AFL Round 9

[45HG 1,539]

Is the final 8 settled? I think it is save for one side - Port Adelaide.

Collingwood v Sydney

Friday night footy strikes again, I suppose that's why they call it a fixture.

Form: Two big wins in a row v Just going

Form vs each other: Swans won the prelim but Pies had won the previous 11 matches.

Pies' favour: Last week's game against the Cats provided Collingwood with the opportunity it needed. One can't help the feeling the Collingwood needed to play a superior opponent to get the best out of itself. It delivered. Hurt by the absence of Ball, Beams and Shaw, Collingwood nevertheless seem to be gathering a bit of momentum - albeit I don't see them being right at the top. Their smalls remain dangerous and what a handy pickup Sam Dwyer has been.

Swans' favour: Broke the hoodoo last year against the Pies and featuring so many quality mids, Sydney are still a tough team. What they need, however, is a return to their 22 players all-in mentality. It's what got them up last year and it's been lacking this year. The Swans have lost to the two real quality sides of the comp but rolled a side who, in North Melbourne, I'd rate as only slightly behind Collingwood. Much will depend on Jetta and the run he may provide coupled with intensity at the footy. If it's anything like their game against the Hawks they may as well not show up.

Verdict: Tough one - it will depend on which side turns up. Collingwood's mids are finding form and they'll love Friday night footy in front of the army. Sydney just haven't reached the peaks of last year. Last week they were lucky to be 27 points up and woeful to give it up. They aren't travelling well but, like the Pies last week, may view this as the challenge they need to get up.

My tip: Pies by 5 points

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Form: Crash v Crash hot

Form vs each other: Cats have won the last 7 (only one of these at AAMI).

Power's favour: There has been a trend this year of sides who have had consecutive wins failing twice in a row. Port were rolled by North and then flogged. Essendon were rolled by the Cats and then flogged. Could Port bring Geelong down again after their loss? Instinct says no, but if they can revive the confidence of earlier in the season and return to hitting the scoreboard they just might.

Cats' favour: The return of Stevie J is a big one. He's an enigma and has been a dynamo for them in the midfield this season. He plays last week - they win. Geelong's best players all enjoy playing Port Adelaide and they're all, also, in handy form. Their experience and knack of winning will be an important factor in this game.

Verdict: I view this game as closer than some for a few of the reasons listed above. I've stated previously that Port beat up on trash and their record is overly flattering - but the fact remains that at home, with a run-on, they can be tricky to handle. Two sides who hate first halves, it'll be interesting to see how they come out of the blocks. Geelong, however, with their nouse and experience will be too classy for the Power and will pull away to get the points.

My tip: Cats by 26

GWS v West Coast

Form: Trash v Blessed

Form vs each other: West Coast 1-0 by 81

Giants' favour: Plucky last week? Still smashed but surely they'll be steeling themselves for a good showing at home? Some very handy Eagles are out with injuries and if they're not on song, the Giants fiesty mids could strike.

Eagles' favour: They need a win. A big win. Sitting 11th on the ladder, WC need to do some damage to opposing teams in terms of % and this is the perfect chance. WS' form has followed a vague up-down pattern. Up last week, crashing down this week.

Verdict: West Coast will be looking for blood but may not have the staying power to do an Adelaide. At home I'd be tipping 110+, away from home, not by quite so much.

My tip: Eagles by 83

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Form: Plucky v Trash

Form vs each other: Saints have won the last 8

Saints' favour: They're playing the Dogs. They regain Hayes and have enough quality on their list to bury a team when the offering it there. This week, it's there.

Dogs' favour: Not a lot. Some promising youngsters but it's hard to go past the dropping of Cross and the absence of Cooney. Will struggle to win enough ball. Won't be classy enough to use it up forward.

Verdict: I've been on the Dogs' back for a while. Coincidently, the heat has been put upon them in recent times. This will likely put their backs up early, but the Saints will put on a clinic afterwards.

My tip: Saints by 63

Brisbane v Carlton

Form: Decent v Just going

Form vs each other: Blues with the last 4

Lions' favour: They'll be up and about following their win on the weekend. Brissie adore their home ground and they have some hard-nosed midfielders that could well get firing if the crowd is behind them.

Blues' favour: They have enough class and talent to roll the Lions. Recent form vs the Lions indicates good match ups and the return of Gibbs is a good one for them.

Verdict: I don't rate Carlton. I see them as soft-bellied outsiders who only enjoy the easy footy. No backline to speak of and many forwards who don't put in enough hard yards. If Brisbane turn up to play, a boilover is well on the cards here. The crowd behind them and some goals from Rich and co. and I think they'll put Carlton away. Show up like they did against the Swans and they're no hope.

