Stats Files - 2024

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

22 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Does this mean worst game since then, or worst season to date since then?

Worst season.

[titan_uranus 25,014]

4 hours ago, binman said:

This is where there seems to be a disconnect.

Our mids have had their colours lowered because the opposition mids have played well?

That doesn't make sense.

Our mids don't play on their mids. And we don't tag. The ball is bounced and they go their seperate ways.

The one time they play on each other is at stoppages, and as I pointed out we scored almost four more goals from stoppages than them.

So when our mids were head to head with theirs, they pansted them.

If opposition mids gets off the chain, it's not on the mids.

It's on the coaches (eg with the sets ups, choosing to tag or not, pre match plans etc) and the whole team (eg all team defence, all team pressure, all team, spread).

Besides, tracc is number 2 in the afl for score involvements. And up there for coaches votes. So he's going ok.

Yet in the presser Goodwin's biggest focus was on how poor we were in the contest (which I think it's fair to say reflects more strongly on the mids than anyone else).

And the Tweet that's just been posted shows that our four A-grade midfield players (Gawn, Viney, Oliver, Trac) are having their worst seasons in terms of ground ball gets in years.

I also think it's a bit disingenuous to say that when opposition mids do well "it's not on the mids". Perhaps a better phrase would be "it's not entirely on the mids".

In relation to the weekend, @WheeloRatings are you able to break down the scores from stoppages stat per quarter?

[binman 42,905]

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yet in the presser Goodwin's biggest focus was on how poor we were in the contest (which I think it's fair to say reflects more strongly on the mids than anyone else).

And the Tweet that's just been posted shows that our four A-grade midfield players (Gawn, Viney, Oliver, Trac) are having their worst seasons in terms of ground ball gets in years.

I also think it's a bit disingenuous to say that when opposition mids do well "it's not on the mids". Perhaps a better phrase would be "it's not entirely on the mids".

In relation to the weekend, @WheeloRatings are you able to break down the scores from stoppages stat per quarter?

Yep, Goody's focus was our contest.

But that it no way a reflection on the mids. 

Clarry had 20 contested possessions - the most of any player, six more than Kelly, who had the second most cps

And clarry had twice as many cps  than the wunerkind Reid.

Our next most was Max, who like Reid had 10 cps, salo and tracc  next with 9 each and viney had 8.

Head to head, the aggregate cp count of our three best mids (Tracc, Clarry and Jack) versus theirs (Reid, Kelly and Gimbey) was 37-35 - our way.

Our drop in ground ball numbers is in direct correlation to our change in method. 

For the same reason, as evidenced by data wheelo put in the transition thread, our post clearance contested possessions numbers have similarly cratered. Ditto clearance numbers.

Which makes sense given the method we are trying to implement is nowhere near as contest focused, their are less stoppages and fewer rentries into a packed forward line.

[titan_uranus 25,014]

4 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, Goody's focus was our contest.

But that it no way a reflection on the mids. 

Clarry had 20 contested possessions - the most of any player, six more than Kelly, who had the second most cps

And clarry had twice as many cps  than the wunerkind Reid.

Our next most was Max, who like Reid had 10 cps, salo and tracc  next with 9 each and viney had 8.

Head to head, the aggregate cp count of our three best mids (Tracc, Clarry and Jack) versus theirs (Reid, Kelly and Gimbey) was 37-35 - our way.

Our drop in ground ball numbers is in direct correlation to our change in method. 

For the same reason, as evidenced by data wheelo put in the transition thread, our post clearance contested possessions numbers have similarly cratered. Ditto clearance numbers.

Which makes sense given the method we are trying to implement is nowhere near as contest focused, their are less stoppages and fewer rentries into a packed forward line.

Again, I don't think it was "in no way a reflection on the mids".

On CPs, we were +14 in the third quarter. Meaning we were -14 for the other three quarters, including most importantly -12 in the first quarter. Having focused on starting well (Salem mentioned it in his post-match interview), to start -12 in CPs was, to put it mildly, not good.

The third quarter helped even out the numbers (albeit we then didn't make the most of it, kicking 3.8 but conceding 5.0), but it doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.

And maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure you can explain the drop off in these areas on there being fewer stoppages each game. Our average CP and clearance differentials across the season have us at 10th and 11th respectively. So whilst there may be fewer stoppages and therefore fewer opportunities for CPs/clearances, we're still being outdone by our opponents in those areas to, IMO, too great an extent.

[binman 42,905]

14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

And maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure you can explain the drop off in these areas on there being fewer stoppages each game. Our average CP and clearance differentials across the season have us at 10th and 11th respectively. So whilst there may be fewer stoppages and therefore fewer opportunities for CPs/clearances, we're still being outdone by our opponents in those areas to, IMO, too great an extent.

Our numbers for centre clearances and stoppage clearances are almost exactly the same as the swans.

And we are averageing 2.5 cps a game more than the Swans.

I use them as a reference point because we are trying to implement a similar method.

