Here is my take:
With Gawn and May turning 32 next year, we need to put our chips into winning the flag in 2024. This might be the last big chance with our current list.
I assume our salary cap is very tight.
Firstly, I feel we must commit to Petty as a forward in 2024. He showed so much against Hawthorn and Richmond and is our best option in that role. While Petty might be better defender than forward, it is close, and he actually had an inconsistent season as a defender.
Joel Smith looks better as a forward than a defender and would benefit from a more settled role next year. I like his ability to play either tall or small and with Melksham out, he should become our main defensive forward option.
Melksham is 31 and, given he has done an ACL, I would probably make a tough decision because he will miss most of 2024.
Grundy will exit and we need a plan for a) a first ruck if Max gets injured and b) a forward/ruck to play alongside him.
We don’t have major holes on our list other than ruck depth.
While the forward line could do with a bit more class, Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch, Neal Bullen and Pickett is a decent core of AFL talented players. Shane McAdam could also be added to the mix. We just need a bit of luck with injury in order to get synergy and forward systems working better.
Salem is a worry and looks to have lost his power. Salem was never a big line breaker in the past but he gave us no drive this season and is only kicking just over 45m. That said, because Salem is a popular player within the club and has three years on his contract, I am not sure a trade is possible. While his form could improve next year with a decent preseason, I think we have to assume (in terms of list management) that he will never get back to 2021 form.
Langdon was found out in the finals series and we should be looking to upgrade on the wing roles. He lacks a bit of skill and size and is not that quick.
Hunter was better than Langdon in the finals, but is getting on and we need to plan for his replacement.
I feel we are too small over the field with Bowey, Salem, Langdon, Hunter, Viney, Pickett, Chandler and Spargo in the same side. We need to try and get taller, more athletic players in wing, half back and small forward roles to get better balance.
I am confident Daniel Turner will be a good AFL player, particularly if we invest games into him at the start of the season.
Howes looks like he has a lot of talent in the VFL and will be an AFL player if he can get a bit more intensity. He is not Salem’s level in terms of kicking and I am not sure where on the field he plays at AFL level. It could be high half back, wing or high half forward.
I think Woewodin showed enough to be encouraged. But I am not sure he has the tank to be a winger and probably won’t be big enough to play as an inside midfielder.
Laurie does not have the athletic traits we really need; especially given the issues we have across the field with size.
Jefferson looks a mile off AFL IMO. There are too many weaknesses in his game (strength, no ground level game, tackling, chasing and endurance) and I will be surprised if he makes it. I would play him in defence next year in the VFL because it is easier to develop there.
Harmes has declined and we would benefit from moving him on if someone will pay him.
I would like to keep Jordon, but only on the right contract. He had a poor final against Carlton but he is still likely to give us more than a replacement.
Dunstan should be delisted due to injury.
Ben Brown looks finished. It would be good if he would retire and give us some cap relief.
TMac would have to get 2021 fit again to get back into the side. I thought he was close to finished in 2020. Can the soufflé rise three times?
Tomlinson was good at times this year but really needs a slow match up. We should look to trade him to get salary cap room and find a developed, replacement depth tall defender (someone like OMac).
The effective interest rate on bringing forward or delaying draft picks is around 20% p.a. (i.e. it is costly to bring picks forward). We should only be willing to go up the draft order or bring forward our picks if we have a specific hole on our list (which we don’t really have currently) and/or we are targeting a specific talent. Otherwise we should be also willing to be patient and push our picks back and draft best available talent.
The effective discount on player trades is around 20% (i.e. player trades almost always result in the team receiving the player paying less than full price in terms of the value in draft picks).
The draft is inefficient and the player we want might not be on anyone else’s draft board. It makes no sense to push higher up the draft if we will land the same player.
Taylor and co have shown they can pick up talent without early picks (i.e. McVee, Chandler, Fritsch, Bowey, Daniel Turner, Van Rooyen, Petty and Rivers).
There are not may 2023 draftees that will make a difference to who wins the flag next year. There may be only 3-4 players in the draft pool who could move the needle.
So what do we need to do from a list management perspective?
Find new homes for Grundy, Tomlinson and Harmes and offer Jordon a fair contract and try and convince him to stay.
Delist Melksham, Dunstan, Hibberd, Kye Turner and Deakin Smith.
I would be going for a forward/ruck that can play alongside Max but also fill in if Max gets injured. I think Chol or Casboult make the most sense of the available options.
It appears we will land McAdam.
We should bid for GCS pick #4 but not over pay. I think our future first round pick is less attractive than other clubs and so we might struggle be the best bid. (We might be able to get the crumbs of any winning bid i.e. WBD’s pick #10.)
If the price paid for pick #4 is exuberant, we should look at auctioning off our pick #5.
If we use pick #5, take the best available but I would prefer not to take another very small player.
If Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan all depart, I would look at taking on Travis Boak on a low wage. We are going to need depth in the midfield (especially with Brayshaw under a cloud) and I doubt we will find better in the short term.