My tip: Lions by 11

Richmond v Essendon

Intrigue thy name is Richmond v Essendon.

Handy ins, a bit of form, a bit to play for, a bit of arrogance and a bit of attacking flair make for an even match-up and a hard to read game.

Form: Good v dwindling

Tigers' favour: Ball winning mids who use the footy well, spear-headed by an ace forward, help the Tigers' tick the score along consistently. Continuously they have periods of "Richmond" footy - where intensity dissipates and interest dissolves.

Bombers' favour: They'll be up for this game. Early in the season their intensity was second to none. Recent weeks, after their ANZAC triumph, have seen their form and intensity drop considerably. This will be the game where the Bombers get back to attacking the footy and driving through the middle. A couple of handy ins and back at the G will be good news for the Bombers.

Verdict: Essendon's two games at the G have yeilded 46 and 148 points wins. They love the ground and will be up and about. Richmond are 3-2 at the ground but two of the wins have been against trash and the one win was mildly lucky. If Essendon aren't up to scratch, however, Richmond will be there to pounce. I feel that the Bombers tick a few more boxes but it'll depend on whether they turn up. Last year, Richmond were the better side but Essendon got the cherries.

My tip: Essendon by 17

Hawthorn v Gold Coast

The anti-intrigue

Form: Unreal v Decent

Form vs each other: Hawks 3-0

Hawks' favour: Really?

Suns' favour: Gold Coast youngsters are starting to show the talent that will make them a super-power in years to come. The absence of Bennell and Smith will hurt as leg speed around the ground, especially from half back, can be used to hurt the Hawks. Ball-speed, however, is more important and quality users of the footy like O'Meara will be a gift that keeps giving for the franchise.

Verdict: The young Suns have been up for a while and they've been inflated for a while. They've got some wins, but only against trash. This match will be a reversal of their previous trip to the Home of Football.

My tip: Hawks by 73

North Melbourne v Adelaide

Form: Cracking/desperately unlucky vs hitting their straps

Form vs each other: North with the last 3

Roos' favour: No team, not even the most unfortunate, could possibly continue this run of down and out luck. 3 times they've been better than top 8 teams only to come away without the chocolates. Last week they were robbed and with 9 days break they will return to the ground they love with fire in their bellies. The fire resides because losing this match will cook this season for them. They won the corresponding fixture easily last year despite being comparatively down on form and they'll be too good again on Sunday.

My tip: Roos by 24

Fremantle v Melbourne

Form: Working the system v disgusting

Form vs each other: Freo 3 of the last 4 and the last 7 at home by an average of about 40.

Dockers' favour: They're clicking under Lyon and showed, in 15 minutes of blistering footy, that they can score when they want (further proof lies in the first term versus Collingwood). The previous 3 and a half quarters also showed that they can outplay quality opposition away from home. All of that is about the opposite of what they face this weekend. They'll get the chance to experiment with their forwardline and will probably get lots of practice.

Demons' favour: A spirited performance against the Tigers has set the bar for the Dees for the rest of the season. The return of Jack Watts adds some much needed polish but the Dees hate to travel.

Verdict: The Dees' shocking use of the footy will be exposed mightily against the hard-pressing Dockers side. Melbourne have a tendency to suck teams down to their level and, potentially, a scoring-wise-disinterested Freo side could be the next to fall. The problem for Melbourne is that, even better intensity will not equal scoring opportunities. Dawes will be a handy foil for Clark but won't be able to do much on his own. The Dees will struggle to get it into 50 - let alone score often from those entries. The Dockers will romp it in.

My tip: Freo by 73

Game of the Round

Richmond v Essendon

Thrashing of the Round

Hawks/Eagles/Dockers/Saints

Toughest to Pick

Richmond v Essendon

Upset of the Round

Lions

Closest tip last week

Missed Crows by 5 (damn Saad!)

[45HG 1,539]

Indeed, it was the game the Swans needed (Pies hate being favourites? Bring on QB!)

And that whole Geelong hate starts. Well. Hrm.

[BrisbaneDemon 1,494]

Have a look at young Ollie Wines legs, they're bloody tree trunks!!

[45HG 1,539]

Have a look at young Ollie Wines legs, they're bloody tree trunks!!

Must've been raised on Farmer's Union.

[P-man 13,168]

There is no player I hate more than Lindsay Thomas but he is on fire this year. Already has 4 and it's a couple of minutes into the second quarter.