Stats Files - 2020

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

G'day fellow minions.  Well it's been the most unusual start to any season i can ever recall and much of the time the true tale of the what and the how, in terms of individual & team performance, is best left to the coaches, experts and what we see with the naked eye on the field.  But there's no harm in throwing in a few stats, useless or otherwise, as a bit of a sideshow / discussion point is there?

Ok, feel free to commence rant against how useless stats are....here ?  Not that some of you will need much encouraging!   And no i'm not advocating that stats in any way (on there own) are an  appropriate indicator of performance.  But when linked to the watching of a game in full they can sometimes act as a slight guide in either a plausible trend and/or a stand out performance / underperformance by both individuals and/or or the team as a whole.  Emphasis on sometimes.  In most cases not so, but no harm in taking a look provided we keep stats in context of their limited capability of telling the full and true story.  In the end they can't and don't, as so much more happens on the field of play it would be folly to think otherwise. 

Anyway here's a bit of a belated update from Rnd 1.  As you will see below, the team performance vs West Coast looks to have dropped off a cliff vs the 2019 average (which was 59.623), by 25%.  On the surface that would appear to be extremely alarming given the wonderful year that was 2019!  But after adjusting for the reduction in time played, post CV19, that 25% drop off is actually only 5%.  But then again...any drop off from 2019 is actually bloody alarming surely!  The counter argument is, one match result is not an average so we need to wait at least 6 to 8 rounds before we hit the panic button.  However, it's something i'll be looking into as the season progresses and i'll try to update as soon as i can after each match.

Player / Team Score - Round 1 vs West Coast Eagles (Optus Stadium)

Player	Score	Rank
Jack Viney	5.625	1
Jay Lockhart	3.575	2
Clayton Oliver	3.250	3
James Harmes	3.100	4
Max Gawn #	2.950	5
Ed Langdon	2.925	6
Christian Petracca	2.800	7
Angus Brayshaw	2.325	8
Alex N-Bullen	2.050	9
Oscar McDonald	2.000	10
Jake Lever	1.850	11
Jake Melksham	1.700	12
Steven May	1.575	13
Tom McDonald #	1.450	14
Michael Hibberd	1.300	15
Kysaiah Pickett	1.300	16
Adam Tomlinson	1.250	17
Neville Jetta	1.200	18
Toby Bedford	1.150	19
Bayley Fritsch	0.900	20
Mitchell Brown	0.625	21
Charlie Spargo	-0.250	22
Team Score	44.650
Top 6	21.425
Bottom 6	4.875
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Rnd 2 to follow shortly....

Edited June 15, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Player / Team Score - Round 2 vs Carlton Blues (Marvel Stadium)

Player	Score	Rank
Max Gawn #	5.325	1
Christian Petracca	4.400	2
Clayton Oliver	3.775	3
Jack Viney	2.825	4
Alex N-Bullen	2.625	5
Neville Jetta	2.375	6
Angus Brayshaw	2.350	7
Christian Salem	2.350	7
Adam Tomlinson	2.325	9
Harley Bennell	2.250	10
James Harmes	2.075	11
Ed Langdon	2.000	12
Steven May	1.875	13
Tom McDonald	1.600	14
Trent Rivers	1.550	15
Jake Lever	1.500	16
Jayden Hunt	1.475	17
Nathan Jones	1.475	17
Joel Smith	1.450	19
Bayley Fritsch	1.275	20
Jake Melksham	1.050	21
Luke Jackson	0.250	22
Team Score	48.175
Top 6	21.325
Bottom 6	6.975
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

 

Even without adding hit outs to advantage to Big M's stats he was, statistically at least, clearly the No.1 player on the evening for the Demons.

A promising return by Harley as well, finishing in the top 10.  Even more impressive given that he only spent half the match on the park.

Gus the next lowest time on ground with 69%.  Carrying  some sort of niggle?  Maybe not but if so that's a fairly low time on ground?

Taking the 20% time reduction into account, this is a very marginal improvement on the 2019 average team score of 59.623.  Approx a 0.8% improvement so nothing to really get excited about so far this season in a team sense (statistically).

Edited June 16, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[grazman 7,432]

Good work RN.  I don't know where one would find the pressure rating data, but it was mentioned on the coverage that our pressure rating was over 200 for the first quarter, which only happened once in 2019 and was a large reason we went 42 points up.  The second quarter it was mentioned we'd dropped back to 160.  No mention what the third and fourth quarters were, but I imagine they were probably even lower.  We clearly need to improve on our consistent application of defensive pressure. 

I noticed the TOG by Gus as well, but another possible explanation is that they maybe managing the midfield loads after the extended lay off and it was Gus who got more bench time - so it will be interesting to see what his TOG next week is.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

19 hours ago, grazman said:

Good work RN.  I don't know where one would find the pressure rating data, but it was mentioned on the coverage that our pressure rating was over 200 for the first quarter, which only happened once in 2019 and was a large reason we went 42 points up.  The second quarter it was mentioned we'd dropped back to 160.  No mention what the third and fourth quarters were, but I imagine they were probably even lower.  We clearly need to improve on our consistent application of defensive pressure. 

I noticed the TOG by Gus as well, but another possible explanation is that they maybe managing the midfield loads after the extended lay off and it was Gus who got more bench time - so it will be interesting to see what his TOG next week is.

