Jjrogan

The blinkers on Oliver around here is simply next level. He was putrid at times. Dude doesnt even bother trying to kick a drop punt at times. Lol. Yea nah free pass.

Its tough when you lose the number 1 tap ruckman and an i50 contested marking beast and the competitions best down the line target and an intercept defender and your captain in the first few minutes. That's 5 players you have to cover. Take a look at the replay of that last 8 minutes in the 1st and tell me Max wouldnt have featured in every one of those scenarios. After quarter time we regouped with our structure but still got belted in contested clearances from stoppages so always playing catch up. That Ashcroft kid can play jeepers.

Hawkins plays for free more or less this year. Under 300k was speculated. If true, he's the reason why Geelong seems to have so much cap space

I like Milkshake as the Sub. The pace and heat is off late third and last. His pressure or lack thereof is not as much as a factor and the ground is bigger with tired players so he can hit open targets (such as goals from 60m out). He gets 5 to 7 touches in a last quarter, it will lead to points.

I would be shocked if McVee gets dropped. Hes gone from an unknown to playing rd 1 in a top 2 side in a heartbeat because the coaches know he's something special. Before his baulk on Libba there was a contest on the wing where we have a 2 on 1. He does the sums in his head and subtly runs in front of naughton to block his line of sight to the ball (and not to give away a free kick). Then releases just when Petty picks up knowing he is the option forward of the ball. It was all just so smooth. Also he has great 3 step acceleration and he hits targets. This kid is something special. Give him the role on Cameron to start, lets see his ceiling.

Anyone else pinch themselves when brodie grundy does brodie grundy things? Opposition teams have no chance frankly if these ruckmen are fit. How good.

Lobb and Darcy are average to below average forwards. Juh is athletic so can have a purple patch. But its not Brown Bradshaw and Lynch out there. Naughton is the worry. He is a freak, can pull them down from anywhere regardless of 'delivery' or midfield pressure. He doesnt goes nuts on us for 4 quarters cause May has his number. I'm not sure any of the others do. Id def want someone with experience on him Petty or Tmac.

They have a 5 time all Australian basically playing for free. Maybe when he retires.

Every year the bookies have it severely wrong on a team and this year it might be Richmond. Last year they played hawks, carlton port, essendon, west coast twice. This was 9 of their 13 wins. As a team on decline (after a great dynasty) they were still good enough to beat the younger sides. But against the top teams they dont have all the bases covered. 1 year on, harder draw, weaker sides are stronger and sorry not enough A-listers coming through. They may squeeze into the eight but they are 1 or 2 injuries away from 7-15.

Spargo's attempt at goal in the 2nd quarter with about 6 minutes left hit the post. Chandler was pushed in the back in the goal square. Gawn followed up took the advantage and kicked the goal. Commentators were day dreaming at the time so it wasnt clearly broadcast.

I cannot fathom how a trade gets done with Port. Their first pick is in the 30s. There's only one player on their list you'd consider trading for and there's a snowflake's chance in h*ll they'll trade him. The rest of their kids wouldnt even get a game in our 1sts. At that point you may as well play hard ball and let him walk to the PSD. Adelaide has a top 5 pick but given they just lifted Rankine, its unlikely. Freo, no draft currency. West Coast have a top 5 pick, but not sure that's their most pressing need right now. Leaving this year is going to be a major stress point for everyone, primarily him. He should re-sign for another 2 years, bank a few more finals and then reassess the landscape. His value wont have receded.

Simple back of envelope probabilities which is all you can really model in this type of stuff imo. Assume that games less than 2 goals are 50/50 propositions. (Sure, if one is clearly more biased to win this isnt exactly true but its going to be darn close here. Collingwoods non-close games percentage was around 100 anyway) You can apply the binomial distribution... equivalent of saying toss a coin 12 times (12 regular season games) and getting 11 heads (a win) 11 wins - 0.29 percent 10 wins - 1.6 percent For their 11-3 overall record it would be 2.2 percent. Ok, not hugely freakish but still its a once in a lifetime season more or less. I think Frano still owns the crown.

