titan_uranus

Vince kicks that late goal he missed yesterday, and Fasolo misses his goal after the siren on QBD, and we finish 8th. (there are so many ways to do this, it is going to cause me so much pain for the next 7 months).

This is the lowest I've felt as a Melbourne supporter, ever. The time for assessing the individual players and the list overall will come. But we can bring in some players, delist some players, trade some players, whatever, that's not going to solve the bigger issues at the club which, after three years of Roos and a year of Goodwin, remain. Of the 10 games we lost this year, 5 were to teams in the bottom 7. Compare that with our direct rivals: West Coast lost 3, Essendon lost 3, Port lost 0, the Dogs only lost 2, St Kilda lost 0. We continually lose games in the same fashion - we turn off for periods. Doing it every now and again is excusable, but there are no excuses for it continuing to happen at the worst times against poor quality opposition. The common thread in all 5 of our losses to the bottom 7 was a lack of intensity. We led Fremantle by 5 goals and then switched off. We didn't show up until Hawthorn and Collingwood were 40 points up. And we never properly showed up against North either time. We showed the same problem in letting Brisbane, Port and St Kilda all back into our three most recent wins. We showed when we were "on", we were good enough to beat Adelaide in Adelaide, West Coast in Perth, the Dogs at Etihad by 10 goals, Essendon at Etihad. But I reckon we only played two or three 4-quarter games all year (Adelaide, West Coast, the Dogs. Maybe St Kilda in Round 1). If we can't learn to beat the bad clubs, then we're never going to make it.

Adelaide fell well behind Sydney early last week but turned it around. They're a strong second quarter team. If they're still 3 goals behind at HT I'll be worried. Adelaide can't move from 1st even if they lose.

What about the Dogs, who were still in the running for finals when they played, and were farewelling Murphy and Boyd? Or St Kilda, who are still in the running for finals and are farewelling Riewoldt, but are currently 44 points down at HT? Or GWS, who could have finished on top with a win but rolled over and played bog-awful football and now have to travel in their QF instead of playing it at home?

I'd prefer that to not making it at all. And tell that to Carlton in 2013, who only made it because of Essendon being banned and then proceeded to beat 5th-placed Richmond.

Well we won't know unless and until we play them. And if we finish 8th, then we deserve to have that opportunity.

This is ridiculous, MFCSS rubbish. If we get in it will be because we won enough games during the season, with enough percentage to finish in the top 8. We could have won the first 12 games, or lost the first 10 and won the last 12 games, or some other combination. At the end of the season, it doesn't f*cking matter. If we finish 8th, then we deserve it by definition. You can be disappointed we didn't take the chance given to us to control our destiny. You can be disappointed we all miss out on the euphoria of winning our final game and knowing we make finals because of it. You can be disappointed we didn't beat a non-finalist when we should have. All of that is legitimate. But this stupid argument that we don't deserve it if we make it is just that, stupid.

Our competition was with the Richmond-St Kilda game and they gave preference to Richmond over us (and St Kilda over Collingwood, too, given St Kilda was in contention for finals but Collingwood was not). Makes sense, even if it was frustrating. How can they swap our game with Essendon's? Richmond-St Kilda is at the G, that's the problem - we couldn't have played at 1.10pm today with that game on.

Yes, we did. Neither team is that good. Your argument is simply that Essendon won the final game and therefore "deserves" to play finals whilst we lost the final game and therefore don't "deserve" to play finals. As if the criteria for playing finals is to win the final game. A team deserves to play finals if it finishes the year 8th or higher. If that happens to us by 7.10pm, then we deserve it.

I'd rather get embarrassed in the Elimination Final than not make it in the first place.

The same club that lost to Brisbane and has today barely squeezed past a side who lost its past two games by 104? There were 4 points on offer in Round 23. Same as in the previous 22 Rounds. Essendon doesn't "deserve" it any more than we do (if we make it) simply because they won in Round 23 and we lost. If we make it, then we deserve it. If we don't make it, then we don't.

It obviously won't feel like it would have if we'd done it by winning, but I'll still enjoy it. It will reflect the fact that after 22 games we ended the year as one of the 8 best teams.