Cheers graz. That first quarter was pretty up there pressure wise as you say.  I heard somewhere it was the 2nd highest rating ever or for quite some time maybe?  Unlikely that can be maintained over 4 quarters of course but as you say we probably are a fair way off full match fitness in these first few matches.  Can't recall the second half numbers on this but the result is an indicator that it probably dropped off significantly again from the 2nd quarter level you quoted.

I still don't understand playing Harmes in the backline effectively leaving us a rotation short in the middle but the coaches are getting paid the big $ and in reality i have no idea why they are doing things the way they do them from the bleaches.  I certainly preferred this sort of start than the usual coming from behind routine over the last 8 years or more.  Much easier to defend a big lead than try and catch one i reckon.

We are fielding a pretty inexperienced team at this stage.  Not so much against the Blues but very evident in that first round where the average number of games differential was -43 vs the Eagles.  Their top end experience (100+ gamers) was sitting at 14 and we were on 8.  A differential of 6 players with that experience level is pretty massive.

Against the Blues however, we were on average 1 year younger and -7 games down in experience but that difference is so negligible it would have played no part in the outcome imv.

Would like to see Lockhardt come in for Smith this week which will free up Harmes into the middle and assist the rotations > our ability to match the opp in the middle for longer and hopefully beat them on the day.  Always a critical factor in any match.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Player	Score	Rank
Angus Brayshaw	3.300	1
Max Gawn #	3.225	2
Clayton Oliver	2.875	3
James Harmes	2.825	4
Ed Langdon	2.425	5
Adam Tomlinson	2.225	6
Jack Viney	2.200	7
Michael Hibberd	2.150	8
Mitchell Hannan	1.725	9
Jake Lever	1.700	10
Christian Petracca	1.675	11
Steven May	1.525	12
Joel Smith	1.525	13
Tom McDonald	1.425	14
Christian Salem	1.275	15
Aaron Vandenberg	1.025	16
Jay Lockhart	1.000	17
Bayley Fritsch	0.975	18
Kysaiah Pickett	0.950	19
Jayden Hunt	0.850	20
Trent Rivers	0.500	21
Jake Melksham	-0.325	22
Team Score	37.050
Top 6	16.875
Bottom 6	3.950
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Ok not exactly a game for the ages and certainly as poor an effort as i've seen from this club, aside from a few individual efforts, for some time.  That team score!   Let's not try and chocolate coat this.  Even after accounting for 20% less game time vs 2019, the team's performance today was.....wait for it.... statistically 17.8% worse than the drivel we produced in 2019.  The 2019 season average team score was 59.623.  Compare that to 2018 which was 69.528  This team performance was 26.7% below that season's average (yes accounting for the 20% less game time in 2020)!

Individually, only two players scored above 3.  The only game that's come close to that was our Rnd 21 match vs the Pies last season where we only had three players score above 3.  The worst result since i started tallying these stats in 2018.

A couple of other horrors....

AFL DE% averages roughly 73%.  We were at 62% for the match.

The bottom 5 disposers of the ball (accuracy wise).....

Melksham @ 27.3% with only 3 effectives

Lockhart @ 37.5% with 3

Hunt @ 40% with 2.  Fritsch ditto.

Tracc @ 50% with 9.

The top 5 most accurate disposers...

Langdon @ 87.5% with 14 effectives.

Smith @ 83.3% with 5

Hibb @ 81.8% with 9

Harmes @ 77.8 with 14 (i must have been watching a different player....didn't see half of those and thought he was average at best!)

Gawn @ 76.50 with 13.  Not bad from the big fella.

The most meters gained (FWIW)

Tomlinson with 503.  Next was Viney with 433

On the reverse .... Vanders with 45 and Smith with 55

The top two intercept players

Rivers with 6!  Great work son, albeit offset below a little unfortunately.  Equal 2nd Gawn, Gus & Lever with 5 a piece.

Top five turnover kings

Rivers with 7.  Equal 2nd Clarry, Melk & Viney with 6.  Kozzy in 5th place with 5 but a nice game from the kid nonetheless.

Heading the clearance count

Clarry with 7 and Viney with 5. 

Not one player racked up more than 1 contested mark for the entire match!

Edited June 28, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

Wow, Rusty.  That is a terrible indictment on the club. The inability to close off the kick to kick keepings off was poor.  The scores above are appalling, and the follow on stats Paint the real picture.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

12 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow, Rusty.  That is a terrible indictment on the club. The inability to close off the kick to kick keepings off was poor.  The scores above are appalling, and the follow on stats Paint the real picture.

Yes my footy strategy knowledge is limited but i have to agree Buck, what is this method / strat where we start protecting space inside our 50 and up to the centre early in a match?  Would much rather see one on one early in a match to try and force the turnovers in the most dangerous parts of the ground and improve our chances of putting a decent score / lead on the board early off the turnover.

Under Goodwin's strat yesterday It felt like we were conceding the match early and just looking to limit the damage.  This against a very ordinary / sluggish (by foot...in general) Cats line up who IMHO we could have cracked open by half time had we brought the heat on early AND obviously taken our chances and converted.

The method we saw yesterday was always going to see us chasing a score as we allowed the Cats so much room off HB to control tempo and momentum and most importantly, work their way with ease to very dangerous launching spots nearing our 50 time and time again until they had built up a very handy lead.  And in hindsight a winning lead.

