22 hours ago, rpfc said:

Or have only a passing interest in the draft…

This year an exception of course…

I have never been a draft pick watcher.

Until this year. 

Freo's pick four, plus our own first rounder?

 

On 7/24/2023 at 1:23 PM, Jaded No More said:

Oliver has one thing over those other mids. He has great bursting speed and he can pick the ball up off the ground at top speed. It’s why we looked so good with Kosi in the middle on Sunday. Kosi can also pick the ball up at speed and burst through. He’s no Clarry tho because he doesn’t do it 30+ times a game. 

 

On 7/24/2023 at 1:23 PM, Jaded No More said:

I think you are completely underestimating what an impact losing Oliver has had. For one it allows teams to put more time into defending the stoppage, it’s why we’ve reverted to having an extra mid at stoppages, which has seen our forward half pressure drop off as a result. 

Secondly he’s the best clearance player in the game, so we’ve dropped right back in our clearance numbers, where as we usually sit comfortably in the top 2-3 in the competition. That impacts how we play and how much harder we have to defend. 
It also meant we couldn’t play Trac forward as much as we would have liked, when we desperately needed a forward spark.

You cannot tell me that Clarry playing against GWS isn’t worth more than the 2 points we lost by. Or that Geelong dominates clearances in the last quarter like they did, if Clarry is playing. 
 

Any side that misses their best player for 3 months is going to be impacted by it. Maybe May is a bigger loss because we don’t have as many good tall defenders as we do inside mids, in terms of balance to the side, but you can never replace star power like Clarry. To say we are a better side without him is laughable. He’s a 2 time coaches award winner, a 4 time B&F winner and a 3 time AA. At 25. He is a freak. 

I think that overall you're trying to make a case for why we're missing Oliver. And if it's 'clearance' then I'm not sure it stacks up. His propensity to butcher the ball being one reason against. 

Quite clearly, we've been doing fine without him. And for every game you say 'he could have been the difference', (like the GWS game), I could name a handful where we lost what we we should have won with him playing. We beat Collingwood and Brisbane without him. So how are you equating this? 

I'm not sure how much more clear I can be. The way we play as well as the abundance of similar type mids that we have has meant we don't miss a player like him as much as a club like an Essendon would, or any other club that have fewer contested dominant mids. And thereforeeee, regardless of his unbelievable and undeniable ability to win contest, we've been okay without him. Fine in fact. And again, there's an argument to suggest we look better balanced. 

Trac and Oliver both playing full midfield minutes with Viney only amplifies our forward connect issues. Oliver and Trac are both players who consistently waste disposals. Argue all you like, but it's the simple truth. They blaze constantly as well as miss kicks they should be hitting. Everyone knows it. Maybe not Demonlanders. 

Oliver will be a welcome addition back butttt not if it's at the expense of certain players who have stepped up/providing a different blend of attributes and/or Trac being taken away from that forward role. 

Oliver's omission has brought about needed change to our mid rotation, we look better balanced, less predictable. (that includes the Gawn to Oliver predictable connection). Has led to Trac playing more forward time which has refreshed both his form and ours. 

So yeh. I think it's a gross exaggeration that we've missed him. 

I think we've been fine. 

 

Edited July 26, 20231 yr by JimmyGadson

If anything our clearence game has gotten a lot better since Oliver did his hammy. We were losing the clearence battle in the first half of the year. Remember Brisbane?

Since Oliver went down, starting from the Fremantle match, we've won the clearence game against teams 7-1 with the only game where we were beaten in all 3 facets was against freo.

Since then we've beaten all remaining teams in stoppages, centre clearence and general clearences.

Great effort without Oliver. Just shows when we are unpredictable with our set up we can certainly overcome teams with our clearence game.

Oliver will be a welcome return, but we're doing just fine without him.

Edited July 26, 20231 yr by dazzledavey36

So I assume you’d both be fine to go into finals without him then? @dazzledavey36 @JimmyGadson

I can’t believe how underrated Clarry is. Even by our own supporters. 
 

Btw, is there a player on our list you actually rate Jimmy? Because you reckon Oliver and Trac are ball butchers. Is Gawn a dud too? 

