Lord Travis

I'm still holding out hope for Reid. He's the game breaker mid-forward who could have an impact immediately while we're in our premiership window, and then take over the number 1 mantle in a few years as Petracca winds down. Curtin looks a gun, but he'll go before our pick 4, and I'd rather Reid at 1 if we trade up. Not sold on Duursma with pick 4. Looks very good as a half forward type, but was disappointing in the midfield this season. His stocks dropped this year as recruiters were hoping to see him take his game to the next level in the midfield and it didn't happen. Has been great since moving forward again though. Questions around his competitiveness and ball winning ability up the ground, and IMO you don't use a top 5 pick on a forward flanker. Sanders looks the goods, but will likely get handed to North through NGA rule change cheating by the AFL. It's absurd that clubs aren't allowed to match bids on NGA prospects before pick 40... but the AFL will just make an exception and hand him to the Roos! Not sold on Mckerchers ceiling. He's talented for sure, but he projects as more of a smaller running type rather than a game breaking match changer that you'd hope for with a top 5 pick. Could be wrong, but not convinced he'll be a star. Watson is a real goer and would be awesome paired with Kozzie up forward or to allow Kozzie to move more into the midfield. He looks a good option to me, but it would mean we have some really really short players on the list. Ultimate I'll support whoever becomes a demon, but I'm hoping for Reid. A Reid & Petracca combo is a hell of a fantasy!

The North compo pick really dictates the early draft. Their list manager (Rawlings) made comment yesterday that 'end of first round or second round compensation is not what we're after', and that they'd rather match the offer as a restricted free agent than lose him for that. They're really pushing for start of first round compo, so pick 3. If they got pick 3, then Eagles are less likely to trade pick 1 backwards and we'd lose access to Reid. Or, if we didn't trade up, our pick drops and we potentially lose access to someone like Mckercher, Curtin, Duursma that we'd targeted. Fingers crossed for us and the whole league that North don't get pick 3. On the potential for pick 3 for the Roos, in no way is Ben Mckay worth a first round pick as compo. On 2023 form, he's lost 41% of one on one contests, which ranks him as the worst key defender in the league. Outright statistically worst tall defender in the league. He's only averaged a bit under 2 intercept marks a game. For context, May has lost 21%, Lever 25%. Tomlinson surprisingly has been our strongest defender in the contest, and has only lost 12% of one on one contests and averages a bit over 1 intercept mark a game, including matches where he's been subbed off. If Ben McKay is worth a first round pick, then so is Tomlinson, and we all know neither are. I'm still hopefully we'll be able to put picks together to trade for pick 1 and land Reid. He looks like an incredible prospect and it would be so damaging and exciting having him form a rotation of devastation between midfield and forward line with Petracca.

That was terrible analysis and vision as evidence! There was no difference in the poor vs the good. Also “no one can go with them when they’re like that”. Bulltish. How about the midfield that piled on 3 goals in 30 seconds in a grand final with the most devastating centre stoppage work in the history of the game? I reckon they might be able to go with them…

He’s put on a bit of size recently but still has further to go adding more muscle to his frame. He’s developing as expected for a first year skinny tall. He’s shown he reads the ball really well in the air, contests aggressively in the air and is sound overhead. Decent kick and agility once it hits the deck. He just needs more time to develop. No chance of debuting in the next few weeks, but I expect we’ll see him at some stage next year, especially if we have injuries.

Looks like a blend of Sam Walsh and Luke Shuey in that clip. Very good runner and slick agility. On the smaller side for a modern midfielder and not an elite kick. He’s a good prospect but don’t believe he’ll be a superstar. Sanders on the other hand looks more rounded. Reid also looks to have far more scope in a variety of positions. Think Mckercher will wind up at North with pick 3 if they get it for McKay…

If they wound up with picks 1, 2 and Sanders there would be major outcry from the clubs. If that were to happen, I’d hope we go get in Larkeys ear and pick that carcass of a club dry. Such an irrelevant club.

Bont coming home strong and is favourite IMO. Trac in with a chance if he finishes the season strongly with a few 2s and 3s. Viney has been very good since Clarry went down and will get some votes too. If Taranto wins it, then just cancel the award. He's bog average. Racked up some big numbers, but in terms of impact you wouldn't have him in the top 20 midfielders in the league, let alone top 20 players. Definition of an accumulator with no hurt factor.

