fr_ap

Good discussion guys

No, they likely won't. We all said it about the demons of 21 and the Bulldogs of 16. They had a lot fall into place and played well on the day. As their rise showed and as our stagnation post-21 showed, things are never as good or as bad as they seem. The reason for this is that honestly - most lists across the comp are pretty even. Every team has their 3/4/5 stars - and if they roll, you can throw a blanket over the rest. It all comes down to coaching, connection, mentality, and a bit of luck. Players matter far less than everyone thinks they do.

The luck I'm referring to is their statistical profile, not luck within the game which they clearly deserved to win on the day. Statistically, they are the weakest premier since the 16 Bulldogs and I think the 94 bombers before that. Every footy model out there has been saying this. They don't rank in the top metrics anywhere near where most premiers do. Whether it's a statistical anomaly (luck) or whether they have found 'new metrics' is open to interpretation, but 1 premiership and 2 years of close finishes is a small sample size and does little to dissuade. Mathematically, they were lucky to win the flag. I'm not saying their players aren't good or that they didn't own the moments, which they did, very well. They have unbelievable chemistry as a unit and work harder off the ball than any other team. I'm just saying that over the 200 year history of our game, very few premiers have played like that. People will say it's a new age or a new paradigm, but these things are rarely true.

Honestly the discussion on Hill is nonsense. Pure utter nonsense. Fair play he turned in his best ever game at the best possible time. But that was his career high. Kozzie Is younger and has already had several bigger days than that, and regularly kicks more goals and has more involvements and defensive acts than Hill does. We all dislike it when he flies unnecessarily, but let's not get lost in the moment. 2 (3?) of his goals were as simple as getting loose and receiving a hit up kick for a simple set shot. Koz also does this - not as often as he should which says more about our ball use not finding him. The one snap Hill did back on his left is a goal Kozzie has kicked many times. The guy had a good day in a team that is statistically one of the luckiest sides to win a flag. Don't overplay it. Kozzie's output puts just about every small forward other than Charlie to shame.

Looks a good decision maker and has composure in traffic - although not exactly quick. I'd expect him to settle into AFL reasonably quickly - not sure on ceiling. Difficult one to judge

? Why are you talking about Larkey lol

Que?

Where did I pot the Richmond model? We have literally followed most of what they did - right down to Track mirroring Dusty's rise statistically before breaking through (hasn't reached quite the same heights). That includes the break through flag, and now in the years that follow, losing small forwards and depth players who've gone on to better things. The difference is that they went and got Lynch, while we got 1) no one for 2022, and 2) Grundy for 2023. I'm well aware there weren't many terrific key forwards on the market and certainly none of the calibre of Lynch. But you'd think one would have been available with the kind of money we spent on Grundy. Don't all be so sensitive. Call it what you want - a mistake, an experiment, whatever. We played a hand and it didn't work. Richmond made a similar choice with Lynch and it went a long way towards flags 2 and 3. Ask any Richmond fan and they'll tell you how important it was.

Spargo leaving would not surprise me. Clearly been unhappy for most of the year and it's a position we have multiple options in including AMW (who needs to be in the team soon), and McAdam, who is taller but still not a big forward. We really are following the Richmond model of losing all our premiership small forwards. If only we'd followed with the key forward acquisition ...they wouldn't have won #2 or 3 without Lynch imo. Using Jackson's dollars on Grundy was a massive mistake.

Very well said. They have picked a game style that suits their strengths. We've picked one that suits ours. It's not as fun to watch, but we're statistically the best team over the last 3 years. Giants aren't. Gamestyle is a big part of that. Re. Bedford, Hunt and others - something to consider is that when a player leaves the dees, they invariably do quite well. Imo this says more about our development than the team they join. Bedford was very very raw when he learnt his craft at Casey, and we coached and guided him for 3 years to the point where he was a weapon down there. He can be proud of himself, but he also owes us a debt of gratitude. AMW is tracking in a similiar way in that he is now a very important player down there. It won't be long before we see him in the team. Ditto Hunt. There are probably 20 players more talented than him on the WCE list. He had a great year because he brought Melbourne standards and Melbourne development with him. I know we're all in despair ATM and it sucks. But you need a lot of luck to get there - particularly with injuries. We could not find continuity in our forward half all year and in reality it was always NQR. We had method troubles in mid-21 but not the personnel issues we had this year.