I thought our backline held up very well and can hold their heads up high given the awful way we played this out defensively in the forward half.  And it's not like this was a one off.  Goody has pulled this horribilis on a number of occasions, one of which was another absolute shocker result vs an out of form Tigers last year in Rnd 6, 2019.  Very similar "Conceding the front half" / Protect Space strat.  Funnily enough that was our worst team score in 2019 at 41.825  Only slightly above yesterday's result!  Although one could argue the Tiger's match was worse as we played 20% more game time meaning the 41 figure is inflated vs yesterday's 37.

I would argue, playing that style of football in the first half of a match is pretty much a losing strat against almost any team other than maybe the bottom 4.  It's no surprise we are one of those bottom 4 at present (ok we are one match behind others but we aren't exactly in a strong position no matter which way you slice it).

Edited June 29, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Player	Score	Rank
Christian Petracca	4.475	1
Steven May	3.700	2
Clayton Oliver	3.325	3
James Harmes	3.200	4
Michael Hibberd	3.175	5
Max Gawn #	3.075	6
Aaron Vandenberg	3.075	7
Christian Salem	2.975	8
Mitchell Hannan	2.450	9
Ed Langdon	2.200	10
Jay Lockhart	2.100	11
Tom McDonald	2.075	12
Angus Brayshaw	1.850	13
Jake Lever	1.725	14
Bayley Fritsch	1.450	15
Trent Rivers	1.050	16
Jack Viney	0.700	17
Adam Tomlinson #	0.650	18
Jake Melksham	0.600	19
Kysaiah Pickett	0.575	20
Joel Smith	0.500	21
Jayden Hunt	0.250	22
Team Score	45.175
Top 6	20.950
Bottom 6	3.275
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Team score was our 2nd best for the season but believe it or not, still a horrid 4% worse than the average team score from the debacle that was 2019.

Note that Gawn's hit outs to advantage are not included above and my best guess is if they were he would have finished in the top 3, probably 2nd.  Clarry was marked down badly in the above score from 5 turnovers but he wasn't the worst here.  Viney with a massive 8 and Fritschkreig with 6 headed the table.  Clarry equal 3rd along with Tomo, Smith, Gawn and Hibb.  Those turnover stats don't show where they occurred or whether they resulted directly in a score though.  I suspect if they drilled down to this level Clarry would be marked down a tad further.

A better start matching the Tigers in the first, but unfortunately as we've seen all too often, once the opp turns up the wick a little or a fair amount our skills and composure tend to collapse almost on cue with a few exceptions.  Surprise surprise we end up well behind at half time, again!  And once more, chasing tail for the remainder of the match.  Even with virtually no bench in the last it was pretty clear to me (and no doubt most) that only one team was likely to win this one.

Maxy, Tracc & Hibb played pretty solid throughout.  Clarry did his usual extraction work but much of it brought undone with some fairly ordinary disposal and panic handball / kicks into neutral territory or straight to the opp on a few too many occasions.  Not to mention that last kick of 5 meters or so that resulted directly in a goal.

Then there's the ex captain.  What can one say.  Pretty solid at getting the pill, similar to Clarry, but those turnovers ughh!  Who would've thought Jack would put in a bottom 6 result statistically in any match other than when returning from a decent lay off / injury.

Gus had a go but not that far behind in terms of ability to impact / halve a contest.  We are really lacking some zip, agility and break away soft shoe shuffle from any of our mids at the moment by hand and/or foot, with the exception of Harmes in that 2nd half who i thought gave us a tad more run and forward momentum / impact through the square.

Then there's our immaculate forward line.  Apart from a handy haul by Hannan, there's not much to write home about in terms of results on the scoreboard or ability to retain the ball inside 50 for more than a few seconds once the ball hits the turf.  Front and square?  Is that even in the coach's playbook?  If it is no one appears to be listening or attempting to position themselves there other than the opposition.

The other bottom 5 statistically were Hunt, Smith, Kozzie, Melk and Tomo.  Kozzie i'll happily forgive at this early stage.  He'll get there given enough time, games and a decent structure / genuine KF inclusion up forward (hopefully!).  As for the other four.  A little like our season so far, sometimes the less said the better!

Edited July 5, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Ok only 4 rounds in and we finally have a few averages to work off.  Normally wouldn't post averages till about Rnd 6 when some substantial data is in but hey, everything about this season is topsy turvy and it's effectively shortened by 20% so may as well have an early look.  When you are looking at differentials in averages vs 2019 make sure to add 20% to the 2020 difference for a more realistic number.

In a team sense this adjustment means our top 22 (when playing) are actually 3.6% ahead of the 2019 average.  Marginal but any positive is worth noting.  Is this the start of some sort of recovery?  Most likely too early to call is my best guess.  Another 3 matches or so should give us a better idea as to how we are tracking vs 2019.

