Everything posted by fr_ap
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POSTGAME: Match SIM vs Richmond
Wouldn't be holding my breath for a better showing against Carlton, who from all reports have had just about the best pre season in the history of the sport. Could actually be a bit ugly Looking forward to heading down to the old Optus Oval and missing a quarter waiting for my $26 souvlaki
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POSTGAME: Match SIM vs Richmond
Agree - thought Howes was awful. Not a defender and conceded something like 8 (?) goals to his direct opponents. Thought we were very poor overall. Have some concerns we are trying to evolve the gamestyle to match the Collingwood trend but there is a key difference - we don't have their level of instinctive skill or the swell of the crowd to infer pressure on the opposition. Mid and small defenders are an issue for me. Bowey is not really progressing and is a liability in most contests. Howes - see above. McVee looked very 2nd rate today and played lazy footy offensively and defensively. Not sure if anyone sat behind the goals right of the camera...but two [censored] almost came to blows several times and were teeing off with expletives and insults despite a litany of kids running around. All over....someone blocking their view. One demon one tiger - both absolute deadbeat muppets. Made me wonder why I missed footy when I see that demographic and basically escorted my two little kids away from the area. At a practise match family day...please.
- GAMEDAY: Match SIM vs Richmond
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Welcome to Demonland: Caleb Windsor
I thought Windsor was quite tall. Was Judd really 5cm taller? Seems a lot and I don't recall him being overly tall
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 2nd February, 2024
Didn't mean to start anything on Schache...my comment actually wasn't in reference to anything that happened last year. What happened happened and couldn't have happened any other way. Rather, I was only hypothesizing on how we can use him this year. We wouldn't like it if the playing group were still fixated on last year. So let's all move forward shall we?
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 2nd February, 2024
Dee fault
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 2nd February, 2024
Honestly I can see a version of events where Schache plays a lot this year. I have always been critical of his contest and mongrel and can't see that changing - and he could maybe be a liability in a final for that reason. But he has the height, skills and goal kicking ability our forward line needs. He's not a small body. He can chop out max reasonably well and is a good field kick whilst he plays ruck. If Petty spends the year injured and in/out of the side, I can see JVR being the bash crash forward and Schache being the more skilful one. They play together pretty well at Casey. Could happen imo....
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Wednesday 31st January 2024
A large part of wingplay is understanding defensive positioning and being able to hold your own in defensive contests. If the attacking side comes more naturally to him, it could be that Howes training with the backline is for the benefit of his wingplay rather than as an out-and-out half back. If he could add that string to his bow with his height, it would make him a valuable player. Imo whilst Langdon/Hunter are solid in the contest and positionally sound, imo we've lacked a defensive winger with height since Brayshaw moved to other roles.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 19th January 2024
Well done. Got all the validation by telling people ignorance is bliss. It's not pessimistic, it's realistic. Yes, Oliver missed half the year last year and we managed ok in the middle. This was for a variety of reasons - Viney stepping up, Melksham allowing Trac more time in the middle to name a few. We could very well find solutions again. But unless you really don't rate Oliver or his contribution to the team, his absence is overall a net negative. That's realistic, and any opposition supporter would tell you they'd rather face us without him. You can try to wash away the problem with hopes and dreams of youth filling the gap, but he's a generational player. His output week on week is irreplaceable, individually or in the aggregate. His continued absence makes us a weaker side than last year - and we finished what, 5th? Tmac and Brown were missing for large chunks of last year. Guess what - we didn't win the flag, and a big reason was our inability to find competitive, consistent, stable key forwards to kick goals. These two were a massive part of 21 and we miss them as individuals and a combo, and we haven't addressed the deficiency. Oppo teams know we aren't potent outside of Fritsch. So yes, them being over the hill and showing no signs (yet) of returning to their old selves is a net negative, considering they were both very good players in their prime that we have really struggled to replace. Even one of them getting back would help us immensely. Every player is a year older. Very astute. But an extra year is not the same for all, and you know it. Gawn and May are both probably 2/3 years off retirement, and they will decline at some point. Gawn last year had his worst year statistically for some time. With every year that passes the likelihood of their form declining increases. Net negative vs last year. Realistic. Frampton, Cox and Cameron aren't world beaters, but are established senior depth who have played a lot of footy and are reliable (yes, even Cox). Them being that depth was critical to the Pies flag, whether you realise it or not. Laurie, Woewodin, Turner or Howes can't be considered senior or reliable (yet), even if they do have more upside. They'll improve for sure, they might be solid, they might be great. But right now, they're not. That's realistic. This is the exact point on Smith. No world beater, but reliable senior depth of which we have precious little. He, like Frampton, could play in a flag side and do a job. You know it. We might like to think Turner could do the job, but we don't know yet. Realistic. I am optimistic (yes, really) about our chances to improve. I'm excited by Bowey, JVR, Riv, McVee growing, Trac getting his goal kicking together and putting us on his back, a youngster or 3 injecting themselves into the side. I'm excited for what McAdam can bring together with Pickett, and intrigued by the prospect of Billings rediscovering his once blistering form. I have a lot of faith in our senior players and leaders like ANB, Lever, Trac and Viney. I'm excited to see if Mcqualter has any impact on our style of play. But do I realistically think all these points above will be enough to both offset the inevitable negatives/declines (some of which I covered above, others will be unforeseen), our inarguably thinner senior depth, the improvement of other teams AND bridge the gap from 5th to 1st? On balance, no. Do I think if things go more wrong than right, like a Petracca long term injury for example, that we could fall from 5th to 8th? To 10th? Yeah, probably. Yes, most teams can't handle the loss of their superstar. Difference is we've (seemingly) actually already lost 1, whilst also being drained of senior depth. I could post more about all the things I'm excited about. On this occasion I chose to post about what I'm concerned about. It's not supposed to offend you and if it makes you uncomfortable, that's perhaps telling you're not quite as confident as you might think. It's not pessimistic - just honest discussion. Try it.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 19th January 2024
Training dialogue is all opinion pieces mate. You think so and so looked good. They ran drills that were interesting for reason X Y and Z. All according to you, as you're entitled to present given you make the effort to attend. Either way it's all just footy discussion which is what we're here for. The midfield depth is the primary concern. I just don't see how we could cope with Oliver out if say Viney or Trac pick up anything medium to long term. It actually becomes pretty crucial that Gus becomes a part of that rotation and there are some obvious doubts on that. Rivers might make a good mid but we're projecting there, and it will rob us of a very important and strong 1v1 defender that I'm not sure bowey could replace. However you cut it, Laurie, Woewodin and [insert out of position journeyman or 18 year old] aren't the quality of depth needed to win a flag (in my opinion). Add our flakey key forward woes where we rely on Petty who's made of glass and a very young KPF in JVR who will have down days, and I just worry about the ability of this list - stars down to the last resort players - to go the distance. If everything goes right and we stay healthy, sure, I agree we are a dangerous side. Unlikely we get the best case scenario, though we can hope!
