Everything posted by titan_uranus
- GAMEDAY - Round 19
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GAMEDAY - Round 19
I quoted bobby1554's post, what's that got to do with you? lol I'm not against moving Hogan around the ground if he's struggling to make an impact in the forward line. But we already do this, by throwing him into the middle (often at times when we rest Oliver or Petracca forward). I don't see the need to put him at CHB where he's never played, when we've already got tall defenders down there who don't have the ability to play anywhere else. I also would prefer we improve the way we deliver the ball into our forward line so that either Hogan's not always being double/triple teamed, or that we're scoring regardless (i.e. if he's taking an extra defender and that lets TMac off the chain, that may well benefit the team). In other words, I don't agree with bobby1554's plan to permanently play our best midfielder as a forward and our best forward as a defender without replacements for either and without a play for what that does to the backline.
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The 2019 fixture
The points you raised were: starting the season with 9 out of 11 games in Victoria; only having 5 interstate games; getting 14 games at the MCG. Why should winning the premiership affect any of those? In fact, shouldn't winning the flag mean a better fixture given what should, rightly, be the reward for strong performance? The MCG is their home ground, so they get 10 games there at a minimum (given the AFL shafts the MCG tenants with Etihad home games). The other 4 are because other sides want home games against them. Indeed, I'm sure you'd agree that we would want to play Richmond in a home game next year. Richmond has 10 (one at Etihad), Collingwood 9 (two at Etihad), we have 9 (two games sold to NT, none at Etihad) Hawthorn has 6 (one at Etihad, four games sold to Tasmania). Then Etihad tenants - Carlton has 5 and Essendon has 4 (with both playing the rest at Eithad). It appears that if we reduced our NT arrangement down to one per year, that 10th Victorian home game would be played at Etihad. If we brought both back, though, it's not clear whether we'd get the 11th game at the G (Richmond does, but Collingwood doesn't, so I'm not sure how it would work). One of the big problems is that Essendon and, in particular, Carlton (given Carlton get home games against Port and WC at the G, whereas Essendon's are against the bigger Melbourne clubs and exceed Etihad's capacity) get permission to play games at the G when they made the decision to go to Etihad. They're both Etihad clubs. By granting them home games at the G, it forces the actual MCG clubs (us, Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn) to play home games where we don't want them at Etihad to meet the AFL's contractual minimum. Both are required to play home games at Etihad, indeed Collingwood has two. As to their away games at the G, everyone wants to play home games against them, including us. I'm sure you, like MSFebey, want to see home games against big Victorian clubs on our 2019 fixture. We won both NT games and both of the games the following week. Are you sure there's an impact? We only have to play three games at Etihad this year. That's the lowest we've ever had, I think. But I agree re: Kardinia Park (equality demands that everyone should have to play there), 3.20pm games (but that won't stop any time soon given Channel 7 demand having the game lead into the news) and Thursday nights (does anyone actually like them?).
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Run home to Finals - 2018
I don't think Sydney is a tall forward line. Their forward line right now is nothing to be scared of, either. They hardly generate a competitive number of scoring shots. Adelaide and WC though, agreed.
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GAMEDAY - Round 19
So your plan is to take our leading goalkicker and put him at CHB where we already have OMac and Frost, then replace him with our best midfielder against a side with a midfield which includes Sloane, Crouch and Gibbs, whilst Viney sits on the sidelines. And you implore us to "tackle to hurt", as if that was our problem last week. Thank heavens you're not the coach.
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ROUND 19 - Non MFC games
Our result is obviously most important, but wins to the Dogs, St Kilda and Fremantle (vs Hawthorn) are all huge for us. If we win and Collingwood lose to Richmond, then we'll be a game off third. We'll go past Sydney (and will have a 15-20% buffer on them, too) and we'll remain a game and percentage clear of Essendon (and North, if they win). We could also move up further if GWS or Port lose. In the ridiculous fantasy dream world, we win and each of GWS, Port, Hawthorn, Geelong and North lose. Then we're in the top 4 and we're a game and percentage clear of 9th with 4 games left. Probably somewhere around 0.0000000001% If we lose, we'll be level on points with Essendon and Adelaide (and North, if they win). We'll drop below Geelong and Hawthorn assuming they win, and be out of the 8 if both win. The impact of just one game is insanely high.
