Not quite 'finals or bust' but if we go backwards or tread water without clear signs of improvement, he's gone.

11 wins - earns him another contract.

9 or 10 - no guarantees and things will depend on the coaching landscape

8 and under - clean out the desk.

My optimism has been tempered after what I have seen over the pre-season.

Spot on - time to step up - no more excuses - see John Ralph's comments in today's H-S B)

Average score for:

2008: 74

2009: 77.5

2010: 84.7

Average score against:

2008: 118.3

2009: 103.9

2010: 89.6

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

3rd quarter percentage:

2008: 61.83

2009: 62.58

2010: 131.63

Without going to too much trouble - first quarter performances would be interesting - too often the game is gone by quarter time

Without going to too much trouble - first quarter performances would be interesting - too often the game is gone by quarter time

Given that our first half percentage is 94.5, it suggests we're in the game at half-time.

(Of course, we could have a first half percentage of 100 after having a bunch of games where we doubled the opposition's score in the first half, and had ours doubled in other games, but my memory of 2010 was that it was generally closer than that).

I think the season holds some more pain - particularly for the impatient. Bailey has beeen emphasising the importance of fast ball movement and kicking through the zone. It's hard for us to do this with Bartram, Macdonald and Rivers all in the starting back 6. I love Clint and Joel's contested ball winning but their disposal let's our structure down. Strauss, Blease and Tapscott have all been restricted by injury and are virtually 1st year players - they can't compete at the the level Clint and Joel can, similar for Jamie Bennell with his light body shape - it takes a 80 games to get to that level. We've got some structural problems that are going to stop us really progressing until we get a different mix into the side but we need to do this while mainaining competitiveness.

I think it's more about the way the team plays. If improvement can be seen in the playing group, a quality game plan that will result in sucess in the near future can be been seen, and smart matchups and matchday coaching, then Bailey stays.

If the same problems that have been around for the last few years (poor clearence work, poor kicking out, allowing the opposition to easily clear the ball from the Melbourne 50, and players looking confused and panic when they get the ball in the backline), then time to look for someone else.

I think the season holds some more pain - particularly for the impatient. Bailey has beeen emphasising the importance of fast ball movement and kicking through the zone. It's hard for us to do this with Bartram, Macdonald and Rivers all in the starting back 6. I love Clint and Joel's contested ball winning but their disposal let's our structure down. Strauss, Blease and Tapscott have all been restricted by injury and are virtually 1st year players - they can't compete at the the level Clint and Joel can, similar for Jamie Bennell with his light body shape - it takes a 80 games to get to that level. We've got some structural problems that are going to stop us really progressing until we get a different mix into the side but we need to do this while mainaining competitiveness.

It's more the ignorant.

I'm impatient, but I understand why there will be setbacks and why we very likely will not progress like a lot seem to expect we will.

Those not able to have the same understanding will be causing me pain.

I expect Warnock, Jones, Bartram, Bate, Dunn, Petterd, Green, Moloney, Rivers, Macdonald and Newton to play plenty of football this year - we need their experience to be competitive - but only maybe 1/3rd of them will play in an MFC premiership side.

Without going to too much trouble - first quarter performances would be interesting - too often the game is gone by quarter time

First Quarter percentage:

2008: 56.37

2009: 72.4

2010: 84.4

First Quarter percentage:

2008: 56.37

2009: 72.4

2010: 84.4

Every single KPI is improving under Bailey, and people want to put him to the sword......Ridiculous.

Thanks for the stat 45. those figures are so strong.

This was done pretty quickly, so may be off a bit.

