Watson11

http://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/ Definitely Omac was getting the key defender until after our Geelong game when Frost went in front of him and got Buddy, Hawkins, Kennedy, Walker etc and yes a large part of it is our forward and mid pressure improved which IMO is the key to us being genuine flag contenders. But in that period Omac was getting the second forward so would have also had improved stats. Omac and Frost will both be in the 22 next year until Lever comes back in and it probably comes down to who is in better form at the time. Good position to be in compared to the issues we had when Lever went down this year.

Except at the end of the year when Frost was getting the best forward (Hawkins, Franklin, Kennedy, Roughead...).

Frost before Omac for me. Frost was in the top 5 one on one defenders in the AFL in 2018, losing only 17.6% of contests. Omac was just above average losing 26.7% of contests. FYI, Lever was ranked 2nd in the league at 15.4% and May around 10th at 21.4%. Our one on one defending was good last year and will be better in 2019. Your welcome to quote the actual stats to jnrmac ? My crystal ball prediction is we'll have a bad loss at some stage in 2019 when our forwards and mids are not defensively switched on, and demonland will go into meltdown over how bad our one on one defending is.....

I can't see us looking at Menzel. AFL coaches know the major source of scoring by far is turnovers. Any forward who doesn't apply forward 50 pressure and create turnovers is a liability. Menzel has never showed anything defensively despite probably being roasted about it by Scott. Not even a depth player. Both Smiths would get a run in the forward line by Goody before Menzel.

That's a fair enough point but is that all you would have done? What I don't get though is why they didn't go hard for some hard nut insiders, because it is a major weakness. Why didn't they try and get Tyson or others that were available. In 2018 they almost concede they won't get their hands on the ball first around stoppages and just rely on pressuring the ball carrier so they can get intercepts in the defensive 50. How that strategy backfired in the prelim. It is a major flaw they have.

People can rate trades now, but it is just opinions and gives us something to talk about. No-one can argue they are right or wrong until later. For example, my opinion is Plough is not just wrong on our trading but also Richmonds. He had Richmond as an A. I don't see it. Richmonds biggest problem in 2018 was they suck at contested ball and clearances and covered that well for most of the season due to being the best pressure team. Collingwood exposed them in clearances in the prelim. Richmond have done nothing to address that. They had to create salary cap space to get Lynch and shed 5 of their better depth players. Maybe some player discontent as well. Time will tell but I think we did better in the trade period than Richmond because we addressed some shortcomings. Richmond strengthened an area that they were already good (2nd highest scoring team). I hope we play both Max and Preuss on ANZAC eve to totally destroy Nankervis, starve the Richmond forwards, and expose what a useless critic Plough is....

That’s 64 points more than we actually lost by and the negative way to look at it. With the reverse logic an optimist might say we could’ve almost won it! Both statements are stupid. Fact is we lost by 66 points in the prelim and still have to improve.

I’m happy to argue it Hemingway. Not every investment pays off long term but if you don’t make them you end up broke. In Hogan’s case we got a good return while invested, but now sold that and invested it elsewhere. Jesse was drafted into the club when we were basket cases. Since he arrived we have gone from the basement to top 4. He made an impact as soon as he got on the ground and every year he was here the club improved and he was a part of it. Circumstances (Tmac becoming an elite forward, Weid stepping up at the end of the season), meant the FD were open to a trade. For every go home factor, or top draft getting a once in a lifetime offer, there are the Olivers and Brayshaws that if we didn’t invest in them we’d be back in the cellar soon enough.

Just a turn of phrase La Dee. Who kicks them with Hogan gone is what this thread is about. Point I was making is in big games goals are worth gold, and JH did not impact (9 goals in 8 games). I can see Max being a big weapon for us pushing forward more if Preuss plays. Max kicked 13.12 in 2018. Weid also can take pack marks in a way JH can't. 2 or 3 extra goals from contested marks in big games could be the difference between finishing 5th and 1st. If we keep improving hitting lead ups going inside 50 as well we'll be more dangerous next year than we were this year by far.

Preuss and Max to rotate forward. They both actually chase and tackle...

Gawns positioning helped but imo wasn’t the most important change. He couldn’t get back when we lost centre clearances. And when we were better at forward 50 pressure and slowing transition out of our forward 50 it allowed Gawn time to get back and bolster up our defence. Earlier in the season usain bolt wouldn’t have had time to get back. It’s evident the club wanted to further boost our defence, but also just as evident that players in our forward 50 who don’t work hard defensively are dropped or shown the door.

Even in his good games he’ll kick 3 or 4 but his direct opponent will initiate 6 scoring chains... can’t wait for Lever to play on him....