And the Swans success this season highlight how clearances and cps are simply not as important as they used to be.

What is important?

Scores from turnover.

Who is number one for scores from turnover?

No surprise, it's the Swans (suns, giants, cats next).

Our issue is not that we are winning too few clearances or contested possessions.

Our issue is that we are not scoring enough from turnover.

The swans are #1, averaging 61.5 points per game from turnover.

We are 14th for average scores from turnover (behind freo of all teams) on 40.1 point per game.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

7 hours ago, binman said:

Our numbers for centre clearances and stoppage clearances are almost exactly the same as the swans.

And we are averageing 2.5 cps a game more than the Swans.

I use them as a reference point because we are trying to implement a similar method.

And the Swans success this season highlight how clearances and cps are simply not as important as they used to be.

What is important?

Scores from turnover.

Who is number one for scores from turnover?

No surprise, it's the Swans (suns, giants, cats next).

Our issue is not that we are winning too few clearances or contested possessions.

Our issue is that we are not scoring enough from turnover.

The swans are #1, averaging 61.5 points per game from turnover.

We are 14th for average scores from turnover (behind freo of all teams) on 40.1 point per game.

3 of Sydney’s mids are in the top 10 for score involvements. Gold Coast have 3 in the top 20. Freo have 3 in the top 20. The Dogs have 3 (If I also count English) in the top 20.

We have Petracca at 2 (always excellent with SI) and then Gawn at 42, Oliver at 84 and Viney is at 121.

Despite what you say about our mids and their contest work, outside of Petracca, we have one of the least damaging midfields in the game. 

Goody talks about “punishing off turnover” and we have the meekest punishers in the game when it comes to midfielders outside of Trac.

[Watson11 2,240]

8 hours ago, binman said:

Our numbers for centre clearances and stoppage clearances are almost exactly the same as the swans.

And we are averageing 2.5 cps a game more than the Swans.

I use them as a reference point because we are trying to implement a similar method.

And the Swans success this season highlight how clearances and cps are simply not as important as they used to be.

What is important?

Scores from turnover.

Who is number one for scores from turnover?

No surprise, it's the Swans (suns, giants, cats next).

Our issue is not that we are winning too few clearances or contested possessions.

Our issue is that we are not scoring enough from turnover.

The swans are #1, averaging 61.5 points per game from turnover.

We are 14th for average scores from turnover (behind freo of all teams) on 40.1 point per game.

Are post clearance ground ball gets available for their mids v ours.  

Simpson has been saying all season that they are going back to basics and focussed on forward half pressure.  It’s a pretty simple message. Their mids worked hard post clearance to get to contests, including in the forward half.  The result was outnumbers around the ball and 64 points from midfield and forward turnovers.  We scored 7 points from turnover in this same area of the ground and my eyes told me they strangled us and had numbers to post clearance contests.  That’s on the mids.

 

[layzie 33,794]

9 hours ago, binman said:

Our numbers for centre clearances and stoppage clearances are almost exactly the same as the swans.

And we are averageing 2.5 cps a game more than the Swans.

I use them as a reference point because we are trying to implement a similar method.

And the Swans success this season highlight how clearances and cps are simply not as important as they used to be.

What is important?

Scores from turnover.

Who is number one for scores from turnover?

No surprise, it's the Swans (suns, giants, cats next).

Our issue is not that we are winning too few clearances or contested possessions.

Our issue is that we are not scoring enough from turnover.

The swans are #1, averaging 61.5 points per game from turnover.

We are 14th for average scores from turnover (behind freo of all teams) on 40.1 point per game.

What do you put this down to Binman? Not enough skill when we turn it over? Not generating enough turnovers in the first place or in areas where we want them?

One thing I'm noticing at the moment is that that 'tackle breaking' midfielder is very much in vogue right now and if you've got a Harley Reid who is able to break away from the contest and retain the ball without turning it over you limit those turnover opportunities. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Round 8, 2024 MCG - Blues vs Demons

The last time we had a Team Rating worse than this was Rnd 10, 2023 vs port in Adelaide with a 51.85

That was also during the indigenous "Narrm" rounds .  I’m not sure that means anything but a pattern is starting to emerge when we play under that name.

The bottom 6 rated players in this match were a mile off the 2023 average rating, down a massive 58%.  I point this out as many scribes often say you're only as good as your bottom six.

Clarry finishing in the No.1 spot is some sort of positive yes?  That's two weeks from three where he has lifted substantially following a relatively poor start to the season (for him).

Woey also on limited sub game time of only 61% coming in equal 11th spot!  For such a young inexperienced player in a losing team this is a fabulous result and an indication that he is starting to find his feet.

After finishing in second spot last week vs the Blues, May uncharacteristically posted his worst rating in some time, down 77% on his 2023 rating.

He wasn't alone with a number having some very poor to ordinary results including Petty (-66% vs 2023), Brown (-56%), Sparrow (-55%), T-Mac (-28%), Chandler (-27%), Viney (-25%), Rivers (-18%) and Tracc (-14%).

