Fat Tony

It’s go time Demons!

Didn’t Chandler and Bedford have Covid though?

You are surely not suggesting corruption at AFL House?

But I would argue that the percentages have now changed by the way we are being defended. The kick out strategy of going long to Gawn on the back flank is being set up for by the opposition and they are leaving plenty of space and free players down the centre of the ground. An AFL player should be able to hit an open 40m target at 80-90%. By taking these relatively free options more often, our Plan A becomes a higher percentage play. Similarly, we are kicking it long inside 50 on slow plays to Brown and Fritsch in the pocket against multiple opponents. Often we are ignoring free players 40m out. When our better users have the ball (Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Jordon, Rivers, Pickett, Spargo etc) they should be given more licence to go for these kicks. The other option for kicking into a congested 50 would be to go for a torpedo. The problem with our rigid game plan for inside 50 entries is has led to us making errors on fast plays. Against Collingwood, the strategy that cost us was that we were kicking long to a contest and ignoring loose players, instead of playing checkers,.

Riccardi is too slow.

All 5 of our double up games have had a percentage greater than 104%.

The higher percentage the Pies pay of Grundy's contract, the better the picks they will receive.

He needed the run because he had not played for 3 weeks, but you are right that he might not be selected off the back of a 5 day break.

That is a discussion for another time and my mail is TMac is still unlikely. But I think probably Melksham will make way. I still think our best footy apart from our glorious September, was at the start of 2021, when we had TMac in place of Ben Brown or Weideman. That line up gives us the most manic forward pressure.

I think Spargo has been lucky to hold his spot this year. 9 goals from 21 games is telling. (By comparison, Kossie has 34 goals from 20 games and Harmes 12 goals from 16 games.) I know we lose a bit of skill from swapping Harmes for Spargo but Harmes gives us more physicality around the contest and flexibility and he wins a lot more of the ball.

Gunston makes a lot more sense to me than Grundy. Jackson is not a player that is easily replaced because he is versatile. Silvani did a wonderful job as a second ruckman on Saturday and TMac or Weideman can play the role reasonably well.

I could not make the game live this week but watched it for a second time last night. We were not quite as clean as we were against the Magpies but Carlton's pressure was excellent and it was a much better MFC performance than I thought on the night. Cripps was incredible and Silvani did a great job as a second ruckman. The Blues key defenders were tough to get through. I know we are consistent in the way we play but I think we need to tinker a bit. In particular, I would like to see us try to hit a loose player inside 50 rather than always kicking to Brown who is outnumbered. Brown tried hard and competed but he is out with his timing. I think we will struggle to win the flag if he can't find marking form in September. Oliver was undisciplined in the last quarter and needs a rocket. (The down fields were both soft but giving away a shot at goal for a tummy punch was terrible play.) Spargo's lack of size and speed means he struggles at times. I wouldn't be surprise if he gets left out for Harmes or Smith. We need to kick the ball to Jackson inside 50 more often.

Howes is clean with his pick ups and moves beautifully. He will be a ripper when he gets strong enough to play AFL.

McKinsey Football Club

Grundy was very impressed by the MFC presentation this week according to Sam Edmond on SEN.

Our form has been very good despite losing 2/3. They won’t get near us if we can go up another level, which is what I expect.

Personally I would like to see us include Harmes this week and rotate the sub through players like Sparrow, Jordon, ANB and Spargo. I think we would get a boost from these players being fresh and I don't think it would make a difference to our probability of winning.

Tom McDonald is a pretty good back up ruckman. I think Jackson is a unique player to replace and I think we would be better off trying to replace/supersede his ability as a forward rather than worrying about the ruck. If Max goes down for a long period around finals, we won't win the flag no matter how much insurance we carry. I think Grundy at $700k per year is a ok value, but he doesn't fit that well and we can put that money to a forward who makes us much better. Gunstan would make us better and cost similar for less years.

I think that Cripps was going for the ball when he took off but he also would have been pretty sure he was going to collide with Ah Chee when he launched. I can also make an argument that Cripps was trying to take the ball on his chest prior the time of impact. My main gripe is that he only got off because he is a star player in Brownlow contention. Anyway, we will still touch them up if we play anywhere near our best footy.

The Cripps incident was similar to this one.

I can live with Cripps action not being worthy of suspension. I can’t accept there being a different set of rules for star players than the rest of the competition.

One of the stats I would like to see is a metric which accounts the number of attacking and defending players inside 50 for each entry. The most valuable inside 50 is one with attacking players and no defenders, while an inside 50 with 17 vs 17 is much less valuable. This combined with expected score for each shot at goal are the most crucial stats in football IMO.

Both can be right though. Grundy plays best as a solo ruckman and we have Gawn on our list. Geelong don't currently have the same talent in the ruck. He would make them a lot better and might make us worse.

Can we please include the game time and venue on the first post werridee?

I think Goldstein is a much lower risk recruit. He is a better forward than Grundy and not on a ridiculous contract. Jack Silvani would be another option to go for to play second ruck. Getting dropped to sub showed he wasn’t considered to be in the best 22.