  # Hit outs to advantage not included   *Not an average only one match played

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Max Gawn #	3.644	1	3.256	11.92	4	3
Christian Petracca	3.338	2	2.616	27.60	10	8
Clayton Oliver	3.306	3	4.643	-28.80	1	-2
Jack Viney	2.838	4	3.068	-7.50	5	1
James Harmes	2.800	5	3.850	-27.27	2	-3
Angus Brayshaw	2.456	6	2.894	-15.13	6	0
Ed Langdon	2.388	7	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	2.338	8	1.984	17.82	21	13
Harley Bennell *	2.250	9	-	-	-	-
Jay Lockhart	2.225	10	1.660	34.04	31	21
Michael Hibberd	2.208	11	2.124	3.95	20	9
Christian Salem	2.200	12	3.448	-36.19	3	-9
Steven May	2.169	13	2.446	-11.32	14	1
Mitchell Hannan	2.088	14	1.325	57.58	36	22
Aaron Vandenburg	2.050	15	-	-	-	-
Oscar McDonald *	2.000	16	1.877	6.55	26	10
Neville Jetta	1.788	17	2.264	-21.05	18	1
Jake Lever	1.694	18	2.313	-26.76	17	-1
Tom McDonald #	1.638	19	2.150	-23.81	19	0
Adam Tomlinson #	1.613	20	-	-	-	-
Nathan Jones *	1.475	21	2.711	-45.59	8	-13
Joel Smith	1.158	22	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.150	23	-	-	-	-
Bayley Fritsch	1.150	24	2.641	-56.46	9	-15
Trent Rivers	1.033	25	-	-	-	-
Kysaiah Pickett	0.942	26	-	-	-	-
Jayden Hunt	0.858	27	1.958	-56.18	22	-5
Jake Melksham	0.756	28	1.931	-60.85	23	-5
Mitchell Brown *	0.625	29	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson *	0.250	30	-	-	-	-
Charlie Spargo *	-0.250	31	1.375	-118.18	23	-8
Average Team Score -Top 22	49.663		59.623	-16.70

Edited July 6, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Ok i don't normally run the weighted score ratings for the opposition as i usually don't have the time but hey, this is 2020 and not exactly going out and about as often right now.  And less so from 11.59pm tonight (well done Dan et al!).

So first up is the out of form Tigers from Sunday's Rnd 5 match at the G.

Their team score was 11.2% up on ours and the other notable difference was their bottom 6 score, a massive 86% increase in output vs our bottom 6.  The bottom 6 often regarded as the difference on the day.  This may have played a significant part along with their top 3 scoring players outstripping our top 3 significantly.  However their next group, from Bachar at no.4 down to Martin, drops away significantly in comparison to ours only recouping some of those losses from about Martin down (their bottom 7 to be exact).

Player	Score	Rank
Kane Lambert	5.375	1
Jack Higgins	4.075	2
Josh Caddy	4.000	3
Bachar Houli	2.850	4
Jayden Short	2.625	5
Nathan Broad	2.550	6
Shane Edwards	2.525	7
Dion Prestia	2.525	8
Mabior Chol #	2.200	9
Trent Cotchin	2.150	10
Dylan Grimes	2.150	11
Toby Nankervis #	1.925	12
Jake Aarts	1.900	13
Noah Balta	1.900	14
Daniel Rioli	1.800	15
Dustin Martin	1.775	16
Liam Baker	1.650	17
Tom Lynch	1.625	18
Jack Riewoldt #	1.575	19
Jason Castagna	1.500	20
Nick Vlastuin	1.425	21
Kamdyn Mcintosh	0.450	22
Team Score	50.550
Top 6	21.475
Bottom 6	8.225
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

Maybe look at team stats for scoring. 

Inside 50 conversions.  Goals/Inside 50s. 
Dees 18th  16%. 
(7/45  8/40 6/46 8/43)

a ratio of 25-30% is what is expected 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Is there anyway of getting games played together stats?

Lever, May, Langdon, Tomlinson and Kossie have barely played with each other.

Cohesion wins premierships but if you don't have the cattle on the field you need to try and trade talent in. It's a fine line.

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Maybe look at team stats for scoring. 

Inside 50 conversions.  Goals/Inside 50s. 
Dees 18th  16%. 
(7/45  8/40 6/46 8/43)

a ratio of 25-30% is what is expected 

Sorry also 

disposals per goal - Dees 18th

kicking efficiency deferential - Dees 18th

forget the gym. Hit the paddock and spend 2 hours kicking the footy at pace or under pressure. Not just kick to kick. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Not a convincing win over the Suns by any means.  Nonetheless, a solid steady win which i'll take any day over the rubbish we've dished up in the last season and a bit.

If we believe the "Stats Insider" article from 25 June 2019 these three stats are the "real performance indicators"of the AFL stats world...

? Meters Gained Differential - Believe it or not this stat has the strongest correlation with success since it's induction.  Extract from that article ...  "From 2015 to 2018 there were 21 cases of a team achieving a 200+ meters gained differential over the course of the season.  20 of those 21 teams made AFL finals".

? Marks inside 50 differential - According to the article "Just three of the last 18 GF teams have been ranked outside of the league's top six for marks inside 50 differential".

? Contested Possession Differential - Again from this article... "Since 2010, we have 11 examples of teams who achieved a 10+ contested possession differential average over the course of a season.  Nine of those teams found themselves playing on Prelim Final weekend".

So i'll be tracking how we went in each of these three differentials each week vs our opponents from here along with the usual individual and team weighted average scores from both clubs.  Let's take a look at this week's differentials shall we...

