Statistical Improvement?

[rpfc 28,249]

Ok, so those that have been here a while know I don't mind looking at the stats and that I also trail off when the stats start to get too depressing to continue capturing but here we go...

I think Clearances, Inside 50s, Uncontested Possies, Contested Possies, Score, and Quarters Won are tried and tested measurements of any team at any level. Below is a table that shows our average in all those categories from the last 3 years and also the differential between us and our opponent. For example, in the Clearances column we can see that we averaged 37.6 clearances last year - an increase of 3.3 - but our differential only went down 0.3 so our opponents averaged 3 more clearances than they did in 2014.

	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score	QW
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4	35
2015 Melbourne Ave	37.6	44.5	203.5	135.2	71.5
2014 Differential	-4.8	-11.6	-6.5	-1.5	-28.1	30
2014 Melbourne Ave	34.3	40.5	218.4	130.2	60.7
2013 Differential	-9.7	-18.0	-56.7	-23.5	-56.2	20
2013 Melbourne Ave	32.5	40.0	191.7	123.7	66.1

I will do this tracking for 2016 and for your benefit here is the NAB Challenge:We are tracking well (still mediocre but better) in Clearances, Inside 50s, Contested Possies, and Score with a drop off in uncontested possies. However, when I took out the 4 games we had against Freo, Syd, and Haw we tracked 11 UPs better off (and yes, I took out the commensurate games against those teams from 2014 to measure against).

NAB Ch. Opp Diff	5.3	9.3	27.3	15.0	18.3	7
NAB Ch. Melb Ave	37.3	50.3	210.0	135.3	91.3

All categories are either holding steady at good levels or have improved out of sight.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything...

Let's hope we see some similar numbers when the proper stuff starts on Saturday.

 

Edited March 27, 2016 by rpfc

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Thanks for that rpfc. I think the most important stat this season for Melbourne will be where we create a turnover in our forward half. We have had an emphasis on it in at training and our forward press was noticeable in the NAB challenge games. Are these stats available?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

rpfc, you've made a typo in our average margin for 2015.... you are 10 points off... It does in fact continue the positive trend:

               pf        pa        apf       apa    amarg    ai50f    ai50a    ai50diff    wins    ladder
2013    1455    2691    66.1    122.3    -56.2    40.0    58           -18.0             2    17
2014    1336    1954    60.7    88.8    -28.1    40.5    52.1          -11.6             4    17
2015    1573    2044    71.5    92.9    -21.4    44.4    53.4           -9.0              7    13.0

[Ted Lasso 19,282]

Points for is a very relevant stat for us, we know our defense is pretty good and our midfield is growing, if we could hold an average of around 80-85 points per game ( a two and a half goal improvement ) i think we will see anywhere from 8-13 wins

[demon-4-life 467]

The thing I love about last year is that the following games that we lost, we were in positions to get close to win the games.

1. Round 2 - GWS
2. Round 3 - ADE
3. Round 9 - Port
4. Round 11 - St Kilda
5. Round 15 - Ess

If we address the lapses/capitulations we're going to get close to 10-12 wins this year.  Quite excited by this.

 

 

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

16 minutes ago, demon-4-life said:

The thing I love about last year is that the following games that we lost, we were in positions to get close to win the games.

1. Round 2 - GWS
2. Round 3 - ADE
3. Round 9 - Port
4. Round 11 - St Kilda
5. Round 15 - Ess

If we address the lapses/capitulations we're going to get close to 10-12 wins this year.  Quite excited by this.

 

 

Game against North we weren't far away.

[Wormburner 674]

RFPC = Demonlands own David King.....only better

[hells bells 2,023]

1 hour ago, demon-4-life said:

The thing I love about last year is that the following games that we lost, we were in positions to get close to win the games.

1. Round 2 - GWS
2. Round 3 - ADE
3. Round 9 - Port
4. Round 11 - St Kilda
5. Round 15 - Ess

If we address the lapses/capitulations we're going to get close to 10-12 wins this year.  Quite excited by this.

 

 

Blues too. We kicked 7.13 to 12.6 and were beyond bad that day.  Should never have lost that game. 

