Dawes v Hogan

Yes there are threads about Dawes and about Hogan but is there a thread that compares one against the other? (edit: if there is one, admin please merge)

1. Dawes = experience, body size, premiership player, ready to go. Cost est. pick 13
   
2. Hogan, could be anything, good size, likely talent, will not play until 2014. Cost est. pick 3
   

Big Mitch with Dawes and the other developing talls (Watts, Howe, Fitzpatrick) Is my preferred option without putting down option 2. Recruiting mids (JV) and those selected with picks 3 & 4 that can feed our tall fwds is low risk with a reward.

Using pick 3 to recruit Hogan is a high risk high reward play.

Where are we at as a group? I’d prefer the low risk with reward than the high risk with potential to fail. Watts was a jet as an 18 year old but he hasn’t met the unfair expectation – I’m scared that Hogan will be the same.

Half empty or half full.

Thoughts?

I've always been a bit concerned about the idea of drafting a 17 year old that can't play for a year. Draft positions change dramatically in 12 months, Butcher was rated as one of our top contenders for no 1 but he fell much later and KPP take even longer to develop.

That said, I must admit I am not up with how Hogan is tracking and I have heard that his body size is completely different to what Watts was at the same time. As long as he thrives on body contact and contested marking, he could well be worth it.

I don't really see how it's up for a choice between the two?

We're not thinking of trading pick 3 for Chris Dawes so we could, potentially, have both.

I think we will have both.

We can get both and we should. Pick 3 for Hogan and pick 20, on trade pick 20 for Dawes.

With Dawes and Clark next year our forward line becomes more potent straight away and then when Hogan arrives in 2014 we have a dangerous attack (hopefully).

Watts was a jet as an 18 year old but he hasn’t met the unfair expectation – I’m scared that Hogan will be the same.

Play it safe and we will have a nice side that will win 12 games a year and never make a prelim. I'd rather crash and burn going for glory.

We should be able to fit in both. Yes hogan may not live up to as high as the expectations of him are but he should still be a super forward anyway as he is tall, strong, fast and a top mark. The deal is said to include pick 20 from GWS too so If we do get Hogan that would most likely mean Dawes at pick 20 and he would be our 3rd tall and to have him as a 3rd tall is a pretty damn good outcome!

We will still have pick 4 for another mid which quite possibly will be wines which would be great as we would have the 2 best inside mids in this years draft and we do need strong inside mids to help out Jones. Toumpaus would be nice but chances are he will be snapped up by the time our 4th pick arrives. Pick 13 could be used to pick up an outside runner or a small forward(kennedy). With our later picks we would be flexible anough to trade these off as with dawes (pick 20), also possibly ray(45).

I don't really see how it's up for a choice between the two?

We're not thinking of trading pick 3 for Chris Dawes so we could, potentially, have both.

Do we need both? I think in terms of role it probably is a choice between the two.

My answer to the question: a player who has (say) 60%* probably of a being a star, vs a player who you know will never be one? I'd have thought that the downside risk with Hogan is that he turns out to be a similar player to Dawes, and the upside is that he becomes so much better. If choosing between the two it's a no-brainer for me.

II say all this without ever having seen Hogan play, not that I think that matters.

* Just an arbitrary number. I make no claim that this is the actual probability of Hogan becoming a star. I'm using an arbitrary number to make a point. I don't know the actual real probability of Hogan becoming a star.

I'll take Hogan and leave Dawes thank. We would be paying slight overs for Hogan vs. massive overs for Dawes and only one of them has a chance at being a star.

Dawes v Hogan

Yes there are threads about Dawes and about Hogan but is there a thread that compares one against the other? (edit: if there is one, admin please merge)

1. Dawes = experience, body size, premiership player, ready to go. Cost est. pick 13
   
2. Hogan, could be anything, good size, likely talent, will not play until 2014. Cost est. pick 3
   

Big Mitch with Dawes and the other developing talls (Watts, Howe, Fitzpatrick) Is my preferred option without putting down option 2. Recruiting mids (JV) and those selected with picks 3 & 4 that can feed our tall fwds is low risk with a reward.

Using pick 3 to recruit Hogan is a high risk high reward play.

Where are we at as a group? I’d prefer the low risk with reward than the high risk with potential to fail. Watts was a jet as an 18 year old but he hasn’t met the unfair expectation – I’m scared that Hogan will be the same.

Half empty or half full.

Thoughts?

Dawes v Hogan

Yes there are threads about Dawes and about Hogan but is there a thread that compares one against the other? (edit: if there is one, admin please merge)

1. Dawes = experience, body size, premiership player, ready to go. Cost est. pick 13
   
2. Hogan, could be anything, good size, likely talent, will not play until 2014. Cost est. pick 3
   

Big Mitch with Dawes and the other developing talls (Watts, Howe, Fitzpatrick) Is my preferred option without putting down option 2. Recruiting mids (JV) and those selected with picks 3 & 4 that can feed our tall fwds is low risk with a reward.

Using pick 3 to recruit Hogan is a high risk high reward play.

Where are we at as a group? I’d prefer the low risk with reward than the high risk with potential to fail. Watts was a jet as an 18 year old but he hasn’t met the unfair expectation – I’m scared that Hogan will be the same.

Half empty or half full.

Thoughts?

Correct me if I am wring wrong, but hasn't Hogan been playing adult footy for a year or two, and acquitting himself well, and isn't he already well developed physically? (I have never seen him). The risk would seem to be less than we took with for example Cook. We have all seen Dawes' strengths and weaknesses. Probably rather than going for both we should add to our midfeild stocks - one can never have too many there, if they are good enough.

Prefer Jesse Hogan over Dawes. Hogan is a very good mark, and his aerobic ability is far away better than Dawes. Dawes is a man mountain but he has been off the boil in 2012.

Agree we can have both with the :

GWS gets pick 3 = Mfc gets Hogan and pick 20.

Coll'wood gets pick 20 = Mfc gets Dawes.

Hogan is a completely different beast to Watts. I understand what you're saying with guys like Darling and Butcher falling down the draft order but at the end of the day they will be still be gun forwards for a long time so I have no issues with trading 3 for Hogan as we still have 4 for another midfielder.

If we get Hogan though definitely do not want Dawes, would not be required. Would be hoping we can offload Cook as well for a later pick we could use to upgrade a rookie possibly.

EDIT: Hogan's physique together with his performance at Draft Combine in 3k time trial and beep test as well as his attack on the ball and marking ability indicate he will be a very very good player once he hits the AFL. Only query would be on his goalkicking technique but give us a year to work on him before 2014 and I'm sure we can work out some kinks (though to be honest despite his kicking style which seems a bit awkward based on the extremely limited footage I've seen he still appears quite accurate so maybe not an issue).

Also does anyone know if Hogan would come over to Vic to play for Casey next year or will he stay in Perth to finish his schooling? (I assume he's in year 12 next year?)