I thought I'd go early on this with some random thoughts:

• we start the game as outsiders. The bookies have us at $4.00 to win. What were the odds when Essendon recently beat Geelong?

• Hawthorn has beaten us seven times in a row, is coming off a bye and has some handy ins. We have a #1 & #4 draft pick out.

• it's raining.

• I don't know how to define "season defining" but this might be one of those games. A win would not put us back in the eight (unless it's by 15 goals+, an unlikely occurrence) but it would stretch out our hopes and expectations of a finals appearance over the next few weeks.

• lose the game and we can concentrate on discussing other topics such as what Mike Sheahan or Jay Clark wrote about Tom Scully on any given day or how the coach thinks we need to become more competitive. Fine, just as long as the sponsor's logo is kept in the accompany picture and quotes from Demetriou are kept down to one liners.

• remember to tape Future Stars to catch the Jack Trengove interview. How far into it will someone ask the inevitable question?

• big day for my grandson. They're taking team photos of his Auskick group today. I hope he remembers the first football tip of his career which I gave him a few weeks ago, about keeping his socks up. I'm taking him to today's game. He was just one year old when we last beat the Hawks and oddly enough can't remember it. Afterwards, we're going to the club sponsors function where he threatens to confront a certain player about his footballing future. I've warned him off doing that but I'm not sure if he'll listen to me. Perhaps it's time to give him the my second tip of his football career?

• yesterday, I spoke briefly with a journo who supports the Hawks. He didn't sound worried but pointed out that we usually do better against them the second time we play them in a season. Frankly, it's something I hadn't thought of previously but I think he's on to something and on that basis - my final dot point.

• Melbourne by 8 points.

Wow. You've built a strong case for a Dees win there WJ.

I posted the below content last year, but with the spooky sensation that "history is made to be repeated" I feel like it deserves it's run this year also! so here it is again . . . . . . . .

As much as I hate to say it, every time we come up against the Hawks they seem to have some injuries or question marks over key players, and every time they pull our pants down and produce the belt.

I will be there pumped as ever but . . . every now and then that dreadful feeling of impending doom settles over your more fanciful visions of flawless victory. It's the haunting familiarity seeping through your veins that renders you paralysed in a state of pre-emptive deja-vu. What follows is the acceptance of an inevitable disaster that unceremoniously hurtles us back to the comfort of Demonland to dissect what may have been.

This I fear is one such time. . . . . . . . . AGAIN!!!!!!

TIP FROM THE HEART : Dees by 7

TIP FROM THE BRAIN : Hawks by 46 and Cyril to kick 5

Although I did not have high hopes of a win which team does the weather favour? You could argue Hawthorns bigger bodied midfield coming off the bye. However I would not think slippery conditions will suit Hawthorns chip n charge game style.

I just hope to see consistent application today and smart wet weather footy from our boys and the result may look after itself.

I was there in there in Round 20 last year vs the Hawks and in the 1st 1/4 when it was dry we were dominating but not on the scoreboard. As the rain rolled in the game changed dramatically in the next 90 minutes or so of footy we got dominated and ultimately it ended our finals charge and we lost the match. Now seeing as though its raining today and the fact that we lost last year because we had weaker bodies at the stoppages and got smashed at the clearances I can't see us winning today. That slight hope of a win that I had this morning has just faded.

I was there in there in Round 20 last year vs the Hawks and in the 1st 1/4 when it was dry we were dominating but not on the scoreboard. As the rain rolled in the game changed dramatically in the next 90 minutes or so of footy we got dominated and ultimately it ended our finals charge and we lost the match. Now seeing as though its raining today and the fact that we lost last year because we had weaker bodies at the stoppages and got smashed at the clearances I can't see us winning today. That slight hope of a win that I had this morning has just faded.

Preparing myself for a 10 goal loss.

Easy to make excuses.

Weaker bodies at the stoppages?

Moloney, Jones, Trengove, Sylvia, McKenzie. All hard bodies. Expect Dunn in the middle at times, as well as Tapscott.

Their mids will be Mitchell, Hodge, Sewell, Lewis. Classier, but nothing the above can't handle.

Excuses are for losers.

Let your Demon out.

Wow. You've built a strong case for a Dees win there WJ.

Correct. It takes decades or research to come up with these things but I'm confident, as always, of my prediction

Easy to make excuses.

Weaker bodies at the stoppages?

Moloney, Jones, Trengove, Sylvia, McKenzie. All hard bodies. Expect Dunn in the middle at times, as well as Tapscott.

Their mids will be Mitchell, Hodge, Sewell, Lewis. Classier, but nothing the above can't handle.

Excuses are for losers.

Let your Demon out.

To call Trengove and McKenzie hard bodied is seriously kidding yourself. Am not making excuses just being a realist.

I think a 20-point loss.

9 point win with some Watts / Jurrah magic!

He's not wrong.

It used to be the other way round, we'd win first up then lose the second.

But '08 we lost by 104 then by 19 in a close one that the umpires robbed us in (as always!).

'10 they beat us by 56 which should have been 100+, then they beat us by 20 when the rain killed us (as always!).

On a side note, I'm going to try my best not to blame Darwin. We had the bye the week before, so we should have been prepared. Teams have won after playing in Darwin before. Sure, we were flat last year after Darwin, but that was with one less day's rest.

Hope we win but doubtful. Hawks will probably win by 6-7 goals.

Jurrah Out !!!

Just Heard on 3aw Jurrah not playing today. Not told what the cause is.

On the back of that I'll take Hawthorn to beat the line easily.

DemonsHQ Liam Jurrah a late withdrawal, replaced by Jamie Bennell #afldeeshawks

Great. Should have stayed in bed.

Nice touch of Melbourne as host to put on a tribute to the late Hawthorn premiership coach Allan Jeans.

Now they can return the favour by conceding the first five or six goals.

Jamie Bennell is Kermit the frog

Watching the two teams line up for the minutes silence and I had the impression that we were as big as them in body size. Of course, outs like Morton, Scully and Jurrah help.

9 point win with some Watts / Jurrah magic!

....jump out of the stands to slot the winner!

Have we seriously only touched it 6 times in 7 mintues?

I thought I'd go early on this with some random thoughts:

• big day for my grandson. They're taking team photos of his Auskick group today. I hope he remembers the first football tip of his career which I gave him a few weeks ago, about keeping his socks up. I'm taking him to today's game. He was just one year old when we last beat the Hawks and oddly enough can't remember it. Afterwards, we're going to the club sponsors function where he threatens to confront a certain player about his footballing future. I've warned him off doing that but I'm not sure if he'll listen to me. Perhaps it's time to give him the my second tip of his football career?

I envy you WJ.

There are many good things about living in Bangkok, but not being there to give my grandson such important advice is not one of them !

Nice to see we are switched on today.