UNREAL - Part One

[Demonland 72,186]

UNREAL - Part One by Whispering Jack

Even before the game started there was something unreal about the whole event. We all knew that it wasn't really the Queen's birthday and some were asking whether it's appropriate to describe a game as a "blockbuster" when one of the participants sits in 13th place on the ladder, having won the last two wooden spoons? And to top it all off, the Demons opened this particular contest with the Magpies as if they really didn't want to play football at all. 

At least that's how it seemed.

The game began in what has become  characteristic fashion for the Melbourne Football Club in recent weeks. The team slept through the opening moments as Collingwood applied all of the early pressure, hitting them with everything but the proverbial kitchen sink. The Pies scored their first in a minute, followed that up soon afterwards with another and had a third on the board by the ten minute mark to lead 3.4.22 to a point (the point came with thanks to a Mark Jamar banana kick from ten metres that belatedly turned well after it crossed the face of goals). During this time and for most of the first term, the Demons played indirect football and displayed poor skills and decision-making that left many fans cupping their faces in their hands in despair but somehow, they managed to regroup. By some miracle they trailled by just two goals when the siren sounded to end proceedings for the first term.

From that point onward Melbourne was the better team and, despite the disparity in scoring shots, it should have won this game. Don't let the pundits tell you that Collingwood was statistically superior and therefore deserved a victory - they're wrong. The Demons had the greater number of disposals and had the dominant ruckman on the ground in Jamar who singlehandedly thumped the Magpie rucks. Brent Moloney was the leading midfielder and the two of them continued their season long partnership with career high possession tallies. Together they combined to almost pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season.

If there was one area where Collingwood's statistical advantage was almost decisive it was in the lopsided free kick tally that saw it hold a 10-5 lead at half time. I don't think I saw Melbourne get a free kick at all in the second quarter when the Demons were well on top in general play and could have rammed home a decisive lead had their own endeavours in the clinched been equally rewarded. Though there's no rule that says free kicks should be distributed equally, a bit of consistency with certain rules, notably holding the ball, would have helped avoid confusion among spectators. End of umpire bashing rant.

Well not quite. I have to report that there was a moment during that second quarter when the yellow maggots were giving us absolutely nothing that I noticed a sign that was partially obscured and it read, "Report Antisocial Behaviour TXT ..." I was sorely tempted to report the antisocial behaviour of umpire McBurney and his two cohorts but luckily for them I couldn't read the number thanks to a crowd of Magpie fans standing in front of it. This time, end of umpire bashing rant.

With one point separating the teams at half time, the Demons were back in the contest and they kept up the pressure throughout the second half forcing the Magpies to go wide, kick hurriedly and constantly try to kick the ball long to score rather than to patiently set up a goal. 

It was no co-incidence that they were so badly off target in the third term. It was a result of planned, focussed defensive work with James Frawley, Matty Warnock, Jack Grimes, Clint Bartram, Jared Rivers and a revived Colin Garland leading a brilliant backline. Meanwhile, Melbourne straightened up and used the corridor better but wasn't exactly on target either during the third quarter. Cale Morton's goal was an absolute ripper.

The young blokes were all trying hard and those in the midfield would have marvelled at the precision kicking of Aaron Davey who swept aside last week's antisocial "incidents" from some Carlton gangsters to put in an absolute blinder. 

But whose example does Jack Watts have to follow as a key position forward at Melbourne? At least Jack Riewoldt had a Matthew Richardson as his mentor in his fledgling years (and a cousin at another club who can play a bit when his hammy's not stuffed). Our Jack has none of that but fear not. He has great skills. He just needs to hone them and learn when to take his chances. Don't worry about a few of those gaffes because you learn by your mistakes and Watts is on a learning curve. 

Tom Scully, Jack Trengove, Jordan Gysberts and Jordie McKenzie all contributed to the cause and I can't wait until another 22 games have passed and this lot really start maturing because, by then, the games between these teams will no longer be close and the results in our favour. 

In the end, it was goals and heroics from Melbourne's middle aged players like Brad Miller, Matthew Bate, Jamar, Moloney and that fantastic smother from Nathan Jones that got the team halfway across the line. 

That the result was a draw made it all a little more unreal.  

Melbourne 3.2.20 6.3.39 7.8.50 11.10.76

Collingwood 4.8.32 5.10.40 6.19.55 9.22.76

Goals 

Melbourne Bate Miller 2 Dunn Garland Jamar Jetta Jones Morton Watts 

Collingwood Dick 4 Cloke Davis Jolly Lockyer Sidebottom

Best

Melbourne Jamar Davey Moloney Garland Morton Frawley

Collingwood Swan Thomas Sidebottom Reid O'Brien Dick

Injuries

Melbourne Nil

Collingwood Maxwell (calf)

Changes

Melbourne Nil

Collingwood Didak (hip) replaced by Dick

Umpires Chris Donlon Stephen McBurney Simon Meredith

Crowd 67,454 at the MCG

[to be continued during the split round]

[Blistering 541]

We were pitiful in the first quarter, absolutely pitiful. We made every mistake in the book and were luck to be so close. Surely our coach is capable of doing something about this - it happens every bloody week!

