Too Predictable

[MaccaR 60]

Demon's are the most predictable team in the AFL.

Ross Lyon: 'Hold my beer'

I would also argue that Chris Scott and the cats have been pretty predictable each season, albeit they adjust their game plan to suit their list....and they have been blessed with a pretty good list over the years.

I note there are a few stories this week that other clubs have worked out Collingwood and Craig McRae.

It's probably fairer to say, that when you are at the top, other clubs will invest more time in analysing and researching the team.

[Van Demons Land 29]

19 hours ago, demon3165 said:

See this is the problem, people post something about the club and instead of putting an alternative view or debate, people just have a go at them at least put something up or don't comment at all it's that simple.

Yes. Fair comment. I stand by my 'too predictable' comments. Why? How many Melbourne supporters going into the last quarter against Brisbane, leading by 15 points, knew we would lose the game. Probably many. Why? Very predictable how Melbourne would play in that last quarter. No Plan B yet again. Played right into Brisbane's hands. I for one am disappointed in this team ever since they won the flag in 2021. Lots of talk about a Melbourne dynasty for years to come, more flags, making hay while the sun shines. I don't see any evidence of any dynasty and can't see how they make the eight this year (based on current performances, e.g. poor effort in Perth against WCE, belted by Freo, very narrow win against bottom club North Melbourne, last quarter capitulation against Brisbane). Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest they will be any less predictable or gettable again, next year. The dynasty is looking shaky. And all this coming from a lifelong supporter who is just telling it like he sees it. 

[Van Demons Land 29]

19 hours ago, Demonsterative said:

The reasoning here is way off 3165. 
 

Case in point Fritta being ‘overrated’. He is clearly dangerous and has preformed over a long period of time. Goodwin is a premiership coach. Chandler is the new ANB and his defensive pressure is very good. 
 

I don’t bag ppl for their negative view. I just point out the those who want to bag the club because they are not happy and blame individuals who are not the problem. 

 

My view is the top 4 to 6 players are down on form due to various reasons, and our bottom six are babies. 
 

I believe next year will be different. 

You might believe next year will be different but that doesn't mean it will be. I don't believe it will be. So, is that considered bagging them or just forwarding my opinion like you have.

BTW, I believe the correct spelling is dysregulation

[MaccaR 60]

1 hour ago, Van Demons Land said:

Yes. Fair comment. I stand by my 'too predictable' comments. Why? How many Melbourne supporters going into the last quarter against Brisbane, leading by 15 points, knew we would lose the game. Probably many. Why? Very predictable how Melbourne would play in that last quarter. No Plan B yet again. Played right into Brisbane's hands. I for one am disappointed in this team ever since they won the flag in 2021. Lots of talk about a Melbourne dynasty for years to come, more flags, making hay while the sun shines. I don't see any evidence of any dynasty and can't see how they make the eight this year (based on current performances, e.g. poor effort in Perth against WCE, belted by Freo, very narrow win against bottom club North Melbourne, last quarter capitulation against Brisbane). Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest they will be any less predictable or gettable again, next year. The dynasty is looking shaky. And all this coming from a lifelong supporter who is just telling it like he sees it. 

My PTSD from following the MFC is so great that I didn't crack open a beer until we were 50 points in front in the grand final in 2021. So did I think we could lose to Brisbane in the last quarter, yeh bet.

I do not disagree with your sentiment. My problem, and I feel other posters issues, is I do not think it is about being predictable as you describe.

The best teams in any sport are predicable. Happy to argue otherwise. The most chaotic form of sport strategy I have seen recently is Bazball from the English cricket side…..but this is still predictable in that we know they are going to do it.

AFL is so fast that the players have little time to think, they therefore need a predictable game plan that they have practiced.

I think you are confusing being unpredictable with being able to adapt to the situation. And I would agree, I think our coaching staff often struggle with gameday coaching. But the best teams thrive on predictability. If a player can not predict what their teammate is going to do……?

