A Day at the Races

[Gorgoroth 12,918]

Wrote down the trifecta for race 9.

11, 5, 12

put on 5, 11, 10... I stuffed up and didn’t check properly...just missed out on $900

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Gorgoroth said:

Super Seth just pips Alligator Blood who I was on, bugger.

Yeah me too Gor......jockey was asleep on the line !

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Wrote down the trifecta for race 9.

11, 5, 12

put on 5, 11, 10... I stuffed up and didn’t check properly...just missed out on $900

Oh no....Caulfield or Randwick?

I had an ok day in the end. Was all over Black Heart Bart for a place. Couldnt resist after last week. Wont be 18 & 4 next start thats for sure.

Had Nights Watch cause ive seen the painting in Amsterdam...haha.....was on Shadow Hero and Trekking.

Trekking in the Everest....has to be a bet doesnt it??

[Gorgoroth 12,918]

 

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh no....Caulfield or Randwick?

I had an ok day in the end. Was all over Black Heart Bart for a place. Couldnt resist after last week. Wont be 18 & 4 next start thats for sure.

Had Nights Watch cause ive seen the painting in Amsterdam...haha.....was on Shadow Hero and Trekking.

Trekking in the Everest....has to be a bet doesnt it??

Caulfield, I have it written in my phone, was out in he garage and when the race was done I looked at my wife and said, I’ve got the trifecta.... showed her what I had written down, came inside checked ticket and I’m now the flattest guy. I usually always check the ticket.

[JV7 2,350]

1 hour ago, Neil Crompton said:

Haha Please don’t do it every week. I’ll go broke.

I actually had a good day on the punt.. Got Super Seth among a few others but Noire wasn't a great tip haha

[Macca 16,902]

16 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah me too Gor......jockey was asleep on the line !

I was on Alligator Blood as well Wadda.  Looked home at the half furlong.  A lot can happen in that final 100m.

Jockey not at fault though.  Rode it all the way to the line with no let up.  Just got beaten by a better horse on the day.  That's racing.

A $2Million race these days so it's a fine line between ultimate glory and running 2nd. 

But to the winners go the spoils and Super Seth looks a real good middle distance horse if they race it on. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Me thinks this carnival for the big races will be impossible to predict more so than previous years. We have new names popping up with eye catching performances. You just don’t know where to look at the moment, intriguing to say the least. Feel free to post up your Boxed Tris and F4s, I need all the help I can get.

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,221]

B

 

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/tips/13-10-2019-horse-racing-tips-and-best-bets-cranbourne-cranbourne-cup-day/553176

 

I have found this site to be pretty good for provincial meetings. (Not so good on metropolitan meetings.) Here are their best bets for Cranbourne today.

 

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 William Thomas

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 13 Zorro’s Dream

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Royal Crown

[Macca 16,902]

48 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Me thinks this carnival for the big races will be impossible to predict more so than previous years. We have new names popping up with eye catching performances. You just don’t know where to look at the moment, intriguing to say the least. Feel free to post up your Boxed Tris and F4s, I need all the help I can get.

A good case in point is 'Cape of Good Hope' yesterday winning the Caulfield Stakes.

But the form was there for all to see DZ if we are prepared to acknowledge that the middle distance Group racing held overseas are superior to our's held in Australia.  The very best horses from overseas aren't here but the 2nd tier are. 

And 'Cape of Good Hope' has been running very good times over those middle distances despite not winning those contested races. 

As an example it recorded a time of 01:52.50 for 1900m.at its last start and 01:59.50 for 2000m in its 2nd last start.  Both were Group 1 races.  Albeit on 'Firm' tracks but firm is often good in real terms.  The definitions vary.

And those times are a lot quicker than what we run in Australia.  They ran the 2000m in 02:02.52 in the Caulfield Stakes yesterday which is still very slick but the overseas horse got the spoils.

But times aren't everything.  Winning form at Group level is even more noticable.  It's why the Cups and Cox Plate are being targeted by overseas connections.

In fact,  if we count Avilius as an overseas horse,  6 of the top 7 in the betting in the Cox Plate are from overseas.  Mystic Journey being the outlier. 

Lys Gracieux is favourite and Cape of Good Hope is equal 2nd favourite along with Mystic Journey. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

I was on Alligator Blood as well Wadda.  Looked home at the half furlong.  A lot can happen in that final 100m.

Jockey not at fault though.  Rode it all the way to the line with no let up.  Just got beaten by a better horse on the day.  That's racing.

A $2Million race these days so it's a fine line between ultimate glory and running 2nd. 