Meters Gained Diff:  Has the Demons winning this one by +537 meters.  Demons 4,849  Suns 4,312

Marks i50 Diff:  Demons winning by +8.  Demons 12  Suns 4 (Weid did his job pretty well and we connected a little better on occasions).

Contested Possession Diff:  Again Demons by +24.  Demons 127  Suns 103

That's three ticks.  We'll see where this goes over the rest of the season fellow minions.

Edited July 11, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Individual & Team - Weighted Average Scores

Round 6, 2020 - Demons vs Suns (Giants Stadium)

Melbourne Demons

We lose the team score stat and still win the match.  Pretty sure i haven't seen that happen too many times while putting these together.

The suns had 11 players with under 50 games vs our 5 which might go some way towards explaining the result outlier here.  Pretty sure there was a stat that says once you hit 9/10 players (or more) in the team with less than 50 games your chances of winning drop significantly.

We are still 4% off our 2019 average team score which "might" be an indicator that we are still a fair way off where we need to be in order to compete with the better rated clubs.  Time will tell.

Player	Score	Rank
Clayton Oliver	3.300	1
Steven May	3.100	2
Ed Langdon	3.025	3
Oscar McDonald	2.900	4
Christian Petracca	2.850	5
Jake Lever	2.750	6
Jack Viney	2.475	7
Max Gawn #	2.225	8
Christian Salem	2.100	9
Harley Bennell	1.900	10
Aaron Vandenberg	1.800	11
Mitchell Hannan	1.700	12
Kysaiah Pickett	1.600	13
Michael Hibberd	1.525	14
Jake Melksham	1.400	15
Bayley Fritsch	1.375	16
Neville Jetta	1.150	17
Jay Lockhart	1.100	18
James Harmes	1.000	19
Sam Weideman	0.900	20
Angus Brayshaw	0.450	21
Tom McDonald	0.100	22
Team Score	40.725
Top 6	17.925
Bottom 6	4.700
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Edited July 11, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Individual & Team - Weighted Average Scores

Round 6, 2020 - Demons vs Suns (Giants Stadium)

Gold Coast Suns

Player	Score	Rank
Touk Miller	5.275	1
Samuel Collins	3.600	2
Hugh Greenwood	3.300	3
David Swallow	3.025	4
Izak Rankine	2.900	5
Jack Lukosius	2.875	6
Jack Bowes	2.750	7
Charlie Ballard	2.425	8
Jarrod Witts #	2.200	9
Jarrod Harbrow	2.200	10
Lachlan Weller	2.075	11
Brandon Ellis	1.850	12
Ben King	1.625	13
Alex Sexton	1.600	14
Noah Anderson	1.550	15
Pearce Hanley	1.550	15
Nicholas Holman	1.550	17
Sam Day #	1.275	18
Brayden Fiorini	1.050	19
Ben Ainsworth	0.700	20
Darcy Macpherson	0.700	20
Connor Budarick	0.450	22
Team Score	46.525
Top 6	20.975
Bottom 6	5.725
# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

[george_on_the_outer 7,590]

13 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Not a convincing win over the Suns by any means.  Nonetheless, a solid steady win which i'll take any day over the rubbish we've dished up in the last season and a bit.

If we believe the "Stats Insider" article from 25 June 2019 these three stats are the "real performance indicators"of the AFL stats world...

? Meters Gained Differential - Believe it or not this stat has the strongest correlation with success since it's induction.  Extract from that article ...  "From 2015 to 2018 there were 21 cases of a team achieving a 200+ meters gained differential over the course of the season.  20 of those 21 teams made AFL finals".

? Marks inside 50 differential - According to the article "Just three of the last 18 GF teams have been ranked outside of the league's top six for marks inside 50 differential".

? Contested Possession Differential - Again from this article... "Since 2010, we have 11 examples of teams who achieved a 10+ contested possession differential average over the course of a season.  Nine of those teams found themselves playing on Prelim Final weekend".

So i'll be tracking how we went in each of these three differentials each week vs our opponents from here along with the usual individual and team weighted average scores from both clubs.  Let's take a look at this week's differentials shall we...

Meters Gained Diff:  Has the Demons winning this one by +537 meters.  Demons 4,849  Suns 4,312

Marks i50 Diff:  Demons winning by +8.  Demons 12  Suns 4 (Weid did his job pretty well and we connected a little better on occasions).

Contested Possession Diff:  Again Demons by +24.  Demons 127  Suns 103

That's three ticks.  We'll see where this goes over the rest of the season fellow minions.

Rusty....how are we tracking against those 3 KPI's this season?

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

3 hours ago, george_on_the_outer said:

Rusty....how are we tracking against those 3 KPI's this season?

G'day George.  Yes i didn't really want to look back as in my eyes our season only got going last night but i hear you.  Let's take a peek at the averages up to and including last night's match against the Suns ....

• Meters Gained Average Differential (We are looking for an average of + 200 or more) ? -60.4  Ranked 11th so not so good so far.  From here who knows but a good start last night with +537.  That's a big differential and a very good sign but obviously not expecting those sort of results against the better rated clubs.  The top five with current ladder positions in parenthesis as follows...

           1st  Power (1)  2nd Cats (2)  3rd  Pies (5)  4th Tigers (12)  5th Lions (3)

• Marks inside 50 Average Differential (ideally we need to see a top 6 ranking) ? We are presently ranked 9th with a 0.6 average.  12 last night is a big jump.  Keep something similar to that up and we will climb fairly swiftly from here.