If you want chaos ball…..I can highly recommend coming down here to Tassie and watching some of our local football leagues. Spoiler, the predictable teams are winning by over 100 points every week by doing well what they do.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 02/07/2024 at 11:52, Van Demons Land said:

Having closely studied MFC over the past couple of years I'm convinced that they have become the most predictable team in the AFL. By this I mean that the majority of other teams have Melbourne worked out and have implemented successful opposing strategies and tactics. An example of predictable patterns are as follows: 1. Jake Lever deciding to take on his opponent on foot, only to get caught holding the ball. 2. Getting the ball inside the opposition 50 regularly, only to fail at achieving a goal. 3. Defence, defence, defence 4. The Harrison Petty forward experiment. 5. Inconsistent hot and cold form of individual players (Chandler, Turner, Petty) 5. Overrated players (Fritsch). The writing on the wall was no more clearly demonstrated than that timid loss to West Coast Eagles in Perth. Contrast that against a hungry up and coming Hawthorn who not only went to Perth to take on WCE but came away with a performance of a team going somewhere, which MFC sadly isn't. Goodwin and his backroom staff are average at best

I wouldn't describe Fritta's overated. In fact I'd say the opposite.

He is having a bad year by his standards....or rather the last six weeks he's in a slump.

The lack of fwd synergy and connection has definitely worked against him. As has the mid field not having its best season 

I'll give you the Petty experience.

And despite some recent signs of improvement ( which revealed how desperately we need a consistent chf connection) he's still failed. Last game his marking was excellent but his goal kicking atrocious.

And Chandler too you are correct. He has shown a great deal of promise at times but his tackling aside is definitely inconsistent.

Turner gets a pass as he's still just starting.

But all in all,I'm not sure I can agree with the claim other clubs have worked us out because I'm pretty sure we don't exactly know at times what our plans are.😄

[demon3165 2,718]

52 minutes ago, MaccaR said:

My PTSD from following the MFC is so great that I didn't crack open a beer until we were 50 points in front in the grand final in 2021. So did I think we could lose to Brisbane in the last quarter, yeh bet.

I do not disagree with your sentiment. My problem, and I feel other posters issues, is I do not think it is about being predictable as you describe.

The best teams in any sport are predicable. Happy to argue otherwise. The most chaotic form of sport strategy I have seen recently is Bazball from the English cricket side…..but this is still predictable in that we know they are going to do it.

AFL is so fast that the players have little time to think, they therefore need a predictable game plan that they have practiced.

I think you are confusing being unpredictable with being able to adapt to the situation. And I would agree, I think our coaching staff often struggle with gameday coaching. But the best teams thrive on predictability. If a player can not predict what their teammate is going to do……?

If you want chaos ball…..I can highly recommend coming down here to Tassie and watching some of our local football leagues. Spoiler, the predictable teams are winning by over 100 points every week by doing well what they do.

Being predictable is the one side of it it is also being able to make alterations to your gameplan but still have your same set up, just look at us in the last quarter 18 players in one half of the ground and there was 3 lions players alone on the wing midfield area and not one coach decided to bring pull forward players especially Kossie then Goodwin says oh we played safe no Schick Sherlock, even Casey do that.  

 

[demon3165 2,718]

57 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

I wouldn't describe Fritta's overated. In fact I'd say the opposite.

He is having a bad year by his standards....or rather the last six weeks he's in a slump.

The lack of fwd synergy and connection has definitely worked against him. As has the mid field not having its best season 

I'll give you the Petty experience.

And despite some recent signs of improvement ( which revealed how desperately we need a consistent chf connection) he's still failed. Last game his marking was excellent but his goal kicking atrocious.

And Chandler too you are correct. He has shown a great deal of promise at times but his tackling aside is definitely inconsistent.

Turner gets a pass as he's still just starting.

But all in all,I'm not sure I can agree with the claim other clubs have worked us out because I'm pretty sure we don't exactly know at times what our plans are.😄

Fritta is a better player when the pressure is off him and gets better delivery  but really he should be the icing on the cake if we had a functional forward line all the time, not just a quarter here and a quarter there.

[MaccaR 60]

7 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

Being predictable is the one side of it it is also being able to make alterations to your gameplan but still have your same set up, just look at us in the last quarter 18 players in one half of the ground and there was 3 lions players alone on the wing midfield area and not one coach decided to bring pull forward players especially Kossie then Goodwin says oh we played safe no Schick Sherlock, even Casey do that.  

 

Agreed. I think our coaching team have been mostly great at development and game day planning, but we not a great gameday coach.