But to the winners go the spoils and Super Seth looks a real good middle distance horse if they race it on. 

Was a light hearted dig at the jock....he didnt see it coming not his fault.

Does anyone know where to find the sectionals for that race? Caulfield Guineas....love to know what that last 200m was.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,902]

7 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Was a light hearted dig at the jock....he didnt see it coming not his fault.

Does anyone know where to find the sectionals for that race? Caulfield Guineas....love to know what that last 200m was.

If you watch the race closely you'll notice that the jockey did indeed see Super Seth coming.

That's why he was riding Alligator Blood right to the line.  I thought the jockey might have got done for over use of the persuador!  He was desperately looking for the finish.

I get that you were being lighthearted but others take these things very seriously.

The truth is that the horse didn't quite see out the trip where as Super Seth was eating up the extra distance.  The last 600m was 00:35.14 but Super Seth probably closed with 00:34.00 (or less)  It came from a long way back.  A great ride by Zahra.

And I'm not talking through my hip pocket as my money was on Alligator Blood ?

By the way,  it's always easy to pick which horse Matty Hill has backed (or not backed) Mind you,  he's got nothing on the late Bill Collins or Bert Bryant. 

[Macca 16,902]

5 hours ago, bingers said:

B

 

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/tips/13-10-2019-horse-racing-tips-and-best-bets-cranbourne-cranbourne-cup-day/553176

 

I have found this site to be pretty good for provincial meetings. (Not so good on metropolitan meetings.) Here are their best bets for Cranbourne today.

 

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 William Thomas

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 13 Zorro’s Dream

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Royal Crown

Got the exacta in the William Thomas race bingers.  Really fancied Fine Dane and if it had have got up the exacta might have paid 200+

Had William Thomas included but only for 2nd place.  Tavisan too good though.  Decent field too although it was a $100k race.

Edited October 13, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 16,902]

And Craig Williams wins another Listed race aboard Dr Drill.  I was on 'So You Win' but Williams had the race won a long way from home.  Decent prizemoney too ... $400k for a Country cup (Cranbourne)

Of course it's Casey territory so it's not really the Country anymore! 

And Dr Drill just keeps winning too.  Gets placed well more importantly.  Too good.

Edited October 13, 2019 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

44 minutes ago, Macca said:

And Craig Williams wins another Listed race aboard Dr Drill.  I was on 'So You Win’ but Williams had the race won a long way from home.  Decent prizemoney too ... $400k for a Country cup (Cranbourne)

Of course it's Casey territory so it's not really the Country anymore! 

And Dr Drill just keeps winning too.  Gets placed well more importantly.  Too good.

Same here Macca, found itself in an awkward spot during the run and ran home well but the winner was way too good.

I always tell myself to remember these Pat Carey roughies over longer distances but I never do lol. Naivasha second at $100. 

Edited October 13, 2019 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,902]

1 minute ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Same here Macca, found itself in a awkward spot during the run and ran home well but the winner was way too good.

I always tell myself to remember these Pat Carey roughies over longer distances but I never do lol. Naivasha second at $100. 

And if we look back at Naivasha's previous form it had a show at getting into the finish today. It drew wide but it gets back anyway.

The quinella paid $167 and the exacta $181 and on form Naivasha was in the top 5.  One that got away but I got a nice collect in the Apache Cat Classic.  Horrid day yesterday but got back on board today.

Our 3pick on the MB thread adds up to a tidy sum too.  Here's hoping DZ!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

If you watch the race closely you'll notice that the jockey did indeed see Super Seth coming.

That's why he was riding Alligator Blood right to the line.  I thought the jockey might have got done for over use of the persuador!  He was desperately looking for the finish.

I get that you were being lighthearted but others take these things very seriously.

The truth is that the horse didn't quite see out the trip where as Super Seth was eating up the extra distance.  The last 600m was 00:35.14 but Super Seth probably closed with 00:34.00 (or less)  It came from a long way back.  A great ride by Zahra.

And I'm not talking through my hip pocket as my money was on Alligator Blood ?

By the way,  it's always easy to pick which horse Matty Hill has backed (or not backed) Mind you,  he's got nothing on the late Bill Collins or Bert Bryant. 

Well actually i was just being sympathetic to someone else's post.  Think ill just put in my best from now on.

Jockeys make mistakes, theyre only human. They get paid a fortune to do a job and they are open to criticism if they make a mistake. Mark Zarah made $90,000 in 40 mins and good on him, but hes not infallible.

I agree it was beaten by a better horse on the day.

[Macca 16,902]

6 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well actually i was just being sympathetic to someone else's post.  Think ill just put in my best from now on.