Collingwood had a percentage of 104 last year. Could easily miss in 2023 with a harder draw. Heck, take 2 goals off them last year, they would have missed and no one would be talking top 8 this year. It was a statistically freakish season. Caveat being that teenager who can play a bit will be even better. Sydney, though well coached, got pants-ed in a GF. The recent history on this isnt good. Hard to see but in hindsight it may be yea, they lost it mentally.

Hard to see them missing top 4. Much like mfc, the rest of the competition will be trying to work out how to beat them. Last year, they were 12-0 with a percentage of 200 in games they won uncontested posessions. They had a percentage of 114 and lost 4 games when they lost uncontested. Makes sense, list comprised of elite contested ball winners/markers and aging midfielders. Reckon to beat them have to be daring. Spread, run, carry, handball. Collingwood, basically. Er, not us.

If Jackson doesnt kick 40 plus goals they will be be mid table. Shades of MFC in 2019. Lost a key forward and even though have a young midfield group, they wont find the goals to save themselves. Simply not enough marking talent forward of centre. Ding Dong seems to think Jackson was played out of position and he should be up forward. If he's right (or Taberner has one out of the box) they'll be ok. But if he's wrong, a team that couldn't kick 10 goals in a game nine times last year aint going to be lighting up score boards. 7th to 12th and top 10 draft pick here we come.

In one's darkest moments, we can always close our eyes and think of Essendon's list and generational performance. Thank the maker.

Freo will go backwards. To make consistent top 4, you need consistent goal kickers. They just lost their highest with 36. Unless they find someone to kick 50+ theyll be no better than this year and will fall back to the pack with a harder draw.

Petty has shown absolutely nothing up forward except for taking some strong marks and kicking goals in late 2019 and then playing for the last 5 minutes of 2022 and taking strong marks and goal. Narrow minded coaching that it wasnt at least tried in 2022. When something isnt working you try things that might. I dont see how people can suggest its robbing peter to pay paul when it hasnt even been tested yet. Make that comment after the evidence is presented. Its ok to give it a shot and be wrong. Eg. Fritta at half back.

Certain teams were clearly tanking the trade period this year. So obvious. Imv the fixture is going to cause a lot of controversy when its released. Norf, Eagles, Hawks and Giants won 2 games between them in the last month of football and all of them have worst (or stagnant) lists heading into 2023. Playing only 1 of them twice v playing 3/4 of them twice will be worth 2 to 3 wins, which is huge.

Agree, but I personally temper the expectations of Grundy/Gawn and ruck dominance v clearances and wins. I can almost read now the gnashing of teeth when we a) win ruck taps b) dont win clearances c) dont win the game. Pies lost a game to the Lions winning the ruck taps 63 to 4, barely winning the clearances. Every team tries to be less 'predictable' but once the ball hits the ground its too random. Thats why tap ruckman aren't that valuable. Doggies, Lions have been the best clearances for 2 years. (Mfc 5th) Grundy's benefit will be around the ground where he's a genuine 4-quarter contested midfielder unlike present day LJ (and marking target through the corridor) and freeing up Gawn to clunk a few marks inside 50. Gawn will draw 2 defenders every time the ball is kicked forward into 50, he's simply too good one on one under a half decent kick. I think the duo is being undersold right now, its going to give opposition coaches and ruckman nightmares.

Speaking of pick 37. Harrison Petty says hi. Talent to be found around these picks for sure.

Just quietly, this is the best thread on the internets right now. People wanting to delete his existence ala eternal sunshine of a spotless mind and bitter and vengeful like an ex that scorned them. So good!!

Or in about 10 years time.

I agree. For a player worth 2 first round picks should be a consistent match winner. He is a fine prospect but i suspect we will spend the next 8 years of his career reading about what his best position is. I hope he thrives at Freo, but he isnt a generational ruckman. That guy is the current captain.

Martin Pike won 3 premierships with the Lions