Regardless. I do believe our issue is being predictable. We were super predictable in 2021 and we were unstoppable for much of the year and in the finals.  

I stand my ground that Ross Lyon is the most predictable and boring coach in the league and I can not understand why St Kilda went Round 2 with the guy (unless it was to mentor a new coach much like Roos did at Melbourne).

[demon3165 2,718]

10 minutes ago, MaccaR said:

Agreed. I think our coaching team have been mostly great at development and game day planning, but we not a great gameday coach.

Regardless. I do believe our issue is being predictable. We were super predictable in 2021 and we were unstoppable for much of the year and in the finals.  

I stand my ground that Ross Lyon is the most predictable and boring coach in the league and I can not understand why St Kilda went Round 2 with the guy (unless it was to mentor a new coach much like Roos did at Melbourne).

When the pies beat us in 21 Buckley worked it out they got us on the outside but know one went on with it because it was really to late to change plans on ball movement during the finals.

[rjay 24,928]

4 hours ago, Van Demons Land said:

No Plan B yet again.

The predictable call of every frustrated supporter of an AFL team.

Most wouldn't know plan B if it bit them.

Edited July 3 by rjay

[beelzebub 23,376]

25 minutes ago, rjay said:

The predictable call of every frustrated supporter of an AFL team.

Most wouldn't know plan B if is bit them.

Especially if you watch Melbourne ...   no discernable plan B to see or comment on.  

No danger of getting bit by us.

If i could be bothered id be curious to watch the game at kitty cat park.  Be interesting to see how the wees and pews adapt. 

Our games days are predictable in that we will change up very late ( read too late ) or mot at all. 

And that is used against us by better teams.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

19 hours ago, Demonsterative said:

I call out Bulls#$t here.
 

Fritta still averaging 2 goals a game or there abouts in 2024. 
 

Goodwin is a Premiership coach 

 

💩💩💩💩💩

Not just this one but a number of posts in this thread about Fritta.  Form not the greatest in 2024 (so far) unfortunately and tailed off even further over the last six weeks.

Player Rating Review

Bayley Fritsch (Medium Forward  27yo  188cm)

Rnd 3 to Rnd 9 vs Rnd 10 to 16   +   H&A Season 2023 vs H&A Season 2024

#31  B Fritsch	Rnds 3 to 9	Rnds 10 to 16	% Change	2023	2024	% Change
Contested Poss	3.7	4.5	22.7	4.6	3.9	-14.9
Uncontested Poss	4.8	5.8	20.7	8.0	5.3	-33.6
Effective Disposals*	5.8	6.0	2.9	7.7	5.9	-22.7
Disposal Effeciency %	68.9	60.8	-8.1	61.2	65.4	4.3
Contested Marks*	1.0	0.3	-66.7	0.9	0.9	1.6
Marks inside 50*	1.3	1.2	-12.5	2.3	1.5	-35.5
One Percenters*	0.7	0.5	-25.0	1.5	0.7	-55.3
Clearances*	0.0	0.2	-	0.0	0.1	-
Rebound 50s*	0.5	0.3	-33.3	0.0	0.3	-
Inside 50s*	2.0	1.3	-33.3	2.6	1.5	-41.7
Tackles*	1.0	1.8	83.3	1.6	1.5	-10.3
Score Involvements*	5.5	5.2	-6.1	6.1	5.4	-11.7
Meters Gained	206.7	222.5	7.7	269.2	206.1	-23.4
Turnovers*	2.0	2.8	41.7	2.5	2.2	-11.6
Intercepts*	0.5	1.7	233.3	1.5	0.9	-37.5
Tackles Inside 50*	0.8	0.7	-20.0	0.7	0.8	12.6
Time On Ground %	88.2	86.2	-2.0	86.3	88.5	2.3
Goals*	2.2	1.2	-46.2	2.4	1.9	-20.0
Hit Outs to Adv*	0.0	0.0	-	0.0	0.0	-
*DD's Player Rating	1.8	1.6	-12.2	2.3	1.8	-22.6

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[Demonsterative 3,020]

1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Not just this one but a number of posts in this thread about Fritta.  Form not the greatest in 2024 (so far) unfortunately and tailed off even further over the last six weeks.