Our KFs have been an ongoing problematic theme for a long time now.

We are obviously thin through the middle without Gus.  All good if all the key guns are firing on all cylinders but so far this season we have only seen that happen in roughly four of the first five rounds.  Something i would like to address further in response to a post by Watson 11 above which i will attempt to get to later if i can find the time.

Player	Rating	Rank	2023 Season Rating	% Change vs 2023
C Oliver	4.700	1	5.002	-6.0
Max Gawn	4.075	2	3.350	21.6
C Petracca	4.025	3	4.707	-14.5
C Salem	3.675	4	2.993	22.8
A N-Bullen	3.275	5	2.532	29.3
T Rivers	3.025	6	3.696	-18.2
J Bowey	2.825	7	2.820	0.2
Jack Viney	2.775	8	3.707	-25.1
K Pickett	2.650	9	2.101	26.1
J McVee	2.625	10	2.320	13.1
B Howes	2.400	11	-	-
T Woewodin > 61%	2.400	11	1.406	70.7
B Fritsch	2.175	13	2.324	-6.4
J Billings	2.125	14	-	-
S McAdam	1.675	15	-	-
K Chandler	1.650	16	2.265	-27.2
T McDonald	1.475	17	2.054	-28.2
T Sparrow	1.275	18	2.811	-54.6
C Windsor	1.100	19	-	-
H Petty	0.925	20	2.718	-66.0
B Brown	0.850	21	1.941	-56.2
S May	0.750	22	3.213	-76.7
Jake Lever < 7%	0.200	23	3.131	-93.6
Team Score	52.45		69.86	-24.9
Top 6	22.78		24.43	-6.8
Bottom 6	6.38		15.17	-58.0

< Subbed out TOG

> Subbed in TOG

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited May 21 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 9,825]

Thanks DD those numbers are chronically diabolical, our bottom eight registered 1.67 or less. Unless they were all ill those numbers are totally unacceptable and our team rating down from an average of 69.8 to 52.5 explains why we were dominated by a bottom four team. What the hell.!!!!

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

27 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD those numbers are chronically diabolical, our bottom eight registered 1.67 or less. Unless they were all ill those numbers are totally unacceptable and our team rating down from an average of 69.8 to 52.5 explains why we were dominated by a bottom four team. What the hell.!!!!

You might be on to something there DZ.  Not necessarily all but maybe a fair percentage?  Covid is supposedly running amok in Melb at present from what i hear on the grapevine.

Probably unlikely but who knows.  Stranger things have happened.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Round 9, 2024 Optus - Eagles vs Demons

*Update to the earlier Round 9 Ratings post which had the previous round (Rnd 8 against the Blues) as the header.  Mods if you are able to fix the earlier post's header by any chance then feel free to delete THIS duplicate & thanks.

Player	Rating	Rank	2023 Season Rating	% Change vs 2023
C Oliver	4.700	1	5.002	-6.0
Max Gawn	4.075	2	3.350	21.6
C Petracca	4.025	3	4.707	-14.5
C Salem	3.675	4	2.993	22.8
A N-Bullen	3.275	5	2.532	29.3
T Rivers	3.025	6	3.696	-18.2
J Bowey	2.825	7	2.820	0.2
Jack Viney	2.775	8	3.707	-25.1
K Pickett	2.650	9	2.101	26.1
J McVee	2.625	10	2.320	13.1
B Howes	2.400	11	-	-
T Woewodin > 61%	2.400	11	1.406	70.7
B Fritsch	2.175	13	2.324	-6.4
J Billings	2.125	14	-	-
S McAdam	1.675	15	-	-
K Chandler	1.650	16	2.265	-27.2
T McDonald	1.475	17	2.054	-28.2
T Sparrow	1.275	18	2.811	-54.6
C Windsor	1.100	19	-	-
H Petty	0.925	20	2.718	-66.0
B Brown	0.850	21	1.941	-56.2
S May	0.750	22	3.213	-76.7
Jake Lever < 7%	0.200	23	3.131	-93.6
Team Score	52.45		69.86	-24.9
Top 6	22.78		24.43	-6.8
Bottom 6	6.38		15.17	-58.0

< Subbed out TOG

> Subbed in TOG

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

21 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

In relation to the weekend, @WheeloRatings are you able to break down the scores from stoppages stat per quarter?

