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Annual Prognostications Useless?

Demon17
in Melbourne Demons

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Its always interesting to read the 'pundits' tips at the start of each season on the final ladder placings. For example, today's Age has their 8 experts largely tipping only 1 change to the final 8 from last season.

History tells us the avaregae churn of the final 8 each year is 2.7 ish from the previous season.

So theyr'e all wrong. A bit like economists at the Reserve Bank.

Happily, three of them have the Dees as finalists. So given their statistical errors in the forecasts, there's plenty of room for a Dees top 8 finish in reality.

Or is there?

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    Not convinced about the 8.

    The club has done a stellar job in fixing our backline and did well to get brown.

    The problem for me is the large number of players who simply dont add a great deal or never seem to improve.

    One way or another this will be a telling time for the club and coach.

    Go Dees.

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    • Like 1
    7 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    Its always interesting to read the 'pundits' tips at the start of each season on the final ladder placings. For example, today's Age has their 8 experts largely tipping only 1 change to the final 8 from last season.

    History tells us the avaregae churn of the final 8 each year is 2.7 ish from the previous season.

    So theyr'e all wrong. A bit like economists at the Reserve Bank.

    Happily, three of them have the Dees as finalists. So given their statistical errors in the forecasts, there's plenty of room for a Dees top 8 finish in reality.

    Or is there?

    And as per usual. Lyon has his tongue implanted firmly into the backside that is Eddie McGuire's clubs A Noose!

    How you could have the Pies in the 8 is beyond me! Also I can't see Brisbane making top 4 if they have to travel outside Brisabne. They showed at the start of last year the can't play at the G Rd1 when the hawks beat them!

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    50 minutes ago, Doug Reemer said:

    And as per usual. Lyon has his tongue implanted firmly into the backside that is Eddie McGuire's clubs A Noose!

    How you could have the Pies in the 8 is beyond me! Also I can't see Brisbane making top 4 if they have to travel outside Brisabne. They showed at the start of last year the can't play at the G Rd1 when the hawks beat them!

    So many predictions are based on not wanting to upset mates, whatever happened last year or who is the hype team. Just mainly done for the clicks really.

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    • Like 1

    Short answer..yes

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    • Demonland changed the title to Annual Prognostications Useless?

    Just BS especially at this time of year..

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    Who cares what the muppets at The Age, Herald Sun, Afl.com etc etc think about footy.

    The average drunkard sitting in the stands would give you a better season preview.   Must be the easiest gig in the word being a footy writer.

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    1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

    So many predictions are based on not wanting to upset mates, whatever happened last year or who is the hype team. Just mainly done for the clicks really.

    I agree. We had a percentage of 107 last year. which was well ahead of the teams below us. So if we can play top that same standard until ben brown and weid come in we should be fine.

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    Most commentators are boringly conservative just recycle last years top 8 with maybe 1 change...but no one really knows I still remember going into 2017 a lot of "experts" had Richmond in the bottom 6

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    I don't see any problem with people predicting we won't make the top eight.  Based on the last two seasons it's perfectly reasonable. 

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    On 3/15/2021 at 8:19 AM, Demon17 said:

    Its always interesting to read the 'pundits' tips at the start of each season on the final ladder placings. For example, today's Age has their 8 experts largely tipping only 1 change to the final 8 from last season.

    History tells us the avaregae churn of the final 8 each year is 2.7 ish from the previous season.

    So theyr'e all wrong. A bit like economists at the Reserve Bank.

    Happily, three of them have the Dees as finalists. So given their statistical errors in the forecasts, there's plenty of room for a Dees top 8 finish in reality.

    Or is there?

    If the changeover is 2.7ish from the previous season, then the non-changeover is 5.3ish. Hence, a team in the final eight the previous year is almost twice as likely to be in the eight the next year than fall out of it. If I'm predicting for a living, as are these 'pundits', I'm picking last year's eight to all make it as the mathematical odds favour that outcome above any other option.

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    • Like 1
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    2 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    If the changeover is 2.7ish from the previous season, then the non-changeover is 5.3ish. Hence, a team in the final eight the previous year is almost twice as likely to be in the eight the next year than fall out of it. If I'm predicting for a living, as are these 'pundits', I'm picking last year's eight to all make it as the mathematical odds favour that outcome above any other option.

    Good point LDVC. Except that the chances of them being correct on the final 8 are largely zero.

    Thus the irrelevancy of it all anyway.

     

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