Half time margins:

2008

Up (4)

Down by less than 10 (1)

Down by 10-20 (3)

Down by 21-30 (1)

Down by 31+ (13)

2009

Up (5)

Down by less than 10 (6)

Down by 10-20 (1)

Down by 21-30 (4)

Down by 30+ (6)

2010

Up (6)

Down by less than 10 (6) * 1 even

Down by 10-20 (4)

Down by 21-30 (0)

Down by 30+ (6)

Full time margins:

2008:

Up by less than 10 (2)

Up by 10-30 (0)

Up by 31+ (1)

Down by less than 10 (0)

Down by 10-30 (6)

Down by 31+ (13)

2009:

Up by less than 10 (1)

Up by 10-30 (2)

Up by 31+ (1)

Down by less than 10 (3)

Down by 10-30 (3)

Down by 31+ (12)

2010:

Up by less than 10 (2)

Up by 10-30 (3)

Up by 31+ (3)

Down by less than 10 (2) * One even

Down by 10-30 (6)

Down by 31+ (5)

First quarters won:

2008: 5 (56.37 %)

2009: 8 (72.4 %)

2010: 8 (84.43 %)

Second quarters won:

2008: 2 (49.19 %)

2009: 8 (76.59 %)

2010: 9 (86.67 %)

Third quarters won:

2008: 7 (61.83%)

2009: 6 (62.58%)

2010: 11 (131.63 %)

Fourth quarters won:

2008: 9 (82.52 %)

2009: 10 (89.59%)

2010: 8 (81.4 %)

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

Second halves percentage:

2008: 72

2009: 75

2010: 105

Margins at half time: (this was done pretty quickly, so may be off a bit)

2008

Up (4)

Down by less than 10 (1)

Down by 10-20 (3)

Down by 21-30 (1)

Down by 31+ (13)

2009

Up (5)

Down by less than 10 (6)

Down by 10-20 (1)

Down by 21-30 (4)

Down by 30+ (6)

2010

Up (6)

Down by less than 10 (6) * 1 even

Down by 10-20 (4)

Down by 21-30 (0)

Down by 30+ (6)

2nd Quarters are going to be crucial this year aern't they...Many times over the last 3 years Opposition teams cracked our defence in the 2nd Q

45 i want you to be in the Box with Bails....Feed him these stats!!!!

I'll say it again: grunt. We still ain't got enough and will continue to get muscled off the footy and struggle to get our hands on the agate in matches against physically strong sides.

I expect Warnock, Jones, Bartram, Bate, Dunn, Petterd, Green, Moloney, Rivers, Macdonald and Newton to play plenty of football this year - we need their experience to be competitive - but only maybe 1/3rd of them will play in an MFC premiership side.

Perceptive comment Old. Its a young list at MFC and we just cant "play the kids" en masse.

Its a young list at MFC and we just cant "play the kids" en masse.

The only players with 80 games or more that I can ink in are Jamar, Davey and Sylvia. Green is going to get too old before the young players get old enough. There's a lot of games to get into a lot of players ...

The only players with 80 games or more that I can ink in are Jamar, Davey and Sylvia. Green is going to get too old before the young players get old enough. There's a lot of games to get into a lot of players ...

To get a lot of games into them will take a few years (stating the obvious - but it needs to be drummed in)

ie. 3 years ~ 66 games; 3 years = 2013/2014.

* "~" = approx.

The only players with 80 games or more that I can ink in are Jamar, Davey and Sylvia. Green is going to get too old before the young players get old enough. There's a lot of games to get into a lot of players ...

Based on the fact that he just had a career best season at the age of 29, I can see Green playing in 2013/2014. Not saying he'll definitely be around, but I don't believe that by any means it's a long shot.

To get a lot of games into them will take a few years (stating the obvious - but it needs to be drummed in)

ie. 3 years ~ 66 games; 3 years = 2013/2014.

I don't envy Dean Bailey - as I posted above injuries and development of Blease, Strauss and Tapscott have put this further out in the backline - who are you gonna play - Bartram and Macdonald or these guys? Hell Grimes has hardly got on the park too and he's a fixture in there. Bailey was on the radio again this morning talking about kicking through the zone. God help us!

It hasn't been quite so bad in the middle because Scully and Trengove stepped straight up last year and started building experience - but both are injured now, so is McKenzie and Gysberts has that back injury. It means Moloney and Jones remain the prime-movers in there.

I think we did the right thing to move Bruce and Junior on in these respective areas and make it more necessary to bring through youth but there's a short-term cost.