Scores from stoppages, including centre bounce and around the ground stoppages, by quarter

Quarter	Score	Against	Diff
1	1.0.6	1.2.8	-2
2	4.0.24	1.2.8	+16
3	3.1.19	1.0.6	+13
4	1.1.7	2.1.13	-6

All score sources, by quarter

Quarter	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in
1	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
2	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
3	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
4	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
Centre Bounce
1	0.0.0	1.1.7	-7
2	2.0.12	0.0.0	+12
3	1.1.7	0.0.0	+7
4	1.0.6	0.0.0	+6
Stoppage (Other)
1	1.0.6	0.1.1	+5
2	2.0.12	1.2.8	+4
3	2.0.12	1.0.6	+6
4	0.1.1	2.1.13	-12
Turnover
1	1.1.7	3.1.19	-12
2	0.0.0	2.3.15	-15
3	0.6.6	4.0.24	-18
4	0.1.1	2.0.12	-11

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 9, 2024 vs H&A Season 2023

Player	2024 Rating	2024 Rank	2023 Rating	% Change vs 2023	2023 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2023
C Petracca	4.470	1	4.707	-5.0	2	1
Max Gawn	4.118	2	3.350	22.9	7	5
Steven May	3.743	3	3.213	16.5	8	5
C Oliver	3.693	4	5.002	-26.2	1	-3
Jake Lever <	3.681	5	3.131	17.6	9	4
Jack Viney	3.398	6	3.707	-8.3	4	-2
A Tomlinson*	3.175	7	2.915	8.9	14	7
Ed Langdon	3.106	8	3.057	1.6	10	2
T Rivers	3.095	9	3.696	-16.3	5	-4
C Salem <	3.093	10	2.993	3.3	12	2
Judd McVee	2.980	11	2.320	28.4	22	11
A N-Bullen	2.915	12	2.532	15.1	20	8
T McDonald	2.869	13	2.054	39.7	27	14
T Woewodin < >	2.658	14	1.406	89.0	34	20
T Sparrow	2.623	15	2.811	-6.7	16	1
J Bowey <	2.615	16	2.820	-7.3	15	-1
B Howes	2.463	17	-	-	-	-
C Windsor <	2.385	18	-	-	-	-
M Hore	2.273	19	-	-	-	-
J Billings > <	2.268	20	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.253	21	2.101	7.2	26	5
K Chandler	2.130	22	2.265	-6.0	23	1
B Fritsch	1.963	23	2.324	-15.5	21	-2
J V Rooyen	1.875	24	2.170	-13.6	25	1
S McAdam*	1.675	25	-	-	-	-
B Laurie* < >	1.463	26	2.235	-34.5	24	-2
D Turner	1.425	27	1.825	-21.9	31	4
Ben Brown <	1.391	28	1.941	-28.3	28	0
H Petty	1.228	29	2.718	-54.8	19	-10
C Spargo*	1.200	30	1.886	-36.4	29	-1
K Tholstrup*	1.100	31	-	-	-	-
J Schache*	0.700	32	1.525	-54.1	33	1
L Hunter	-	-	2.939	-	13	-
J Melksham	-	-	1.599	-	32	-
Team Rating	66.00		69.86	-5.5
Top 6	23.10		24.43	-5.4
Bottom 6	13.77		15.17	-9.2

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/05/21/who-are-the-afls-most-clutch-players-champion-data-names-the-top-15/

[DeeZone 9,825]

Thanks DD. How good is it to see that Clayton has clawed his way back into the Top 10 clutch players, He’s back.!!!

Edited May 21 by DeeZone
Added thanks DD

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

6 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD. How good is it to see that Clayton has clawed his way back into the Top 10 clutch players, He’s back.!!!

That rating is from the last two years DZ.  So effectively he never dropped away, at least in this aspect anyway.

We should never forget some of the mammoth efforts from the champ over many years now to either keep us in games, nearly drag us over the line on his own back or even change the course of a match to help win them with pretty much no drop off except for a number of rounds so far this season.

And we should also remember that when Clarry is on he is at another level to most mids, even some of the greats we have come to know over the last 6 to 8 years.  There are a number that have come on in the last 18 months of course that are now matching those feats in certain matches.  And as we witnessed over the weekend, a rampaging Reid has now announced his arrival and will (most likely) be something else altogether.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

On 21/05/2024 at 08:49, Watson11 said:

Are post clearance ground ball gets available for their mids v ours.  

Simpson has been saying all season that they are going back to basics and focussed on forward half pressure.  It’s a pretty simple message. Their mids worked hard post clearance to get to contests, including in the forward half.  The result was outnumbers around the ball and 64 points from midfield and forward turnovers.  We scored 7 points from turnover in this same area of the ground and my eyes told me they strangled us and had numbers to post clearance contests.  That’s on the mids.

 

Could this have something to do with work rate, ability to get from contest to contest (fitness), ability to play a mid field role effectively (experience factor) and (as far as i understand from more expert track watchers) our coaches almost always playing a +1 in defence (a kick behind the ball) and allowing most of our oppo's a +1 (or more in some cases apparently) at stoppage?

In terms of work rate / experience / fitness, I’m not including Tracc so much as he is often pushing forward a fair bit and having to use energy / effort to try and score.

But then there's the remainder.

Clarry... off to a slow start but in two of the last three weeks has started showing signs of getting back to somewhere near his usual rating levels.  Let's hope that continues as that would be a great outcome to build on in the back half.

