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Free Kick Differential 2019

Demonland
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  On 26/07/2019 at 09:20, Demonland said:

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 I'm not so much interested in the differential as I am in the result of For and Against frees.

It would be great to see something based on a points system like Supercoach with points deducted or given for Frees resulting directly in goals or denying a goal, momentum killer frees would be an interesting stat also. The amount of times I see us awarded a free which halts our forward progress and allows the opposition to flood back does my head in.

Would love to see the breakdown for individual umpires as well. That might confirm or deny long standing bias. Anyone know for certain that the Umps have stats recorded against them and what kind?

 

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    would nice to see which zone they received the free kicks in 

    or even free kicks to the 3rd quarter only

    and even on a umpire basis to which team they favour 

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    Thanks @Demonland , but in a sense - meh.  I think we all knew this stat all along without needing it officially confirmed.

    I can't recall a time as a MFC supporter over a nearly 30 year period when we would have been in positive territory over the season or any more than a period of 2 games.  I don't know if it's an intentional bias, but I'd put good money on the stats backing up my assertion.

    No surprises for me either that the Bulldogs are an umpires favorite as we frequently seemed to get rolled by them in close games decided by BS/game-changing free kicks for a number of years.

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    A 133 free differential between most and least favored is seriously disturbing. It equates to an average of 7 free kicks a game, any one of which could be game changing (ask Scott Thompson).

    For the credibility of the competition and the umpiring, these stats should even out over 18 rounds.

    All conspiracy theories should at least be aired but not necessarily believed.

    However, this should be no.1 priority for 'shocking' Hocking.

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      On 26/07/2019 at 11:17, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

    Thanks @Demonland , but in a sense - meh.  I think we all knew this stat all along without needing it officially confirmed.

    I can't recall a time as a MFC supporter over a nearly 30 year period when we would have been in positive territory over the season or any more than a period of 2 games.  I don't know if it's an intentional bias, but I'd put good money on the stats backing up my assertion.

    No surprises for me either that the Bulldogs are an umpires favorite as we frequently seemed to get rolled by them in close games decided by BS/game-changing free kicks for a number of years.

    This table is from the last 15 years. You can add the year to date in the OP to the list. 

     

    840BE299-2DF3-4669-9FA8-71FC079608B3.jpeg

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      On 26/07/2019 at 09:57, dworship said:

     I'm not so much interested in the differential as I am in the result of For and Against frees.

    It would be great to see something based on a points system like Supercoach with points deducted or given for Frees resulting directly in goals or denying a goal, momentum killer frees would be an interesting stat also. The amount of times I see us awarded a free which halts our forward progress and allows the opposition to flood back does my head in.

    Would love to see the breakdown for individual umpires as well. That might confirm or deny long standing bias. Anyone know for certain that the Umps have stats recorded against them and what kind?

     

    I would certainly be very interested in the WC vs visitor stats in regards to the WA maggot who is best mates with one of the Eagles ? 

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      On 26/07/2019 at 12:35, Demonland said:

    This table is from the last 15 years. You can add the year to date in the OP to the list. 

     

    840BE299-2DF3-4669-9FA8-71FC079608B3.jpeg

    Eliminate west coast from the afl

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      On 26/07/2019 at 12:35, Demonland said:

    This table is from the last 15 years. You can add the year to date in the OP to the list. 

     

    840BE299-2DF3-4669-9FA8-71FC079608B3.jpeg

    No Western Australian umpires to umpire a Eagles game next season and beyond. Freo would be happy about that as well.

    It would be interesting to see if the Eagles  would struggle.IMO they would.

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      On 26/07/2019 at 09:57, dworship said:

     I'm not so much interested in the differential as I am in the result of For and Against frees.

    It would be great to see something based on a points system like Supercoach with points deducted or given for Frees resulting directly in goals or denying a goal, momentum killer frees would be an interesting stat also. The amount of times I see us awarded a free which halts our forward progress and allows the opposition to flood back does my head in.

    Would love to see the breakdown for individual umpires as well. That might confirm or deny long standing bias. Anyone know for certain that the Umps have stats recorded against them and what kind?

     

    To be honest, I have mixed feelings about a breakdown from individual umpires.  On the one hand I think they are paid professionals in a multi million dollar sport and it's fair to subject them to reasonable scrutiny, but on the other I also reconise the environment of pressure, stigma and abuse that umpires endure and indiviualising free kick stats from them for and against teams could make things a whole lot worse from the umpires personal perspective - at least if the stats were made public.

    I agree entirely with what you are saying about the context and situation in which free kick are given though.  Last weeks game against WC was a case in point to some extent.  That first quarter was diabolical - the umpires paid something like 9 frees against, 0 for us and I feel was at least partly a contributer to the scoreboard at quarter time.  Yes we kicked for goal poorly, but we were on top of them in general play I felt and they kept on being let back into the contest with cheap free kicks and free kicks in front of goal.  By the end of the game the free kicks had been evened up, but I think the damage had been done by that substantial quarter time scoreboard deficit that had us playing catch up footy and the Eagles a buffer to work with.

    Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

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      On 26/07/2019 at 14:01, nosoupforme said:

    No Western Australian umpires to umpire a Eagles game next season and beyond. Freo would be happy about that as well.

    It would be interesting to see if the Eagles  would struggle.IMO they would.

    It might help, but I'm not sure that would actually necessarily fix the problem.  I'm guessing that the crowd noise issue at West Coast games intimidating the umpires is probably the biggest part of the issue and would probably still influence interstate umpires.

    The AFL does need to find a solution because it really is an integrity issue every bit as big as say tanking.  Maybe they could introduce a rule and start paying free kicks against the WC when their crowd boos or makes noise or something, or maybe the umpires could wear ear plugs.

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    Something must have changed this year though - Freo and WC are only +4 differential which is my takeaway from the OP

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