           The top 5 in this stat... 1.  Power  2. Lions  3. Pies  4.  Tigers  5.  Dockers

• Contested Possession Average Differential.  This stat not quite as highly corelated with success (finals and likely Grand Final appearances) as the former two but nonetheless hitting the magic triple has us on the right path to finals vs not hitting them (looking for +10 or more) ?  +11  Ranked 3rd behind the Pies (No.1 with +13.5) and smidgen behind those puddy Cats (No.2 with +11.7).  Tracking well here.

            The top 5... 1. Pies  2. Cats  3. Demons  4. Lions  5.  Power

So to this point we are only hitting 1 out of 3.  Some major work ahead but hopefully last night is a possible turning point, all going well.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[george_on_the_outer 7,590]

RN thanks for that.  Yes a bit of a way to go yet, but much better after the GC game.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Weighted Average Scores at the end of Rnd 6, 2020

Pretty much tracking at the 2019 team score so far once the 20% time differential is added back.  Did we turn a corner last night against the Suns?  Still a number of big names tracking well under their 2019 average also with the 20% allowance added including Clarry (approx 9%), Harmes (17%), Salem (17%) and Gus (9%).  Tracc, Oscar, ANB & Hannan a fair way up on 2019 output so far.

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Max Gawn #	3.360	1	3.256	3.19	4	3
Clayton Oliver	3.305	2	4.643	-28.82	1	-1
Christian Petracca	3.240	3	2.616	23.85	10	7
Jack Viney	2.765	4	3.068	-9.88	5	1
Oscar McDonald	2.450	5	1.877	30.53	26	21
James Harmes	2.440	6	3.850	-36.62	2	-4
Steven May	2.355	7	2.446	-3.72	14	7
Alex N-Bullen	2.338	8	1.984	17.82	21	13
Ed Langdon	2.290	9	-	-	-	-
Christian Salem	2.175	10	3.448	-36.92	3	-7
Harley Bennell	2.075	11	-	-	-	-
Angus Brayshaw	2.055	12	2.894	-28.99	6	-6
Michael Hibberd	2.038	13	2.124	-4.05	20	7
Aaron Vandenburg	1.967	14	-	-	-	-
Mitchell Hannan	1.958	15	1.325	47.77	36	21
Jay Lockhart	1.944	16	1.660	17.11	31	15
Jake Lever	1.905	17	2.313	-17.64	17	0
Tom McDonald #	1.638	18	2.150	-23.81	19	1
Adam Tomlinson #	1.613	19	-	-	-	-
Neville Jetta	1.575	20	2.264	-30.43	18	-2
Nathan Jones *	1.475	21	2.711	-45.59	8	-13
Bayley Fritsch	1.195	22	2.641	-54.75	9	-13
Joel Smith	1.158	23	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.150	24	-	-	-	-
Kysaiah Pickett	1.106	25	-	-	-	-
Trent Rivers	1.033	26	-	-	-	-
Sam Weideman *	0.900	27	1.818	-50.50	23	-4
Jake Melksham	0.885	28	1.931	-54.17	23	-5
Jayden Hunt	0.858	29	1.958	-56.18	22	-7
Mitchell Brown *	0.625	30	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson *	0.250	31	-	-	-	-
Charlie Spargo *	-0.250	32	1.375	-118.18	23	-9
Average Team Score -Top 22	48.156		59.623	-19.23

# Hit outs to advantage not included   *Not an average only one match played

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Rnd 7, 2020 Giants Stadium - The Hawks vs the Demons

Too early to say but after a solid thumping of our old nemesis and two wins in a row, could we finally be seeing a turning of the tsunami tide that was 2019 and the first 5 rounds (the win against the Blues the exception)?

Numbers can be dodgy as we know, but sometimes when used comparatively and with enough games of data, we just might be able to deduce a bit of a trend or a shift happening that paints a bit of a canvas & compliments what we have watched on the field.

I would say we have possibly just seen that shift take place today in a very good follow up from last weeks gritty win.

What is leading me to that likely conclusion?  In short, mostly the team weighted score from today.  Same method, same weightings, same data going in to the rating.  Below shows how we performed today for the whole 22 vs the average 'best' 22 score from season 2019 AND 2018 adjusted to account for the 20% less game time in 2020...

Today's team weighted score ? 56.475

vs 2019 ? 59.623   Today's score looks to be under. However, adjust for 2020 time difference and it's a substantial improvement of 14.7%!

Lets take a look at the team's (best 22) average score under Goody in 2018  ? 69.528   Again we appear to be substantially under, but wait....adjust for the 20% factor and.... it's a marginal win today by 1.2% over the 2018 season's average!!   No mean feat indeed!

Also today was our best top 6 and bottom 6 score for this season and i would take a bet (without trolling through my records) better than anything we produced last season.  Without going the crow too early, this augers very well if we can keep the core of this present 22 together for the remainder of the season.

On an individual level.  The games of Tracc and Maxy, particularly Tracc, were something else today.  They weren't alone but boy they sure stood out.  How do you split them?  Probably Tracc gets the nod.