Viney... Started off beautifully.  However, ever since Rnd 4 vs the Crows his form has slowly ebbed away.  possibly copping a heavy tag or maybe the stinger issue flaring up?  Here's Viney's average stats and Ratings from Rnds 0 to 4 vs Rnds 5 to 9.  He has improved on the tackling side and clearances but dropped away significantly in almost all other areas.   In particular his two way running (rebounds & inside 50s both down), intercepts, one percenters and score involvements.  Turnovers also up substantially since Rnd 4.  His player rating down a whopping 28% vs the first five rounds.

#7  J Viney	Rnds       0 - 4	Rnds       5 - 9	% Change
Contested Poss	10.8	9.0	-16.7
Uncontested Poss	12.2	11.2	-8.2
Effective Disposals*	14.8	12.6	-14.9
Disposal Effeciency %	67.9	65.8	-2.1
Contested Marks*	0.2	0.0	-100.0
Marks inside 50*	0.2	0.2	0.0
One Percenters*	2.8	1.6	-42.9
Clearances*	4.2	5.0	19.0
Rebound 50s*	2.6	2.0	-23.1
Inside 50s*	4.8	4.2	-12.5
Tackles*	5.0	7.2	44.0
Score Involvements*	5.2	2.8	-46.2
Meters Gained	377.6	382.6	1.3
Turnovers*	4.2	5.8	38.1
Intercepts*	4.0	1.2	-70.0
Tackles Inside 50*	1.0	1.2	20.0
Time On Ground %	81.6	76.0	-5.6
Goals*	0.6	0.0	-100.0
Hit Outs to Adv*	0.0	0.0	-
*DD's Player Rating	3.9	2.8	-28.4

Sparrow...Usually the next in line through the middle (last season and beyond) behind Clarry, Tracc & Viney (sometimes Gus also) but this year is starting to be overlooked on a few occasions (zero CBAs vs Dogs & Eagles) and played elsewhere.  I'd love to know in what role as he just isn't the same when not being played through the middle imho.  After chatting to him at training about what role he was playing when not in the middle, he indicated he wasn’t exactly sure.  He did state that he enjoyed going through the middle the most however and that statement was after a decent performance through the middle (possibly in the second half) of a match that escapes me.

ANB... worked very well against the Blues (and Eagles?).  However are we potentially giving up too much of his usual two way running to cover off for Tracc & Clarry in the pocket role on the fat side of stoppages or is he still playing this role post 666?

Picket... As per ANB.  A very handy addition but again are we potentially giving up some serious goal opportunities and pressure inside 50 due to time / energy spent through the middle.  I'm not saying don't play Kozzy in the middle either.  Just questioning the amount of time spent and getting the balance right between mid v forward minutes.  Are we recouping the amount of time spent through the middle in terms of the extra score involvements, goal assists (hitting targets inside 50) and effective clearances?

Edited May 22 by Demon Dynasty

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

I have just added a page to the website where you can view team stats for a particular team for all matches back to 2012 on one page.

Here's the link for all Melbourne's matches:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_team.html?ID=melb

[layzie 33,794]

Hit us with those sweet, sweet stats guys!

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 11, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241108

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	75.3	73.2	+2.0
Kicking Efficiency	70.2	60.0	+10.2
Metres Gained	6745	6009	+736
Inside 50s	67	41	+26
Shots At Goal	29	20	+9
Shots Per Inside 50	43.3	48.8	-5.5
Contested Possessions	129	123	+6
Ground Ball Gets	70	91	-21
Intercepts	80	66	+14
Intercept Marks	19	13	+6
Centre Clearances	14	9	+5
Stoppage Clearances	20	22	-2
Contested Marks	16	8	+8
Marks Inside 50	15	12	+3
Hitouts	38	20	+18
Hitouts To Advantage	10	6	+4
Tackles	44	41	+3
Tackles Inside 50	11	4	+7
Def One On One Loss %	7.7	36.4	-28.7

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	5	4	+1
Loose Ball Get	7	6	+1
Other	10	6	+4
Total	22	16	+6
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	1	2	-1
Loose Ball Get	8	22	-14
Other	6	5	+1
Total	15	29	-14
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	13	12	+1
Loose Ball Get	39	58	-19
Other	35	22	+13
Total	87	92	-5
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	5	5	0
Loose Ball Get	13	16	-3
Other	24	10	+14
Total	42	31	+11

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Other includes contested marks, free kicks, contested knock ons, gathers from hitouts, and ruck hard ball gets.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	Rushed	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	99.2	100	2	83%	+15.8	+38	+22.2
St Kilda	83.4	62	3	17%

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	29	14.14.98	48.3%	97.2	+0.8	3.35	+0.03
St Kilda	20	9.5.59	45.0%	80.4	−21.4	4.02	−1.07
General Play
Melbourne	14	8.6.54	57.1%	44.2	+9.8	3.16	+0.70
St Kilda	7	1.3.9	14.3%	21.9	−12.9	3.13	−1.84
Set Position
Melbourne	15	6.8.44	40.0%	53.0	−9.0	3.53	−0.60
St Kilda	13	8.2.50	61.5%	58.5	−8.5	4.50	−0.65

