2022 Free Kick Differential

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,910]

18 hours ago, spalding said:

Reckon we have had a pretty good run over the last few weeks.

Is this another perk for being a good team?

we really are in a parallel universe 

In theory, the game would be in best shape if players who get the ball are more likely than not to receive a free kick (for  a push in the back, high tackle, etc) than those who are second and do the tackling. However, because of the incorrect disposal/holding the ball rule, I'm not sure that that logic stacks up. If it did, though, good teams would be more likely to be rewarded. 

[Macca 17,049]

3 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

In theory, the game would be in best shape if players who get the ball are more likely than not to receive a free kick (for  a push in the back, high tackle, etc) than those who are second and do the tackling. However, because of the incorrect disposal/holding the ball rule, I'm not sure that that logic stacks up. If it did, though, good teams would be more likely to be rewarded. 

It's not theory, it's fact

You play in front you'll receive a far greater proportion of free kicks especially if a player knows how to milk frees. Playing from behind and what are the chances? Holding the ball for a player you are tackling? 

How many frees are awarded for holding the ball? Not many so it's a bad percentage play ... especially if you are a forward

All the yelling for 'Ball' by the masses often ends the same way ... abject futility

However, backmen often play from behind or on the left or right shoulder of their opponent so as to keep an eye on their opponent (but not always these days because of the zoning) Good backmen are also adept at not giving away free kicks

And a good backmen will know when to take the front position especially against a forward who is weak playing from behind

Certainly not many decisions (holding the ball) in relation to high contact, in the back, chopping of arms and holding the man - all decisions rewarding the player in front

If one has ever played they would have been told to fight for the front position 10-15 times per week by their coaches.  So 200 games = 2000-3000 times the coaches will tell you to play in front.  It gets drummed into you for good reason

But you don't have to have played to know the value of playing in front.  Just watch the games without any anti-umpire bias

But there's no bias, umpires do the best they can in a very difficult sport to adjudicate and they don't cheat

The whole free kick count differential is a furphy. Just more numbers that doesn't tell us much exceot for the 2 outliers (and those 2 outliers are easily explained)

For instance, last season our club was overall -16 free kicks for the season proper.  That's less than 1 free kick per game

What does it matter?

 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Macca

[Deedubs 157]

Guys like Spargo, Pickett, Bowey etc. are starting to flail a bit and earn those frees. We've definitely had a good run.  I felt that at the beginning of last season our players weren't really playing for anything and that hurt us. Even in that game against Adelaide when the Adelaide clearly hit the ball out of bounds deliberately in the last 10 seconds and not a single dees player appealed for a free. That cost us 4 points. Yes, it was one of the worst non- decisions of 2021 but you've got to make it easy for the umpire to blow the whistle. 

[Macca 17,049]

2 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Guys like Spargo, Pickett, Bowey etc. are starting to flail a bit and earn those frees. We've definitely had a good run.  I felt that at the beginning of last season our players weren't really playing for anything and that hurt us. Even in that game against Adelaide when the Adelaide clearly hit the ball out of bounds deliberately in the last 10 seconds and not a single dees player appealed for a free. That cost us 4 points. Yes, it was one of the worst non- decisions of 2021 but you've got to make it easy for the umpire to blow the whistle. 

Not forgetting that the team put in a 4 out of 10 performance that day against Adelaide (a much bigger factor for the loss, obviously)

We had 1 standout player that day - Oliver

Daylight to our 2nd best player

A footy match goes a lot longer than just the last minute of play

So we didn't turn up and that was the main reason why we lost against the Crows

[Deedubs 157]

55 minutes ago, Macca said:

Not forgetting that the team put in a 4 out of 10 performance that day against Adelaide (a much bigger factor for the loss, obviously)

We had 1 standout player that day - Oliver

Daylight to our 2nd best player

A footy match goes a lot longer than just the last minute of play

So we didn't turn up and that was the main reason why we lost against the Crows

Yeah it's true. it's hard not to focus on the last moments. Like when Geelong played Sydney and a 22m kick to Cameron was called not 15. 

But I agree, we shouldn't be leaving any games to chance. It's too risky in todays game of inconsistent umpiring. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Deedubs

[Macca 17,049]

3 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Yeah it's true. it's hard not to focus on the last moments. Like when Geelong played Sydney and a 22m kick to Cameron was called not 15. 

But I agree, we shouldn't be leaving any games to chance. It's too risky in todays game of inconsistent umpiring. 