More than half the players in our next premiership side have played less than 30 games.

I forecast pain.

This year = 10-12 wins with some wins we didn't expect and some losses that make us angry.

Jetta, Bennell, Blease, Tapscott, Strauss and especially Gysberts have to be given game time. Our midfield will be OK when all are fit and play games week after week together. But our back six is great in getting the ball; we just can't get through the press zone relying on the skills of Bartram, MacDonald etc... We give oppositions the ability to easily re-nter inside 50 by un-pressured turnovers. We need backmen who have grunt AND skill, more like Chip and Grimes.

I want finals. We may make it. We have a great list. But we need the skills of Bennell, Jetta, Strauss etc... moving through our backline to stop the unforced errors.

.

Edited March 23, 201114 yr by Maldonboy38

Agree with Maldonboy38.

The wise heads at MFC HQ will stay focused on the goal which is forging a premiership team to have a tilt in and beyond 2013. This will see the continued development of those players who are seen to be part of that team even if it means short term pain (i.e. missing finals). This will see alot of pressure on "marginal" players who may not have further development potential as the club tries a new kid in their position. Bate, Dunn, Bartram, MacDonald, Warnock are going to have to have great seasons in 2011 to hold the kids Maldon mentioned out of their position in the team. Next year as Cook, Gawn, Lawrence, etc... mature, other players will be pushed.

The goal is to have the best list battle hardened in two years (2013) when we should be ready. If the pressure of blooding the next generation forces the "marginals" to excel and those Next Gens that force their way in are what we hope (Tapscott, Blease, Gysberts, Maric) then we'll have a good year. If the "Marginals" wilt and the next gen don't mature quickly we'll have a classic "development" year. Either way the goal is building a team for 2013 not 2011...

That said I am excited about this year as the dynamic I described above can create momentum and funny things can happen...

Bring on the Swans!

Carn the Dees!

I don't envy Dean Bailey - as I posted above injuries and development of Blease, Strauss and Tapscott have put this further out in the backline - who are you gonna play - Bartram and Macdonald or these guys? Hell Grimes has hardly got on the park too and he's a fixture in there. Bailey was on the radio again this morning talking about kicking through the zone. God help us!

It hasn't been quite so bad in the middle because Scully and Trengove stepped straight up last year and started building experience - but both are injured now, so is McKenzie and Gysberts has that back injury. It means Moloney and Jones remain the prime-movers in there.

I think we did the right thing to move Bruce and Junior on in these respective areas and make it more necessary to bring through youth but there's a short-term cost.

More than half the players in our next premiership side have played less than 30 games.

I forecast pain.

I hear you. My immediate concerns still remain the midfield, the figures from last year tell the true story and as I've stated elsewhere in other threads that without the retired Junior - and now a fit McKenzie for nearly a third of the season at least, as well as Scully now out for 4 weeks - our clearances at stoppages will be left to the 'prime-movers' - as you have made mention.

On the bright side, it will hopefully quicken the development the midfield youngsters like Bail, Jetta, Trengove, Gysberts in the absence of others.

Agree on Bruce & Junior moving on, we'll notice their absence short term but it will allow others to be given a chance to step up to the plate at AFL.

I know plenty of people aren't prepared to face it, but it's just a year of "getting games into the kids". Even players that plenty of people are pinning their hopes on (e.g. Grimes, Jurrah) have yet to play 30 games.

By definition, experience takes time.

I'll say it again: grunt. We still ain't got enough and will continue to get muscled off the footy and struggle to get our hands on the agate in matches against physically strong sides.

I agree completely we are still not fierce enough!

If Essendon can play with physical strength surely Melbourne can

Watched the Collingwood game once more on the weekend. Our attack and tackling and pressure on the man was outstanding and we looked good and almost got a result.

I will be happy this year if we show that every game but still lose It has been missing in Melbourne for too long a time and we will not win games or flags until the whole team approaches every game every week with that team pressure. I really hope the team is up for it this year and without even thinking of stats we will begin to win some games against teams like North and Hawthorn>The supporters will also have something to admire