On 8/7/2018 at 11:48 AM, wonnabeeri said:

132.8% is our best ever percentage after rd 19.

 

13 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

We have 14 players that have kicked 10+ goals this season.

Thats the most since at least 1965.....   the Footywire.com stats only went back that far.

We're well on our way to our best ever underperforming season, that's for sure.

4 hours ago, praha said:

 

We're well on our way to our best ever underperforming season, that's for sure.

While that's an amusing comment, this year is really about getting ready for a genuine assault on the Premiership in 2019 to 2022. The stats show we're building in so many areas. Next year I expect it to all come together and make us a serious contender.

I'd like us to make Finals this year so as to give the players some September experience, all to help with the 2019 to 2022 window of opportunity.

36 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

While that's an amusing comment, this year is really about getting ready for a genuine assault on the Premiership in 2019 to 2022. The stats show we're building in so many areas. Next year I expect it to all come together and make us a serious contender.

I'd like us to make Finals this year so as to give the players some September experience, all to help with the 2019 to 2022 window of opportunity.

That was all said last year unfortunately Now its 2019  to 2022 Say when?

The team has   yet to get the desire and the hunger still.

I really hope we play finals also. Its a fail on many levels if we dont in my opinion.

9 minutes ago, jackaub said:

That was all said last year unfortunately Now its 2019  to 2022 Say when?

The team has   yet to get the desire and the hunger still.

I really hope we play finals also. Its a fail on many levels if we dont in my opinion.

I'm working on the basis that 2017 didn't actually exist.

20 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm working on the basis that 2017 didn't actually exist.

Yes best forgotton mate Agreed!

2 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

While that's an amusing comment, this year is really about getting ready for a genuine assault on the Premiership in 2019 to 2022. The stats show we're building in so many areas. Next year I expect it to all come together and make us a serious contender.

I'd like us to make Finals this year so as to give the players some September experience, all to help with the 2019 to 2022 window of opportunity.

It just doesn't 'come together'. That's like Bailey saying we just need 50-100 games into the players like Maric, Morton, Petterd etc

Someone needs to fire up and stand up. My fear is that Goodwin sends them to sleep with his monotone delivery. Petracca is one that could do it. Brayshaw and Harmes could do it. TMac Clarrie and Max can do it and have done it but who else?

6/7 weeks of good football and reputations will be made for the next decade.

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

It just doesn't 'come together'. That's like Bailey saying we just need 50-100 games into the players like Maric, Morton, Petterd etc

Someone needs to fire up and stand up. My fear is that Goodwin sends them to sleep with his monotone delivery. Petracca is one that could do it. Brayshaw and Harmes could do it. TMac Clarrie and Max can do it and have done it but who else?

6/7 weeks of good football and reputations will be made for the next decade.

A few weeks back I recall commenting that Goodwin must say something at half time because for a period there we were poor in the first half and then significantly better in Q3. Perhaps he was too monotone pre-game and animated at half time. More likely, though, is that he could see the problems in the first half and could explain to the players how to fix them for the second half. Of course, that still required the players to execute correctly which it seems they couldn't do last week against Sydney.

It would be nice if we could keep this thread a little more focused on statistics and a discussion thereof.

Anyway, I did a runaround on all the amateur AFL modelling sites which use some variation of the Elo rating system and we ranked second in just about every one of them. We are an absolute anomaly.

But that anomaly is fairly easily explained by our list profile as evidenced by the AFL under 22 squad - we have a heavy reliance on a core of immature players with a gap in the 25-30 y/o bracket. Our veterans aren't elite either - all as a result of the nature of our rebuild from the very depths.

Here is the list of teams with less list experience going into the season:

Western Bulldogs — 56.4

Carlton — 56.4

Brisbane — 55.2

Gold Coast — 53.5

St Kilda — 52.6

North Melbourne — 51.8

Here is a list of teams at the bottom of a typical Elo ranking system:

North Melbourne
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda
Fremantle
Carlton
Gold Coast

8 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

While that's an amusing comment, this year is really about getting ready for a genuine assault on the Premiership in 2019 to 2022. The stats show we're building in so many areas. Next year I expect it to all come together and make us a serious contender.

I'd like us to make Finals this year so as to give the players some September experience, all to help with the 2019 to 2022 window of opportunity.

Every year it's next year. Missing finals would be underperforming. 

Wasn't sure where else to put this, but going into the last game we're outright first on the "Quarters Won" ladder:

1. Melbourne - 57
2. West Coast - 56
3. Richmond - 54
4. Collingwood - 52
5. GWS - 48
6. Geelong - 48
7. Hawthorn - 45
8. Sydney - 45

Posted in the post-match thread but repeated here for posterity.

AFL Alternative Ladder rd 21  - 10 points or less reversals:

Melbourne       18        3         

Richmond       15        6

Collingwood   14        7

Geelong           13        8

West Coast      13        8         

Port Adelaide  13        8         

Essendon         13        8         

GWS               12        8      1

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

North               12        9         

Hawthorn        11        10       

Sydney            11        10       

Adelaide         10        11       

Edited August 20, 20186 yr by Skuit

On 8/17/2018 at 4:51 PM, Skuit said:

It would be nice if we could keep this thread a little more focused on statistics and a discussion thereof.

As it sits after Round 22. Luff has been championing his butt off with us all year.

