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They're just not popping in my head when I think of contenders. Can't figure out why...

Tis a good point. Maybe Scott has underachieved? Or maybe, as we all seem to remember when almost every premier fails to go back to back...it's incredibly hard and you need a truckload of luck

Whilst I still think Carlton are the team to beat this year, it's hard to deny Geelong is pretty much the best run club in the AFL. Yes, they have natural advantages (the home ground and the region). But they consistently make the most of them by recruiting and developing incredibly well. We all saw the cliff coming - so they go and get Cameron to win them another flag with that generation. Now another cliff - they bring in a cohort of 22-24 year olds with senior experience - Bruhn, Bowes, O Henry - for really not much in capital (negative capital in the sake of Bowes). With our list profile - where that is an age group we are light on outside of Kozzie, Riv and Sparrow - we'd be lucky to have acquired any of those three. Add to this a drafting and recruiting staff that really very rarely miss even though they aren't getting top top picks - think SDK, Holmes, J Henry et.al - and you have a perennial contender. Arguably the best off field stuff in the AFL, an amazing culture of high achievement and one of if not the best coaches in the game too. They make smart decisions - where we sometimes rush players in, they rest their ageing or banged up stars when they don't need them (in turn passing responsibility to the next generation). A club that knows how to do it and plays the long game (vs. Us playing track with a broken leg etc. in our desperation to win again in our brief window) A lucky club in some ways, but extraordinarily well run. They are an example we should be trying to follow. I don't like them at all, but respect what they do. Sydney the closest thing from a consistency and cultural perspective. Perhaps no small coincidence they also benefit from an academy which is analogous to the recruiting advantages of the Vic surf coast. I suspect we aren't quite at their level this year especially with the level of youth we are carrying in the team, but very happy to be pleasantly surprised otherwise!

Perfect post. We arent competing for the flag, and barely for the 4, if Howes Woey Windsor and Laurie are mainstays. We could maybe carry 2 of them, but our bottom 6-8 just become so poor - it's not the list profile of a competing team. Especially if our stars continue to underperform and the more developed youth (Petty, Sparrow) offer next to nothing.

Not sure what issue anyone can have with this post. He's allowed to have his opinion and it appears its reasonably informed and well laid out, whilst obviously also pointing out he would support Fullarton if selected. Personally I've never actually watched him play a game so have nothing to add. We probably need to see what he has sooner or later either way - we took the time to recruit him, so unless they think Brown & Petty with JVR in the ruck is our Plan A (it might be) then wouldn't mind seeing him play. Tigers have two good tall defenders in Young and Miller, but they are young and can be beaten.