It's actually quite easy for me to not focus on the last moments of footy games

At half time (amongst Demon mates) I've been known to point out the lucky free kicks that we've received and the free kicks the opposition should have received!

Doesn't go down well and I'd never do it on the game-day thread here!! haha

[Wodjathefirst 2,653]

On 4/23/2022 at 8:59 PM, ding said:

In an interview on SEN Breakfast, Weightman admitted he has the ability to win free kicks, but believes that is part of his on-field repertoire and he is not breaking any rules.

“I think I do have an ability to draw free kicks and I think that’s a skillset rather than a flop or whatever you call that," Weightman said.

Weightman obviously comes from a soccer background, and if not, he should seriously consider changing codes. 

[Macca 17,049]

2 hours ago, Deedubs said:

It's too risky in todays game of inconsistent umpiring. 

The umpiring has always been inconsistent and probably always will be

We are asking people to differentiate free kicks in a sport full of grey areas ... stands to reason that umpiring mistakes will eventuate and those decisions won't be consistent

Our team is so good that a few questionable umpiring decisions matters not

And because we are so good, we are able to win more frees as a default outcome

*Play in front, win more frees*

By the way, there are not many top players who don't play in front.  In fact, I can't think of 1 top player who consistently plays from behind

Edited May 11, 2022 by Macca

[mauriesy 7,359]

Interesting that our free kicks are 105-106 in home matches, but 72-57 in away matches. We've got the best away free kick percentage (126.32%) out of any team (Bulldogs 2nd with 119.77%).

[mauriesy 7,359]

2 hours ago, Deedubs said:

Guys like Spargo, Pickett, Bowey etc. are starting to flail a bit and earn those frees.

Pickett's career free kicks are 29-53. He gives away nearly twice what he gets.

[Macca 17,049]

3 minutes ago, mauriesy said:

Interesting that our free kicks are 105-106 in home matches, but 72-57 in away matches. We've got the best away free kick percentage (126.32%) out of any team (Bulldogs 2nd with 119.77%).

So does that mean that we are being deliberately favoured by the umps?

[Willmoy1947 4,152]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

It's not theory, it's fact

You play in front you'll receive a far greater proportion of free kicks especially if a player knows how to milk frees. Playing from behind and what are the chances? Holding the ball for a player you are tackling? 

How many frees are awarded for holding the ball? Not many so it's a bad percentage play ... especially if you are a forward

All the yelling for 'Ball' by the masses often ends the same way ... abject futility

However, backmen often play from behind or on the left or right shoulder of their opponent so as to keep an eye on their opponent (but not always these days because of the zoning) Good backmen are also adept at not giving away free kicks

And a good backmen will know when to take the front position especially against a forward who is weak playing from behind

Certainly not many decisions (holding the ball) in relation to high contact, in the back, chopping of arms and holding the man - all decisions rewarding the player in front

If one has ever played they would have been told to fight for the front position 10-15 times per week by their coaches.  So 200 games = 2000-3000 times the coaches will tell you to play in front.  It gets drummed into you for good reason

But you don't have to have played to know the value of playing in front.  Just watch the games without any anti-umpire bias

But there's no bias, umpires do the best they can in a very difficult sport to adjudicate and they don't cheat

The whole free kick count differential is a furphy. Just more numbers that doesn't tell us much exceot for the 2 outliers (and those 2 outliers are easily explained)

For instance, last season our club was overall -16 free kicks for the season proper.  That's less than 1 free kick per game

What does it matter?

 

Just one small point it's not the number, it's when they are given, it's the consistency from week to week and rule emphasis to rule obscurity.

[Deedubs 157]

16 minutes ago, mauriesy said:

Pickett's career free kicks are 29-53. He gives away nearly twice what he gets.

Are you saying Pickett doesn't throw his head back or lead with the head? Please, he's one of the worst at that. Not that I mind too much, but he does.

[daisycutter 29,756]

2 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Are you saying Pickett doesn't throw his head back or lead with the head? Please, he's one of the worst at that. Not that I mind too much, but he does.

as long as he's not dropping his head INTO an opponent, but lowering his body to EVADE an opponent, i'm ok with it

there's a big difference between into and away from

it's not his job to make it easy for the tackler. evasion is his strong point and he's entitled to max it. 

[Deedubs 157]

20 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

as long as he's not dropping his head INTO an opponent, but lowering his body to EVADE an opponent, i'm ok with it

there's a big difference between into and away from

it's not his job to make it easy for the tackler. evasion is his strong point and he's entitled to max it. 

