old55

It hasn't dawned on most Hawthorn supporters that they haven't bottomed out yet. Kennett thinks they'll be back contending in 2023! No Jeff that's when you'll be going back-to-back - spoons. Long may it last!

GO NORF!

Did a bit of a scan at AFLTables for the respective fortunes of the clubs this century. If you think we've been ordinary - well they have us covered in those stakes ... Since we played (and defeated them) in the 2000 finals series we've gone 176-3-275, Carlton 158-4-289

Bombers off a 6 day break too.

That's a pretty handy one wood for a KPB.

He was very ordinary at the Dogs but he's re-invented himself at Carlton and is a very decent key back. A good team with Weitering.

I wont be the least surprised if we lose and I'll be rapt if we win.

It's a great cause but quite frankly I think Port's use of the INXS song is a bit pathetic and yes I have been there and seen it live. You'll Never Walk Alone is owned by Liverpool FC no matter what you say about its R&H origins and it just feels all wrong to me to try to appropriate it. Sorry but I'm not a buyer.

Jackson is the most exciting prospect at MFC since well ... Oliver. He's an absolutely unique gun that we need to do everything we can to retain. He's 12 year dynasty material. It's too easy to forget he's only 19yo.

There's been at least 3 proposed replacements for Jackson: Weid, Daw or a mid. The final suggestion didn't have much traction but it was my preferred because of Jackson's ground ball and tackling influence being harder to replace that his aerial contribution within the remaining 21. I think just as they went for Petty and Hibberd when May was unavailable meaning Jetta got dropped, and then Petty and Harmes for Tomlinson and Baker. I think they may go for another balanced pair of changes and I can see the merit in Weid and Sparrow/Jones/Chandler for Jackson and Melksham.

I'm inclined to go for the extra small - Sparrow or Chandler for me.

I think that was 2 weeks ago pre-North, after that he's had us losing the GF. Squiggle really like good teams dishing out annihilations.

How about 6 factors that made me keep the faith: 1. Communication It's clear the players love to play for him and that has been directly endorsed by Brendan McCartney. Every player that we've wanted to retain has re-signed. We've got every player we seriously chased from other clubs (except Jamie Elliott who didn't move anyway) and they've invariably said "When I met Goody I was onboard" 2. List Management He's gone after the right players in the right order to strengthen our squad - Hibberd, Melksham, Lewis, Lever, May, Langdon, Tomlinson, B.Brown. Josh Mahoney deserves a lot of credit here, his list management was superb from trading players in and out, to strengthening our draft hand at the right times. And it helps having a great talent spotter in Jason Taylor. 3. Ruthlessness He's not afraid to make the hard decisions. He traded poster boys Watts and Hogan. He made Max sole captain. He was a very good player who got the absolute most out of his talent and it's clear he's driven. Where others see boring monotone, I see steely determination. 4. Game Style The contest wins big finals and that's the bedrock he's built the team on. Since the Northey days we've been flakey in this area and it was clear we weren't ever seriously challenging for the flag because of it - when the whips were cracking we wilted - but not now. Next he's focussed on defence - the second pillar to winning flags by replacing OMac and Frost with May and Lever. 5. Maturity Our best players are now up around the 100 game mark - Petracca, Oliver, Salem, Brayshaw, Gawn and, as above, we've brought in quality experience to augment them. It can also take time for a coach to hone his craft - look at Bomber Thompson and Hardwick. 6. Reasons. We've has setbacks along the way but there were explainable reasons for them, not excuses. I've acknowledged this year he's run out of "reasons" and we have to play and win finals and it looks like we're on track. I think the adversity we've faced over the past few years will ultimately stand us in good stead and remind us that it doesn't come easy.

https://live.squiggle.com.au/ - click on Forecast at the top Squiggle currently has us beating Port in the Qualifying final, Geelong by a point in the Prelim and losing to the Dogs by 3pts in the GF.

Squiggle has us finishing first: https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/ Click on "Melbourne" to see the other models' predictions - they're not expecting a drop-off.

"Richmond men". The greatest myth ever perpetrated in the AFL. They're in the image of Damien Hardwick - total campaigner! I cut Dusty slack - modest champ who plays clean.

It's too early to go there IMO. If we can win the next 2, which wiĺl be tough, then we will turn 11-2 minimum at the bye. That means 5-4 in the back half to frank top 4. Just keep winning! It's a long way to finals when we need to peak and we can start planning for that when we have at 14 or 15 wins in the bag.

Melbourne v Sydney 10 Tom McDonald (MELB) 7 Callum Mills (SYD) 6 Clayton Oliver (MELB) 3 Steven May (MELB) 2 James Harmes (MELB) 1 Tom Hickey (SYD) 1 Christian Salem (MELB)

Totally amazing that he played 21/22 in 2019 and 16/17 in 2020 then

I think B.Brown is going to be great for us. His reach is so long it's very hard to defend - it contributed to each of his three marking-goals in different ways. I also thought his defensive intent when the ball hit the ground was fine - he stayed involved. He worked up and down the ground and I think at times we committed too many marking targets to the contest. I think it would be better to keep one of BB, TMac or Fritsch deeper and draw a defender away from the immediate contest and provide an ongoing one-out target if we win it. I think that synergy can come when they play together more.

Don't get me wrong - I am setting the bar extremely high because I think he has the attributes to clear it.

Kossie has been generally great but when the heat is really on against Richmond and Sydney in the wet he hasn't been able to deliver. It's not going to be any easier in big finals, he's applying pressure and laying tackles, but he needs to find a way to win those hyper-contested balls - he's often over-running and fumbling.

I'm not sure on the details but superficially it appears to be down to Max looking at the stats. Hickey had 3 centre clearances himself - Max 0. They each had 3 around the ground. Oliver had 10 total - 9 around the ground, 1 centre. Max just doesn't seem to be giving a 2nd effort at the centre bounce to block for the mids. He doesn't really jump so he should be able to follow up - he generally wins the tap so he knows where the ball is. As @Lucifer's Hero observed he's playing massive game time - 95% last week and 84% this week - that seems excessive with Jackson in the side and 3 tall forwards and 3 tall backs. He's just not holding his marks around the ground either - although it was slippery last night and only TMac seemed able to - Sinclair dropping 2 regulation chest marks and even Steven May spilling one. I think Max is beaten up and needs to play less minutes or have a week off.

A lot of things to take away from that game, not least that we won while losing the centre clearances 4-17 and that will be discussed in detail elsewhere. I want to focus on one thing here and that is the magnificent game by TMac. I have never seen a more complete game by an MFC key forward under very difficult conditions. Four goals himself - all in different ways - first a classic get separation on the lead in a congested forward line, next a run down tackle and goal from a very difficult angle, then a weaving collection and run in heavy traffic for a great left foot snap and the delicious icing - sure Bolton probably won the car on Friday night but for me Tom's pack mark from four deep to seal the match was the greater mark - just awesome - his confidence was up and his leap at the ball was majestic. And not forgetting that he gave two great goals away - an unselfish great vision spot up of Ben Brown and the other to rival his pack mark - a magnificent running with the flight spoil, clean gather and lightning handball to Trac. Massive kudos to Tom McDonald - match winner.