Yep this is (mostly) it. The 6-8 assessment isn't really a reflection of the W-L records at the moment...we are 6 games in and if the fixture is compromised for a whole year, it's beyond compromised and barely comparable across teams after 6 rounds. Record to date is a factor (probability-wise) in terms of likelihood for top 2/4, but a minor one having only played 25% of the season. The comment is more rooted in my (subjective) assessment of the lists, strengths/weaknesses, gamestyle and the very very subjective vibe I get from watching. Of course that's informed by who they've all played - so it's all a subjective exercise. But almost everything is - doesn't mean you can't discuss it or project forward. IMO at this stage you need to watch for what each team looks like at its best, knowing that there will be aberrations along the way. Carlton aren't infallible but they have terrific depth. It's the best list in the comp by some margin. Somewhere between 4-8 of their best 22 out and they've not skipped a beat. The midfield bats 6-8 deep on A-C+ quality (ours is probably 5 deep at best). Players like Cowan would have gotten many more games on a list like ours. More generally, they just have the look of a side that has figured out how to win. They are finding results in a number of ways, know themselves and just look engaged and hungry in every spot. Call it culture - they're building something special there. It reminds me of us in many ways. Yeah, they lost to Adelaide....who had a 1 in 100 day in front of goal and barely missed. Owies missed a sitter with 1 min to go that would have sealed it. They were the better team. It happens. Are they perfect? No - they probably lack an elite 2nd KPD and rely on Weitering a lot - but then so do we with May. TDK is their Jackson style point of difference. It's their flag to lose and I think we are watching their 2021. Geelong I'm actually less sold on - I think they are still propped up by their ageing stars to a degree and question their durability - but they have an extremely soft draw so are top 4 locks - and their younger cohort is underrated. Bruhn is a star not getting the attention he deserves, and between SDK/Close/Stengel/the Henry's etc. they've actually managed the exit of their superstars extremely well. People still don't realise what a luxury Blicavs is. It's a good list with a good coach, good culture and a soft draw. They'll go close. You'd be hard pressed to watch GWS and convince yourself there is a better offensive team in the comp. Their general skill level and footy IQ across most positions is off the charts. And their point of difference to the other top teams is pace, in most spots. They rely on Hogan to score and his form is a big factor for their form - but he looks so healthy and happy so no reason to suspect it might not continue. As much as I lauded Carlton above, Taylor and Coniglio probably make GWS a 3 goal better side considering it was Curnow/McKay who did it. But that speaks to their depth - which isn't quite at Carlton levels. They're the top 3 imo. Sydney have an incredible young midfield, but will need McDonald, amartey and Maclean to fire and I don't think that's a flag quality fwd line. Port also have an incredible young midfield, but lack the real quality depth around the flanks IMO and have a questionable culture when the going gets tough. Brisbane, who knows given their start. We know they're good enough but not convinced they have the mentality. Pies - don't have the best list, haven't for a while, but have an amazing amazing coach, many good players and the best young player in the league. Obvious thing to say that if they get on a roll they can do it. We're towards the bottom half of that mix imo. We have arguably the strongest culture which gets us far, but probably out of that group the weakest depth where it matters most - in midfield. The loss of Gus, Jordon, Harmes in one fell swoop and to a lesser extent Dunstan is starting to show in there with Clarry struggling. And other than Fritsch or Koz (who we insert into the mid because of lack of depth), we dont really have a forward line that can cover a soundly beaten midfield. We do have the defence- but a lot of that is an ageing May. When he has bad days we look very vulnerable, particularly against fast skilful sides. We are objectively weaker than 2021 in just about every spot that's changed - we haven't adequately replaced Hibberd, Jackson or Harmes in my opinion. McVee a great find, but not quite Hibberd level defensively (yet). Bowey is a bit better than 2021, but not a heap. Sparrow too. Add the loss of Gus (who Hunter or Billings are not a patch on) and it just adds up. Windsor has been a find, but he's a kid. Howes is imo not of the quality required for a top 4 side, JVR too. The loss of Jackson, who cost us so much in such a unique and valuable position in the modern game, is massive. Grundy was a mistake, and now JVR is having to make a decent, but not difference making fist of it. We're good, sometimes great, but our games against Sydney, Port and Brisbane just showed signs that we don't quite have enough bases covered this year. Go nuts on me - don't really care, just my opinion and enjoy the footy talk if we can keep it to that.

Certainly feels like we're firmly in the 6-8 bracket doesn't it.

Yeo despises the Dees. Would never happen.

Love the optimism but not sure Harry will still be around in 2035 anyway

Yeah. Not what I expected from him. Prepared to excuse a poor debut - Petty's is still the worst I've ever seen - but he looked completely unsure about when to go or when to stay. Shouldn't have played, potentially harmful to his development. Needs time at Casey to learn. I know Laurie hasn't blown us away but is the closest positionally to what Koz provides ...has been around....has dominated vfl and put in a massive pre season. He deserved the chance. Poor decision to give Kolt the debut.

Can you point me to those outings please. Might help us all feel better

Bingo

I hope it doesn't for our chances against Brisbane, but the week should stand and we as a fan base should be accepting of this. It's an action that was entirely unnecessary - that he could have 'laid out' Soligo but didn't is completely irrelevant and tbh a very silly thing to say. "I could have decked the guy but only elbowed him slightly in the head, I'm innocent". Ridiculous suggestion. Separately, the commentary around Koz and his nature has been disgusting. Even without the Roar article, Collingwood and Carlton fans have been into him for a long time. Carlton fans in particular despise Koz (because he's consistently pulled their pants down, Motlop is half as good only in their wettest of dreams) - their common name for him is 'the junkyard dog'. People will deny it but there is a particularly pernicious tone to these accusations when it's a player of certain colour. Seen it before in this sport all too many times.

I counted 5 consecutive game turning decisions in that period...miss one, maybe. Two, possible. But to miss 5 consecutively when the game was on the line...totally disgraceful.

I'm a bit disappointed there are many on here that have the red n blue glasses on given what we've been through in this area. Yes, Maynard was a bit worse and I was one of many here who wanted him gone for a long time. No two incidents are the same but this is a similar action - one difference Koz has led with the point of the elbow to the temple. He is lucky the player wasn't hurt more badly as there is potential for serious harm here whether it looks innocuous at regular speed or not. Gus retired due to an accumulation of hits - most of them different to this, some self inflicted, but some were actually a bit like this. We should know this lesson better than any and we should aim to be a better supporter base than what is being shown on here - he deserves at least a week and will get it. If it was Maynard you'd be asking for four.

Just love how he continues to extract more out of himself. On natural talent he'd probably be the first to admit he'd be in the bottom third of our list - but he just works and works and works and works until he improves. A great role model for other players and for all of us too. Great human and leader to boot. Shaping Chandler in his image, and I've no doubt Kossie is a better defensive forward for the example ANB sets. Has been my favourite player for a couple of years now.