Here is my take: With Gawn and May turning 32 next year, we need to put our chips into winning the flag in 2024. This might be the last big chance with our current list. I assume our salary cap is very tight. Firstly, I feel we must commit to Petty as a forward in 2024. He showed so much against Hawthorn and Richmond and is our best option in that role. While Petty might be better defender than forward, it is close, and he actually had an inconsistent season as a defender. Joel Smith looks better as a forward than a defender and would benefit from a more settled role next year. I like his ability to play either tall or small and with Melksham out, he should become our main defensive forward option. Melksham is 31 and, given he has done an ACL, I would probably make a tough decision because he will miss most of 2024. Grundy will exit and we need a plan for a) a first ruck if Max gets injured and b) a forward/ruck to play alongside him. We don’t have major holes on our list other than ruck depth. While the forward line could do with a bit more class, Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch, Neal Bullen and Pickett is a decent core of AFL talented players. Shane McAdam could also be added to the mix. We just need a bit of luck with injury in order to get synergy and forward systems working better. Salem is a worry and looks to have lost his power. Salem was never a big line breaker in the past but he gave us no drive this season and is only kicking just over 45m. That said, because Salem is a popular player within the club and has three years on his contract, I am not sure a trade is possible. While his form could improve next year with a decent preseason, I think we have to assume (in terms of list management) that he will never get back to 2021 form. Langdon was found out in the finals series and we should be looking to upgrade on the wing roles. He lacks a bit of skill and size and is not that quick. Hunter was better than Langdon in the finals, but is getting on and we need to plan for his replacement. I feel we are too small over the field with Bowey, Salem, Langdon, Hunter, Viney, Pickett, Chandler and Spargo in the same side. We need to try and get taller, more athletic players in wing, half back and small forward roles to get better balance. I am confident Daniel Turner will be a good AFL player, particularly if we invest games into him at the start of the season. Howes looks like he has a lot of talent in the VFL and will be an AFL player if he can get a bit more intensity. He is not Salem’s level in terms of kicking and I am not sure where on the field he plays at AFL level. It could be high half back, wing or high half forward. I think Woewodin showed enough to be encouraged. But I am not sure he has the tank to be a winger and probably won’t be big enough to play as an inside midfielder. Laurie does not have the athletic traits we really need; especially given the issues we have across the field with size. Jefferson looks a mile off AFL IMO. There are too many weaknesses in his game (strength, no ground level game, tackling, chasing and endurance) and I will be surprised if he makes it. I would play him in defence next year in the VFL because it is easier to develop there. Harmes has declined and we would benefit from moving him on if someone will pay him. I would like to keep Jordon, but only on the right contract. He had a poor final against Carlton but he is still likely to give us more than a replacement. Dunstan should be delisted due to injury. Ben Brown looks finished. It would be good if he would retire and give us some cap relief. TMac would have to get 2021 fit again to get back into the side. I thought he was close to finished in 2020. Can the soufflé rise three times? Tomlinson was good at times this year but really needs a slow match up. We should look to trade him to get salary cap room and find a developed, replacement depth tall defender (someone like OMac). The effective interest rate on bringing forward or delaying draft picks is around 20% p.a. (i.e. it is costly to bring picks forward). We should only be willing to go up the draft order or bring forward our picks if we have a specific hole on our list (which we don’t really have currently) and/or we are targeting a specific talent. Otherwise we should be also willing to be patient and push our picks back and draft best available talent. The effective discount on player trades is around 20% (i.e. player trades almost always result in the team receiving the player paying less than full price in terms of the value in draft picks). The draft is inefficient and the player we want might not be on anyone else’s draft board. It makes no sense to push higher up the draft if we will land the same player. Taylor and co have shown they can pick up talent without early picks (i.e. McVee, Chandler, Fritsch, Bowey, Daniel Turner, Van Rooyen, Petty and Rivers). There are not may 2023 draftees that will make a difference to who wins the flag next year. There may be only 3-4 players in the draft pool who could move the needle. So what do we need to do from a list management perspective? Find new homes for Grundy, Tomlinson and Harmes and offer Jordon a fair contract and try and convince him to stay. Delist Melksham, Dunstan, Hibberd, Kye Turner and Deakin Smith. I would be going for a forward/ruck that can play alongside Max but also fill in if Max gets injured. I think Chol or Casboult make the most sense of the available options. It appears we will land McAdam. We should bid for GCS pick #4 but not over pay. I think our future first round pick is less attractive than other clubs and so we might struggle be the best bid. (We might be able to get the crumbs of any winning bid i.e. WBD’s pick #10.) If the price paid for pick #4 is exuberant, we should look at auctioning off our pick #5. If we use pick #5, take the best available but I would prefer not to take another very small player. If Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan all depart, I would look at taking on Travis Boak on a low wage. We are going to need depth in the midfield (especially with Brayshaw under a cloud) and I doubt we will find better in the short term.