Player Rating Review

Bayley Fritsch (Medium Forward  27yo  188cm)

Rnd 3 to Rnd 9 vs Rnd 10 to 16   +   H&A Season 2023 vs H&A Season 2024

#31  B Fritsch	Rnds 3 to 9	Rnds 10 to 16	% Change	2023	2024	% Change
Contested Poss	3.7	4.5	22.7	4.6	3.9	-14.9
Uncontested Poss	4.8	5.8	20.7	8.0	5.3	-33.6
Effective Disposals*	5.8	6.0	2.9	7.7	5.9	-22.7
Disposal Effeciency %	68.9	60.8	-8.1	61.2	65.4	4.3
Contested Marks*	1.0	0.3	-66.7	0.9	0.9	1.6
Marks inside 50*	1.3	1.2	-12.5	2.3	1.5	-35.5
One Percenters*	0.7	0.5	-25.0	1.5	0.7	-55.3
Clearances*	0.0	0.2	-	0.0	0.1	-
Rebound 50s*	0.5	0.3	-33.3	0.0	0.3	-
Inside 50s*	2.0	1.3	-33.3	2.6	1.5	-41.7
Tackles*	1.0	1.8	83.3	1.6	1.5	-10.3
Score Involvements*	5.5	5.2	-6.1	6.1	5.4	-11.7
Meters Gained	206.7	222.5	7.7	269.2	206.1	-23.4
Turnovers*	2.0	2.8	41.7	2.5	2.2	-11.6
Intercepts*	0.5	1.7	233.3	1.5	0.9	-37.5
Tackles Inside 50*	0.8	0.7	-20.0	0.7	0.8	12.6
Time On Ground %	88.2	86.2	-2.0	86.3	88.5	2.3
Goals*	2.2	1.2	-46.2	2.4	1.9	-20.0
Hit Outs to Adv*	0.0	0.0	-	0.0	0.0	-
*DD's Player Rating	1.8	1.6	-12.2	2.3	1.8	-22.6

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Totally agree DD. But is Fritta the problem? I have stated that our top 6 are down on form and our bottom 6 are babies. 
 

This is a team game. 
 

Btw, stats are NOT the complete explanation, but play a part. This game of AFL is too intricate to explain everything. Stats are not 100% an indicator! 
 

Can you stat a block to impede access to an opponent or flow of an opponent. Can you point out when this occurs to allow a team mate a better run at marking or run at play. Can you stat an act that places pressure on an opponent that makes them think twice, anywhere on the ground, impeding disposal efficiency. 
 

Maybe coaches look at stats too much and ignore the finer points of the game. Maybe it’s why some teams use an all out attack when their team is down on the scoreboard to get in the heads of the opposition and have a come from behind win. Case in point Collingwood. 
 

The other stats is great players perform over a long periods. Fritta is this person. He will fluctuate, but it should not allow others to attack his current form and blame him for the teams poor performance. Fritta is the sum of others and poor form. Which stat indicates it’s the sum of others or poor form? 
 

My other point is some have not posted for a while and have come out when the chips are down. They don’t celebrate the good things, they live off being negative and come out to pick the [censored] out of others

 

Is there a stat for the emoji’s and time of posts with negativity. @beelzebub would be case in point here. Easy to stat on this point 

[monoccular 17,428]

On 02/07/2024 at 12:00, greenwaves said:

We've heard all this about a thousand times

In fact too predictable that a thread with this title would come out sometime.

[monoccular 17,428]

14 minutes ago, Demonsterative said:

This game of AFL

Sorry and may be seen as nitpicking - the game is Australian Rules Football: the AFL is the body in whose avaricious, conflicted and hypocritical hands it is being destroyed as an enjoyable contest.

[Hellfire Dub 160]

9 hours ago, Van Demons Land said:

Yes. Fair comment. I stand by my 'too predictable' comments. Why? How many Melbourne supporters going into the last quarter against Brisbane, leading by 15 points, knew we would lose the game. Probably many. Why? Very predictable how Melbourne would play in that last quarter. No Plan B yet again. Played right into Brisbane's hands. I for one am disappointed in this team ever since they won the flag in 2021. Lots of talk about a Melbourne dynasty for years to come, more flags, making hay while the sun shines. I don't see any evidence of any dynasty and can't see how they make the eight this year (based on current performances, e.g. poor effort in Perth against WCE, belted by Freo, very narrow win against bottom club North Melbourne, last quarter capitulation against Brisbane). Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest they will be any less predictable or gettable again, next year. The dynasty is looking shaky. And all this coming from a lifelong supporter who is just telling it like he sees it. 