Some of Tracc's stats ? 16 contested, 23 effective disposals @ 79% (+ 6% on the AFL average DE%).  A massive 14 score involvements, 431 meters gained (2nd only to Clarry with a huge 505), 3 marks inside 50, 5 intercepts and a goal.

Big M ? 16 contested, 17 effective disposals @ 77%.  6 Contested marks, 7 score involvements and the most intercepts @ 8.  And this doesn't include the many hit outs to advantage.  Great game all round.

Viney ? lead the clearance count with 9, 15 effective disposals @ a clean 79%!  6 tackles and 7 score involvements!

Clarry ? also had a pretty special day with 20 effectives @ 69%, 4 clearances, 9 inside 50s, 6 tackles and 4 score involvements.  His performance just marred a little with 7 turnovers (the most on the day for the Demons).

Player	Score	Rank
Christian Petracca	5.675	1
Max Gawn #	4.300	2
Jack Viney	4.250	3
Clayton Oliver	3.475	4
Steven May	3.025	5
Ed Langdon	2.950	6
Oscar McDonald	2.850	7
Sam Weideman	2.725	8
Christian Salem	2.650	9
Michael Hibberd	2.650	9
Mitchell Hannan	2.500	11
Bayley Fritsch	2.400	12
Jake Melksham	1.975	13
Harley Bennell	1.950	14
Jake Lever	1.925	15
Angus Brayshaw	1.875	16
Jay Lockhart	1.775	17
Luke Jackson #	1.650	18
Neville Jetta	1.550	19
Kysaiah Pickett	1.500	20
James Harmes	1.450	21
Aaron Vandenberg	1.375	22
Team Score	56.475
Top 6	23.675
Bottom 6	9.300

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited July 19, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Weighted Average Scores at the end of Rnd 6, 2020

2020 season is roughly 3.7% up on 2019's average (so far).  The game against the Hawks saw us 14.7% ahead of 2019 as mentioned above.  Given how bad 2019 was, anyone sitting on about -30% or more are still 10% (or more) off their 2019 average (adjusted for 20% less game time this season) and in a fair spot of bother (at present) in a form sense.  At least statistically anyway.  You be the judge!

Tracc effectively about 59% up on his 2019 season statistically.  Can't say he is going that well as far as the naked eye's concerned, especially given the extreme lows we hit in 2019, but he sure is looking the goods.

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Christian Petracca	3.646	1	2.616	39.37	10	9
Max Gawn #	3.517	2	3.256	8.02	4	2
Clayton Oliver	3.333	3	4.643	-28.21	1	-2
Jack Viney	3.013	4	3.068	-1.79	5	1
Oscar McDonald	2.583	5	1.877	37.61	26	21
Steven May	2.467	6	2.446	0.86	14	8
Ed Langdon	2.400	7	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	2.338	8	1.984	17.82	21	13
James Harmes	2.275	9	3.850	-40.91	2	-7
Christian Salem	2.270	10	3.448	-34.16	3	-7
Michael Hibberd	2.160	11	2.124	1.69	20	9
Mitchell Hannan	2.094	12	1.325	58.04	36	24
Harley Bennell	2.033	13	-	-	-	-
Angus Brayshaw	2.025	14	2.894	-30.03	6	-8
Jay Lockhart	1.910	15	1.660	15.06	31	16
Jake Lever	1.908	16	2.313	-17.51	17	1
Aaron Vandenburg	1.819	17	-	-	-	-
Sam Weideman	1.813	18	1.818	-0.28	23	5
Tom McDonald #	1.638	19	2.150	-23.81	19	0
Adam Tomlinson #	1.613	20	-	-	-	-
Neville Jetta	1.569	21	2.264	-30.70	18	-3
Nathan Jones *	1.475	22	2.711	-45.59	8	-14
Bayley Fritsch	1.396	23	2.641	-47.14	9	-14
Kysaiah Pickett	1.185	24	-	-	-	-
Joel Smith	1.158	25	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.150	26	-	-	-	-
Jake Melksham	1.067	27	1.931	-44.74	23	-4
Trent Rivers	1.033	28	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson	0.950	29	-	-	-	-
Jayden Hunt	0.858	30	1.958	-56.18	22	-8
Mitchell Brown *	0.625	31	-	-	-	-
Charlie Spargo *	-0.250	32	1.375	-118.18	23	-9
Average Team Score -Top 22	49.899		59.623	-16.31

# Hit outs to advantage not included.

* Only 1 match played - score does not qualify as an average

Stats courtesy of footywire.com 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Rusty Nails

[Kent 2,909]

10 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Weighted Average Scores at the end of Rnd 6, 2020

2020 season is roughly 3.7% up on 2019's average (so far).  The game against the Hawks saw us 14.7% ahead of 2019 as mentioned above.  Given how bad 2019 was, anyone sitting on about -30% or more are still 10% (or more) off their 2019 average (adjusted for 20% less game time this season) and in a fair spot of bother (at present) in a form sense.  At least statistically anyway.  You be the judge!

Tracc effectively about 59% up on his 2019 season statistically.  Can't say he is going that well as far as the naked eye's concerned, especially given the extreme lows we hit in 2019, but he sure is looking the goods.