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 19th January 2024
Did not go to training, responding to what's been written (this session and others), the state of the injury list, the other well publicised issues and my own ruminations. Been around long enough to see some signs. Hope I'm wrong.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 19th January 2024
We will be doing very well to stay top 4 at this rate. Likely to be missing our best player in Oliver for who knows how long, Tmac and BBB seemingly over the hill, May and Gawn a year older and at the moment, no real depth or youth to excite this year other than perhaps Rivers/McVee continuing to progress. I like Laurie and Woey, but if our midfield depth has become those two, Chandler and ANB in spurts, that spells trouble. Add to this the long absence of useful swingman/forwards Smith/Melk, McAdam so far appearing as injury prone as he is famous for, a big question mark on how Gus looks on return as well as some pretty significant mental scarring at this point (across the team, not just Gus), and it honestly feels like we are a Petracca injury away from missing the finals or even bottom 6. Sydney's list is stronger, Carlton are improving quickly and Collingwood's fan base won't let them complacently carry on. Adelaide are also improving rapidly and should compete if Walker can keep defying his age. The middle of our list is thinner than it's been for years. Just feels like we are slipping off the best teams at the moment. Don't come for my throat - just can't shake the feeling we are due to tumble. It's not MFCSS either - i haven't felt this way about the list in at least 5 years I think.
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Training Ground?
I'm no fan of Caulfield the area or the South-East in general - (I know a lot of you live there but tbh there are far better places to live in Melbourne that are relatively unexplored by the standard East/Southeast types) - but I agree that this seems like a terrific option for our base which ticks a lot of boxes. We were always going to have to compromise on a few things but all in all this seems to have relatively few. I'm not sure of the appeal/obssession with Port Melbourne, which in some parts is basically inaccessible by public transport. Beggars cant be choosers...
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Maynard must get at least four weeks
We all know if May had done this they probably would have found a way to boot him from the game Doing it to De Goey is an unfair comparison btw....the comparison is a fair, best 3-5 22 prime mover who is universally loved by the team and across the comp. Think sidebottom, who incidentally, they would not have won the GF without I'm still furious about it all, it's such a shame
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Jake Bowey Re-Signs until 2026
Well he's not a patch on IQ. Has quietly become just about the best mid sized defender in the comp
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Jake Bowey Re-Signs until 2026
Doesn't have anything close to Quaynors athletic profile. I like what Bowser brings but his 1v1 losses in the d50 have been very costly and he is our weak link down back in that regard. I think he'd be a very handy half forward with his skills and nous around goal.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Wednesday 29th November 2023
Thanks all for the comments A few things -we should petition the club to give WCW the media gig. She's already doing a better job then they are at bringing us information (& photos!) - one reason for McAdam leaving Adelaide was apparently disagreements with Burgess. We may be seeing why .. - disappointing to hear on Jefferson. Everything pointed out aligns with my fears for him.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Monday 27th November, 2023
AMW looking good. JVR less so.
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Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup
Watch the Taylor interviews. He's a HFF now likely to become a mid. That's what they're projecting for him.
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Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup
Think they see him as a mid ultimately and that 2k time alone will have done wonders for his draft position in that regard. 189cm on a HFF would be a great waste, even if he's very good. Get that body, power and skill into the contest where it belongs. If ANB was bigger he'd be a mid, no doubt in my mind.
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Harley Reid
I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years. I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like: Reid: 90% * 95 = 86 vs (Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77 Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players. 90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley.
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Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup
Our media dept are very ordinary
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Welcome to Demonland: Caleb Windsor
We wanted more midfield depth - we've got two young tall mids, one outside with speed and polish and the other inside with ability forward. Tick tick. Don't get seduced by the fox rankings or scout profiles - it's all nonsense Fox do to try and make this like the NFL (where form is far more exposed and the metrics far more scientific). The order of Windsor at 7 was because both GWS and Essendon were keen. Tholstrup we clearly believed would last to 13 whereas Caleb wouldn't have
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Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup
- Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup
I thought I'd watched all his highlights before but the club's highlight package is terrific. Looks an absolutely terrific pick and definitely see shades of Track and De Goey at different times. Has spent plenty of time living away from home and surprised at the combine with better endurance than most had him capable of. Also looked totally at home in the WAFL seniors. - Welcome to Demonland Koltyn Tholstrup