Mach5

Based on that alone, can’t see them happily giving up all those late first rounders. Wouldn’t se surprised to see them collect a few rejects like Mathieson.

Nah, did it quickly & looking at it again it’s not right. Our F1 could easily be better than 15. And I think teams will be betting on us sliding down the ladder.

Yes, as others have detailed in various threads, it looks like if we can’t get pick 1, we might make a play to get involved to help facilitate a 3-way trade for pick 1 to go to North, with us getting higher up the order for Duursma & WC being guaranteed of Curtin. Assuming Curtin would be there at 6, something along the lines of: Melb: 6, 11, F1 > 2, 17, 23 North: 2, 15, 17 > 1, F1 WC: 1, 23 > 6, 11, 15 I think we’d want to wait for them to come to us and participate reluctantly, so as to get more in return for the party agitating the trade. I thought maybe we could even engage with Hawthorn to get them pick 1, but they’d need to throw in a F1 because their other assets aren’t great & anything they get in return this year might be consumed by matching a bid for McCabe.

Might be an enjoyable ride, with them lacking a key defender.

Unless we convince him to extend. It’s surely extend or trade in 2024, particularly with the AFL angling to scale back FA compensation. I see Petty as a stand-up guy though, and I think he could be convinced to stick around. Hardly a fait accompli.

Maybe. I wouldn’t be totally surprised. But you say that with a lot of certainty!

Case-in-point: We selected Petty as a player whose type we didn’t require in terms of list balance, but he was too good to pass up when he was still there at our selection. Seems to have paid dividends.

You must be thinking of a different Russell Robertson!

You right?

Depends on where you see North finishing in 2024. It could easily develop into 2x top 3 picks. And I did say “plus change”, e.g. pick 18 this year, etc.

But who would take 3 later firsts for an earlier pick? Surely all clubs are relatively aware of a cliff within the talent pool. Teams generally only split picks when they need points, or if they can stay in the appropriate range - this would negate that. It just won’t happen. The only way I can see North doing a deal is for 2 or 3 plus a F1 . & change.

No one has 2 picks inside the top 6 (that they’re willing to trade). But if they are seriously keen on Curtin to the point of splitting pick 1 to get him, why would you care if it’s pick 2 or pick 6 where you get him, as long as he’s still on the board? Where you rate a player is different to the order they get taken in. And another pick before the talent cliff, plus a future? I can see them turning it down & keeping 1, but I can’t see WC making a trade with anyone else.

I don’t think anyone was talking about trading 3x first rounders for those guys, particularly Rayner. Not sure if they’d have received any offers. Omeara was exceptional early and looked like the 2nd coming of Ablett jr, until injuries and (I think) mismanagement took their toll.

I agree that we don’t want him... but didn’t we try to recruit him 1 or 2 seasons ago? When we already had Fristch et al?

More importantly, he likely knows Carlton’s true feeling towards Dow, i.e. how many are ahead of him in line for his role, and if no other club wants him in a trade this year, they’ll happily delist him.

And we’d have to be. Even in the unlikely scenario that WC had said to us that a pick in the top 6, and another in the top 12 plus a F1 would do it for them, there are no guarantees. We could do all that trading only for North to decide it’s worth 2&3 (fwiw I don’t) and snooker us. The only responsible thing for us to do as a club is to acquire pick 11 comfortable in the knowledge that a play for pick 1 might not have a successful outcome and we’d have to use it ourselves.

We hear some variation of this every year. This year was supposed to be a super draft for WA based prospects. Sanchez, Thorstrupp, Curtin, Edwards, Hardeman... just hasn’t translated. Too hard to gauge these things 12 months out. Which is partly why Reid is a unicorn 🦄

2 picks vs 3? Hawks also expected to improve exponentially next year. I think our F1 has value as teams would be waiting for us to fall off the precipice. Sydney’s F2 which we hold has value for that reason I think.

It will be if they want Curtin & the dominoes fall in a way that he’s available at 6. And I think they will.

I think others may have pointed some version or this out previously, but WC are now very unlikely to trade pick 1 until the day of the draft, if they are to do it. To elaborate- they will allow themselves enough time to feel like they have a clear understanding of how they expect the early picks to play out, i.e. if they really are hellbent on acquiring Curtin, doing their due diligence to reach a level of certainty that he will still be available at pick 6 before they pull the trigger. They’d be mad to make a deal before this. There’ll obviously be a bit of faith required to believe their preferred targets are still available, but they gain no benefit by moving quickly.

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14). No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality. Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return. North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3. Box seat. If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

We acquired pick 11 for a reason. Geelong’s pick 7 changing hands would be our biggest concern, but unlikely as they’d still want to get back into the top dozen or so

Make that pick 3. Don’t forget St Kilda taking Luke Ball at 2.

Very appealing. I know it’s sacrilege on here, but I think JVR is a tradeable asset provided we cover the KPF depth he provides. An astute appraisal I heard of JVR doubted he’d ever be a tier 1 forward due to the lack of goal scoring in general play. He’s a lead> mark/free> kick goal type of player. There’s not much of the opportunistic goal poaching or snaps from the boundary, etc. Plays his role to aplomb for a kick, but I think we overrate his potential.

Why can’t you see Harmes was a salary dump? Crom actually would like to keep McAdam.