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ROUND 19 - Non MFC games
The way Sydney is playing, we are every chance to beat them in a fortnight. Tomorrow night is huge for us, now. A clear opportunity to win the next three is open to us if we apply ourselves.
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ROUND 19 - Non MFC games
A reminder that we're not the only club who gets bad umpiring decisions. That non-call of holding the ball on Zak Jones was absolute garbage. I'd be livid if I were an Essendon supporter. Also a reminder that the free kick count at the end of the day doesn't always show unfairness or bias as it doesn't show the missed calls.
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Ladder predictor
I think if we win our prospects are better than 40%. We'd likely then only need to beat GC and then one of the last three. I'd like to think we can go 1-2 through the final three games. The frustration for mine will be when we miss, it will be by a small margin yet again, and another year in which we have clearly obvious games we should (not could) have won (Geelong x 2 being the two main ones). It's amazing that we've only had to play the 7 members of the other top 8 4 times in the first 17 games. Of course, Collingwood have only had one more game than us and their only win was against us. Yet they're premiership contenders and we're pretenders. Actually, we can make the finals without improving that record. Beat Adelaide this week (currently out of the 8), beat GC, and by the time we play Sydney they could be out of the 8 (lose tonight and to Collingwood next week). Beat them too and we get to 13 without any of those wins being against the current top 8.
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ROUND 19 - Non MFC games
This game is win-win but also lose-lose. Win-win: an Essendon loss rules them out of finals (the chance of them winning all three of Hawthorn, Richmond and Port (away) is too low IMO), a Sydney loss keeps them sliding and another option for a team to fall below us in the run home (and, if we want to dream a bit, keeps the top 4 door a bit ajar). Lose-lose: an Essendon win draws them level with us on wins if we lose (we were at one stage 3 games in front of them on the ladder), a Sydney win rights their ship and makes the chance of them dropping out a bit less likely.
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MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19
So from the Alice Springs game: Melbourne In: J Smith, JKH, Tyson, Garlett, Frost Out: Hibberd, Hannan, Lever, Viney, T Smith Adelaide In: Walker, Sloane, Keath, Cheney, Seedsman, Murphy, McGovern, Knight Out: Hartigan, Gibson, Ellis-Yolmen, Douglas, Fogarty, Poholke, Mackay, Doedee We have three AA players missing and their replacements aren't exactly setting the world on fire at the moment. They lose Douglas and Doedee but get back Walker, Sloane, McGovern, Seedsman and Knight. Shows how many fringe players they had in their side in that game. No doubt this is a much stronger Adelaide side than the one we faced last time.
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Clarry Leaves Track Early with Quad Issue (25/7)
He'll play forward I think. And I'm not sure what the plan is. Joel Smith, I suppose? Maybe J Smith to Jenkins and Oscar to McGovern. Yes he is. One of the game's most over-rated players. Joe the goose goals are his specialty. Not sure how this thread turned into yet another OMac debate, though.
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ROUND 19 - Non MFC games
If Collingwood beat Richmond then full credit to them. But their record against the top 8 is only marginally better than ours. 1-4 (1-5 when you add in Geelong), and the only win is against us and we're 0-4 (0-6 including Geelong). The last time they played a top 8 side they got beaten by West Coast, a man down in rotations for over a half, by 6 goals at home. I'm just not yet convinced Collingwood is as good as their record or ladder position suggest.
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Congrats Jordan Lewis on 300 games
For anyone who queries the impact of Lewis on the group, have a listen to this week's Inside Melbourne podcast and listen to what Brayshaw says about him.
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The 2019 fixture
We had 9 of our first 11 games in Victoria. We would have 17 out of 22 games in Victoria if we didn't sell two home games to the NT. Our MCG count is lower (11), but we might get one back if we didn't sell two home games to the NT, plus Richmond get 4 away games at the G because clubs want to play them there. One of the many reasons it's important for us to finish strong and make the finals is to keep a positive aura around us and get more clubs wanting to play us in their home games at the G.