Edited July 26, 20231 yr by Jaded No More

We need Clarry back and we need him cherry ripe.

That's all. 

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

So I assume you’d both be fine to go into finals without him then? @dazzledavey36 @JimmyGadson

I can’t believe how underrated Clarry is. Even by our own supporters. 
 

Btw, is there a player on our list you actually rate Jimmy? Because you reckon Oliver and Trac are ball butchers. Is Gawn a dud too? 

No I never said that? 

You've certainly missed my point.

With Oliver missing, what this has created which we haven't been able to do for a long time due to Oliver's durability, is that we've had to look at other avenues to cover his loss which I think we've done successfully in my opinion. 

Guys like Sparrow, Jordon, Rivers and Brayshaw have had to step up and take on extra responsibilities and if you want proof that they've done a tremendous job then as I have already stated, we've beaten every team in clearences bar the Freo game where that was the start of Oliver missing through injury. 

So I have no idea where you gotten this whole ''we've dropped our numbers in clearences right back"' when it's actually the complete opposite and false.

The other point I was also trying to make was that it shows we can adapt and not fully rely on one player to carry us. We're unpredictable with our stoppage set up and I think that's a positive in itself.

Oliver coming back will be significant for us towards finals, it's the cherry on top. But it also means we don't have to completely throw him straight into the engine room and rely on him to carry the midfield brunt.

Ease him back and get him cherry ripe for September. 

5 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

No I never said that? 

You've certainly missed my point.

With Oliver missing, what this has created which we haven't been able to do for a long time due to Oliver's durability, is that we've had to look at other avenues to cover his loss which I think we've done successfully in my opinion. 

Guys like Sparrow, Jordon, Rivers and Brayshaw have had to step up and take on extra responsibilities and if you want proof that they've done a tremendous job then as I have already stated, we've beaten every team in clearences bar the Freo game where that was the start of Oliver missing through injury. 

So I have no idea where you gotten this whole ''we've dropped our numbers in clearences right back"' when it's actually the complete opposite and false.

The other point I was also trying to make was that it shows we can adapt and not fully rely on one player to carry us. We're unpredictable with our stoppage set up and I think that's a positive in itself.

Oliver coming back will be significant for us towards finals, it's the cherry on top. But it also means we don't have to completely throw him straight into the engine room and rely on him to carry the midfield brunt.

Ease him back and get him cherry ripe for September. 

It shows that our midfield is much more of a unit, possibly more so now than ever before.  I've actually been happy with Sparrow's output in recent weeks. 

When Oliver is back it is going to be deadly. 

4 minutes ago, layzie said:

It shows that our midfield is much more of a unit, possibly more so now than ever before.  I've actually been happy with Sparrow's output in recent weeks. 

When Oliver is back it is going to be deadly. 

100% 

My post was literally praising our midfield unit who have stepped up in his absence.

It's just gives us a different avenue which I think has caught teams off guard, but shows we can still beat quality teams without relying on the one player.

4 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

100% 

My post was literally praising our midfield unit who have stepped up in his absence.

It's just gives us a different avenue which I think has caught teams off guard, but shows we can still beat quality teams without relying on the one player.

All valid points but with Clarry missing & Brayshaw playing more midfield time ..I def think we’ve missed Gus’s defensive pressure in our backline . He often drops back (as in GF) & helps our backs. I think we’ll realise how much we’ve missed Clarry  when he is finally back in our team. 

2 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

All valid points but with Clarry missing & Brayshaw playing more midfield time ..I def think we’ve missed Gus’s defensive pressure in our backline . He often drops back (as in GF) & helps our backs. I think we’ll realise how much we’ve missed Clarry  when he is finally back in our team. 

I think personally think our back 6 have been fine.. 

Who you taking out from there out of Salem, Bowey and McVee/Hibberd??

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

If anything our clearence game has gotten a lot better since Oliver did his hammy. We were losing the clearence battle in the first half of the year. Remember Brisbane?

Since Oliver went down, starting from the Fremantle match, we've won the clearence game against teams 7-1 with the only game where we were beaten in all 3 facets was against freo.

Since then we've beaten all remaining teams in stoppages, centre clearence and general clearences.