Hi VDL,

I'd like us to be more predictable in some aspects.  

When your friends ask you questions like "ooh are you a bit worried about the Eagles this week?" or "any nerves about North today" that I could confidently reply "Nah we'll whip those bottom placed sides and boost our percentage".  

Same thing with a WhatsApp message that came in at 3/4 time last week:  "season on the line, back up at 5th... For Now!" I had to ignore it and not reply because I knew our coach and his staff will find a new way to break our spirit.  

In reality we're too nice and too boring.  We didn't stick up for Gussy and we don't call out [censored] umpiring or AFL shafting.  Our coach trots out meaningless cliches and platitudes so often that I think he's brainwashed himself.  Yet he's unpredictable in doing stuff that goes completely against wisdom like persisting with players out of form or position.  I predict we'll still be here having the same arguments next year and the root cause will still be on his journey of learnings.

[Demonsterative 3,020]

8 hours ago, monoccular said:

Sorry and may be seen as nitpicking - the game is Australian Rules Football: the AFL is the body in whose avaricious, conflicted and hypocritical hands it is being destroyed as an enjoyable contest.

Nitpicking! But agree Mono

[binman 42,962]

On 02/07/2024 at 18:40, rjay said:

6 in a GF, in top line of goal kickers in AFL over the last number of years.

Hardly overrated.

Having a quite patch, yes.

Overrated, no.

Probably has been underrated for what he has achieved.

 

Am i right in saying fritter was our leading goal kicker for the last four seasons? 

I wonder how dees many players could match that achievement in our 166 history?

In my time of following us maybe Neita, Mark Jackson, Robbie (but only because we were so bad), Jakovich and then I'm drawing blanks. And of that lot I'd only be confident of Neita.

[binman 42,962]

8 hours ago, Hellfire Dub said:

Hi VDL,

I'd like us to be more predictable in some aspects.  

When your friends ask you questions like "ooh are you a bit worried about the Eagles this week?" or "any nerves about North today" that I could confidently reply "Nah we'll whip those bottom placed sides and boost our percentage".  

Same thing with a WhatsApp message that came in at 3/4 time last week:  "season on the line, back up at 5th... For Now!" I had to ignore it and not reply because I knew our coach and his staff will find a new way to break our spirit.  

In reality we're too nice and too boring.  We didn't stick up for Gussy and we don't call out [censored] umpiring or AFL shafting.  Our coach trots out meaningless cliches and platitudes so often that I think he's brainwashed himself.  Yet he's unpredictable in doing stuff that goes completely against wisdom like persisting with players out of form or position.  I predict we'll still be here having the same arguments next year and the root cause will still be on his journey of learnings.

My load of old cobblers gauge just blew up.

What's predictable is the coach of a side who broke a 57 year drought and has a win loss record better that any other dees coach since norm smith getting bagged by dees 'supporters'.

Equally predictable is the dees 'supporters' who complain about how we are treated by the AFL, umpires, our fixture and how loud and engaged our fans are etc etc not bothering to turn up on Sunday and supporting the team and club.

Much better to pot us from the cheapest seat - the couch at home.

Not referring to you HD, but if the couch fits.....

By the by, this is the first time we play the Eagles at the MCG since 2014, when they flogged us by 90 odd points.

Yet, I think I'm right in saying we have played them in Perth every year since then. A big factor is crowd size.

So I hope any fan who can get to the G on Sunday, but chooses not, doesn't whinge when we only play the Eagles once next season and that game is at Optus oval.

[Adam The God 30,259]

On 02/07/2024 at 17:19, demon3165 said:

See this is the problem, people post something about the club and instead of putting an alternative view or debate, people just have a go at them at least put something up or don't comment at all it's that simple.

This response is a very apt mirror for the modern world.

If you put an opinion out there, other people are allowed to have their own opinion too, and that opinion might be a critique. 

Let's get on with it.

Edited July 4 by Binmans PA

[D Rev 629]

Speaking of predictions, Sportsbet has at $3.20 to make the 8.  

