titan_uranus

It is literally a year ago today that we played a Sunday, 1.10pm MCG game against a bottom 4 side, with us having "everything to play for" and finals on the line. If we learnt anything from that game it's that showing up expecting the result to occur will result in a loss.

Surely we're too thin in KPD stocks to trade Frost (unless we get a replacement KPD in...)?

Yes, this is now true thanks to Carlton beating Hawthorn (previously had this occurred, Hawthorn would have taken our spot). It would be a matter of holding our percentage over West Coast (and the Dogs and St Kilda, but we're 10% in front of them so that's not as difficult). If we win today, the only thing stopping us from making the finals is a loss to Collingwood combined with West Coast thrashing Adelaide next week to catch us on percentage.

Who cares about Essendon? If we win tomorrow, we are very, very close to making it. That should be exciting all of us.

As far as I can tell, if we win both games: We finish 7th - to finish any higher requires Port or Richmond to lose both games. Given Port has GC next week and Richmond has Fremantle this week, that is extremely unlikely. If we finish 7th, our opponent almost entirely depends on the WB-Port game - if Port lose it, they'll likely finish 6th, but if they win, then they could pass Sydney on percentage and finish 5th, pushing Sydney to 6th (assuming both then win next week). If Richmond lose one of their two remaining games, then they can finish 6th and host us in the first final. If we only win one game: We can't finish higher than 8th and our chance of finishing 8th hinges almost entirely on Port-WB - a Port win makes it much more likely we finish 8th. If the Dogs win, though, then we need West Coast to lose both games (GWS/Adelaide) and we need Essendon to either lose one of their last two or, alternatively, we need to beat Essendon's percentage. If Essendon wins both games, though, that becomes unlikely (we'll have to have a massive win and then a tiny loss). If we finish 8th we're likely to get Port (as in all likelihood Port will have beaten the Dogs today). If we get through by beating Essendon on percentage, we can end up with Sydney (i.e. Port lose to the Dogs and slip to 7th).

Hibberd, Jetta and Oliver should all be in the squad. I don't think Garlett's been good enough. I can make a case for all three to be in the 22 but I suspect the best chance is Jetta, has been hyped up (somewhat, at least) in the media this year.

You're probably right about that, although if Richmond somehow slip to 5th and host an Elimination Final that will probably be the Friday night game. Last Elimination Final on a Friday night was in 2009 (when Adelaide belted Essendon by 96 points).

True, but importantly each of those games was at the Gabba. The last time they left Brisbane they lost to West Coast by 68. They're much better than they were 8 weeks ago but they've only won one game away from Brisbane. Indeed, their win over Essendon this year is only their third win out of Queensland since the start of 2015 (and one of those other wins was against Essendon last year). We cannot take them lightly but we also should beat them convincingly.

Just the once, I think. And STMJ said "Salem at anywhere near close to his best". He was dropped because he's nowhere near his best, much like Watts was in the lead up to being dropped.

True. Indeed, Adelaide has locked in a top 2 finish already. If they tank Round 23, and West Coast wins it, then we'll need to ensure we maintain our percentage gap over them (which is currently minute). A big win to GWS next week would do us wonders.

Win both, we're in. If we win only one, and finish 12-10, we will need the Dogs and West Coast to each lose at least one (and for us to maintain our percentage over both) and to maintain percentage over Essendon (who are capable of belting GC and Fremantle). Even if St Kilda win both (requiring an upset over Richmond, playing for top 4, at the G), their percentage is so far behind that they shouldn't be able to catch up. I can see the Dogs dropping one of their Port/Hawthorn games, and I can certainly see West Coast losing both their games (GWS and Adelaide). That would give us a good chance of staying 8th at 12-10 (with Essendon passing us on percentage but holding the Dogs off on percentage). If we win next week, the Dogs lose to Port and West Coast loses to GWS, we will very, very nearly be there without needing to beat Collingwood. We will actually be there if somehow GC beats Essendon, too (as the percentage gap over the Dogs and St Kilda should mean they can't pass us).

Absolutely no chance Bugg plays this week. Lost the trust of his teammates and has to earn that back at Casey (which might not be possible in the short space of time he has left). Wouldn't be surprised to see Frost come in for Weideman, with TMac swinging forward. If Salem doesn't get suspended, he could replace Wagner. Petracca's badly out of form but I doubt we'll drop him.

I can't believe the negativity on here. For the first 10 minutes our skills were off but so were theirs - big game, pressure, understandable. We clicked early and our pressure kept them out of it. We did what good sides do and put on early scoreboard pressure. They got a ridiculous ride from the umpires in the third which brought them back into it (the frees for Longer against Gawn were inexplicable). But we steadied, like good sides do, and pulled away late. Brayshaw was incredible for his first game back. Looked so settled. Lewis' best game this year IMO, contested ball was his strength. Oliver and Jones kept us level at the clearances and the back six (especially OMac and Hibberd) were terrific again. Garlett copped Geary and struggled to shake him and Petracca is woefully out of form, but that just shows we have room for improvement. Such a critical win for us. We're not there yet but we are so much closer.