Great effort without Oliver. Just shows when we are unpredictable with our set up we can certainly overcome teams with our clearence game.

Oliver will be a welcome return, but we're doing just fine without him.

But we also made a tactical change after Oliver’s last game against Port. Despite wet conditions Port had +1 at most clearances between the arcs.  Since then we have evened it up.  Maybe because the coaches felt we had no chance without Oliver.  I suspect this alone had more to do with our better clearance performance than anything else.  I hope we don’t revert when Oliver returns. 

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

So I assume you’d both be fine to go into finals without him then? @dazzledavey36 @JimmyGadson

I can’t believe how underrated Clarry is. Even by our own supporters. 
 

Btw, is there a player on our list you actually rate Jimmy? Because you reckon Oliver and Trac are ball butchers. Is Gawn a dud too? 

You're impossible to reason with because you consistently exaggerate. Everything. 

Not sure if I could have been more reasonable with my response.

The same can't be said for yours. All you hear is what you want to hear. Try and have another go. 

 

39 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

But we also made a tactical change after Oliver’s last game against Port. Despite wet conditions Port had +1 at most clearances between the arcs.  Since then we have evened it up.  Maybe because the coaches felt we had no chance without Oliver.  I suspect this alone had more to do with our better clearance performance than anything else.  I hope we don’t revert when Oliver returns. 

I dont think we have always evened up at stoppages since clarry has been out, but you're right we hardly ever did so prior and have regularly evened up since clarry has been out.

It's right to say our clearance work has been terrific since clarry had been out. And a huge positive is it has created an opportunity for Viney to go up a level and Sparrow and JJ to shine.

Incredible too that tracc has been able to play forward.

But evening up at clearances  impacts us defensively because it means we can't have the spare behind the ball.

It is a big reason why our intercept numbers have dropped off and it has also impacted our ability to stop teams scoring on transition.

And deeststar9 is spot on about Gus. Playing as a pure mid we really miss his defensive nous - in particular his ability to read the play, drop back and intercept (which is in part supported by not evening up at clearances).

And on Gus, he doesn't really have to take a defenders spot to play a defensive role.

He can just go into the rotation of the half back flankers and wingers and to a lesser extent the mids - ie rotate between those positions and the bench.

Goody has been much more tactically flexible this season. In part that has been possible because of all the work he has done with this group to cement his foundational sytems and structures. 

One less at stoppages was almost a fixed rule up till this year. The pies bring an extra, as do other teams and goody has responded by occasionally matching that, even when clarry was in the team.

It will be fascinating to see what he does at stoppages when Oliver comes back. I hope he mixes it up - sometimes even up, sometimes not and have the spare behind the ball.

Edited July 27, 20231 yr by binman

We've largely been ok without ok without Oliver because we are a rusted on contested team. Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow and even JJ are happiest at the coalface. I'd be bringing Oliver back in, sliding Petracca forward for even more minutes. I'd love to see him isolated one on one deep forward at times. As said Brayshaw goes back. Is JJ the unlucky one yet again. I'd love to see a Premiership medallion around his neck but it'll be hard if we're 100% fit. Oliver's absence has been a wonderful thing for this team but I'm pretty bloody keen to see him back now.

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

You're impossible to reason with because you consistently exaggerate. Everything. 

Not sure if I could have been more reasonable with my response.

The same can't be said for yours. All you hear is what you want to hear. Try and have another go. 

 

If you think our midfield is more balanced without Clarry then wouldn’t it be a reasonable assumption to make that you wouldn’t mind if he didn’t come back for finals? 
Or do you think that when the heat of finals is on and the game becomes more contested, we need the best clearance player in the game? 
 

Your entire argument that our midfield has done ok without him, doesn’t take into consideration that in his absence we’ve had to play an extra player in stoppages which has really impacted our ability to defend on turnover. We’ve also gone from being comfortably inside the top 4 in the competition for clearances, to sitting in 8th spot currently. 
 

There is no argument that we’ve done well to cover his loss, and very few teams could do as well as us if they lost their star midfielder for as long as we have. But your dismissal of Oliver as just a clearance player who wastes disposal is plain wrong. 
You said you don’t want him back at the expense of other players who have stepped up in his absence. So you think Gus, Viney, Kosi, Sparrow and Rivers will be lesser players with Oliver copping the attention each week instead? 
 