The stats you quote are for the entire season and we improved out of sight. Post St Kilda to the prelim we improved every single defensive stat and were the AFLs number 1 defensive team. Lowest points against, lowest points scored from turnovers (that came crashing down in the prelim), 4th lowest scores per oppo inside 50, 2nd best at forcing turnovers from oppo inside 50s (not sure of one on one stats but improved out of sight) etc etc. It was a stunning turnaround, and mainly because of forward 50 and midfield pressure, although Frost was good. Last 2 years when we keep oppo to less than 75 points we are 18 - 0. Average against in the post St Kilda to semi final period was 69 points. With Lever back and May in we will be beasts.... Best balanced team I can remember.

I’m one that doesn’t totally agree with you on defence but can understand your view. To me our defence starts in the forward 50 and mids. When we learnt to defend at the end of the season our defence was pretty good. Lever going down was a blessing in disguise because it was obvious that if our forwards and mids didn’t get the balance right then we’d struggle to make finals. But they worked it out just in time. But that said, I’m much happier to have Lever back and May to take the best forward. I think it clicked for the group at the end of the season. And 6-6-6 favours Melbourne more than any team (Number 1 centre clearance team). Think we’ll be impossible to beat next year if we get our defending in the forward 50 and mids right.

Agree. He takes contested pack marks which in big games and finals are gold. Few more kg and bigger tank and he’ll be a jet.

You may be right about how good he turns out and only time will tell. But my point was he is driven enough to be elite for a 2km time trial which at 100kg means he works damn hard, all while having significant off field issues. I don’t think we maximised his talent the way we kick inside 50. I don’t think Freo will either, but he’s good enough to be a consistent 40+ goal player for them. If their young mids thrive who knows. If he was at WC with Gaff, Hurn, Shuey, etc kicking to him he could have been a superstar. Glad that is not happening. The other thing about the trade for May, is next year May could have gone anywhere as an FA, and Mahoney etc knew we were the only team in play this year. If we waited, it’s possible May would have come on bigger $. So JM got the deal done and probably saved salary cap. I’m hoping his deal was front loaded, so that in years 3 onwards we have room to retain our current 20-23 year olds. I think it’s likely the FD have done it very well.

A bit unfair. After a tough 2017 he presented in 2018 at 100kg and ran a low 6min 2km time trial. You don’t do that by gorging on Pavlova over Christmas. As much as I was bullish on Hogan, I think we will be a better team overall in 2019 and don’t risk losing Weid now. I’m also happy he’s at Freo because at WC he has the attributes to be a lot better than Darling, but at Freo I suspect he’ll get more frustrated than he did at Melbourne...

I’m amazed Jesse still wanted to go there after the way Bell and Freo handled it last week (rumours about diligence and mental health, leaks about 8 year contracts etc). Freo must be really good liars. But let’s work on Brayshaw. Did anyone get a screenshot of him wearing a Melbourne scarf in the rooms after the semi-final. We need to get that shot out there.

We’ve lost 47 goals but I’m really only worried about adding to the 9 Jesse kicked in 8 games against the good teams last year. We’ll get more than that from Weid plus Max spending some time forward.

How does the RFA work? Couldn't Scully and GWS agree to tear up his contract so he can go as an RFA anywhere, and GWS get probably a high first round pick in the draft. Maybe GWS wanted to do that....

To add there is no ill feeling from Melbourne to Jesse either. However, I can’t say the same about MFC, Hogan, Hogan’s manager, Steven May, Gold Coast, Lobbe, GWS, Kelly, and Kelly’s manager toward Peter Bell and Fremantle.

2016 - circus with Dustin Martin 2017 - circus with Andrew Gaff 2018 - circus with Jesse Hogan I like where this is going.....

I don’t think you should read that much into it. It’s like anyone being headhunted for a job where they are offered a lot more than they currently get. Anyone would look at it seriously just like Jesse has done. I personally think Jesse would have been a bit torn by the decision. Shot at premierships with us or big $ and go home factor. Hopefully he’ll have a big point to prove to everyone next year.

Well yes. Too much unfortunately courtesy of a GC supporting friend, and this year had a special interest in May. He was not an elite ball user this year from what I saw and turns it over a lot. Champion data has him at almost 4 changers and turnovers a game, almost 25% of the time he gets it. Not worth a high draft pick. There is not a defender even at Carlton at that level.

I'm OK with that! There seems to be a lot of obsession to get Steven May but he is not pick 7 material, and miles away from Jesse. With May you know exactly what you'll get, a lock down defender with plenty of positives, but one huge negative, he turns it over more than almost every defender in the league. In todays game where turnovers are the major source of scoring (anyone remember the prelim first half), I just don't see why we would consider giving up a high first round pick this year for May. He turns it over more than Sam Frost who at least balances his clangers with line breaking score assists. May had almost 4 clangers a game last year - only two MFC players had more being Oliver and Brayshaw who average 2x possessions and are inside mids where it is hot. Regardless of what happens with JH, if we on trade a high first round pick, imo time will show it as one of the worst trades we have ever done.