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	171	180
2	169	155
3	192	157
4	167	146
Match	174	160

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Clayton Oliver	31	62	45.2
Alex Neal-Bullen	26	61	53.8
Jack Viney	25	59	62.7
Tom Sparrow	22	47	48.9
Kade Chandler	21	46	49.0
Kysaiah Pickett	23	46	43.2
Shane McAdam	14	33	27.5
Adam Tomlinson	14	27	22.5
Max Gawn	9	25	25.5
Lachie Hunter	13	21	21.0
Harrison Petty	9	20	28.7
Christian Petracca	9	19	34.4
Tom McDonald	10	19	23.4
Ed Langdon	9	17	30.4
Jacob van Rooyen	9	17	16.4
Caleb Windsor	8	16	31.5
Jake Bowey	9	15	13.5
Steven May	9	14	9.8
Christian Salem	9	13	27.8
Trent Rivers	7	13	22.5
Judd McVee	8	13	15.8
Bayley Fritsch	7	9	14.5
Taj Woewodin	2	2	13.2

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	68%	32%
2	44%	56%
3	49%	51%
4	57%	43%
Match	54%	46%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	1.1.7	0.0.0	+7
Centre Bounce	3.0.18	0.0.0	+18
Stoppage (Other)	2.5.17	1.2.8	+9
Turnover	8.10.58	8.6.54	+4

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	7	3.4	0	2.0
Centre Bounce	18	13.1	0	7.3
Stoppage (Other)	17	24.0	8	17.7
Turnover	58	41.7	54	43.3

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	18	13.1	0	7.3
Kick-in	D50	7	3.4	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	D50	1	1.8	0	1.6
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	2.5	1	2.4
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	8	13.5	7	8.8
Stoppage (Other)	F50	8	6.2	0	4.9
Turnover	D50	13	7.6	25	8.2
Turnover	Centre	14	7.1	12	6.1
Turnover	Wing	29	19.4	15	23.3
Turnover	F50	2	7.6	2	5.7

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	21	12.8	25	11.8
Centre	32	22.7	13	15.7
Wing	37	32.8	22	32.1
F50	10	13.8	2	10.6

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	21	12.8	25	11.8
Defensive midfield	27	19.5	25	15.9
Centre bounce	18	13.1	0	7.3
Attacking midfield	24	23.0	10	24.6
Forward 50	10	13.8	2	10.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
48	32.3	50	27.7

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	21	78%	84.2%	64.9%
Clayton Oliver	20	74%	72.0%	81.4%
Kysaiah Pickett	20	74%	32.9%	11.2%
Christian Petracca	16	59%	59.5%	61.1%
Jack Viney	13	48%	68.8%	72.1%
Alex Neal-Bullen	11	41%	13.3%	2.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	6	22%	13.7%	7.6%
Tom Sparrow	1	4%	36.6%	44.9%
Christian Salem	0	0%	24.5%	0.0%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	3.5%	0.7%
Trent Rivers	0	0%	2.9%	3.0%
Lachie Hunter	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	5.7%
Josh Schache			8.3%	0.0%
Koltyn Tholstrup			8.3%
Charlie Spargo			4.2%	0.0%
Bailey Laurie			1.5%	0.0%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	63	81%	82.0%	57.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	14	18%	14.2%	13.1%
Harrison Petty	1	1%	4.3%	2.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Christian Petracca	0	0%	0.0%	0.4%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.0%	0.1%
Steven May	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	9.3%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache			13.3%	4.1%
Ben Brown			0.2%	2.3%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	63	34	8	28.0%	30.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	14	4	2	31.4%	31.1%
Harrison Petty	1	0	0	35.3%	25.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0%
Christian Petracca	0	0	0		100.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0	0		20.0%
Ben Brown				100.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache				100.0%	0.0%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Rowan Marshall	64	16	6
Anthony Caminiti	13	4	0
Mitch Owens	1	0	0

[layzie 33,794]

44 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 11, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241108

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	75.3	73.2	+2.0
Kicking Efficiency	70.2	60.0	+10.2
Metres Gained	6745	6009	+736
Inside 50s	67	41	+26
Shots At Goal	29	20	+9
Shots Per Inside 50	43.3	48.8	-5.5
Contested Possessions	129	123	+6
Ground Ball Gets	70	91	-21
Intercepts	80	66	+14
Intercept Marks	19	13	+6
Centre Clearances	14	9	+5
Stoppage Clearances	20	22	-2
Contested Marks	16	8	+8
Marks Inside 50	15	12	+3
Hitouts	38	20	+18
Hitouts To Advantage	10	6	+4
Tackles	44	41	+3
Tackles Inside 50	11	4	+7
Def One On One Loss %	7.7	36.4	-28.7