[Van Demons Land 29]

10 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

This response is a very apt mirror for the modern world.

If you put an opinion out there, other people are allowed to have their own opinion too, and that opinion might be a critique. 

Let's get on with it.

I have no issue with alternative opinions or critique being part of that opinion. What I have noticed though, is a variety of different interpretations regarding my 'predictable' comment. Yes, there are other AFL clubs displaying predictability, but remember to add the word "too" in front of predictable when responding. Respond to too predictable not just predictable.

A view of some others is that this thread is too predictable. I see it differently. Unless they adjust their non-bulletproof foundation of 'defence at all costs' ... The dynasty is over.

I've presented Melbourne as a club that is too predictable. I then see posts saying predictability is a good thing (largely meaning internally it's a good and/or dependable thing). To be clear, I'm not talking about internal predictability, what I am saying is that Melbourne has become TOO predictable for opposing AFL coaches and clubs, i.e., too easy to work and play against. When under pressure, the default mechanism is defence is the big answer. That happened against North Melbourne and almost backfired, Deja vu against Brisbane and it wasn't the answer.

It's these types of tactics that makes them TOO predictable. They are highly likely to do it again when next under pressure.

They're not a bad side but they need to become less predictable. How? Over to Simon Goodwin and his helpers.

 

[beelzebub 23,376]

15 hours ago, Demonsterative said:

Totally agree DD. But is Fritta the problem? I have stated that our top 6 are down on form and our bottom 6 are babies. 
 

This is a team game. 
 

Btw, stats are NOT the complete explanation, but play a part. This game of AFL is too intricate to explain everything. Stats are not 100% an indicator! 
 

Can you stat a block to impede access to an opponent or flow of an opponent. Can you point out when this occurs to allow a team mate a better run at marking or run at play. Can you stat an act that places pressure on an opponent that makes them think twice, anywhere on the ground, impeding disposal efficiency. 
 

Maybe coaches look at stats too much and ignore the finer points of the game. Maybe it’s why some teams use an all out attack when their team is down on the scoreboard to get in the heads of the opposition and have a come from behind win. Case in point Collingwood. 
 

The other stats is great players perform over a long periods. Fritta is this person. He will fluctuate, but it should not allow others to attack his current form and blame him for the teams poor performance. Fritta is the sum of others and poor form. Which stat indicates it’s the sum of others or poor form? 
 

My other point is some have not posted for a while and have come out when the chips are down. They don’t celebrate the good things, they live off being negative and come out to pick the [censored] out of others

 

Is there a stat for the emoji’s and time of posts with negativity. @beelzebub would be case in point here. Easy to stat on this point 

You and many others struggle with reality don't you.

Again I neither care for glass half full nonsense nor subscribe to abject negativity.  I'm just for calling spades spades.

I see nothing to get excited about going goal-less in final qtrs two games running.

I get annoyed when sfa get moved or rejigged magnetwise during a game until it's too late....if then.

I have liked seeing some lads get a run but the treatment of Pup is borderline reprehensible and all but hypocrisy.

A seemingly missed point by some is...  when we're going ok...there's actually far less to criticise.  And how many times is required...de riguer ..to slap each other tickled pink happy to make membership of the OK-ers ?? 

I'll continue to maintain my perspective as it simply states what is.

Currently we're a little all at sea with no one apparently in charge on the bridge and the engine-room struggling to keep pace against the tide.

Very much looking forward to Lever getting back to normal. Also Melksham might get his hand on the tiller.  Least he knows what to do.

Looking forward to 4 qtrs of footy. Maybe I'll see it Sunday.  That would be good.

Hopefully Simon's not edged by Simpson.

Go Dees

 

[Hellfire Dub 160]

8 hours ago, binman said:

My load of old cobblers gauge just blew up.

What's predictable is the coach of a side who broke a 57 year drought and has a win loss record better that any other dees coach since norm smith getting bagged by dees 'supporters'.

Equally predictable is the dees 'supporters' who complain about how we are treated by the AFL, umpires, our fixture and how loud and engaged our fans are etc etc not bothering to turn up on Sunday and supporting the team and club.

Much better to pot us from the cheapest seat - the couch at home.

Not referring to you HD, but if the couch fits.....