100% this. Smith is a liability in defense. He’s exactly like Frost was, a good Steelers but a poor and unpredictable footballer. Even May said as much when interviewed last year. Paraphrasing but May essentially said he spends more time trying to bark orders to position Smith than he does playing on his own opponent as Smith is not coachable. He also feels less confident leaving his own man as he doesn’t trust Smith to beat his. Smith either plays as a forward, a sub, or not at all. Tomlinson should be in his place in defence.

Tomlinson into the backline. Smith to the forward line. It’s the most realistic option with fit players available.

Ah MFCSS. That funny feeling.

Disgraceful effort that quarter. Defensive effort was poor and ball use was messy. Really shameful effort against a below AFL standard team. Hopefully Goodwin walked into the huddle and started backhanding them one by one to wake them up.

We’ll be second tomorrow. You beauty!

Nope you’re right. I forgot the 20% discount and just looked at points! They’d need approx 4300 points after discount. I thought it was a sure thing they’d needed to trade for lots more, but they’re not far off… If they get a pick for losing say Flanders or the like then they’ve easily got points covered.

That won’t be enough. They’ll need around 4200 points for Walter and Read alone. They’ll then need another approx 1200 for Rogers. They need to find another 2400ish points somehow. Trading with us nets them an extra 1000ish. They’ll need to trade further to make up the deficit. That’s how we trade up and land Reid.

Not enough. Also JJ is an unrestricted free agent so we can’t trade him. He can walk where ever he wants and our compo will be peanuts. West Coasts recruiter was interviewed on afl.com this week and said their strategy is to hit the top of the draft with as many high picks as possible. They want to rebuild with elite young talent coming through together. When asked if he’d trade pick 1 for two top 10 picks, he jokingly said maybe add another and we’ll start the conversation. Three is obviously too many, but two top 10 picks would be a non negotiable for the trade to happen.

JVR isn’t in any trade scenario. It’s been discussed in this thread already, but the plan would be we trade up to Gold Coasts first pick (currently 5), as they need more points to match bids for their 3 first round academy players this year. We trade them 15, 22, 34 and any loose change for outgoing players. That gives them more points they need and we get pick 5. We then trade 4 and 5 to West Coast for 1. West coast need as many top kids as possible for their rebuild. They’ll use 4 to draft local Curtain and another top talent. We draft Reid. That scenario everyone is a winner.

You have to sell the farm to get him, and on evidence it would be worth it. He’s a dominant inside/outside midfielder who’s played half back and up forward. He played more forward this year due to a head knock and easing back into it post concussion. He dominated everywhere and showed great marking and kicking skills to add the contested side and decision making. I said it a few pages back, but he’s the next Trac. To get him and have him learn from Trac and interchange the two between midfield and forward would be a devastating combo. Sell the farm!

I’d be keen on Gresham if he didn’t cost much since he’s on the outer this year under Lyon. It wasn’t that long ago he was basically Saints best player or close to. I had him in a work supercoach league competition and kept a close eye on him. He’s a good forward mid whose past year or two have been derailed by injury and clashing with Lyon as a coach. If his body is right, change of scenery could see him return to his best. When healthy and in form, he’s an upgrade on Nibbler, Chandler, Spargo etc. Will listen with interest.

Percentage builder to overtake Brisbane this week please

We’re on here!

****test result today. Looks like we’ll finish with pick 6 now. Means we won’t have ammo to trade for Harley Reid and we will have less points to trade with Gold Coast too. So this loss is a double whammy for us. Gutted.

Pick 4 looking shaky. Suns will get belted by Brisbane this week and drop below Freo on percentage. [censored] you Geelong. Pathetic reigning premiers can’t even beat a bottom 4 interstate team at home to secure a finals place. Absolutely pathetic today.

Good effort from the Blues tonight. They’re not going to be an easy win for us in a few weeks time it seems.

Yeah you’d keep pick 4 and take it to draft unless it can be traded for a proven AFL gun (eg a star like Curnow or young gun like Noah Anderson). We haven’t heard about anything like that yet so doubt it’s on the cards. Those 2nd round picks look pretty worthless for our current list stage unless we draft more speculative young talls and hope for the best.

Thanks for the post. I said in another draft thread that this draft sounded heavily compromised and it may even be worth trading out to next year instead. Your analysis showing how far out our picks could be pushed makes me think either we go all in on Reid or partially opt out of this draft altogether. Good food for thought, and I hope the recruiters are working through it with a decisive plan.