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Brayshaw Re-Signs Until 2022
I see you asked this because you think by trading Hogan we could get a defender, and you think we need a defender because we're too easy to score against. Not only do I disagree completely with the suggestion we should trade Hogan (the first half of this season he was in AA form and if your expectations are that a 23 KPF should be at AA level every single week then your expectations are out of whack), I disagree with the notion that we need to get a defender. Our defensive problems are not down to OMac or a key defender, they are down to our team's defence.
- MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19
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Brayshaw Re-Signs Until 2022
As positive a news story we could get in a week like this, I think. OMac is the only player of note out of contract at the end of this year and only Hogan and Salem, I believe, at the end of next year. The rest of our best players are all signed up to the end of 2020 or beyond, which is excellent list management IMO.
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Umpire Report
I still think Ablett quite clearly pushed Brayshaw in the back when Brayshaw went in to get it in that last 30 seconds. We've seen tackles like that get called for pushes in the back repeatedly in the last few weeks. Ablett didn't even try to roll him over like Salem did when he got pinged last week against the Dogs. Nothing is as bad as the protected zone 50m penalty against Harmes, though.
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Harmes Broken Bone in Hand
Lever starts developing back into AA form. Gets injured for the rest of the season. Stretch finally plays a solid AFL game and shows some of the qualities we could really use in the side. Gets injured for the rest of the season. Viney and Hibberd work back into some form (albeit not spectacular from either of them). Both get injured. Harmes finds a niche as a tagger and in successive weeks takes out A-grade midfielders in Macrae, Selwood and Dangerfield. Gets injured. We had a solid run with injuries in the first half of the year but that luck appears to have firmly run out now. Makes the Port and St Kilda losses harder to stomach, given at that time we had just Lever out from our first choice 22 (Hunt having been dropped before getting injured).
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Run home to Finals - 2018
Geelong lost to the Dogs, Hawthorn lost to Brisbane, Sydney lost to GC, Port lost to Fremantle, we lost to St Kilda. Surprise losses happen, and may well continue to happen. Which makes predicting things really difficult. If we go 3-2 over the final 5 games, our percentage should stay high enough to ensure we finish at least 8th. The WC and GWS games look to be the two hardest on the slate, so we're really now needing to win the next three. If we can knock off Adelaide this week, I'll really like our chances to get to 13. Miss out, and we're going to need to ensure we beat Sydney and then find a win against at least one of two top 4 sides in WC and GWS.
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Changes vs Adelaide
Yes but what is it that makes our defence shiite? How does dropping OMac replace: the turnovers up the ground; the oodles of space we give opposition forward lines (not just Geelong, all of them); the high press which leads to the "out the back" goals; the lazy defensive running from the forwards and mids; the failure to account for players like Duncan who get free in the final 20 seconds; getting slammed in clearances at critical times which leads to easy clearances against us. OMac needs to get better, but by blaming him, or any of the key defenders, is just too simplistic and ignores the bigger problems up the ground which are the real reason our defence is shiite (and I'm not disagreeing with you here, the way the 18 players on the ground defend is shiite too often). Agree with you. The posters calling for him to be included are the ones who like "grunt" and who love seeing his tackle numbers. Three VFL games in 2.5 years is not enough for a fringe player to get back to AFL level, whether he's laying tackles or not.
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Changes vs Adelaide
Agree, I think this needs to be talked about more. Not being at the game last night, it's hard to know what we were doing at centre bounces in terms of forward set up. But for most of the year we've started with the entire forward line starting 30 metres out from goal and most of them then moving forwards, towards the centre. So when the quick kick comes in from the clearance, it sits on top of the heads of McDonald or Hogan or Melksham or ANB. There's no one starting deep and leading up at the ball carrier. The same problem seems to apply when we're bringing the ball up from the backline. We seem to always have players at the half-forward line either stationary or hoping to run back towards goal to use the space. We don't have players starting deep and then leading up at us.
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Changes vs Adelaide
We're not dropping OMac or Hogan. Appreciate the frustration, and both need to be significantly better, but we're not dropping them, we all know it.
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Changes vs Adelaide
JKH and Joel Smith shouldn't be playing. Fingers crossed Hibberd is fit. Otherwise, the rest of the improvement needs to come from the players who played tonight.