titan_uranus

Harmes certainly improved late, but is generally part of the problem. Spends too long failing to impact games when we're losing. Agree with Tyson, he has to go.

GWS just jumped 4 spots on the ladder (passing us, Geelong, North and Hawthorn). Essendon and Adelaide in 11th and 12th are only one win out of the 8 (and only one win behind us). This is an incredibly even season and our losses to Geelong, Port and St Kilda will cost us our finals spot.

Until today it was hard to know for sure whether our struggles at the G were because of the G itself or the teams we were playing there (Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood). Given the exact same problems showed up against a bottom 4 side, the evidence now swings massively in favour of it being the G. It looks to me like it's a width problem. We press a long way up but on a wider ground that just exposes us on the flanks, and we're so slow in those areas that we can't defend the entire ground. I don't know if we can fix this in time to save the season.

6 - Gawn 5 - Fritsch 4 - Salem 3 - Hibberd 2 - Brayshaw (based on everything except those 5 or so horrendous clangers) 1 - Viney

I just read that too - incredible. It was 39% the last time we played them. It may well be as simple as the G's dimensions. We just seem to get beaten the same way every time.

Posting on this topic hours after a demoralising loss is never a good idea but whatever: In: Frost, Garlett, Spargo, Stretch Out: Tyson, ANB, Hannan, Petty Petty never should have played, so I don't buy the argument that he should get a second crack. Just accept we got it wrong and get him out. I don't like Frost and I doubt I ever will but that change just has to be made. Tyson is adding nothing to the side, complete waste of a spot. Give Stretch a go on that wing. Another player I don't like but deserves a chance. I'd then drop ANB and Hannan for Garlett and Spargo. Get some smaller, pacier forwards in. Let Hogan, TMac, Weideman and Fritsch contest in the air, and have Garlett and Spargo at their feet. But both Garlett and Spargo have to work their butts off defensively. Run, chase, tackle, pressure. We're not getting enough of any of that from ANB and Hannan and ANB in particular deserves to be dropped and to have the heat put on him.

Nor me, but with every loss in which we are beaten the precise same way, I lose more and more hope that we're ever going to "sort out some structures and ball movement".

What an absolute disgrace. Mistakes made at selection - Petty clearly not ready for AFL, no crumber, too many talls/marking forwards. We carry too many players who routinely underperform when we're losing: ANB, Harmes and Hannan are the biggest culprits. Our gameplan has been worked out. Opponents drop a number (or two) behind the ball. Our forward line becomes clogged. We win plenty of it in the middle but we continually turn it over at half-forward because we're outnumbered and there's no plan. We then can't spread fast enough on wide grounds like the G and we get exposed out the back. It's all too common and all too predictable, but Goodwin's stubbornness hasn't worked out how to fix it. We can't keep having massive inside 50 counts but failing to score and then conceding goals and scores from every second opponent entry. It's not a sustainable way of playing. I don't think we're going to win enough games to make the finals, but if we do, then we will have beaten Geelong in Geelong, Adelaide in Adelaide, West Coast in Perth or Sydney. To do that, we're going to have to have improved, quite a bit on where we are now.

We’re cooked. We can’t score with sides dropping numbers back, we’re too slow in transition, our zone doesn’t hold up on the G, we’re carrying way too many passengers (Lewis, Tyson, Petty, Petracca). We’ve been found out and against any side with a semblance of pace we can’t compete on the G.

The first 50 was there but the free kick in the first place wasn’t. The second 50 was a disgrace. But it’s the same old problems. 18 inside 50s for 4.2. They drop numbers back and just wait for us to turn it over. Hogan, Weed and TMac can’t get any separation on their man. And laziness through the middle, especially when Gawn went off.

The Dogs’ win is great for us, but ultimately it all comes down to our own performances. If we don’t win all of the next three we are in big trouble.

Good on him, hope he tears Carlton apart.

The first of three must-win games. As far as I'm concerned, they're close enough to elimination finals for us. If we're not 11-5 after Round 17, with the final 6 games we have, I don't think we're playing finals. We've approached games against the bottom sides well this year. Let's hope we're focused not just on winning, but on fixing the mistakes that crop up against the good sides. Nice to see Petty debut. Interestingly, it's not at the expense of Joel Smith, so we're adding a tall to the backline. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if Vince is dropped to make room for Petty, with Petty to play Lever's role and J Smith to play a smaller running role, i.e. taking Vince's role. Weideman for T Smith IMO, with Pedersen only named as cover for TMac. We ought to get Spargo into the side too, and if so it will be one of Harmes or Tyson dropped (if it were up to me, I'd drop Harmes). Extend what streak? We've won the last three.