Tou che. Didn't realise what I did there haha

Wow mate you are in for disappointment if you think this is a formality. They have a terrific list, several gamebreakers (Brownlow medallist, Coleman medallist) and have lost one game in 3 months. What is it Super funds say? Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance? It's no wonder they need to say it so often, people just assume the status quo will continue forever.

Getting huge vibes of us vs Hawthorn semi in 2018. They are where we were and we are walking wounded and arguably on the decline, as Hawthorn were. I hope I'm wrong.

The midfield is a bit of an issue for mine. They beat us in there in Rd 22 when we had Brayshaw in, and they were missing Walsh and cerra. Now they're both back in and we have ...JJ. Ouch. Overall the team is NQR and I think we all know it. Wish us luck ...

Gee mate. It's almost like you have no understanding of football

Might want to check yourself. A lot of teams play randoms as 2nd ruck. There have been premierships won with midfielders playing 2nd ruck. Literally anyone tall can play ruck for 20% of the game. None of them will be very good at it, but it's unlikely to be the difference in the game. I don't like the team with Grundy in it, but I don't mind if they give it one last go. Just not sure who it is for. Tmac? Wasn't great but the only established KPF who is fit. Smith? Maybe he moves to sub but he doesn't deserve to and is there on merit. People having different opinions to you doesn't mean they know nothing about football...

It wasn't really our defence that was good against Collingwood. We conceded a score of 60 (arguably more if Elliot kicked normally) off 39 inside 50s. Both of McStay goals were when he was matched up on Rivers, and Rivers was also seemingly on Cameron when he kicked his goal. We were definitely short down back and it detracted from Levers intercept and Rivers rebounding. Both are important to our fortunes and rivers in particular has become important to how we go forward. The score conceded of 60 had more to do with the fact we basically had the ball for the entire last quarter, so they barely scored. If tommo comes in, it's to play on the resting ruck, as May will be on Curnow. Lever will then take a small/midsized which allows him to play his intercepting role (and also get burnt the other way as he is prone to do). I'm not fussed on Chandler or Spargo - take your pick. Either one could light up, either one could have 3 touches again. Jordon is the last man standing for Gus. Tmac and Smith can be the big forwards, with Fritsch the 3rd. That's arguably big enough down there without the need for Grundy or Gawn. I'd like to be able to swing Trac down there too, but then we'd ideally have another mid floating around somewhere. Maybe rivers is that name with Turner taking his spot at half back via sub. On the basis of the above, Grundy doesn't play. Am I wrong?

Guys - I'm angry too but enough. 112 pages is enough. Move on. We may have all the time in the world to revisit this after Friday's result. Weather looks like it should be terrific - we are still one game from a prelim, same as we were last Thursday midday. You never know if we fall away next year, so appreciate it while we're here! Carlton have waited 10 years for the day, like we did in 2018. Let's get back to that energy.

I think he'll be good too. Would still go mckercher. Something about the way he moved and the conviction in his decision making....would be very very pleased if we are able to get him. With Oliver Viney and Trac feeding him ball he'd be ridiculous. Would replace Hunter very quickly too you'd think.

Sparrow does have good moments, more often than not when the team is in need. That's a good attribute to have, but for a starting mid in this league it's not enough. If he's to elevate, he needs to start hitting 25+ disposals consistently. My concern on him is he doesnt seem to have that natural knack for finding it. Jordon does, but he's too vanilla and doesnt have any of Sparrow's weapons. A combination of the two would be ideal...

Presuming we don't get Reid, McKercher has the "player we need" written all over him. Zach Merrett clone, impeccable footskills, carries the ball forward and seems good in congestion too. Will be a star.

Where is this attitude coming from? They beat us fair and square (both in real score, expected score and most key indicators) and have lost one game in 3 months. Why do people think they don't deserve to be here?

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, it's really not this simple mate. There is another team that will be hunting the ball and probably executing their kicks better. Being fired up about a tribunal ruling is a short way to emotional exhaustion. It can be used as a factor, but ultimately the team that plays better footy will win. Not the team most fired up.

You said it dazzle. I'm incredulous and stunned and gobsmacked But we have a game to play and an important one at that.

What the actual f? He just kicked the footy and landed how he landed. What the hell is going on? What logical person thinks he would seek out the contact? Why is a hypothetical movement of the victim even a consideration? "Yes, the man was shot in the chest. But he ran away from the shooter - if he'd just stood still the shooter might have missed. Ergo, its his own fault". The victim was playing the game the way it's meant to be played?!?! I am losing my mind over this - what the hell is going on?!?