Finlayson was facing Gawn because Max turned him round with a hold / shove of his own. Ruckwork vs strength vs infringement....a fine line. We've seen them call that against Max plenty of times and that's what the Port fans were upset about. If we conceded that free at home on the 3q siren I'd be pretty miffed Overall thought we had the better of the umpiring in some key times....the early lop sided free kick count though was really their lack of discipline. They were just flying in the Port players

Not hard to see why the Crows are strong on Petty. Their tall stocks are pretty average outside of Walker, who's really getting on. Fog is just ok, thilthorpe not there and the likes of Butts/Keane etc are just battlers. They were smashed serially tonight

He was so good against us, I thought it was a total fluke Turns out lightning did strike twice that month unfortunately

You guys do realise the Guernsey with the state and T in the middle is not the home & away Guernsey don't you? This is a heritage one they'll wear a couple of times a year....the home & away kits are yet to be revealed. No one seems to know this

No idea why we didn't look at him. He's almost St Kilda's best player already

Wary of the dogs. Middle of the Rd last few years yes....but this is what they do. Putter around mid table for years then have one year out of the box where they are nigh-unbeatable. Their midfield depth looks significantly better with Sanders (who is a gun) and Harmes - I still would rather him playing for us rather than them. Down back they do look a little green, so we need our forwards to fire. Don't underestimate them - have similar weapons to us really

I agree - but he could be Carey, and isn't...quite

He actually could be so much better. He's got very little craft or tact - he's all athleticism, footy IQ and skill. Obviously still enough to be just about the best forward in the comp but if you watch closely there's a lot he doesn't quite do that well

Even though it was introduced in our flag year, I think the stand rule ushered in a new era of ball movement in the afl. It has become very clear that if you could load your back half and midfield with accurate kickers who are fleet of foot, you can effectively march the ball down the field uncontested. Sydney did this very well on Thursday. I think it has drastically reduced the importance of strong contest teams - us and the Bulldogs of '21 - honestly, if you can find a mark and then play with speed, you can get the ball to goal without ever encountering something close to a contest. It feels to me - not sure if the numbers bear this out - that both the absolute number of important contests, and the relative importance of those contests to scoring and defending - has reduced in recent years, and the teams that are trending up aren't necessarily the best contest teams, but ball movement/kick-mark/risk teams with kickers and athletes. We are for the most part, old school - brute, brawn, accumulate in the middle, slow/intercepting down back, weight up numbers up forward. Players like Lever in particular are a bit of a fish out of water in the modern game, unfortunately. We lack speed, we lack skill (comparably) - which was not the way the game trended as we built this list in the lead up to 21. No coincidence imo that the dogs also fell away post '21. Our confidence carried us far in '22 and even last year, but it feels to me watching other games that it is just trending away from our strengths. Recent recruiting and selection I think somewhat confirms this. Taylor Publicly went for "the two best kicks" in '21 (bowey and Laurie - both not necessarily strong contest players at those picks), they've fast tracked McVee who is a rare modern player on our setup, and this year picked Windsor (speed) and Tholstrup (explosive). It feels obvious really when you look at it. Our best players are contest winners, brutes. There are few players you'd back more to win contests than Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Gus, May, Gawn. But most people wouldn't describe any of them as overtly skilful. We all lament how hard our goals seem to be - that's because its who we are. We don't have Nick Blakey to zig his way around 4 layers of the zone defence in one run and then deft one around the corner to a free man at 35. He was literally responsible for about 6 goals on Thursday. Who are the other top sides best players? Daicos X 2, Pendlebury, De Goey, Quaynor, Moore, Hill, Elliott. Kelly, Whitfield, Ash, Coniglio, Daniels, Greene *2, Taylor Neale, Mcclugage, Coleman, Cameron, Zorko, Rayner Blakey, Heeney, Papley, Warner, Gulden, Lloyd Every team has a slightly different profile but other than Kossie, Fritsch who are forwards and on his best days Salem, it just doesn't feel like we have the same mass of skilful line breaking X Factor players that the modern game is rewarding. Certainly not behind the ball. Carlton are an interesting watch as they are built in our image - but not many teams have 2 different Coleman medal winners up forward. Now clearly we've still had a lot of success over the last few years since the stand rule. That's largely because our contest is so good, we're still going to beat most teams outside the top 4. So contest is still important - but I think at the very top level, slightly less important to be good at that than it is to good at moving the ball. I'm not blaming any external factor here - the game is always changing - but ultimately we have a pretty dogmatic coach stuck in a bit of a bygone era and a list built for a slightly different time. This was longer than intended, apologies