titan_uranus

Their rating of the runs home isn't too bad, it factors in opponents' percentage, games against the current top 8, and travel. I'm surprised ours is so easy given we still have three interstate trips plus a trip to Geelong. If we beat Port and do what we ought to do (and so far this year have done) against St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and Gold Coast, we should be OK. But that's only 13 wins. A 14th win would make it a sure thing, which means the above plus probably Adelaide (assuming they continue to be tripe) or GWS at the G. If we only end up on 13 wins, we're going to need to do better in our losses than we have so far. We can't afford to shed percentage every time we lose, and we're going to lose. I'm confident 13 will get us in provided our percentage holds up. Round 23 vs GWS at the G could well be a "win and in" for both sides. Let's hope we've secured our spot because I really don't want to have to go through that again (and from 8-3 we shouldn't have to).

North play two games a year at the G. I reckon that one counted as having home ground advantage. It's also no one's fault but ours that we sold the Adelaide home game to Alice Springs.

Our game against Port is huge. Win it and we'll be a game and percentage clear of Geelong and Port, as well as North and Hawthorn (assuming both win next week). Lose it, and percentage will be all that keeps us in the 8 (as I would predict Collingwood to beat Carlton, Hawthorn to beat GC and North to beat the Dogs, making all of those clubs 8-5, and Port will move to 9-4). A GWS win over Brisbane would have them only a draw behind us too. It is so, so tight from 4th to 10th. With Hawthorn's easier fixture and GWS potentially improving form, getting the points against Port will go a long way to giving us the confidence and breathing space that we're going to need to hold our finals spot.

Any half-decent side (i.e. not Gold Coast or Carlton) would have been 100 points up at 3/4 time. GC are rubbish. 0.2 from their last four fourth quarters is a bizarrely terrible statistic. Adelaide is playing like a bottom 4 side right now. No doubt injuries are taking their toll, but they are a total on-field disaster. At 6-7 with West Coast, Richmond and Geelong as their next three, their season looks shot.

Why drop Spargo for Bugg (Garlett can take Hannan’s spot)? Why drop Spargo at all? And why play Bugg at all?

I’d agree with the OP if the subject was Vince. Lewis is providing far more right now than Vince. Maybe that says more about Vince than Lewis.

I think we are all right to be concerned about his form. I'm disappointed in what he's producing at the moment and I wouldn't be against dropping him. I'll back him in to fix things up, though.

I'd give up on Pedersen immediately and replace him with Weideman. As for other changes, I'd be looking at dropping some (not all) of Petracca, Vince, Harmes and Hannan. I think we'll be seeing one or two of Hunt, Tyson and Garlett get a recall. Otherwise, we need to back the majority of the 22 in to re-assess over the break and respond in prime time against Port. If we fail again in that game, bigger changes will happen. You've been posting about us winning the flag for six weeks. Hypocrisy at its finest.

He's not currently best 22 but we won't be making/winning finals with a squad of 22 and no more. I expect to see him back in the seniors at least once before the end of the season. Whether that's pessimism around injuries or just a belief that players can improve in the VFL, I don't know.

@Demonland, @Nasher - help? This thread deserves an update!

Win this week and we’ll have won 5 in a row for the first time since 2006 (rounds 10-15).

Love this thread, Skuit. Out of interest, where are you getting these stats from?

Happy bump.

Quite an incredible thing to have happened. The team has had a "win at all costs" attitude for a while now and something bad (not necessarily this bad, though) was always going to happen. Possibly the most galling part about all this is Smith's reaction. He seemed to think that by fronting up to the media and apologising, that would make it all better. I suspect he genuinely thought at that press conference that it was something he could push behind him and people would forget about, hence his comment about not standing down (and the way he said it). Smith's career is over, I can't see how he can come back from this - will anyone look at him the same, captain or not, again? Warner breeds the "win at all costs" mentality and isn't any help to the side. Lyon, i think, is the same. CA needs to properly work out who was involved. Any player who was involved should be stood down and, possibly, sacked/never selected again. Lehmann should resign before he gets sacked (if he knew, then he knew. If he didn't know, he should have). For the fourth Test, Smith, Bancroft and Warner mustn't play, nor should Starc, Hazlewood or Lyon unless it can be determined they had no role to play. Fly over replacements, put up a competitive and legal fight, then once it is all over a proper assessment needs to take place. New captain, new coach, new leadership model.

Has to be a concern. If Dangerfield doesn't play though, it lessens the impact.

Nothing dangerous about using 66 on a player like Balic. If it's another Riley/Michie/Newton/Kennedy trade, then so be it. At least we haven't given up trying. But we've bought low given his personal issues so if he does turn out to display what it seems he was promising pre-draft, then this could end up being a good get for 66. I look forward to watching him over the summer and to see how/where he fits into the 22, if at all.

Neither OMac nor Frost showed enough this year for any of us to be 100% convinced. I'm much more positive about OMac than, say, STMJ, but I still accept that he isn't anything certain. Bringing Lever in will likely make his job much, much easier. It also allows us to do one, and maybe both, of two things: play TMac forward (his best football in 2017 was, in my view undoubtedly, as a forward); and release Hibberd, who spent too much time this year being forced to play as the third tall. Until a quality midfielder becomes available, this is a nothing argument. There isn't currently a midfielder available who promises what Lever promises. Besides which, I think if we bring Lever in and can release Hibberd further up the ground that will assist with part of our current midfield problem. That said, I don't believe Lever is worth two first round draft picks. I think Adelaide is posturing, and fair enough too, but if that becomes the true asking price I wouldn't pay it.

I feel like this thread has reached the point where people don't want Lever because STMJ wants him.

Watching him closely tonight. Playing really, really well so far. Exciting.

Legitimate question though: when he's been "brilliant", where has he been playing? Forward or back? IMO, most of his good games this year were in the forward line.

This is the most interesting post on this thread.

Regardless of what you think of Lever (he's one of the competition's genuine stars) and of OMac (he's far, far better than STMJ claims and he's much improved on last year), if Lever wants to play for us then, provided we don't jeopardise our ability to retain our core talent over the next 5 years, we do that deal.

I'm far more of a supporter of Lewis than Vogon or TGR but I find it funny how many people point to him getting ANB to pass him the ball in the final minute is proof that he's a star. It was absolutely a good piece of leadership from him but that on its own doesn't really do much to support the argument that he's adding much to the side. FWIW, I thought he played a lot better yesterday than in previous weeks. He had one abysmal turnover that reeked of a Vince-like lack of care, but he copped a lot of flak from not just the fans but the Carlton players, physically, and unlike last time he wore it properly and focused on getting the ball and playing a role as an inside midfielder which we sorely needed.

I can't argue against the general proposition that he's not adding a whole lot on the field. His form doesn't presently allow it. But I think you're being unnecessarily and unfairly harsh with some of the other comments like this one, or the one about his "financial advisor" and his super. I don't think, after the body of work he has built up over his career, he deserves that sort of commentary. Certainly given he was pushed out of Hawthorn more than he walked away for money, I don't think it's fair and it's not necessary given there's plenty to have a go at him for in terms of what he's doing on the field.

Whilst I think a lot of your criticism of him throughout the year has been unnecessarily harsh, I agree with the general premise that he's underperforming, and I also agree that this weekend is a big game for him in the circumstances. Win or lose, if he doesn't step up I'll be disappointed.