Watch GWS' "effort" last night. GC had 5 scoring shots for entire match. Carlton lost by 81 points and conceded something like 10 goals in about half an hour. Yes, we're all angry and frustrated and down after yesterday but let's not make things up.

Legitimate question though: when he's been "brilliant", where has he been playing? Forward or back? IMO, most of his good games this year were in the forward line.

Can we also cut out this "we're not ready for finals" talk? If we finish in the top 8 then we earned the right to play that first final, and who knows how we will do. At least wait and see how we perform, if we make it. The weight of pressure will be wholly off our shoulders if we're in Adelaide or Sydney with everyone expecting a loss. Who knows what we'll produce.

On the topic of not laying a tackle in the first 10 minutes, and not laying enough tackles early - it looks like we had more of the ball in the first quarter. Was it a case, then, of over-possessing, turning it over at half-forward, and then Collingwood getting clean and easy possessions on the turnover? If so, that explains it (and makes it easier to understand, compared to if it was contested and we just weren't prepared to get our hands dirty).

True, they were the final game of the Sunday and therefore knew that they had nothing to play for (with West Coast and GWS having already won). Still, in some respects makes the point - they deserved to play finals because of what they had done over the prior 22 rounds, which was enough to qualify them for finals. If we make the finals it will be because of what we did over the prior 22 rounds, which will have been enough to qualify us for finals. Same deal. If Richmond and GWS both win, then an Adelaide win puts them 1st, to play Geelong, but a loss puts them 2nd to play Richmond.

I suppose in some respects their loss to Sydney last week helps us. They may not want to have gone a month without winning before finals. Still, I can easily see West Coast jumping out to an early lead and Adelaide putting the cue in the rack midway through the match for fear of knocking themselves out trying to get back into a game they might not need to win (and, if GWS and Richmond win, might prefer to lose).

If we miss out on percentage, ignoring the losses I'll rue (Geelong, Richmond, Hawthorn, Fremantle, North), I'll also rue Fasolo's goal after the siren on QBD, not burying Brisbane last week when we hit 32 points up, and letting St Kilda and Port both back into our recent wins when we built early leads. If Essendon can't beat Fremantle, do they deserve to play finals? If West Coast can't beat a tanking Adelaide without Walker or Talia, at home, do they deserve to play finals? If we finish in the top 8 we earned it. And as has happened time and time again, we just don't know what will happen if we get the chance to play that first final.

I hate this "we don't deserve to play finals" crap. If we finish in the top 8 then we do, by f*cking definition. It's a 22-game season, not a one-game season. The Dogs lost to Fremantle in Round 23 last year.

However, if GWS win and then Richmond win, Richmond will finish 3rd. Surely Adelaide would think twice about winning and playing Geelong at home vs losing and playing Richmond at home? If I were Adelaide I'd want the easiest QF match up possible to get the best chance at a home PF. If Geelong wins, Adelaide will be locked into first and will have nothing to play for. However, it may be in that case that they also have nothing to "lose for" and may then use the game as a tune up for finals. Perverse logic, I know. I'm clutching at straws here. The more Adelaide scores, the more West Coast has to win by. Adelaide's average score this year is 111.

4.40-7.10 tomorrow is going to suck. We're better than Essendon and West Coast. Indeed, that will frustrate me more than anything. West Coast is tripe and will get more blown apart by Sydney or Port than we will, but they'll be the ones who get to say they made finals.

If you need to work out where we lost this game, consider this: we won three out of four quarters, but lost the match. We outscored Collingwood from quarter time, including after HT when Hogan was off injured. The fact that we lost the game in the first quarter, when we didn't have the injury and we should have come out breathing fire, is terrible. Far worse than losing to Richmond/Geelong in the last quarter when we were down players. We end the year with 10 losses, 5 of them (North x 2, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Collingwood) to sides who won't be playing finals. 50% of our losses this year to sides in the bottom 7. Port might stink against the good sides but they only lost one game to a bottom 10 side. The current points gap to West Coast is 17. That will vary as Adelaide scores, but essentially West Coast need to win by around three goals to take our spot.

Could there be anything more "Melbourne" than this? You've been as negative as anyone on this thread!

In case anyone is wondering, our percentage is currently 0.4% above West Coast's (on current numbers, about 8 points).