put Petracca and/or Oliver one-on-one on the opposite wing, with Kossie and kick that side and try to get off to the races.

May is kicking in long and left under instruction. Goodwin needs to loosen the shackles a bit on our strategy. Petty was free at the 50m line up the middle all night.

Deakin Smith shows a bit but he has an iffy ball drop when he kicks. I could see him being an AFL player in time.

For a fast break we obviously want to kick to leading players one on one and play checkers. But, for a slow play (when the opposition zone is set) having only one up means that the opposition can block our tall out and have their third man up take the mark. A lot of our set up is long kicks to our giant talls and having Petracca, Oliver, Viney and/or ANB at the front of the pack for the gentle crumb. Going inside 50 (when they have numbers back) the coaches obviously feel there is too much risk if we target a one on one with a short kick. (The risk is conceding a counterattacking goal.)

Scott is an excellent coach. We need to mix it up a bit because while our predictability was a strength initially, it can become a bit of a weakness if Max isn't marking everything.

Having two talls up in packs is deliberate and part of the game plan.

Agree on Jordon, Brayshaw, Bowey and Sparrow. The key question the coaching staff needs to ask is if we can win the flag without another tall forward. Bedford played well against the Lions but we dominated the midfield battle and this was the key. Last night, when we failed in the middle, we could have used another tall target. I think we need to give Weideman an extended run to get him confident and marking well.

Apart from Kossie, our small forwards are just good role players. I know we need a star key forward, but we don't have a great draft hand and it doesn't appear there is one in this draft. I think we could do worse than going for another small forward in the draft and trying to trade or use free agency for a key forward this year or next.

Chris Scott spoke about our predictability in his post match conference. He spoke about how we regularly have two 200cm players going up in packs and how they stopped it by making sure the crumbs didn’t fall gently to the front where Oliver and Petracca position themselves. I would like to see us trying a few things before finals, such as occasionally attacking with short kicks through the heart of the opposition zone. While we might give away the odd turnover goal, it would make us less predictable.

I was saying WE lacked another key forward because we failed to compete a few times. I think we went in with one too many small forwards.

Jordon had a bad night but has been excellent this season. I would not be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Salem has lost his drive and is only kicking 45m at the moment. I don't think we can put it down to role, which is not really changed.

I am coming around to thinking we need to give Weideman time to get confidence and find form if we are going to win the flag.

Hibberd looked every bit like a 32 year old coming off a 5-day break. He should have been rested (as suggested). The side also missed another key forward on the skinny ground. While this game was lost in the midfield, we have to be a bit smarter about selection on the short breaks. Our best 22 on paper is not always the best 22 to win the game. Since 2020 we are 1-4 on 4-day or 5-day breaks.

I will reiterate my call for Hunt to be played as a forward. Hunt is a proven goal kicker and our small forwards are getting out marked too often and Hunt will give a better aerial contest than ANB, Spargo and Bedford.