I respectfully disagree. You call it evading, I call it milking. He milks frees. Weightman is much worse and I hate the way he plays. As good as Pickett is, he makes the easy seem difficult sometimes. Often trying to goose-step an opponent three times before getting past him. Dude, just fake one way and go the other. 

[Macca 17,049]

29 minutes ago, willmoy said:

Just one small point it's not the number, it's when they are given, it's the consistency from week to week and rule emphasis to rule obscurity.

And I've never had an issue as to when free kicks are given either ... or whereabouts on the ground either

Games are decided by skill levels and good coaching

When we were poor ar both those areas we rarely won ... now that we are excellent in both areas, we rarely lose

[Demonstone 22,969]

7 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Weightman is much worse and I hate the way he plays.

You'd probably appreciate this image of him breaking his collarbone last week.

 

[Lucifers Hero 40,375]

37 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

You'd probably appreciate this image of him breaking his collarbone last week.

 

I really felt sorry for him with that bump.  A bit like I did in the GF when he leapt over Hibberd and his head hit the post and then it hit the ground when he fell to earth.   I was worried for him having just come out of concussion protocols. 

While I don't like the way he (or anyone) plays for frees it is never good to see someone hurt.

He is such a courageous kid.  Hope he is back playing soon.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[sue 9,146]

50 minutes ago, Macca said:

And I've never had an issue as to when free kicks are given either ... or whereabouts on the ground either

Games are decided by skill levels and good coaching

When we were poor ar both those areas we rarely won ... now that we are excellent in both areas, we rarely lose

If only you would insert the word 'usually' or 'almost always' before 'decided' I'd agree with you.     Close games are also sometimes decided by a lucky bounce as well even if the sides are equal in skills and coaching. 

As for supporters whinging about umpire's decisions, I've noticed little difference between supporters of good sides and bottom sides. People enjoy the whinge.   We understand you don't.

[Demonstone 22,969]

23 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I really felt sorry for him with that bump.

He chose to bump the player with the ball and came off second best.  No sympathy from me.

[Willmoy1947 4,152]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

And I've never had an issue as to when free kicks are given either ... or whereabouts on the ground either

Games are decided by skill levels and good coaching

When we were poor ar both those areas we rarely won ... now that we are excellent in both areas, we rarely lose

Well I don't agree. I'm not only referring to our games but all games. There are a host of retribution frees and frees done on whims and think it happened frees every week. Footscray get a myriad of frees winning or losing.

[Macca 17,049]

1 hour ago, sue said:

People enjoy the whinge.   We understand you don't.

The 'We' evaluation?  Do you talk on behalf of everyone on this site? 

Is it a rule that everyone here is supposed to moan about umpiring decisions?

"People enjoy the whinge"

Ha ha!

 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Macca

[Willmoy1947 4,152]

Umpiring is an inconclusive science based on negligible human error, or the fraternity would like to think so...

[Macca 17,049]

1 hour ago, willmoy said:

Well I don't agree. I'm not only referring to our games but all games. There are a host of retribution frees and frees done on whims and think it happened frees every week. Footscray get a myriad of frees winning or losing.

We are polar opposites on this issue, willmoy

I put my views forward on umpiring in order to perhaps influence 10% - 15% of this site

Did the same with the drafting debate ... now there is barely a person here who doesn't admit that the draft is at least somewhat flawed

Beforehand there was a belief system (shared by many) that the drafting numbering system was entirely accurate

So in that area, my work is done. 

In summary, I see the constant questioning of umpiring decisions as sweating the small stuff

There are many who probably believe that umpires have a huge influence on games ...buy by my reckoning it's less than 5% (influence of umpires)

So why not take in the other side of the argument?

After all, I've been hearing your side of the argument for my entire life.  Along with 1000's of others all saying the same thing.  Over and over and over again

On nearly every one of your posts you find a way to complain about umpires

Where's your footy anslysis?  I've never seen it

Edited May 11, 2022 by Macca

[sue 9,146]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

The 'We' evaluation?  Do you talk on behalf of everyone on this site? 

Is it a rule that everyone here is supposed to moan about umpiring decisions?

"People enjoy the whinge"

Ha ha ha ha ha!

 

Though I don't claim to speak on behalf of anyone, I did indeed mean 'we' without I think being presumptous.  Anyone who has followed this issue will know what your position is - you repeat it regularly (as is your right).    

I'm glad you enjoyed my comment about people's enjoyment though I'm not sure why it deserved so many ha ha's.