By the by, this is the first time we play the Eagles at the MCG since 2014, when they flogged us by 90 odd points.

Yet, I think I'm right in saying we have played them in Perth every year since then. A big factor is crowd size.

So I hope any fan who can get to the G on Sunday, but chooses not, doesn't whinge when we only play the Eagles once next season and that game is at Optus oval.

Be fair Binman, I put my money where my mouth is.  I pay for Redlegs and go to pretty much every home and Melbourne based game every year and bring my older two with me when I can.  They're also junior members.  

I'm delighted that Goody led us to the 2021 flag, but I'm genuinely frustrated and upset by the years since and by this season most of all.  You love the Dees too so you'll want us to win everything we can and be our best.  You can't be happy with what's happening lately and there are contributing causes?  Coaching and forward line coaching and latterly midfield issues are a big part of our struggles.  

I agree with VDL in that I think numerous other coaches have figured out ways to beat our setup.  This has led to lower ranked teams targeting us as a scalp they can take when we should be good enough to win.  

A predictable thing that could change for the better might be Goody's viewpoint on the game.  I think him being at the bench is a negative thing and he'd have a better view of the game from up high (like me!).  Is this something that's lacking since Yze left? 

It's not in Goody's nature to have knee jerk reactions, but the higher seats give you a clear view of what's happening.  For example when teams are setting up to lose the bounce; or when they're leaving someone outside to benefit from the contest; or when they're going chipping around our zone or whatever other tactic the oppo coach is employing.  An earlier reaction and changes could have won some of those games. 

I think him being at the bench is a desire to have an emotional and verbal connection with the players.  To me it seems like a general commanding from a bunker with incomplete information and a poor overview of the battlefield. I don't think he needs to be their friend during the game, but he needs to be a cold analytic leader.  

As you keep saying yourself we're not far off.  On the whole the defence and contest serves us well.  We do well when we don't blaze away with high aimless panicked kicks from midfield.  We do well when we don't all flood the 50 at either end.  We do well when it's not boring predictable slow ball down the line.  By contrast I find it joyful when players take a moment to look inside for a low delivery on an angle or to a lead.  

Doing the same things over and over and losing is the frustration.  Especially when everyone in the stands can see it unfolding but nothing changes.  This is particularly the case with inductive ineffective forward patterns, delivery and pressure.  

A few victories would make all the difference on the ladder and for many of those games it just needed a couple more timely goals.  

[layzie 33,803]

22 hours ago, Van Demons Land said:

I have no issue with alternative opinions or critique being part of that opinion. What I have noticed though, is a variety of different interpretations regarding my 'predictable' comment. Yes, there are other AFL clubs displaying predictability, but remember to add the word "too" in front of predictable when responding. Respond to too predictable not just predictable.

A view of some others is that this thread is too predictable. I see it differently. Unless they adjust their non-bulletproof foundation of 'defence at all costs' ... The dynasty is over.

I've presented Melbourne as a club that is too predictable. I then see posts saying predictability is a good thing (largely meaning internally it's a good and/or dependable thing). To be clear, I'm not talking about internal predictability, what I am saying is that Melbourne has become TOO predictable for opposing AFL coaches and clubs, i.e., too easy to work and play against. When under pressure, the default mechanism is defence is the big answer. That happened against North Melbourne and almost backfired, Deja vu against Brisbane and it wasn't the answer.

It's these types of tactics that makes them TOO predictable. They are highly likely to do it again when next under pressure.

They're not a bad side but they need to become less predictable. How? Over to Simon Goodwin and his helpers.

 

The thing is, for at least 3 seasons being predictable was what got us where we wanted to be. When playing against Melbourne you knew what we were going to do, you knew how we were going to setup but most teams couldn't stop it, because we were pretty damn good at it. 

The tweaks came at a time when they probably needed to. Nothing works forever and 100% of the time and I still think it's been good to see some evolution in how we go about it. At times we've trialed guys in other positions, some to good effect. I think it would unfair to Goodwin to say that he constantly goes back to the well.

I think posts like yours have their place because they stimulate conversation. Personally I don't think our issues are due to being too predictable, the players themselves have looked confused with the gameplan this year. We're trying to find new avenues to catching teams off-guard and while it may not look great at the moment they're obviously trying to do something about it.