old55

14 in a row vs 4 different coaches Daniher, Bailey, Neeld and Roos - the first part of that does coincide with their most successful recent period under Lyon and the middle part with our lowest ever ebb under Neeld. Since Goodwin took over we're 5-3. 3 of those wins at Docklands where we had lost 22 in a row.

I think the Dogs HAVE to win this weekend. Sure they've beaten Port in Adelaide, the Lions at Marvel early season and the Eagles at Marvel and Optus, but all of them are looking like 2nd tier contests. They've failed the real acid tests vs MFC and Sydney at Marvel, the real Richmond at the MCG and Geelong narrowly at Kardinia Park. They just have to win to put a stake in the ground and I think Beveridge is good at getting them up for a statement game so I think they probably will win. If they don't I think it's a major hit to their campaign. I looked for some pattern in those wins and losses against contenders above. They clearly won clearances in all except their win over Brisbane. They won contested in wins against the Eagles twice, the Lions and Port They lost contested in losses against MFC, Richmond and Geelong They did win contested in their loss against Sydney however I think the superficial take away is: win contested against them and win the match Looking for an explanation against Sydney - they lost uncontested in that match and were miles down on marks 67 - 123 which was the outlier stat as I cast my eye across the match. However they regularly lose marks - they are in the negative in differential across the season, and in games they won against the Eagles they went 86 - 127 and the Lions they went 63 - 110 so I don't think that tells the story.

I'm no Morrison fan, but Waleed makes an excellent point in this article: https://www.theage.com.au/national/fool-s-gold-believing-the-hype-nsw-ignored-lockdown-lessons-20210716-p58a80.html "The federal government could easily have decided that, given the urgency of vaccination, and the risks to public health inherent in a pandemic, it will proceed with AstraZeneca anyway. But consider what would have happened in that case. Eventually someone young would die. Then imagine the ensuing media scrum: “Prime Minister, why did you ignore ATAGI’s advice? What do you say to the family? Do you have blood on your hands?” There’s every chance the public anger would outweigh the frustration we’re seeing now over lockdowns."

Since playing us the Dogs have played at Optus, GMHBA, Optus, Marvel, Marvel, Metricon - it's not the ideal preparation for a cold and rainy MCG night match.

Everything is not rosy - I maintain our biggest issue is goal conversion. We won: i50s: 58v50 - Maximum team average is the Lions on just under 56 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=20 Marks in i50: 14v6 - Maximum team average is the Lions on 14.6 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=28&advv=Y Tackles in i50 11v8 - Maximum team average is Port at 11. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/team-rankings?CompSeason=20&GameWeeks=-1#rankingstable Scoring shots: 24v19 - Maximum average is the Dogs on 26.8, and next the Lions on 24.7, then us on 24.3 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=4 We definitely generated enough chances on a wet freezing night - but we failed to take them. If that continues we won't beat the Dogs or win the flag.

Wow, even more than when they belted the Swans a few weeks ago?

IMO the key problem is conversion. We won all the important stats last night by miles except tackles and that's because we had it more, but we failed to put on scoreboard pressure again. Contested, clearances, i50s, marks in i50, scoring shots - all in our favour. The only game we were properly defeated was vs Collingwood. Against Adelaide, GWS loss and Hawthorn we have gone 32.37 vs 36.23 11 goals total from 14 i50 marks vs 6 - something is very wrong there. Is it because we try to score from difficult positions with our play to the pockets or failure to convert straightforward shots or both? Credit to the young Hawks for bringing the heat and discredit to us for feeling it.

I said they should win their last 7 two games ago ...

I read on BF recently that Mitchell had 39 possessions and 1 score involvement.

Of course the AFL and everyone would prefer that the full 23 rounds are completed as intended and the full finals series played. What I am suggesting is an alternative to Season 2021 abandoned. Yes some teams will have more un-played opponents than others. When the extra un-played opponents matches are played, repeats can be scheduled for the other teams to keep the total number of games played by each club the same.

Metricon getting a fair old work-out with 4 matches scheduled. Normally a game every other week there.

In terms of a "legitimate AFL Season", we're pretty close to there now. The only teams we haven't played are GC and WC, we've played GWS twice and will have played Hawthorn twice after this weekend. The other 3 games vs. WB, Adelaide and Geelong are all repeats. I haven't got time to do the analysis but it's likely the other teams will be in the same ballpark. Everyone knows 5th to 8th are making up the numbers in the finals. Worst case, if the AFL really wants to get a legitimate season result they could concentrate on fixturing the remaining clashes that haven't happened and then run a 2 week final series starting with "Preliminary finals" 1st v 4th and 2nd v 3rd - winners to the GF.

I heard on the AFL Daily Podcast that it's #Hornethorn

You also said we'd lose to Essendon and Port. How predictable.

The game time is most likely driven by The Dogs playing Sunday.

"Freedom of choice is what you've got. Freedom from choice is what you want"

This feels very different to 2004 to me.

That is correct - NO Free Kick - like in the Harmes instance vs Essendon when their whingers totally lost their sh*t

Brayshaw has only one tempo and loudness - always straining and horrible to listen to.

The VFL commentary was good in Casey vs Essendon - they just called the game and interpreted what was happening. I didn't mind Mark Soderstrom as boundary rider - his interviews were quite good and he doesn't seem biased.

Agree with this.

I think the Adelaide journos were good in the after match. MR was asking some intelligent questions.

We won because we brought the pressure. Viney 10 tackles.

About to get very interesting up there: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-08/coronavirus-sydney-cases-move-from-east-to-west/100275722 "We're trying damned hard at the moment to make sure that we can use every effort to suppress that virus, and right now is a critical time," Health Minister Brad Hazzard said yesterday. "If the individuals that we need don't hear Dr Chant's message and don't respond, then at some point we're going to move to a stage where we're going to have to accept that the virus has a life which will continue in the community."

Brown is a welcome addition because our conversion has been down. But the real issue is centre clearances. If Wines, Boak and Drew touch us up in centre clearances like GWS did then we won't win. Drew appears to be the defensive option - his tackle numbers are high but he can win his own clearances. I think we need a different mix from Petracca, Oliver and Viney this week and I would send Harmes to one of Wines or Boak. Drew probably goes to Petracca or Oliver. That leaves say Wines and Oliver head to head. If we can neutralise the centre clearance disparity we can win.