Fat Tony

We picked up Windsor, JVR and Tholstrup and have our next two first round picks in hand. I think we’ve drafted well enough to come out even.

Here is a summary for those who can’t get through the firewall: Melbourne has been "dudded" by AFL rule changes twice in recent years. First, the Next Generation Academy (NGA) rules were changed in 2020, preventing Melbourne from drafting Mac Andrew in 2021. The club had developed Andrew from age 13, but Gold Coast drafted him at No.5. It was Melbourne who moulded him into an AFL prospect, but the league pulled the rug from underneath the Demons, 12 months out from when they expected to draft him. Secondly, Melbourne missed out on drafting Harley Reid in 2023 due to limitations on trading future draft picks. The Demons made a strong offer for West Coast's No.1 pick: They put forward the most compelling offer – it trumped North Melbourne's best pitch – with picks 6, 11, 42 and this year's first-rounder (currently No.10) – on the table. However, they couldn't offer more due to rules at the time. The AFL is now set to allow trading of two years of future picks, which could have changed the outcome if implemented earlier. Melbourne recruiter Jason Taylor highly rated Reid: "If you look over the journey, players like Harley Reid are game changers," Taylor said. "We just felt that he's a really high-end talent, we love his character, the way he goes about his football." The article suggests Melbourne "definitely missed out on Andrew by one year and probably missed out n Reid by one year. Additionally, the AFL is expected to reform the bidding system for father-son and academy prospects: No longer will clubs be allowed to match bids with a pile of garbage picks. The new system may require clubs to use high-value picks to match bids for top talents, potentially including future first-round picks. Lastly, the article mentions potential changes to Melbourne's draft prospects, including father-son Kalani White, who might choose Gold Coast over Melbourne.

This sounds right, but he could have played on last Sunday as well if that’s what they were thinking.

Strange selection with Lever, May, Tomlinson, JVR, Turner, TMac and Petty in the side

I am a fan of AMW, as he plays in the VFL with AFL level intensity and pace. The big question mark on his game is his disposal and decision making, which is still developing. It will be interesting to see who he replaces in the side given one of Howes, Bowey or Salem looks most likely to be omitted as a result (or K Brown gets dropped).

At the moment, without elite speed, Oliver is an average midfielder.

I’m not convinced he will ever get back to what he was. The speed of the game has increased and I fear this year might be a glimpse into what we’ll get over the next six years. I see Oliver as an inside midfielder only due to his average kicking. And without elite speed, he is an average midfielder on big money. I can’t see us winning a flag without elite mids.

Oliver is not a good enough kick to play half back and he is not a great defender. And he has never shown himself to be a great forward. We need Oliver to win the hard ball in the midfield this season, because our midfield already lacks depth and he does not use the ball well enough to play in periphery positions.

They can only put 5 on the bench!

All the club's decisions should be made with the aim to maximise the number of premierships we win in perpetuity. Everyone agrees that Clarrie has been a superstar, but we need to make decisions going forward. Can Oliver, with his mental health issues and about to turn 27, come back to be worth the six year $1m+ contract? And will he be a good example to our younger players? Personally, I think it is a bigger risk to keep him than to trade him if we can get another club to pay his salary.

The stats sheet is diabolical reading. How can AFL listed players hardly touch the ball against a C-grade VFL side?

I would look at Jack Silvagni. I know he is coming off a knee injury but I like his versatility as a forward, midfielder and second ruck.

We will be lucky to get one second round pick and get off his whole contract.

We can win if we win the centre clearance (easier said than done against Brisbane but crucial at the GABBA) and kick straight. I think our structure would look better with Turner in defence and TMac forward. Tomlinson does not have a great match up even if Lever fails to get up.

Woewodin, Tholstrop and McAdam (sub) in for Laurie, Billings and Petracca. McAdam can also play VFL on Sunday if he does not get enough minutes. Rivers into the midfield. Langdon on the wing. Turner and Woewod in in defence. TMac and Tholstrop forward. Bowey, May, Howes Salem, Turner, McVee Langdon, Oliver, Windsor Picket, Petty, Neal-Bullen Fritsch, van Rooyen, Chandler Gawn, Rivers, Viney Woewodin, TMac, Tholstrup, Sparrow McAdam

Your point stands, but... Pickett has improved. I think you are harsh on Fritsch, Langdon and McVee, who are about the same. Salem is also about the same and has not been good since 2021. (Max is having a better year but I think the 'improvement' is due to being a solo ruck.) And Viney is actually rating more this year statistically (although I struggle to believe it). Sparrow has had much fewer centre bounce attendances but has been ordinary regardless.

