Mach5

But who would take 3 later firsts for an earlier pick? Surely all clubs are relatively aware of a cliff within the talent pool. Teams generally only split picks when they need points, or if they can stay in the appropriate range - this would negate that. It just won’t happen. The only way I can see North doing a deal is for 2 or 3 plus a F1 . & change.

No one has 2 picks inside the top 6 (that they’re willing to trade). But if they are seriously keen on Curtin to the point of splitting pick 1 to get him, why would you care if it’s pick 2 or pick 6 where you get him, as long as he’s still on the board? Where you rate a player is different to the order they get taken in. And another pick before the talent cliff, plus a future? I can see them turning it down & keeping 1, but I can’t see WC making a trade with anyone else.

I don’t think anyone was talking about trading 3x first rounders for those guys, particularly Rayner. Not sure if they’d have received any offers. Omeara was exceptional early and looked like the 2nd coming of Ablett jr, until injuries and (I think) mismanagement took their toll.

I agree that we don’t want him... but didn’t we try to recruit him 1 or 2 seasons ago? When we already had Fristch et al?

More importantly, he likely knows Carlton’s true feeling towards Dow, i.e. how many are ahead of him in line for his role, and if no other club wants him in a trade this year, they’ll happily delist him.

And we’d have to be. Even in the unlikely scenario that WC had said to us that a pick in the top 6, and another in the top 12 plus a F1 would do it for them, there are no guarantees. We could do all that trading only for North to decide it’s worth 2&3 (fwiw I don’t) and snooker us. The only responsible thing for us to do as a club is to acquire pick 11 comfortable in the knowledge that a play for pick 1 might not have a successful outcome and we’d have to use it ourselves.

We hear some variation of this every year. This year was supposed to be a super draft for WA based prospects. Sanchez, Thorstrupp, Curtin, Edwards, Hardeman... just hasn’t translated. Too hard to gauge these things 12 months out. Which is partly why Reid is a unicorn 🦄

2 picks vs 3? Hawks also expected to improve exponentially next year. I think our F1 has value as teams would be waiting for us to fall off the precipice. Sydney’s F2 which we hold has value for that reason I think.

It will be if they want Curtin & the dominoes fall in a way that he’s available at 6. And I think they will.

I think others may have pointed some version or this out previously, but WC are now very unlikely to trade pick 1 until the day of the draft, if they are to do it. To elaborate- they will allow themselves enough time to feel like they have a clear understanding of how they expect the early picks to play out, i.e. if they really are hellbent on acquiring Curtin, doing their due diligence to reach a level of certainty that he will still be available at pick 6 before they pull the trigger. They’d be mad to make a deal before this. There’ll obviously be a bit of faith required to believe their preferred targets are still available, but they gain no benefit by moving quickly.

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14). No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality. Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return. North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3. Box seat. If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

We acquired pick 11 for a reason. Geelong’s pick 7 changing hands would be our biggest concern, but unlikely as they’d still want to get back into the top dozen or so

Make that pick 3. Don’t forget St Kilda taking Luke Ball at 2.

Very appealing. I know it’s sacrilege on here, but I think JVR is a tradeable asset provided we cover the KPF depth he provides. An astute appraisal I heard of JVR doubted he’d ever be a tier 1 forward due to the lack of goal scoring in general play. He’s a lead> mark/free> kick goal type of player. There’s not much of the opportunistic goal poaching or snaps from the boundary, etc. Plays his role to aplomb for a kick, but I think we overrate his potential.

Why can’t you see Harmes was a salary dump? Crom actually would like to keep McAdam.

I’m sure she had the capacity to be nice to people, just she’s a pain in the [censored] in general. Tom’s a nice simple bloke though.

Yep... he can, that’s correct.

I’m guessing they’ll want Chandler, who they’ve chased before.

Right... but that’s not the PSD.

Thank Christ for that. Couldn’t have standed that. Tom might be handy for a short while, but Emma is a pain in the xxxx. We’re better off.

Well... he can’t easily walk to us in the PSD. Adelaide were expecting and happy to re-contract McAdam, and they have an earlier pick than us in the PSD. They could hold firm.

Maybe we should ask the question of Nick Riewoldt too? Wayne Carey? Kernahan? Maybe Garry Lyon or the Ox want another go?

Just glad we haven’t coughed up Sydney’s F2. I expect next year to be a fruitful deathride with the Swans losing Mills indefinitely & their dearth of tall defenders.

End of First. Which is 2nd really, which I think is fair. Over time I’ve rated Gresham’s excellent agility. It hasn’t always translated to success but he’s been in poor systems.

Wow, surprised how much supporters overrate Harmes. He’s barely had 1 good season. 2018 he looked good in the back half of the season but beyond that he has been very average.