[rpfc 28,249]

2 hours ago, Curry & Beer said:

rpfc, you've made a typo in our average margin for 2015.... you are 10 points off... It does in fact continue the positive trend:

               pf        pa        apf       apa    amarg    ai50f    ai50a    ai50diff    wins    ladder
2013    1455    2691    66.1    122.3    -56.2    40.0    58           -18.0             2    17
2014    1336    1954    60.7    88.8    -28.1    40.5    52.1          -11.6             4    17
2015    1573    2044    71.5    92.9    -21.4    44.4    53.4           -9.0              7    13.0

Good spot.

Fixed.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

18 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Good spot.

Fixed.

now that I look again you need to fix the 2015 inside 50 stat too!

in fact clearances is off too!

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2015&type=DA&sby=20&advv=Y

Edited March 23, 2016 by Curry & Beer

[rpfc 28,249]

2 minutes ago, Curry & Beer said:

now that I look again you need to fix the 2015 inside 50 stat too!

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2015&type=DA&sby=20&advv=Y

I have a table I update so I don't know whether I trust my excel sheet or footywire... I will have a look later.

[rpfc 28,249]

On 23/03/2016 at 2:10 PM, rpfc said:

I have a table I update so I don't know whether I trust my excel sheet or footywire... I will have a look later.

Well, your excel sheet was wrong...

It's not like you work in IT or anything...

Fixed in the OP.

2015 looks much better.

[rpfc 28,249]

For this week:

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	-1	-4	2	2

 

Overall, a good start against a really good midfield that bats deeper than ours. We kept up in uncontested possies (233), which allowed us to get 4 goals in 5 minutes of hard running at the start of the last.

[rpfc 28,249]

Sorry, I couldn't do it last week - I just couldn't do it...

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2

 

The obvious outlier (and hopefuly it remains an outlier) was the Ess game.

This young team beat NM in every major stat except for the most important one...

That CP stat is startling but shows what this team can do in the contest.

This year compared to last:

2016 Differential	5.33	1.00	-39.33	8.00	-5.33
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4

[rpfc 28,249]

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3

 

Smashed them in the clearances in the first 45 minutes and then they turned the tables, but it didn't mean much.

Had more UPs in the last quarter too. Shows fitness and workrate. And confidence to run.

This year compared to last:

2016 Differential	2.75	1.00	-25.25	7.00	4.75
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4

[hells bells 2,023]

8 hours ago, rpfc said:

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3

 

Smashed them in the clearances in the first 45 minutes and then they turned the tables, but it didn't mean much.

Had more UPs in the last quarter too. Shows fitness and workrate. And confidence to run.

This year compared to last:

2016 Differential	2.75	1.00	-25.25	7.00	4.75
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4

Out of interest can you take out the Bombers game (assumed outlier) to see how it looks?

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Happy we seem to be generating more Inside 50s (or at least better in terms of differential). I remember in previous years, even when we had good weeks, we were always beaten in the inside 50s, and we relied on a better conversion once inside 50 to get the job done.

Looking at those stats from the North game just makes me shake my head that we didn't win that game. We were the better team all day, dominated all the stats except for the one that counts. 17 more clearances!!! That is amazing against Goldstein and a solid midfield.

[rpfc 28,249]

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3
Rd 5: Rich	3	0	74	11	33	3

 

So clearances were a win again and we drew in the Inside 50s which tells you that while the Tigers were not great - they were not toothless. The UPs win was huge - and as I always say - as the UPs go, so goes the Demon nation (I don't say those exact words but the gist has always been that).

CPs is another tick and, again, impressive. The tigers won more CPs than UPs and yet we still had 11 more than them.

Here is the improvement from last year with the addition of our game average in each stat:

2016 Differential	3.50	1.00	-6.75	9.75	13.00
2016 Melbourne Ave	38.8	54.6	224.4	152.8	101.8
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4
2015 Melbourne Ave	37.6	44.5	203.5	135.2	71.5

Ummm, wow.

At the minute, we are tracking really well, even with the Essendon game in there.