[Eth 4]

We were pitiful in the first quarter, absolutely pitiful. We made every mistake in the book and were luck to be so close. Surely our coach is capable of doing something about this - it happens every bloody week!

Collingwood were pretty hopeless in the three quarters after that

[Salems Lot 2,535]

We were pitiful in the first quarter, absolutely pitiful. We made every mistake in the book and were luck to be so close. Surely our coach is capable of doing something about this - it happens every bloody week!

Um, isn't that what happened, we out scored them for the rest of the game by better matchups

[drdrake 3,163]

As I was standing enjoying a drink after the game, lucky I got one before the bar closed, a few players that didn't play today walked past, Sylvia, Jurrah, Aussie plus a 207cm ruckman, The draw started to be an extreme positive and I started texting every Pies supporter that I know "we have you covered that is the last time you will get close to us for 5 years". So far not 1 has responded.

12 games into 2010 season and we are heading in the right direction. We still will have a few bad games over the next 10 but we will also have a few very good games. The climb has started get ready for an amazing ride.

[Blistering 541]

Um, isn't that what happened, we out scored them for the rest of the game by better matchups

Um, that's not what I was referring to. I was talking about how pathetic we were in the first quarter when we kep making the wrong decisions, coughing up the ball and delivering it badly. We are notoriously slow starters and that's what I want the coach to address.

[godees 863]

I thought our defence was outstanding. All the talk on radio after the game was about how collingwood lost the game with inaccurate kicking at goal, but if you look at the map of shots (and having just watched the replay), almost all of their misses were 45-55m out and/or on greater than a 45 degree angle and/or under a lot of pressure. We pushed them out and wide making it harder to kick goals (and malthouse made mention of this in his presser). I think we probably missed more easy shots (brad green!).

The draw was disappointing but there were some huge positives from the game - the way we fought back after an atrocious start and hung in there despite playing badly, we were without a number of good players to come back soon (sylvia, mcdonald, jurrah), morton and garland back to their best, frawley (i love this man!), moloney and jamar dominating...etc

There are still plenty of areas for improvement, but I'm glad that we have worked our way back into some form after a very poor last month or so.

[predman 0]

Like your thinking DR Drake. Was ruminating over the second half of the season using the Bailey ladder position estimator and we're still a chance for the 8. Given we are at 4.5 wins from 12 games we need to up that to 6 from the final 10 games to get close. So we have

1. Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance especially after Darwin break through)
   
2. St Kilda at Etihad (30% chance, but did OK against saints last year)
   
3. Essendon at the G (50% chance, must win)
   
4. Freo at Subiaco (30% chance)
   
5. Sydney at the G (50% chance)
   
6. Lions at the Gabba (50% chance)
   
7. Richmond at the G (70% chance, danger game)
   
8. Hawthorn at the G (40% chance)
   
9. Port Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance esp if their finals prospects gone)
   
10. North Melb at the G (50% chance)
    

if we win those we should + 1/2 those we could (50%)= 3 + 2 = 5 wins

So we need to bag another 50%er or knock off Freo, the Saints or Hawthorn...

Edited June 15, 2010 by predman

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Like your thinking DR Drake. Was ruminating over the second half of the season using the Bailey ladder position estimator and we're still a chance for the 8. Given we are at 4.5 wins from 12 games we need to up that to 6 from the final 10 games to get close. So we have

1. Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance especially after Darwin break through)
   
2. St Kilda at Etihad (30% chance, but did OK against saints last year)
   
3. Essendon at the G (50% chance, must win)
   
4. Freo at Subiaco (30% chance)
   
5. Sydney at the G (50% chance)
   
6. Lions at the Gabba (50% chance)
   
7. Richmond at the G (70% chance, danger game)
   
8. Hawthorn at the G (40% chance)
   
9. Port Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance esp if their finals prospects gone)
   
10. North Melb at the G (50% chance)
    

if we win those we should + 1/2 those we could (50%)= 3 + 2 = 5 wins

So we need to bag another 50%er or knock off Freo, the Saints or Hawthorn...

Mate I love your optimism, wish you were a bookie.

[predman 0]

Thanks Dandeeman. I'm assuming Jurrah, Silvia and Wonna can take our forward line up a notch or two... Kimba (JW) continues to improve and none of the other wheels fall off... optimistic maybe, but possible too...

[MadAsHell 4,212]

I agree, good times are ahead, just think. If we'd of won rounds 2 and 12 against the Pies and the round 7 match v Bulldogs, then throw in the matches against Kangaroos and Eagles who are two sides we should of beat then we'd of been 9-3 and in 3rd position after having won consecutive wooden spoons in the previous years.

