fr_ap

Training dialogue is all opinion pieces mate. You think so and so looked good. They ran drills that were interesting for reason X Y and Z. All according to you, as you're entitled to present given you make the effort to attend. Either way it's all just footy discussion which is what we're here for. The midfield depth is the primary concern. I just don't see how we could cope with Oliver out if say Viney or Trac pick up anything medium to long term. It actually becomes pretty crucial that Gus becomes a part of that rotation and there are some obvious doubts on that. Rivers might make a good mid but we're projecting there, and it will rob us of a very important and strong 1v1 defender that I'm not sure bowey could replace. However you cut it, Laurie, Woewodin and [insert out of position journeyman or 18 year old] aren't the quality of depth needed to win a flag (in my opinion). Add our flakey key forward woes where we rely on Petty who's made of glass and a very young KPF in JVR who will have down days, and I just worry about the ability of this list - stars down to the last resort players - to go the distance. If everything goes right and we stay healthy, sure, I agree we are a dangerous side. Unlikely we get the best case scenario, though we can hope!

Did not go to training, responding to what's been written (this session and others), the state of the injury list, the other well publicised issues and my own ruminations. Been around long enough to see some signs. Hope I'm wrong.

We will be doing very well to stay top 4 at this rate. Likely to be missing our best player in Oliver for who knows how long, Tmac and BBB seemingly over the hill, May and Gawn a year older and at the moment, no real depth or youth to excite this year other than perhaps Rivers/McVee continuing to progress. I like Laurie and Woey, but if our midfield depth has become those two, Chandler and ANB in spurts, that spells trouble. Add to this the long absence of useful swingman/forwards Smith/Melk, McAdam so far appearing as injury prone as he is famous for, a big question mark on how Gus looks on return as well as some pretty significant mental scarring at this point (across the team, not just Gus), and it honestly feels like we are a Petracca injury away from missing the finals or even bottom 6. Sydney's list is stronger, Carlton are improving quickly and Collingwood's fan base won't let them complacently carry on. Adelaide are also improving rapidly and should compete if Walker can keep defying his age. The middle of our list is thinner than it's been for years. Just feels like we are slipping off the best teams at the moment. Don't come for my throat - just can't shake the feeling we are due to tumble. It's not MFCSS either - i haven't felt this way about the list in at least 5 years I think.

I'm no fan of Caulfield the area or the South-East in general - (I know a lot of you live there but tbh there are far better places to live in Melbourne that are relatively unexplored by the standard East/Southeast types) - but I agree that this seems like a terrific option for our base which ticks a lot of boxes. We were always going to have to compromise on a few things but all in all this seems to have relatively few. I'm not sure of the appeal/obssession with Port Melbourne, which in some parts is basically inaccessible by public transport. Beggars cant be choosers...

We all know if May had done this they probably would have found a way to boot him from the game Doing it to De Goey is an unfair comparison btw....the comparison is a fair, best 3-5 22 prime mover who is universally loved by the team and across the comp. Think sidebottom, who incidentally, they would not have won the GF without I'm still furious about it all, it's such a shame

Well he's not a patch on IQ. Has quietly become just about the best mid sized defender in the comp

Doesn't have anything close to Quaynors athletic profile. I like what Bowser brings but his 1v1 losses in the d50 have been very costly and he is our weak link down back in that regard. I think he'd be a very handy half forward with his skills and nous around goal.

Thanks all for the comments A few things -we should petition the club to give WCW the media gig. She's already doing a better job then they are at bringing us information (& photos!) - one reason for McAdam leaving Adelaide was apparently disagreements with Burgess. We may be seeing why .. - disappointing to hear on Jefferson. Everything pointed out aligns with my fears for him.

AMW looking good. JVR less so.

Watch the Taylor interviews. He's a HFF now likely to become a mid. That's what they're projecting for him.

Think they see him as a mid ultimately and that 2k time alone will have done wonders for his draft position in that regard. 189cm on a HFF would be a great waste, even if he's very good. Get that body, power and skill into the contest where it belongs. If ANB was bigger he'd be a mid, no doubt in my mind.

I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years. I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like: Reid: 90% * 95 = 86 vs (Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77 Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players. 90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley.

Our media dept are very ordinary

We wanted more midfield depth - we've got two young tall mids, one outside with speed and polish and the other inside with ability forward. Tick tick. Don't get seduced by the fox rankings or scout profiles - it's all nonsense Fox do to try and make this like the NFL (where form is far more exposed and the metrics far more scientific). The order of Windsor at 7 was because both GWS and Essendon were keen. Tholstrup we clearly believed would last to 13 whereas Caleb wouldn't have

I thought I'd watched all his highlights before but the club's highlight package is terrific. Looks an absolutely terrific pick and definitely see shades of Track and De Goey at different times. Has spent plenty of time living away from home and surprised at the combine with better endurance than most had him capable of. Also looked totally at home in the WAFL seniors.

Watch some vision and you'll see why

Don't be

Thrilled we didn't jump for Curtain Windsor our most uncontested pick since Toumpas. Let's hope history doesn't repeat.

We've traded pick 42, so if Kynan Brown is picked in the draft we won't be able to match. We will get him as a rookie if no one calls out his name. They clearly don't love him

Genuinely embarrassed with the effort the last two weeks. To be honest, the women's team hasn't looked the same since Goodwin said he could sniff an AFLW flag at the BNF.

Windsor looks taller than 184. Weird

Ok then

Fair enough. Clearly I wasn't there and you were - my perspective was from watching both those videos which are clearly extremely limited samples. Nonetheless, they meet at several contests, certainly enough to make it look like they at least started the game on each other (Tholstrup forward, Curtin back). In the contests they were both involved in, Tholstrup won most. Not fussed how Subi made Claremont look. My opinion doesn't count for anything, but I see a nice player who for his size is unnatural and unhappy in the contest. All I've watched are highlights, so I'm not claiming any knowledge. Just first impressions and observations. I assume I'm wrong as far better judges than me think he'll be great, but they always do on these prospects & each year c.30-50% of the top 10 are busts. They're often wrong. Clearly if we draft him I hope he's a generational star forward, mid, back, wing, quarterback, wherever. Just go and watch the Adam Tomlinson 2011 Draft video on Youtube. Similiar wraps. Played forward, back, midfield. Clean skills, huge tank. Nice looking player. But there was always a hesitancy / fragility in the contest that Tommo still plays with today relative to the absolute unit of a body he has to work with. I see some similiarities.

I'm not sure a taller Salem is something anyone needs. Salem doesn't play on anyone that tall and nor should he if he is a rebounding creative half back. Are there any weapon 197cm quarterbacks in the league? Stewart would be the tallest wouldn't he and he's 190. The Wing call I don't believe in either - tall wings have been tried and mostly fail. Tomlinson is actually in many respects a similiar athlete to Curtin and that failed too. In fact - Tomlinson is probably a good example of the danger of picking Curtin. There are similarities to Tommo at the same age. If you're saying he's a Mid at 197cm, he needs to play like Cripps to make the most of that size, as he will invariably be giving away speed, agility, ground level. I'm not sure Curtin plays anything like Cripps. Watch this: Now this is a kid in the WAFL so not going to be overly critical...but he already has the body to compete. I don't see a whole heap of competitiveness, tricks, or thirst for the contest. Relatively meek in the contest. Looks lovely in space, a very nice kicking action and does win some defensive 1v1s...but coughs the ball up in most contest situations. Tholstrup, who certainly has his flaws, played for the opposition and actually made Curtin look a little second rate at several contests. With a smaller body: