Fat Tony

Thomas looked like he could be Shaun Burgoyne 2.0 in 2021 and kicked 24.17 and averaged 18 possessions. This year he was hopeless and looked mentally all over the shop. He definitely has the potential be a good pick up and suites our needs well.

Weideman kicked 13 goals from 10 games (including one in the ruck against Adelaide and two as second ruck against Hawthorn and Brisbane) and was similarly effective to Brown in terms of scoring as a forward. Weideman is considered hopeless on Demonland while Brown is hailed as a champion. Both these players need to average 2.5 goals per game to be accretive because they are both hopeless on the deck and offer little pressure.

Ben Brown did not CARRY our forward line. 30 goals from 19 goals from a full forward in a team that averaged 56.4 inside 50s per game (3rd in the comp) is ordinary at best. Personally, I think Melksham did an excellent job keeping his man out of the contest when we only had one tall (plus Jackson/Gawn). The delivery and ball movement needs to be changed next year, but IMO Brown is just not strong enough and I doubt he plays more than 10 more games for MFC. Games Average Goals Bayley Fritsch 2.29 Kysaiah Pickett 1.78 Tom McDonald 1.67 Ben Brown 1.58 Sam Weideman 1.3 Jake Melksham 1.09 Christian Petracca 0.79 Max Gawn 0.59 Ed Langdon 0.57 James Harmes 0.57 Toby Bedford 0.56 Luke Jackson 0.5 Charlie Spargo 0.42 Alex Neal-Bullen 0.39 Jack Viney 0.36 James Jordon 0.32 Tom Sparrow 0.3 Clayton Oliver 0.22 Jake Bowey 0.12 Trent Rivers 0.11 Angus Brayshaw 0.08 Christian Salem 0.08 Harrison Petty 0.06 Jake Lever 0.05

I expect Hunt will be a similar player in 3 years. He is only 27. It is not a huge risk IMO. I like Hunt more than others around here.

I think Jackson is worth more than #1, but given we will only get 80 cents on the dollar here, I would have the Lachie Neale to Lions as the benchmark for the trade. The Lions gave up picks #6, #19 and #55 while receiving Neale and #30. This valued Neale at #3 in points. Freo's 2x first rounders is about worth roughly #3-4 in points. I would prefer we went for #14, North's pick #20 (for Logue), F2 & F3.

Just taking this marriage one week at a time!

Rivers definitely has the speed required. I think if the bench goes to 5 next year, we could potentially play him on a wing for 60% of game time. (The average would be 78%.)

I wonder if Rivers has the right attributes to move onto the wing? Endurance would be the big issue I think.

Is there a club out there looking for a forward/second ruck?

Great post. I would also add that I expect our salary cap must already be tight. And secondly, Geelong and Melbourne have shown that you don’t need high picks to find talent in the draft. Pick 7 might get us the player ranked 5 on our draft board, while pick 32 might net us the player ranked 15. Lastly, the value of picks is not as important as salary cap space. We picked the best player in the 2019 draft and are about to lose him well before his prime for less than we paid for him.

I think the player he is most like is Jacob Weitering.

Bowey should do a preseason as a forward to learn the running patterns of Spargo and ANB. He’s clever enough to go back to half back if required.

Our small forwards are ordinary apart from Kossie. We definitely could improve that part of our list. Another winger would also be desirable.

We should be also willing to accept a number of lower picks rather than just a top 7 pick and a top 10 pick so long as the aggregate value is the same.

Tomlinson has only one year left I think. And I would guess GCS will be looking to get a future first as part of a deal unless Bowes is on absolutely ridiculous money.

The Grundy deal is not a salary dump from our perspective, because we will not be overpaying him. The Pies options are to take McStay and a first round pick or just hold Grundy. Both are $1m hit to the cap. From their perspective, they are saying Grundy is better than McStay by pick x.

Grundy on $700k is a reasonable deal for the club. He was a top 10 player in the game. So I don't think a late first round pick is the issue. (Cap space is a much more important asset than picks in the age of free agency. We just don't get to see this because salaries are not public.) But I agree that he is not the best way for Melbourne to spend the $700k in our cap. We should be targeting a forward.

That’s for taking the full whack of Bowes salary. The first round pick in the Grundy deal is is because of the dollars they will be paying. We would be the club getting better picks if we were taking the full Grundy salary.

You can say that again!

Our whole game plan has been developed because 1) we had only one true winger; and 2) we wanted the opposition to kick it long to Max. I think you are bang on that we should be looking to get another skilful, running player on the other wing. But I am not sure Bowes is that player (there is a reason he could not get a game at GCS) and I doubt we will want to pay him as much money as he is on. Jordon, Harmes or Brayshaw would be better IMO. Hopefully Woewodin, Bowey or Howes can also develop and fill the gap.

Is Bowes a winger though? Plus he's on a good contract and the Suns are willing to let him go for cap relief. I don't see us being in a position to add too much from a salary perspective. Menegola from the Cats is someone I would look at if we are chasing a winger. He is also contracted, but it would be hard for the Cats to keep him if he seeks a trade, particularly if he misses out on Saturday.

I am keen for this to be trialled early in the year. Petty showed a lot of potential as a forward in 2019 and he has improved a lot as an AFL footballer since then. While we might be impacting our backline, Smith and Turner have both shown enough to indicate that we could adequately manage, particularly given we have May and Lever already there. I also think Petty plays the easiest position on the ground at the moment. Petty could go back if we decided it wasn't working (or there were better options in the forward line) and he would find it easy to adjust. I just think this is an experiment we should try next year before the last 5 minutes of the season.

The Bombers have realised the problem and that's why they targeted Dunkley last year. That said, you are correct that they look at each deal/draft pick in isolation rather than looking to find better balance. We certainly benefited from early picks and the initial decision to target bulls at the top end of the draft. (Thank you Paul Roos.) It is easy to go for the icing once you have the cake (Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney).

Playing all the games in one place makes no sense unless the AFL has a large number of shares in Qantas.

Chandler played well all season and will be an AFL player if he can get strong enough. Turner looks like he could take the next step, which could give us the option to play Petty forward. I though Smith was average yesterday but he has such great athleticism that I want to see him given the chance to take Hibberd's spot. Van Rooyen will be a very good AFL player. Howes had a very quiet grand final but I have seen a lot of the VFL this year and I reckon he is very classy. I would like to see him become stronger and it would be nice to see a bit more desperation at times. Woewodin looks classy but will need to be very strong to play AFL given his pace is average. Laurie does not show enough AFL traits for mine. He is a very clever and skilled player but lacks pace and size. I think Spargo will be better. Bedford was good, but I like Chandler more.