fr_ap

AMW looking good. JVR less so.

Watch the Taylor interviews. He's a HFF now likely to become a mid. That's what they're projecting for him.

Think they see him as a mid ultimately and that 2k time alone will have done wonders for his draft position in that regard. 189cm on a HFF would be a great waste, even if he's very good. Get that body, power and skill into the contest where it belongs. If ANB was bigger he'd be a mid, no doubt in my mind.

I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years. I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like: Reid: 90% * 95 = 86 vs (Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77 Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players. 90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley.

Our media dept are very ordinary

We wanted more midfield depth - we've got two young tall mids, one outside with speed and polish and the other inside with ability forward. Tick tick. Don't get seduced by the fox rankings or scout profiles - it's all nonsense Fox do to try and make this like the NFL (where form is far more exposed and the metrics far more scientific). The order of Windsor at 7 was because both GWS and Essendon were keen. Tholstrup we clearly believed would last to 13 whereas Caleb wouldn't have

I thought I'd watched all his highlights before but the club's highlight package is terrific. Looks an absolutely terrific pick and definitely see shades of Track and De Goey at different times. Has spent plenty of time living away from home and surprised at the combine with better endurance than most had him capable of. Also looked totally at home in the WAFL seniors.

Watch some vision and you'll see why

Don't be

Thrilled we didn't jump for Curtain Windsor our most uncontested pick since Toumpas. Let's hope history doesn't repeat.

We've traded pick 42, so if Kynan Brown is picked in the draft we won't be able to match. We will get him as a rookie if no one calls out his name. They clearly don't love him

Genuinely embarrassed with the effort the last two weeks. To be honest, the women's team hasn't looked the same since Goodwin said he could sniff an AFLW flag at the BNF.

Windsor looks taller than 184. Weird

Ok then

Fair enough. Clearly I wasn't there and you were - my perspective was from watching both those videos which are clearly extremely limited samples. Nonetheless, they meet at several contests, certainly enough to make it look like they at least started the game on each other (Tholstrup forward, Curtin back). In the contests they were both involved in, Tholstrup won most. Not fussed how Subi made Claremont look. My opinion doesn't count for anything, but I see a nice player who for his size is unnatural and unhappy in the contest. All I've watched are highlights, so I'm not claiming any knowledge. Just first impressions and observations. I assume I'm wrong as far better judges than me think he'll be great, but they always do on these prospects & each year c.30-50% of the top 10 are busts. They're often wrong. Clearly if we draft him I hope he's a generational star forward, mid, back, wing, quarterback, wherever. Just go and watch the Adam Tomlinson 2011 Draft video on Youtube. Similiar wraps. Played forward, back, midfield. Clean skills, huge tank. Nice looking player. But there was always a hesitancy / fragility in the contest that Tommo still plays with today relative to the absolute unit of a body he has to work with. I see some similiarities.

I'm not sure a taller Salem is something anyone needs. Salem doesn't play on anyone that tall and nor should he if he is a rebounding creative half back. Are there any weapon 197cm quarterbacks in the league? Stewart would be the tallest wouldn't he and he's 190. The Wing call I don't believe in either - tall wings have been tried and mostly fail. Tomlinson is actually in many respects a similiar athlete to Curtin and that failed too. In fact - Tomlinson is probably a good example of the danger of picking Curtin. There are similarities to Tommo at the same age. If you're saying he's a Mid at 197cm, he needs to play like Cripps to make the most of that size, as he will invariably be giving away speed, agility, ground level. I'm not sure Curtin plays anything like Cripps. Watch this: Now this is a kid in the WAFL so not going to be overly critical...but he already has the body to compete. I don't see a whole heap of competitiveness, tricks, or thirst for the contest. Relatively meek in the contest. Looks lovely in space, a very nice kicking action and does win some defensive 1v1s...but coughs the ball up in most contest situations. Tholstrup, who certainly has his flaws, played for the opposition and actually made Curtin look a little second rate at several contests. With a smaller body:

I'm not sure on Curtin for a few reasons: 1) Speed / Agility appear a little lacking if he is indeed to turn into a bid bodied mid; in that context I'd like to see more of his contest work in the midfield to assess 2) At the same time, as a key back he's a little undersized and doesn't have huge athleticism to match the likes of Curnow, Walter etc. 3) Appears a different kind of character to the other boys at the top end (can go one of two ways) Looks a well skilled and balanced footballer but I just don't see the dynamism for the top level. Almost the polar opposite of Caddy in that regard who has all the dynamics but question marks over a lot of the other stuff. The Steven May comparisons look well off to me - people see a left footed full back and go there immediately. I honestly think Sanders or O'Sullivan are probably our best bet at 6, though I'm not overly enamoured with either of them either. 11 can take either the slider out of the bunch and/or get into the Windsor/Leake/Wilson range. Watson - I would be keen but we have so many smalls on the list. I won't hate it if we take him, as he's a potential game-winner/cult favourite and could release Koz for more midfield time, but it seems a waste to have so much of the list focused on small forwards. *EDIT* just saw the highlights package in the Watson thread. I'd be ok with him... It's just such a shame we won't get McKercher. Assuming Oliver gets back to being himself, Colby would totally complete our midfield and make our forward line issues look way better too. Such a shame.

80/20......our gate takings each year rise and fall on the Anzac Eve and QB games. We know the seasonality of them. Bigger picture & longer term thinking - with the amount of night-time games, the brand will get more exposure - if we play well and are decent to watch. Not going to hold my breath on that though

Laurie isn't exactly tall ...and he plays smaller than his height? Not even sure how that would work

I don't understand this round zero thing. When do we get our extra bye? Sydney in Sydney to open the season will be tough considering the respective off seasons. Grundy v Max again like the old days.

Old mate on the absolute warpath here Love it

A couple of things on this thread: 1) Aaron Vandenberg is a legend. Thanks to the poster that brought up his name. Good memories. 2) We should have smoked Collingwood really

Not every recruit needs to play in the 1s and have 30 mate. We're not assembling a fantasy team on FIFA. Dunstan was a crucial contributor to Casey winning a flag, which benefited all of Chandler, Woewodin, JVR, Turner and Bedford (benefiting GWS), most of whom are now regulars in the 1s. Schache likewise - takes the best defender and kicks bags in the VFL Casey's success is crucial to our fortunes in so many ways. A lot of people don't understand this but there is a clear correlation of the strongest VFL teams with the strongest AFL teams. Bit chicken or egg - but either way, seasoned experience that helps Casey is valuable. Not saying I love this acquisition btw as I never really thought he had the athleticism against AFL forwards. I'd rather someone who was depth but a greater capacity to impact at the top level and carve out a spot - someone like Mannagh. But appreciate he will likely go in the ND.

If we do that deal and take Duursma we will regret it for a very, very, very long time.