Player	2020 Weighted Score	2020 Rank	2019 Weighted Score	% Change vs 2019	2019 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2019
Christian Petracca	3.646	1	2.616	39.37	10	9
Max Gawn #	3.517	2	3.256	8.02	4	2
Clayton Oliver	3.333	3	4.643	-28.21	1	-2
Jack Viney	3.013	4	3.068	-1.79	5	1
Oscar McDonald	2.583	5	1.877	37.61	26	21
Steven May	2.467	6	2.446	0.86	14	8
Ed Langdon	2.400	7	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	2.338	8	1.984	17.82	21	13
James Harmes	2.275	9	3.850	-40.91	2	-7
Christian Salem	2.270	10	3.448	-34.16	3	-7
Michael Hibberd	2.160	11	2.124	1.69	20	9
Mitchell Hannan	2.094	12	1.325	58.04	36	24
Harley Bennell	2.033	13	-	-	-	-
Angus Brayshaw	2.025	14	2.894	-30.03	6	-8
Jay Lockhart	1.910	15	1.660	15.06	31	16
Jake Lever	1.908	16	2.313	-17.51	17	1
Aaron Vandenburg	1.819	17	-	-	-	-
Sam Weideman	1.813	18	1.818	-0.28	23	5
Tom McDonald #	1.638	19	2.150	-23.81	19	0
Adam Tomlinson #	1.613	20	-	-	-	-
Neville Jetta	1.569	21	2.264	-30.70	18	-3
Nathan Jones *	1.475	22	2.711	-45.59	8	-14
Bayley Fritsch	1.396	23	2.641	-47.14	9	-14
Kysaiah Pickett	1.185	24	-	-	-	-
Joel Smith	1.158	25	-	-	-	-
Toby Bedford *	1.150	26	-	-	-	-
Jake Melksham	1.067	27	1.931	-44.74	23	-4
Trent Rivers	1.033	28	-	-	-	-
Luke Jackson	0.950	29	-	-	-	-
Jayden Hunt	0.858	30	1.958	-56.18	22	-8
Mitchell Brown *	0.625	31	-	-	-	-
Charlie Spargo *	-0.250	32	1.375	-118.18	23	-9
Average Team Score -Top 22	49.899		59.623	-16.31

# Hit outs to advantage not included.

* Only 1 match played - score does not qualify as an average

Stats courtesy of footywire.com 

GOTTA BE CONCERNED ABOUT SALEM HARMES AND BRAYSHAW on those numbers

Oscars rise is meteoric. Fantastic and well deserved I never really rated him but his improvement has been great

[jnrmac 20,060]

33 minutes ago, Kent said:

GOTTA BE CONCERNED ABOUT SALEM HARMES AND BRAYSHAW on those numbers

Oscars rise is meteoric. Fantastic and well deserved I never really rated him but his improvement has been great

Oscar has reduced his clangers, Salem has been a lot better the past two weeks, Harmes is playing a role each week and Brayshaw is having issues. I suspect right foot but its only a guess.

 

But 2019 is a pretty low benchmark. They should all be well above.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

10 hours ago, Kent said:

GOTTA BE CONCERNED ABOUT SALEM HARMES AND BRAYSHAW on those numbers

Oscars rise is meteoric. Fantastic and well deserved I never really rated him but his improvement has been great

 

9 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Oscar has reduced his clangers, Salem has been a lot better the past two weeks, Harmes is playing a role each week and Brayshaw is having issues. I suspect right foot but its only a guess.

 

But 2019 is a pretty low benchmark. They should all be well above.

Note Erratum:  The averages table above is to the end of Rnd 7, 2020 not round 6 as posted.

I only keep turnovers but Jnr your footy nose is sniffing things out pretty well.  The stats backing up your clanger (turnover) comment.  As you say 2019 is a low benchmark for most.  The exceptions, referred to by Kent, are Harmes & Salem who finished the season ranked 2nd & 3rd respectively in 2019 in these tables.  So they're coming off a high base (2019 not so much a high base in a normalish season!).

If we add 20% back for the time reduction factor we can take a look at their true position in 2020 vs 2019

Harmes -  2020 average score (so far to Rnd 7) ? 2.275 vs 2019 ? 3.850

Now we just add back 20% for time difference vs 2019 ? 2.275 x 1.20 = 2.730.  Adjusted % difference from 2020 compared to 2019 is 29%.  Still significant but not -40.91% as shown in the averages table.  I will take Jnr's word that he is being set a task/s suggesting he may not be as freed up as he might have been in general in 2019.

Salem - i'm not going to go through the above exercise again but you get the drift and can work this adjusted % out for yourself if you like.  He is probably somewhere around 20%ish or so off not the -34% shown.  Still a drop but off a highish base last season and as Jnr has said, seems to be picking things up the last few games.

Oscar - The fewest turnovers this season on the entire list.  Jnr is on to this one.  He is also intercepting substantially more, significant increase in average meters gained and getting a few more average effective disposals vs 2019.  Fitter, stronger longer!? ?

Brayshaw - adjust as per Harmes if you want a more realistic % change vs 2019.  Probably only about 18% off or so.  He has improved his average turnovers vs 2019 however.  Ranked equal 2nd here alongside Clarry in 2019, second only to Melksham at No.1    In 2020 he has improved here a little ranked 9th.  No time to rummage through significant average stat differences in the two seasons for Gus tonight.  Might take a look sometime later though.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Rusty Nails