6 - Jones 5 - Lewis 4 - Pedersen 3 - Oliver 2 - Harmes 1 - Hibberd

So skilled, well drilled, enthusiastic and quick that they are below us on the ladder? They beat West Coast. Whose only two wins in the last 5 weeks have been against Brisbane and Fremantle (both at home). And they trailed for most of the game. Whilst we will lose if we play like we did against GWS, let's not turn this into something it's not. St Kilda is a middle-of-the-road side and, like we showed in Round 1, we are better than them. The game is in our hands, not theirs. If we play anywhere near our best we will beat them.

I don't want to make excuses but I'd be surprised if the cramming in of the 6-day breaks and all of our travel in recent weeks is taking its toll. Our first 7 games were in Melbourne. Of the 12 since, we've played 6 of them interstate. We've also had four or five 6-day breaks in the same period. That includes three of our last four games (all losses), all being interstate, including Darwin (and another 6-day break). Again, not an excuse, but I'm sure not a coincidence that at the end of these 12 weeks we're tiring.

I haven't seen the game, but it feels like our frustration at losing to North is the real problem. We're 2-4 since we beat West Coast. The losses have been to Adelaide (1st), GWS (2nd), Sydney (flag contender). And North. Essendon and the Dogs today put in poor performances against poor sides but both found a way to get over the line knowing how important a win was. We couldn't do that last week and we're paying the price for it now. Win last week and we're 11-8 and still in the 8, even with today's bad loss. It feels to me like we are going to have to win out to make finals from here. Our percentage isn't great and at the end of this round it's likely 8th will have 11 wins. So I doubt 12 will get us in.

Pedersen for Hogan makes sense. Vince and Jones taking JKH's and Trengove's spots also makes sense. Hannan has been "rested" - probably not a bad idea, assuming it's true, and gives Maynard a taste. This game is winnable. GWS has hardly played a good game for two months. I was thinking the same thing. Since we last played GWS, they've played Sydney five times.

It's next Saturday, isn't it?

I haven't seen anything other than the last two minutes from the AFL website, but reading this thread I am not surprised at all. The scores through the first three quarters seemed to suggest we were doing the right things. Outscored them with the win in Q2 compared to Q1, then kept the damage minimal in Q3 to only be a few points back at the final change. Then, disgustingly, but somehow still to be expected, we just assumed the wind in Q4 would mean we would win without needing to put in the requisite effort. I don't understand how, after so many positive developments in so many areas, we can regress to a performance that resembles the Round 22 loss to Carlton last year: so much to play for, terrible opponent on a massive losing streak, and an assumption that we would win by default. Weren't we only Jones away from being full strength? Fixed.

Unless someone in the 22 is injured, no change this week. This team should be more than capable of getting the job done against the equal-worst side in the competition. Assuming Jones is ready the following week, likely to be the lesser of Trengove and JKH. I will also say I'm not convinced Vince walks back into the side after his suspension. His form this year has been rubbish IMO.

Everyone talks about GWS like they are certainties for top 4, top 2, the GF, the flag etc. They've beaten one team in their last six games and that was Brisbane. Their previous five wins were by a combined margin of 32 points. They haven't beaten a good side since they beat Sydney in Round 5 (and at that point of the season Sydney was rubbish). I reckon they're just going. We're more than just an outside chance when we play them in a fortnight. In some respects I'm more confident of winning that game than I am of beating North this week.

Really, really impressed with yesterday's win. We had 5 or 6 half-baked returning players up against a top 4 side with no injuries and we dominated from the start. Should have been 10 goals up at half time and in fact that inefficiency in the first half is what kept the door open for them. They also got back into it with Gawn's rolled ankle stopping his dominance and Viney, Tyson and Salem all visibly tiring. I thought, though, that our fourth quarter, where after giving up those two early goals we then locked it down inside our 50, was a really incredible effort given we were obviously tiring after Darwin and with a number of rusty players. I thought Lewis was exceptionall across half back. Hibberd and Jetta are making our defence so much stronger. Hogan is clearly working into form and was dominant all game (it wasn't just the marking, it was the repeat leads up the wing to make space, make a contest, pressure and tackle). Garlett seems to have gotten over the sore hamstring and was obviously better for it. I thought Trengove was a good role player and I can see him holding his spot over, say, JKH when Jones comes back. I'd love to see him get another game or two before we make a call on him. Such an important win for the season though - with Richmond, Sydney, Essendon and the Dogs all winning we have to keep winning (West Coast losing today helps though). Lazy he was not. Gut running all day, up and down the ground. Clearly, though, he had lost a lot of touch, super fumbly. I commend both of you for your comments on Hogan and Lewis respectively. Both of you have made your criticism of them known so I appreciate both of you for acknowledging their improved performances. Also Vogon, I agree with you - I thought OMac was solid all day and he is clearly improving. I also thought Tyson was one of our best - yes, he has those clangers which he needs to eradicate from his game but our clearance dominance in the first half was driven by him (along with Viney and Oliver, of course, but Tyson clearly played a strong role in the middle).

This was a 2 week penalty (i.e. 1 with a guilty plea) that was increased to a 3 week penalty because of his bad record. Completely fair. The real problem is that Martin's strike was deemed "careless" and not "intentional".

Yet again, I am embarrassed to be a Melbourne supporter when fellow supporters post some of the stuff I'm reading in this thread.