While I think we'll make finals next year I have no doubt we'll have one or two bad games in 2011 still, from 2012 onwards though is when the Demons era will begin for at least 5-6 years. Only sides that will be able to challenge us will be the new expansion sides that wont get near us at our G, an ageing Geelong in the first few years and I would have said Carlton if it weren't for their recruting blunders in obtaining Judd, Warnock & McLean and letting Kennedy and top draft picks go.

Edited June 15, 2010 by Tall Defence

[predman 0]

I don't buy the "we won't make the finals" line that commentators trot out because we're young, spooners, etc... until we CANT make the finals. From out first half season the team has shown they are capable of mixing with all but a couple of teams on a good day, and none on a bad day. So we need 6 good days between now and the start of September with a healthy list courtesy of the footy gods.

Coaches, players and the club are seeking to make the finals in 2010, even if they are not saying it to openly. I heard Cale Morton say as much on radio a couple of weeks back and the commentators thought he was joking, he made it clear he wasn't... Making the finals is the POINT of playing a season of footy EVERY YEAR. Too many Demon fans are too easily content and satisfied with whats become familiar in recent time, another bloody mediocre year and nothing in September.

In the final ten games of the main season we play EVERY team in the bottom Eight...

Edited June 15, 2010 by predman

[s-t-i-n-g-a 439]

Thats right...

[Guest DeesPower]

Like your thinking DR Drake. Was ruminating over the second half of the season using the Bailey ladder position estimator and we're still a chance for the 8. Given we are at 4.5 wins from 12 games we need to up that to 6 from the final 10 games to get close. So we have

1. Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance especially after Darwin break through)
   
2. St Kilda at Etihad (30% chance, but did OK against saints last year)
   
3. Essendon at the G (50% chance, must win)
   
4. Freo at Subiaco (30% chance)
   
5. Sydney at the G (50% chance)
   
6. Lions at the Gabba (50% chance)
   
7. Richmond at the G (70% chance, danger game)
   
8. Hawthorn at the G (40% chance)
   
9. Port Adelaide at AAMI (60% chance esp if their finals prospects gone)
   
10. North Melb at the G (50% chance)
    

if we win those we should + 1/2 those we could (50%)= 3 + 2 = 5 wins

So we need to bag another 50%er or knock off Freo, the Saints or Hawthorn...

If Jurrah is there in-form for half those games we will win six.We will beat Adelaide,Essendon,and Sydney in the first five.

Edited June 15, 2010 by DeesPower

[heartbeatstrue 57]

We were pitiful in the first quarter, absolutely pitiful. We made every mistake in the book and were luck to be so close. Surely our coach is capable of doing something about this - it happens every bloody week!

I don't agree.

We absorbed an enormous amount of pressure in the first 10 minutes, not sure we can blame our slow starts for that but rather, Collingwood was absolutely frenetic at the start.

Obviously they weren't going to be able to sustain it, we were just lucky they didn't get 5 goals on the board in that burst.

To our credit, we absorbed all that and started to get our game underway. The signs were good for us in the second half of that first qtr, so I think we did reasonably despite the Pies' opening burst. The fact we were in touch at qtr time told a story.

In the face of intense pressure, we didn't capitulate!

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

Collingwood were pretty hopeless in the three quarters after that

i disagree, i feel that collingwood still played well, they made all the chances, they had 5 inside 50s for the match and a ridiculously high tackle count, the reason that they couldnt convert on oppourtunities was the fact that we gave them minimal set shots, apart from the first quarter they had very few easy goals, or easy shots at goals, hence the high points tally.

admittedly they dropped, but they were far from hopeless, and it was just melbourne who lifted, started to hit targets, and dealt with collingwoods pressure to rise.

[old dee 23,790]

Very good summery of the match Jack, thread seems to have changed so here goes.

We have 4.5 wins because we have a good back line, a developing mid field and a ruckman who maybe

the second best in the competition at present.

However our forward line has no key position forwards so we try and make do with half forwards,

smaller crummers and mid fielders who drift forward.

Since Neitz left we have had no KPF. When he was playing he gave us a strong good marking forward.

he got the ball a lot and kicked goals, when he was beaten and the ball came to ground there were other

players to get the ball and score. So players like Green and Bate look very good.

Neitz also took the best defender leaving lower ability backs on the likes of Bate etc.

Look at the better teams they all have large tough KPF's

Seen any one in the Melbournes team that looks like Mooney,Hall or Franklin?

IMO that is the reason we do so well against Collingwood they do not have a good KPF either.

IMO we will at best be only a mid field team until we solve this problem.

I might be very wrong but I do not see anyone on our list that fits the bill.

We all hope it is Watts but I do not see any mongrel in him.

He is just a kid I know, lets hope that the toughness arrives as he gets older and stronger.

He just looks too nice!!

[H_T 3,047]

Like your thinking DR Drake. Was ruminating over the second half of the season using the Bailey ladder position estimator and we're still a chance for the 8. Given we are at 4.5 wins from 12 games we need to up that to 6 from the final 10 games to get close. So we have

You would need 7 out of the final 10 games to be assured of a spot in the eight. Mathematically still a chance...but realistically...c'mon.