Jockeys make mistakes, theyre only human. They get paid a fortune to do a job and they are open to criticism if they make a mistake. Mark Zarah made $90,000 in 40 mins and good on him, but hes not infallible.

I agree it was beaten by a better horse on the day.

No worries Wadda

I'm just in the jockey's corner.  No big deal.  A point of difference without any fanfare.

As an example ... both DZ and I were on 'So You Win' in the Cranbourne Cup today - ridden by Damien Lane.

The horse gets back as a matter of course but it ended up 3 or 4 back on the fence because of its racing patterns.

And you what happens from there ... the jockey on the horse on its outside locks it in because that's what happens.  Nearly every time.

Before it could see real daylight Dr Drill had scooted away.  Might have been rigged that way for all we know! ?

But I factored that in beforehand.  $5.50 with the bookies and it looked over the odds .  But the bookies cleaned up.  So I'm the mug (probably)

 

[binman 42,591]

On 10/12/2019 at 6:00 PM, Gorgoroth said:

Wrote down the trifecta for race 9.

11, 5, 12

put on 5, 11, 10... I stuffed up and didn’t check properly...just missed out on $900

If it is any consolation i bet with a mate and. I do the selections and he find the prices and put the bets on. I texted across the numbers and things looked great after Rox the Castle saluted followed by California Zimbol.

As is my wont checked my text and could not believe that inexplicably i had texted a 5 not a 6! And i had checked all my numbers too before sending. Not closely enough obviously. Confirmation bias at work.

I though to myself that i hope that didn't put a mozz on us. It did. Could not buy winner after that. So many close things, starting with Manicure in the next and finishing with Ball of Muscle in the last.

I think i'm going to go for long shots in the WFA races from here on. Such an average lot the Aussie horses and as Macca point out our milers and up horses are miles behind the European horses.  Hard to line times up because our races have weird, often muddled tempos, compared to Europe where they routinely use pace makers and run consistent sectionals but that is a furphy we like to rely on to hide behind the fact that save freaks like Winx (and sprinters) we have average horses. 

I backed So You Win today. So annoyed as i like Dr Drill and i talked myself out of it. But still i maintain it was a terrible ride by Damien Lane. Gave it no chance. I think you're being very kind Macca giving him an out. 

[Macca 16,902]

45 minutes ago, binman said:

I backed So You Win today. So annoyed as i like Dr Drill and i talked myself out of it. But still i maintain it was a terrible ride by Damien Lane. Gave it no chance. I think you're being very kind Macca giving him an out. 

Watched the replay a number of times now ...

I was watching Damien Lane like a hawk and once he took the fence position he was always riding for luck.  But I'm guessing it was under instruction too.  He went straight to the fence from the jump and that had to be a pre-planned move. 

But we'll probably never know for sure.  And it looked like he was trying to get out along the back straight but Jamie Kah aboard Lord Fandango was giving no favours. 

'Ride Like a Girl' hey?  Jamie plays for keeps and good on her.  The connections probably thought the gaps would appear for 'So You Win' but it was a very competitive field despite the seemingly easy win for Dr Drill

But I was like you BM ... I talked myself out of backing Dr Drill and went for the swooper and the odds instead.  Shortish straight though hey? 

They didn't dawdle up front either and So You Win was in the clear at the top of the straight but had no real acceleration.

As previously stated,  the bookies probably cleaned up as a lot of the money may well have come for So You Win (at the odds)

Edited October 13, 2019 by Macca

[binman 42,591]

Jamie kah is a gun. As us Raquel Clark.

[Macca 16,902]

Racing at Caulfield on Wednesday ... 4 stakes races to be run and all 4 look to be decent betting races.  The fields are decent too.

The winner of the Coongy Hcp (Race 3) gets a berth in the Caulfield Cup and the last 3 races will attract the most attention ... Races 6,  7 & 8

Go to www.racenet.com.au for the full fields,  form & odds.

[Macca 16,902]

Best Bet

Saturday Caulfield

Race 5 No.3 Soothing $3.10

[Gorgoroth 12,918]

Best bet

Caulfield

Race 3, No4 Warning $4.40 W

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

59 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Best bet

Caulfield

Race 3, No4 Warning $4.40 W

Think its Race 4 No 3 Goro.....  

Best Bet:

Saturday Randwick Race 4 No 4 Still Single $3.90 (W)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Saturday Best

Caulfield 

Race 7 No. 9 God Of Thunder $4.60

Thinking they will go like the clappers in front which will enable GOT to get a cosy run behind them and swoop home.