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	5	4	+1
Loose Ball Get	7	6	+1
Other	10	6	+4
Total	22	16	+6
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	1	2	-1
Loose Ball Get	8	22	-14
Other	6	5	+1
Total	15	29	-14
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	13	12	+1
Loose Ball Get	39	58	-19
Other	35	22	+13
Total	87	92	-5
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	5	5	0
Loose Ball Get	13	16	-3
Other	24	10	+14
Total	42	31	+11

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Other includes contested marks, free kicks, contested knock ons, gathers from hitouts, and ruck hard ball gets.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	Rushed	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	99.2	100	2	83%	+15.8	+38	+22.2
St Kilda	83.4	62	3	17%

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	29	14.14.98	48.3%	97.2	+0.8	3.35	+0.03
St Kilda	20	9.5.59	45.0%	80.4	−21.4	4.02	−1.07
General Play
Melbourne	14	8.6.54	57.1%	44.2	+9.8	3.16	+0.70
St Kilda	7	1.3.9	14.3%	21.9	−12.9	3.13	−1.84
Set Position
Melbourne	15	6.8.44	40.0%	53.0	−9.0	3.53	−0.60
St Kilda	13	8.2.50	61.5%	58.5	−8.5	4.50	−0.65

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	171	180
2	169	155
3	192	157
4	167	146
Match	174	160

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Clayton Oliver	31	62	45.2
Alex Neal-Bullen	26	61	53.8
Jack Viney	25	59	62.7
Tom Sparrow	22	47	48.9
Kade Chandler	21	46	49.0
Kysaiah Pickett	23	46	43.2
Shane McAdam	14	33	27.5
Adam Tomlinson	14	27	22.5
Max Gawn	9	25	25.5
Lachie Hunter	13	21	21.0
Harrison Petty	9	20	28.7
Christian Petracca	9	19	34.4
Tom McDonald	10	19	23.4
Ed Langdon	9	17	30.4
Jacob van Rooyen	9	17	16.4
Caleb Windsor	8	16	31.5
Jake Bowey	9	15	13.5
Steven May	9	14	9.8
Christian Salem	9	13	27.8
Trent Rivers	7	13	22.5
Judd McVee	8	13	15.8
Bayley Fritsch	7	9	14.5
Taj Woewodin	2	2	13.2

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	68%	32%
2	44%	56%
3	49%	51%
4	57%	43%
Match	54%	46%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	1.1.7	0.0.0	+7
Centre Bounce	3.0.18	0.0.0	+18
Stoppage (Other)	2.5.17	1.2.8	+9
Turnover	8.10.58	8.6.54	+4

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	7	3.4	0	2.0
Centre Bounce	18	13.1	0	7.3
Stoppage (Other)	17	24.0	8	17.7
Turnover	58	41.7	54	43.3

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	18	13.1	0	7.3
Kick-in	D50	7	3.4	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	D50	1	1.8	0	1.6
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	2.5	1	2.4
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	8	13.5	7	8.8
Stoppage (Other)	F50	8	6.2	0	4.9
Turnover	D50	13	7.6	25	8.2
Turnover	Centre	14	7.1	12	6.1
Turnover	Wing	29	19.4	15	23.3
Turnover	F50	2	7.6	2	5.7

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	21	12.8	25	11.8
Centre	32	22.7	13	15.7
Wing	37	32.8	22	32.1
F50	10	13.8	2	10.6

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	21	12.8	25	11.8
Defensive midfield	27	19.5	25	15.9
Centre bounce	18	13.1	0	7.3
Attacking midfield	24	23.0	10	24.6
Forward 50	10	13.8	2	10.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
48	32.3	50	27.7

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	21	78%	84.2%	64.9%
Clayton Oliver	20	74%	72.0%	81.4%
Kysaiah Pickett	20	74%	32.9%	11.2%
Christian Petracca	16	59%	59.5%	61.1%
Jack Viney	13	48%	68.8%	72.1%
Alex Neal-Bullen	11	41%	13.3%	2.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	6	22%	13.7%	7.6%
Tom Sparrow	1	4%	36.6%	44.9%
Christian Salem	0	0%	24.5%	0.0%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	3.5%	0.7%
Trent Rivers	0	0%	2.9%	3.0%
Lachie Hunter	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	5.7%
Josh Schache			8.3%	0.0%
Koltyn Tholstrup			8.3%
Charlie Spargo			4.2%	0.0%
Bailey Laurie			1.5%	0.0%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	63	81%	82.0%	57.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	14	18%	14.2%	13.1%
Harrison Petty	1	1%	4.3%	2.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Christian Petracca	0	0%	0.0%	0.4%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.0%	0.1%
Steven May	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	9.3%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache			13.3%	4.1%
Ben Brown			0.2%	2.3%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	63	34	8	28.0%	30.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	14	4	2	31.4%	31.1%
Harrison Petty	1	0	0	35.3%	25.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0%
Christian Petracca	0	0	0		100.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0	0		20.0%
Ben Brown				100.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache				100.0%	0.0%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Rowan Marshall	64	16	6
Anthony Caminiti	13	4	0
Mitch Owens	1	0	0

8.10.58 from turnover with 56 points coming from turnover at wing, centre or defensive 50. Obviously could have been a lot more too. It's not always pretty at the moment but it is a sign that the new style is bearing fruit. 