4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I think personally think our back 6 have been fine.. 

Who you taking out from there out of Salem, Bowey and McVee/Hibberd??

If you read my post correctly..I said we miss Brayshaw when he drops back defensively to help our backline …no mention of taking anyone out ? 

1 hour ago, Deestar9 said:

If you read my post correctly..I said we miss Brayshaw when he drops back defensively to help our backline …no mention of taking anyone out ? 

He does that regardless when he's playing as a midfielder.

20 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

If you think our midfield is more balanced without Clarry then wouldn’t it be a reasonable assumption to make that you wouldn’t mind if he didn’t come back for finals? 
Or do you think that when the heat of finals is on and the game becomes more contested, we need the best clearance player in the game? 

Your entire argument that our midfield has done ok without him, doesn’t take into consideration that in his absence we’ve had to play an extra player in stoppages which has really impacted our ability to defend on turnover. We’ve also gone from being comfortably inside the top 4 in the competition for clearances, to sitting in 8th spot currently. 
 

There is no argument that we’ve done well to cover his loss, and very few teams could do as well as us if they lost their star midfielder for as long as we have. But your dismissal of Oliver as just a clearance player who wastes disposal is plain wrong. 
You said you don’t want him back at the expense of other players who have stepped up in his absence. So you think Gus, Viney, Kosi, Sparrow and Rivers will be lesser players with Oliver copping the attention each week instead? 
 

No, it wouldn't be a reasonable assumption. Because, as I've said and will say again, he'll be a welcome addition as long as we don't spoil what we've managed to achieve in his absence.

Posters bang on about Gus being missed for his defensive work since he moved to the midfield. I'd argue that we look a lot cleaner out of the back half thanks to Gus not being there. So whilst we may miss out on some of his fantastic intercept and spoiling work, we also miss out on him butchering the footy in dangerous areas.

Everyone sees things differently. 

I think Oliver's one-touch contest work is unmatchable in the AFL. Is that clear? How many times do you want me to compliment it before believing that I rate him in that regard? But like the Gus example, I think some of that work comes undone due to his poor disposal or decision making at times and therefore dilutes his value. I don't think that can be disputed personally. Especially if you talk to football barrackers of all clubs and lovers of the game. Everyone notices it. Its the same with Petracca. For elite players, they waste the football and opportunities too often.

It's only demonlanders who kick up a fuss when things like this are said. But it's the truth. 

You seem to pick and choose your clearance argument. If I could be bothered, I'm sure I could find you a stretch of games where we have been comprehensively beaten in clearance with Oliver in the side. In fact if my memory serves me correctly it was either at the start of this year or for a big run of games last year.

Clearance has always been inconsistent for us with Oliver in or out. It's a none argument. Teams have gone to town on the Oliver-Gawn connection.

I think the only thing I could agree with is that we've done well to cover for his loss due to the abundance of strong contested players we have who roll through the middle. Viney has stepped up and assumed a role. Gus was drafted as a gun inside mid. Sparrow and Jordan are both naturally contested mids even if Jordan plays a slightly different role.

We've had no issue winning contest in the middle. Clearance? Yeh well as I said, it's always been an inconsistency with or without Oliver.

As for your last comment. It's not about those players becoming 'lesser' players when Oliver comes back. It's about what it will do to the balance and function of the side. 

I think and hope that Oliver's injury has opened Goody's eyes to new possibilities around player positions, flexibility, unpredictability, team structure and even gameplan.

Edited July 27, 20231 yr by JimmyGadson

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

No, it wouldn't be a reasonable assumption. Because, as I've said and will say again, he'll be a welcome addition as long as we don't spoil what we've managed to achieve in his absence.

Posters bang on about Gus being missed for his defensive work since he moved to the midfield. I'd argue that we look a lot cleaner out of the back half thanks to Gus not being there. So whilst we may miss out on some of his fantastic intercept and spoiling work, we also miss out on him butchering the footy in dangerous areas.