A key argument made by those defending the performance of the midfield has been that the scores from clearances have been net positive. But a lot of that is partly luck (good goal kicking and/or good forward play in the stoppages). The raw clearance number and centre clearance numbers are a key part of our game we need to turnaround. Plus, we are defending way too deep when the opposition has the ball inside our 50. We need to squeeze up and take the risk of the ball getting out the back.

Luke Parker would be a good get. He was the 61st ranked player in the AFL in 2023 on Wheelo Ratings. He is not in the midfield this year only due to Heeney taking his role (and injury/suspension). Dylan Shiel is another veteran who we could us for a year or two and would cost little in draft picks or salary. Ash Johnson could use a change of scenery and has AFL level talent. I don't think he is the answer to our forward woes but he could be part of the solution. I am not against Rory Lobb if the Dogs contribute to his salary. He fills the back up ruck role better than what we currently have and we are in deep trouble if Max gets injured.

I think we will be able to shift money around if required and the impact is mostly in the cap for this year (when we played a man short on our list).

We planned to try and maximise our chances to win the flags in 2022-24, which made sense given we had Max and May entering their twilight.

But these numbers have already been factored into our planning. (I think Petty is probably on less than stated and Melksham is now a rookie wage. We also still need confirmation on Brayshaw.) My worry is that Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Salem and maybe Pickett have been on backended deals.

Oliver is set to be paid so much that we will only BREAKEVEN on our investment in his contract IF he returns to his All Australian best. Oliver was an absolute top line player when he had the power and pace to break away from stoppages. But when he does not have this, he gets caught and his lack of disposal skill makes him a big liability against the best teams. Can Oliver get back to his best given his issues and age? I think it is unlikely and I see that this offseason may be our only opportunity to get off his contract without having to eat too much of it.

The club would have already factored in Brown, McDonald, Hunter, and Tomlinson coming off the books (or taking less money) when they signed the Oliver, Petracca and Pickett deals. The Brayshaw contract is still unresolved and Petty, who is on a good contract for the club, still has one more year and may stay. We have been in the win flag mode for the last four years, which we can only assume means we have been effectively running over the salary cap by backloading our long-term deals. We can continue to do this if we think we are still in the flag window, but otherwise we need to U-turn and reset our cap. 2024 was our last chance saloon IMO.

LDU is a $900k player and our cap is already stretched due to the Oliver, Petracca and Pickett contracts. I see us as being more likely to shed players this year than to add them.

I cannot see us seriously competing for a premiership in 2025 but I think we should be aim to try to win the 2026/27 flags if Max can hold his form and we can recruit perfectly. But the key to list management is in the salary cap – that is paying players less than they are worth. At the moment, we have a few players who are being significantly overpaid. We therefore need to do a similar strategy to Collingwood when they let Grundy and Treloar go. Oliver’s decline is partly due to his poor pre-season, but I think it is also the speed of the game has gone past him. He has never been a great kick and the opposition inside mids are getting bigger and faster each year. I think we need to get off his contract, which has 6 years to run. He is playing like a $400k player, not the $1m player we are paying. I still think there are desperate clubs that would part for a decent pick and pay his full salary (like Adelaide or St Kilda). Salem is another player we should look to get off contract, which has 2 years to run. He has completely lost his pace and drive and cannot kick over 45m. He is not worth much in terms of picks, but I feel we would be better off putting his money into other existing contracts and freeing up money in future years. We are also better off giving his games, in the easiest position on the ground, to a younger player. Viney has also gone backwards but he only has one more year under contract. Unless another club came with a great offer, we are better off keeping Viney. May is another player who we might look to trade given his age and where our flag window sits. (I think he is probably giving fair value for his contract but he is declining.) Brisbane needs to trade its first round pick in order to land Ashcroft and May could be part of a deal (along with later picks for points) to get that pick. Any Petty trade with Adelaide needs to be over fair value. We know Petty is still a good payer and he is down due to lack of preseason and playing forward. I would not trade him unless Adelaide come the party, knowing that we will still get compensated if he leaves the year after. That leaves the following core players to build around for a 2026 tilt: Petracca, Gawn, Lever, Fritsch, Pickett, Bowey, Langdon, Sparrow, Van Rooyen, McVee, Petty, Windsor, Rivers, Sparrow, Chandler, Woewodin, K Brown, Tholstrup, Turner, Howes (and TMac, Viney and maybe Melksham as veterans in 2025). At the draft, we need to focus more heavily on pace and kicking skills.