70% of the scoring in this game was from turnover and most games are like this currently. Binman says it every week, it's the name of the game right now.

The inaccuracy also wasn't quite as bad as it seemed either. Most gettable set shots were nailed and at least 6 misses on pretty tight angles or beyond 50. Would have liked a few more goals obviously but no-where near the worst accuracy performance this year. 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Round 11, 2024 MCG - Demons vs Saints

Our second best Team Rating for the year behind Rnd 1 vs the Doggies (72.4) and beating our 2023 Rating (69.9) by 1%.

Our top 6 a massive 22% improvement on the 2023 average with the bottom 6 again struggling.  Somewhat of a worry given the quality of the opposition.

Big Max ...BIG game!  Since inputing data on hit outs to advantage (2022) this is easily Max's highest rated game. 

Daylight the rest.

The last time a player rated higher in a match for the red & blue was Clarry's performance in the 2022 Qualifying Final vs the Swans with a massive 7.3

Keep in mind that any mid-field or follower's player rating of 7.0+ is quite rare and indicative of an uber elite performance.  Clarry had two Ratings of 7+ in 2022.  The other was against the Kangas in Rnd 10 with a 7.67

Petracca the only other for the 2022 season in the opening round vs the Doggies with a mega 7.35

Clarry has now pretty much matched or bettered his 2023 season rating in three out of the last four games.  His only slightly off game against the Blues two weeks ago.  Fingers crossed, great signs.

Some excellent / solid results from many.  Salem in particular i believe that's his highest rating in some time.  I would love to say how long but don't have the time right at the moment to troll through the records.  His 2023 season rating is a fair indicator of where he usually falls though, so a 40% improvement from him is substantial and his best for the season.

JVR's second best outing for the year behind his Rnd 2 game against the Hawks (2.72) and a 23% improvement on season 2023.  Let's hope he can keep that going.

Tracc's performance also substantial given the heavy tag yes?

Player	Rating	Rank	2023 Season Rating	% Change vs 2023
Max Gawn	7.200	1	3.350	114.9
C Oliver	5.200	2	5.002	4.0
C Petracca	4.475	3	4.707	-4.9
S May	4.400	4	3.213	36.9
T McDonald	4.350	5	2.054	111.8
C Salem	4.225	6	2.993	41.2
A N-Bullen	3.975	7	2.532	57.0
Jack Viney	3.675	8	3.707	-0.9
A Tomlinson	3.600	9	2.912	23.6
T Rivers	3.450	10	3.696	-6.7
K Chandler	3.025	11	2.265	33.6
J Bowey	2.850	12	2.820	1.1
K Pickett	2.850	12	2.101	35.6
J McVee	2.675	14	2.320	15.3
J V Rooyen	2.675	14	2.170	23.3
T Sparrow	2.600	16	2.811	-7.5
L Hunter	2.350	17	2.939	-20.0
Ed Langdon	2.325	18	3.057	-23.9
B Fritsch	1.800	19	2.324	-22.5
S McAdam	1.350	20	-	-
C Windsor	0.950	21	-	-
H Petty < 62%	0.575	22	2.718	-78.8
T Woewodin > 17%	0.350	23	1.406	-75.1
Team Score	70.58		69.86	1.0
Top 6	29.85		24.43	22.2
Bottom 6	9.35		15.17	-38.4

< Subbed out TOG

> Subbed in TOG

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited May 27 by Demon Dynasty

[Adam The God 30,222]

Look at that -21 for ground balls stat. Crazy how that stat has become so inconsequential to how we play.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

On 22/05/2024 at 15:08, Demon Dynasty said:

That rating is from the last two years DZ.  So effectively he never dropped away, at least in this aspect anyway.

We should never forget some of the mammoth efforts from the champ over many years now to either keep us in games, nearly drag us over the line on his own back or even change the course of a match to help win them with pretty much no drop off except for a number of rounds so far this season.

And we should also remember that when Clarry is on he is at another level to most mids, even some of the greats we have come to know over the last 6 to 8 years.  There are a number that have come on in the last 18 months of course that are now matching those feats in certain matches.  And as we witnessed over the weekend, a rampaging Reid has now announced his arrival and will (most likely) be something else altogether.

Agreed DD. To the eye many can see he's not right. What does the data tell us in how much 'off' he really is. I don't know where to even look. There's the obvious raw disposals, but that is never really a great indicator. what we are looking for is his ability to impact games. He was never big on scoring involvements (from memory that was Tracs area), but his CP, defensive acts, clearances, i50s were telltale signs of his impact on games.  

The fact that taggers are going to Trac instead of Oliver is telling enough.