Everyone sees things differently. hamstrung 

I think Oliver's one-touch contest work is unmatchable in the AFL. Is that clear? How many times do you want me to compliment it before believing that I rate him in that regard? But like the Gus example, I think some of that work comes undone due to his poor disposal or decision making at times and therefore dilutes his value. I don't think that can be disputed personally. Especially if you talk to football barrackers of all clubs and lovers of the game. Everyone notices it. Its the same with Petracca. For elite players, they waste the football and opportunities too often.

I can dispute it. I don't agree with a lot of what David King says but agree with this "The most overrated stat and most overused stat in the history of any reporting regarding AFL footy is kicking efficiency.".

The perception of Petracca and Oliver 's kicking is set by our forward setup and plan which is risk averse and static.  Occasionally our forwards get on the move, but that's a rarity compared to Collingwood.  We constantly either dump long or take risky 50m kicks over the heads of interceptors trying to hit someone standing still or running away from the ball.  It looks terrible and gets intercepted a lot, but Stafford and Goody are the ones you should be critiquing. For Trac and Clarry the only fair comparison is to compare those kicks to everyone else trying the same kick.

Liam Crowhurst is an analyst who did that. The graph below is from another thread but compares each Melbourne players kicks with every other kick of the same type (same position, same difficulty), and what the score outcome was.  The Y axis is how difficult and risky the kick is.  The x axis is the comparison of individual players against the AFL average.  So our "ball butchers" all take kicks at the high end of the risk/reward spectrum (which I argue is due to our gameplan going i50).  They all get better outcomes than average.  Nick Daicos, who has unbelievable foot skills, sits right on the average for the types of kicks he tends to take (almost identical to Angus Brayshaw).  Considering a lot of Daicos's work is in the back half that is fine.  But when we are on the move and creating space i50, Trac and Clarry are fine and the butcher problem seems to disappear (2021 finals is a great example). 

 

This is true, Gus is like your defensive midfielder that tracks back and covers the back 4 in Soccer when they get out of position. That part of his game he does very well. 

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

 

I think and hope that Oliver's injury has opened Goody's eyes to new possibilities around player positions, flexibility, unpredictability, team structure and even gameplan.

On that we definitely agree. Silver linings and all that. 

But I think we always planned to give Kosi and Rivers more midfield minutes. Kosi played midfield in round 1 while Clarry was there. 

And we were rotating the mids far more this year than any other. Even before the Clarry injury, Goody said that is a tactic we want to use more to ensure our best mids aren’t burnt out come finals. The Clarry injury definitely exacerbated that even more. 

We also saw Gus in the middle for parts of last year. Again, the rise of Bowey, McVee, Rivers and the return to form of Salem has meant Gus is surplus in the backline. I think he played there out of pure necessity in 2022, like when he played wing in 2021 out of necessity. We are just lucky he’s good enough to cover so many roles.

IMO inside mid has always been his best role tho. He came third in the Brownlow playing that role after all. 
 

I would suggest that with Clarry back, JJ will make way but we will continue to play Gus in the guts, and give Kosi and Rivers more time through there, while Trac spends 80% of his game up forward. Not a bad outcome that 👌
 

On 24/07/2023 at 09:20, rpfc said:

I think it is a bit more counter offensive and aggressive with getting an extra to the defensive contest. We are happy to leave May one out against the best he is that good, but we won’t in the future. And I would lean into McVee and Rivers natural desire to run through HB, Salem and Bowey will still be there which is crucial if we want to quicken up the pace - they are elite kicks.

So without the footy; press with wings behind footy trying to cut off short kicks toward top of 50 mitigating Lever going full interceptor. You can do this from a stoppage too without the press.

Then with the footy; run from interception through HB line as quickly as possible. Have forwards deeper to stretch the field and create space left by the press (no one knows where anyone is on either side) for the initial kick off HB. It would be different from stoppage without the press in place of course.

Anyway, high level - lean into Lever and our HBs skill sets as opposed to May. I want opposition mids coming forward to think twice because of how hard they are going to have to work defensively immediately from turnover.

Bump. 

This is what I wrote about where we needed to go in 2024. 

After a closer than expected game against the crows. So partially bump because there are a few counting their chickens…

…but predominantly bump because I am prescient footy lord.

As ever

You’re welcome.