 

 

 

 

[What 18,810]

9 minutes ago, rpfc said:

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3
Rd 5: Rich	3	0	74	11	33	3

 

So clearances were a win again and we drew in the Inside 50s which tells you that while the Tigers were not great - they were not toothless. The UPs win was huge - and as I always say - as the UPs go, so goes the Demon nation (I don't say those exact words but the gist has always been that).

CPs is another tick and, again, impressive. The tigers won more CPs than UPs and yet we still had 11 more than them.

Here is the improvement from last year with the addition of our game average in each stat:

2016 Differential	3.50	1.00	-6.75	9.75	13.00
2016 Melbourne Ave	38.8	54.6	224.4	152.8	101.8
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4
2015 Melbourne Ave	37.6	44.5	203.5	135.2	71.5

Ummm, wow.

At the minute, we are tracking really well, even with the Essendon game in there.

 

 

 

 

The uncontested possessions tell us all we need to know. We didn't work anywhere near hard enough vs the Bombers.

The other 4 games we have been great.  Keep working hard and running both ways and we will continue to be a very good team.

[hells bells 2,023]

We are 4th in Contested Possessions behind Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs.

We are 4th in Clearances behind Adelaide, Sydney and Hawthorn.

 

[Adam The God 30,119]

1 hour ago, hells bells said:

We are 4th in Contested Possessions behind Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs.

We are 4th in Clearances behind Adelaide, Sydney and Hawthorn.

And this year will be about finding that balance between contested and uncontested possessions. The spread and speed in our team already this year is noticeable and that will certainly contribute to an increase in uncontested possessions.

[demon-4-life 467]

9 hours ago, hells bells said:

We are 4th in Contested Possessions behind Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs.

We are 4th in Clearances behind Adelaide, Sydney and Hawthorn.

 

That's all good and well...but we haven't played Sydney, Adelaide, Bulldogs or Hawthorn yet

Don't get me wrong, bloody happy the way the team is tracking.  But lets see how we hold up against one of those sides.

[bandicoot 1,395]

10 hours ago, rpfc said:

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3
Rd 5: Rich	3	0	74	11	33	3

 

So clearances were a win again and we drew in the Inside 50s which tells you that while the Tigers were not great - they were not toothless. The UPs win was huge - and as I always say - as the UPs go, so goes the Demon nation (I don't say those exact words but the gist has always been that).

CPs is another tick and, again, impressive. The tigers won more CPs than UPs and yet we still had 11 more than them.

Here is the improvement from last year with the addition of our game average in each stat:

2016 Differential	3.50	1.00	-6.75	9.75	13.00
2016 Melbourne Ave	38.8	54.6	224.4	152.8	101.8
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4
2015 Melbourne Ave	37.6	44.5	203.5	135.2	71.5

Ummm, wow.

At the minute, we are tracking really well, even with the Essendon game in there.

 

 

 

 

The improvement from 2015 is huge. 20% in I50, 10% UP, 10% CP, 30% score. 

CP is about even from 2015 as this has been a real focus since Ross began. 

If we keep this up then we will have a good season 

[rpfc 28,249]

Let's get this out of the way:

	CL	I50	UPs	CPs	Score	QW
Rd 1: GWS	-6	6	1	-4	2	2
Rd 2: Ess	5	-15	-134	-4	-13	0
Rd 3: NM	17	12	15	32	-5	2
Rd 4: Coll	-5	1	17	4	35	3
Rd 5: Rich	3	0	74	11	33	3
Rd 6: StK	12	-2	-33	-10	-39	2

Beaten in UPs and CPs - that usually means just one thing...

 

And the season:

2016 Differential	4.33	0.40	-12.00	5.80	2.60
2016 Melbourne Ave	39.8	54.7	223.0	150.3	100.8
	CL	I50	Ups	CPs	Score
2015 Differential	-3.1	-9.0	-12.0	-0.9	-21.4
2015 Melbourne Ave	37.6	44.5	203.5	135.2	71.5

 

[dimmy 1,307]

Well constructed, because it shows up where we have improved. DIsposa lefficiency is an area that needs rating. Also some criteria summarising pressure between the Half forward and half back lines. No pressure there means the defence get HAMMERED (like yesterday)