I was at the game tonight. The most noticeable thing IMO was Richmond's structures. They almost permanently left someone (often Martin or Riewoldt) deep forward. As in, within the forward 50 when the ball was at the other end of the ground. At midfield stoppages they would have 5-6 players set up well forward of the ball. It forced Sydney to keep their defenders in their backline and not up at the contest and that gave Richmond space to break away from stoppages. It was intriguing, and IMO proof that we don't necessarily need to change the rules or bring in zones to get around congestion.

Every time anyone (myself included) does a ladder predictor exercise, the thing that is commonly missing is the occasional upset win where a rubbish side knocks over a top 8 side. Just last week Essendon beat West Coast in a game possibly no one thought Essendon could win. Brisbane's 56-point win over Hawthorn remains one of the biggest WTF moments of the season. Those sorts of results are going to occur again in the run home. We might be victim to one, given everyone is simply assuming we get to 12 wins on the back of St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and GC. But, of course, it only takes one or two of those sorts of upsets to the sides around us to make it that much easier for us to get in if we can get to 13. If we miss finals, it is almost certainly going to come down to our inability to take our contested possession and clearance focused game plan and make it work against high pressure sides with a number back. Not some key forward getting a hold of us.

Until we beat another side in the top 8, this question will continue to be asked. Agreed. We've had two shockers - Hawthorn and Collingwood. The Richmond game fell apart but we showed significant positive signs. We should have beaten both Geelong and Port and, had we done that, we would be equal top of the ladder without this question being asked. But we didn't win those games, and so we deal with this question and the uncertainty until we beat someone better.

Everyone is frothing over Collingwood. They've beaten Carlton (twice), St Kilda, Brisbane, Fremantle, the Dogs, Essendon, Adelaide and us. We've beaten Carlton, St Kilda, Brisbane, GC, the Dogs, Essendon, Adelaide and North. But the narrative at the moment is "Melbourne can't beat anyone good" whilst "Collingwood is more dangerous than Richmond". If we're no good then they have no wins against anyone good. At least we've beaten North!

Agreed. Very well said. At least there is a circumstance when Lewis is good. What is Vince’s? IMO, Lewis adds far more than Vince. Both have flaws which aren’t going away. But at the very least, Lewis is adding some value that we’re not getting from Vince. I genuinely don’t know what Vince is adding to the side right now. Agreed. The worst thing we can do is stubbornly back the current set up in against St Kilda and, if it goes well (and the 6 straight wins suggests it might), say “that’s how we want to play”. We’ve seen enough now to know that things need to change to beat sides in the top 8.

I’d like to see us make changes which address our flaws. We need more tackling/crumbing presence in the foward line so Garlett or Spargo should be looked at. We don’t need both Harmes and ANB, neither of whom perform in big games. Frost has no football IQ. His athleticism gets him picked and his basic, terrible mistakes get him dropped, every time. I guarantee if he is picked the gameday thread will be full of complaints about him turning it over.

Winning all 3 is essentially necessary to make finals. It won’t change the perception that we’re a pretender, we just need the wins. But if we can win all three, we still have three chances to beat a better side (Geelong, WC, Sydney).

That’s the point though. The only way to lose with 29 more inside 50s is when those inside 50s are ineffective. We clearly did something right through the middle. +19 CPs, +16 clearances. But when those CPs and clearances are just resulting in poor quality kicks inside 50s, or when we let opponents send extras behind the ball and clog up our space, we don’t turn that effort into anything productive. It’s the perfect summation of what is wrong with us.

Nope. 15-14. This game wasn’t lost because of our defensive height. Edit: they also took 4 in the last minute. So until that last possession it was 11-14 in our favour. So, put simply, you’re miles off.

Compare this to Richmond’s performance against Port two weeks ago. Port is 5-1 against the top 8. They are a good side. This doesn’t ease my anger much because we shouldn’t be losing games with 29 more inside 50s. But yes, we played a high intensity game against a top 8 side in a hostile environment and led for 95% of the game.

+29 inside 50s but a loss. Same as the Geelong game. This shouldn’t still be happening, not 13 weeks after Round 1 and 8 weeks after Anzac Eve. We will be 6th after Collingwood beats Carlton and only percentage within the 8. We are the side at risk of being replaced by Hawthorn.

Win and we're a game off the top. Lose and we're percentage only from being out of the 8. Either way, tomorrow night on here is going to be interesting.