#2 Contested Possession Differential

#2 Pressure

#1 Points For

#9 Points against

#2 Points From Turnovers Differential 

#2 Points From Clearances Differential 

#1 Inside 50 Differential 

#1 Time In Forward Half

#1 Forward Half Intercepts

#2 Points From Forward Half Chains

Roosy also added we are 4th easiest team to be scored against but we need to play to our strengths and as we mature that will be fixed.

 

Edited August 20, 20186 yr by Dee Zephyr

We won the most quarters (61) of any team this year. WC on 59, Rich 56, Coll 55 and Geel 52

Also highest average winning margin of 52.2 (funnily enough Bris is 3rd on 42.6 behind Geel on 46.7)

4th lowest losing margin of 22.6 (Geel No. 1 on 12.9)

Can someone explain how we can have a higher ave. winning margin and lower ave. losing margin than Richmond,  but they have a superior percentage? I realise it is points for vs. against but how does the ave. margins work in this scenario?

Edited August 26, 20186 yr by TheCurseisBroken

2 hours ago, TheCurseisBroken said:

We won the most quarters (61) of any team this year. WC on 59, Rich 56, Coll 55 and Geel 52

Also highest average winning margin of 52.2 (funnily enough Bris is 3rd on 42.6 behind Geel on 46.7)

4th lowest losing margin of 22.6 (Geel No. 1 on 12.9)

Can someone explain how we can have a higher ave. winning margin and lower ave. losing margin than Richmond,  but they have a superior percentage? I realise it is points for vs. against but how does the ave. margins work in this scenario?

Points are a percentage of the total across every game. Winning margin is only calculated across winning games.

So if you play two matches:

Game 1: 100 - 50

Game 2: 80 - 100

Your average winning margin is 50. 

PF: 180

PA: 150

%: (180/150) x 100 = 120%

 

Scenario for Richmond:

Game 1: 100 - 80

Game 2: 100 - 60

Average winning margin: 30

PF: 200

PA: 140

%: 142.9%

 

Hope that makes sense. Simply put if your winning margin and losing margin differential is high enough and you win enough games, the occasional 40-point loss won't impact your %. As we see with our percentage.

Edited August 26, 20186 yr by praha

I see! So basically it's because they won more games yeah

3 minutes ago, TheCurseisBroken said:

I see! So basically it's because they won more games yeah

hmm not necessarily. it has nothing to do with wins and losses. it's the percentage of the total of points for and points against. we have a higher percentage than teams above us.

but in the content of us vs Richmond's percentage,given we are 4 games behind them and close on %, we would likely have a higher percentage than them if we'd won 2-3 more games because we'd have more for and fewer against.

 

Edited August 26, 20186 yr by praha

Player Season Rankings (inclusive of Rnd 23)

Based on a statistical composite of selective weighted averages.

Includes the following statistical averages:  Effective Disposals, Contested Marks, Marks i50, 1 %ers , Clearances, Rebound 50s, inside 50s, Tackles, Score involvements, Intercepts, Goals and a reasonable negative adjustment for turnovers.  A long way off perfect and no doubt plenty of flaws but a roughish guide as to how a player is sitting vs those around him when comparing like with like (similar role / position), where possible.

For Maxy a rough adjustment is required to bring him up to spec overall with "hit outs to advantage" not included.  Lets say 0.75 as a very rough stab in the dark.  Puts him on 4.045 in 3rd position behind Clarry & Jack.  Also i did not include Tyson or Kent's Rnd 23 score as i felt it would skew their results a little too much given how early they departed the match and fewer games played vs most others.

Player	Ranking	Score
Clayton Oliver	1	5.131
Jack Viney	2	4.500
Angus Brayshaw	3	3.730
Jordan Lewis	4	3.626
Tom McDonald	5	3.462
Christian Salem	6	3.456
Nathan Jones	7	3.434
James Harmes	8	3.417
Max Gawn	9	3.295
Dom Tyson	10	3.112
Jesse Hogan	11	3.073
Corey Maynard*	12	3.000
Bayley Fritsch	13	2.979
Christian Petracca	14	2.937
Michael Hibberd	15	2.861
Jay K-Harris	16	2.683
Neville Jetta	17	2.676
Alex N-Bullen	18	2.655
Aaron Vandenberg	19	2.581
Jake Lever	20	2.577
Billy Stretch*	21	2.513
Tim Smith	22	2.494
Joshua Wagner	23	2.465
Jake Melksham	24	2.385
Mitchell Hannan	25	2.384
Charlie Spargo	26	2.370
Dean Kent	27	2.363
Bernie Vince	28	2.324
Oscar McDonald	29	2.322
Jeff Garlett	30	2.314
Tomas Bugg	31	2.158
Sam Frost	32	2.073
Cameron Pedersen	33	2.006
Joel Smith	34	1.838
Sam Weideman	35	1.836
Jayden Hunt	36	1.746
Harrison Petty*	37	0.675

* Played less than 3 games hence sample size not large enough for comparative purposes.  Posted for interest only.

Edited August 28, 20186 yr by Rusty Nails

I've got a question around our 'process' of moving it into the forward line for a shot on goal. I'm not saying our current way is problematic (yes it can be tightened up) - but I recall very few long kicks for goal on the run from 50, or at least entering from 60/50. 

Are there any stats on, how many goals the team have kicked from beyond 50, or even 'streaming in' and kicking it between 50-40m.

If we have variability in our style, does this add to the unpredictability (although it increases the risk of missing).

Or with TMAC, HOGAN, WEID and Captain Sparrow... and that fact that we are the highest scoring side, and in a prelim - 

does it matter nought anyway..

Edited September 18, 20186 yr by Danelska